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AK Steel’s Q4 Earnings: What’s the Word on Wall Street?

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Jan. 24 2019, Updated 2:45 p.m. ET

AK Steel’s fourth-quarter earnings

In the previous article, we looked at AK Steel’s (AKS) fourth-quarter revenue estimates and stacked them against the company’s guidance. In this article, we’ll see what analysts are projecting for AK Steel’s EBITDA and EPS.

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Analysts’ estimates

Analysts polled by Thomson Reuters expect AK Steel to post adjusted EBITDA of $131 million in the fourth quarter. It posted adjusted EBITDA of $161 million in the third quarter and $69 million in the fourth quarter of 2017. 

AK Steel is expected to post adjusted EPS of $0.11 in the fourth quarter compared to $0.21 in the third quarter. As we previously noted, the fourth quarter is typically weak for US steel companies such as U.S. Steel Corporation (X) and Nucor (NUE).

Guidance

Analysts expect AK Steel’s adjusted EBITDA margin to contract by 160 basis points sequentially in the fourth quarter. During its third-quarter earnings call, AK Steel said that it expected its fourth-quarter adjusted EBITDA margin to contract by 150 basis points compared to the third quarter. AK Steel is also expected to have renegotiated some of its automotive contracts in the fourth quarter. It hadn’t sealed these contracts as of October 29, when it released its third-quarter earnings results. However, an expected increase in contract pricing was part of AK Steel’s fourth-quarter guidance.

AK Steel’s commentary on automotive contracts has been somewhat bearish for the last few quarters. In the next article, we’ll see what the market expects from AK Steel’s fourth-quarter earnings call.

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