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MPC Has Been the Second-Worst Performer among Its Peers

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Jun. 5 2019, Published 11:34 a.m. ET

Marathon Petroleum’s performance

Marathon Petroleum (MPC) stock has been the second-biggest underperformer among its peers in the past month. Phillips 66 (PSX) and Delek US Holdings (DK) stocks have fallen 7.7% and 11.1%, respectively, in the past month.

HollyFrontier (HFC) and Valero Energy (VLO) have fallen 16.3% and 18.4%, respectively—less than MPC.

Marathon Petroleum stock has fallen 19.7% since May 3, 2019. In comparison, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY), the broad market indicator, has fallen 5.7% in the same period.

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Marathon Petroleum’s moving averages

On May 3, Marathon Petroleum’s ten-day moving average stood 1.3% below its 30-day moving average. The fall in its stock has affected its ten-day moving average, which has fallen 17.8% in the past month. Thus, the gap between MPC’s ten-day moving average and its 30-day moving average has widened. MPC’s ten-day moving average now stands 9.4% below its 30-day moving average.

Why has Marathon Petroleum stock fallen?

The fall in Marathon Petroleum stock could be the result of lower equity markets and its narrower differential indicators.

In the current quarter, Marathon Petroleum’s prompt sour differential has narrowed by 75% year-over-year to $2.0 per barrel. MPC’s prompt sweet differential has also narrowed 19% to $2.6 per barrel in the quarter. Dollar-per-barrel shifts in the sour differential and the sweet differential alter MPC’s yearly net income by $450 million and $370 million, respectively. Thus, these lower indicators could affect MPC’s refining earnings in the second quarter.

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