BTC iShares China Large-Cap ETF

An aging population is likely to keep global economic growth muted in the years to come. This is primarily because the dynamics of the population are rapidly changing.

On May 21, 2015, HP (HPQ) officially announced the sale of its 51% share in H3C Technologies to China-based Tsinghua Holdings subsidiary, Unisplendour.

China (FXI) exported 5.56 million metric tons of steel in December, a yearly fall of 1.9%.

Many companies are shifting their focus toward AI, which has been increasing the competition for NVIDIA (NVDA).

With about five weeks remaining in the trade truce, Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross said yesterday that the US was “miles and miles” away from a trade deal with China.

On February 14, NVIDIA stock rose as high as 9% in the after-hours session. The company expects strong growth in the second half of 2019.

Micron (MU) can’t pass on the cost of these tariffs to customers, as it operates in a price-sensitive memory chip market.

Nvidia (NVDA) took the stage in the past three months by launching a series of Pascal GPUs aimed at high-end and mainstream customers. Nvidia’s fiscal 3Q17 earnings are expected to be released in the first week of November.

Cisco Systems’ (CSCO) Switching business revenue has fallen 4.0% YoY (year-over-year) to $10.5 billion in the first nine months of fiscal 2017.

Previously in this series, we saw that after seven months of the trade war and failed negotiations, the United States and China (FXI) are finally showing some concrete commitments.

On a year-over-year basis, China’s industrial production increased to 6.0% in May 2016. That’s the same pace as April.

Though the recent tensions in the South China Sea seem to have gathered much attention, the markets don’t seem to have factored in the conflict.

China’s (FXI) smartphone market saw its first annual decline in 2017, according to research firm Canalys. Total shipments declined 4.0% in 2017 to 459.0 million units.

In some aspects, 2018 looked like 2015 for investors. Like in 2015, China’s (BABA) slowdown spooked investors in 2018.

The market is expecting that after the ban is lifted, Iran will be the leading natural gas producer in OPEC. The cartel has been led by Saudi Arabia.

Emerging markets such as China and international markets such as Japan have contributed significantly to Apple’s Services segment over the years.

After the imposition of Section 232 steel and aluminum tariffs last year, several observers warned that we could see a spike in downstream imports.

Both China and the US decided to steer clear of more contentious issues at the meeting. Accordingly, the disputes over Hong Kong and cyber space were not even brought up.

Intel (INTC) is expanding its data-centric business beyond data centers into the IoT (Internet of Things), 5G, FPGAs (field-programmable gate arrays), and memory.

Growth opportunities in the gaming market NVIDIA’s (NVDA) GeForce business unit has a history of strong growth. The company expects the growth to continue in coming years as the gaming market evolves with the increasing popularity of eSports, AAA games, gaming notebooks, and VR (virtual reality). At NVIDIA’s 2017 Investor Day, GeForce senior vice president […]

On October 11, 2017, SunTrust Robinson Humphrey upgraded Colgate-Palmolive (CL) stock to a “buy” from “hold” and increased the target price.

The global economy is closely watching China for fresh signs of a slowdown, which could threaten global growth.

On November 9, Cisco and Ericsson announced a major partnership where both companies would develop new products. Both face competition from nokia and Huawei.

Weak global demand and a strengthening dollar have affected oil prices.

We know the nation is politically divided, and now the market is showing us its split personality as well.

Unconventional stimulus measures from central banks usually end up injecting liquidity in global financial markets. They’re especially relevant to emerging market economies.

Although not considered safe haven assets, in the current context of high geopolitical risk and consequently volatility, investors could consider investing in sectors like energy and large cap companies.

While there is no denying that China (FXI) needs stimulus measures to kickstart its slowing economy, any propping up needs to be done in a way to avoid another debt-fueled crisis.

Market participants were caught by surprise when they read that the Federal Open Market Committee’s members were concerned about slowing growth in the US economy during 1Q17.

After the Apple Watch (AAPL) was launched in April 2015, Apple is largely expected to unveil its second generation watch on September 7, 2016.

This article considers China’s prospects to see its equity market rally once again after a few years of soft landing–induced tightening.

Slower growth has a silver lining: the potential for greater monetary and fiscal stimulus.

In 1Q16, Nvidia’s gaming revenue stood at $587 million—an increase of 25% on a YoY basis. For 2Q16, Nvidia expects revenue of $1.01 billion.

With new properties developing slower, the current price levels in China could in fact be supported. The risk for the future of housing prices is more likely to be associated with China’s GDP.

According to the China Iron and Steel Association, China’s 2015 crude steel output could decline by as much as 2%. This estimate is lower than CISA’s March estimate of a 1.1% decline.

With a fleet of almost 20 self-driving cars, Google now averages ~10,000 self-driving miles per week. Google claims that its cars have 75 years of US adult driving experience.

The Chinese market slump is not likely to dampen consumer spending or affect the economy. Stocks make up a mere 15% of Chinese household financial assets.

Truth: Emerging markets offer value. Given that they’re generally growing faster than their developed world counterparts, emerging markets still look cheap by most metrics.

According to the Qualcomm’s fiscal 1Q16 guidance, non-GAAP EPS is expected to be in the range of $0.80–$0.90, lower than the fiscal 4Q15 EPS of $0.91.

Analysts expect Walmart (WMT) to report sales of $117.8 billion in fiscal 1Q18, representing an improvement of 1.7% compared to fiscal 1Q17.

Twitter’s Project Lightning will let users view a collection of tweets with images and videos of a specific event without following individual accounts that have tweeted on the event.

Market research firm IDC has estimated worldwide PC shipments of 70.2 million units in 4Q16—a fall of 1.5% YoY.

In the first quarter, Intel (INTC) saw demand pressure in the data center market as its customers, especially in China (FXI), shifted to absorbing the excess capacity they purchased in the first nine months of 2018.

In a press conference on June 14 on its annual Article Four Staff Report, the IMF provided a positive assessment of China’s economy.

TSMC is set to report strong revenue in the fourth quarter of 2018, but its first-quarter 2019 earnings will likely be hit by weak sales of Apple’s (AAPL) iPhones.

Mobileye reported 37% year-over-year growth in the company’s second-quarter revenues as the adoption of its ADAS solutions increased.

China still offers some bright spots of opportunity for investors. The equity market slump in China (YINN) is not likely to affect the Chinese consumer.

Japan’s economy versus the U.S. economy The below graph reflects trends in Japan’s gross domestic product (GDP) measured in U.S. dollars as of 2005 and 2013. Japan’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in 2012 was approximately $6 trillion USD, versus the U.S. GDP of approximately $16 trillion USD (so Japan’s economy is approximately 38% the size […]

Hedge fund managers have expressed mixed opinions about the Chinese economy. China’s total debt-to-GDP ratio is currently in the range of 240%–270%, compared to 150% a decade ago.

In fiscal 1Q16, Advanced Micro Devices reported strong guidance for fiscal 2Q16, whereas behemoths Intel and Qualcomm reported weak guidance.

The monetary authority in China (FXI) (YINN) worked to get greater international recognition for the yuan. There are benefits to being a reserve currency.

This series explores the implications of China’s gradual transition to a more consumer-oriented economy.

The bubbles created in China’s stock market in 2007 and 2015–2016 show that stocks fell ~65.0% and ~41.0%, respectively.

On September 14, Donald Trump indicated that he wants to move ahead with tariffs on $200 billion in Chinese imports.

Key threats to the company include higher labor costs and greater regulation. After the Bangladesh factory tragedy, stricter regulations can be expected.

The Nikkei India Manufacturing PMI for April 2017 matched its reading for the previous month.

From the fastest-growing emerging market to casting a shadow over global growth, the Chinese economic story has indeed come a long way.

Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) developed an EPYC server CPU (central processing unit) that offered a better price-to-performance ratio than Intel’s (INTC) Xeon server CPUs.

Micron Technology’s (MU) second-quarter revenue guidance suggests that the memory industry is entering a cyclical downturn.

The semiconductor industry is set to report its worst quarterly results in a long time in the second quarter.

So this is painful. Very few were perfectly positioned into this selloff.

Japan’s import and export dynamics The below graph provides a clearer picture of the import and export dynamics of the Japanese economy. By using 2005 as a base year and adjusting for inflation or deflation, the graph shows how exports and imports have changed on a “real” basis, as opposed to a “nominal” basis. Viewing […]

Christine Lagarde, the managing director for the International Monetary Fund, sees a three-speed global economy In her speech at Brookings Institution in early June, Lagarde mentioned that the global economy has shifted this year towards a three-speed economy, versus the two-speed economy coined by PriceWaterhouseCoopers half a year ago. You can broadly categorize the three […]

Real estate and construction are the two important drivers of China’s economic growth. They account for more than 20% of China’s gross domestic product (or GDP) when you also factor in cement, steel, chemicals, furniture and other related industries.

Semiconductor stocks fell once again as President Trump played another card in the United States’ trade war with China.

Qualcomm is currently in a lengthy licensing lawsuit with its largest customer, Apple (AAPL), and there seems to be no sign of resolution.

Qualcomm expects data center to provide an $18-billion opportunity by 2020. The US would be the largest market, and China would be the second-largest.

Today, another round of trade talks started in Beijing.

ArcelorMittal faces certain macro risks. We’ll discuss these risks in this part of our series.

eBay (EBAY) announced better-than-expected 1Q15 earnings last week. The company’s overall revenues increased by 4% to $4.45 billion year-over-year.

IDC expects the wearables market to grow 20.3% from 2016 to 2020. Total shipments are projected to rise from 79 million in 2015 to 101.9 million in 2016.

China is becoming a relatively less expensive manufacturing base, although it’s also becoming a source of stronger revenues for companies like Apple.

In the past year, the correlation rose between natural gas and crude oil. During August 2015 and December 2015, the 30-day correlation rose significantly.

Looking at revenue synergies, we see that Fairchild’s strong portfolio in the high voltage and medium voltage power semiconductor market complements ON’s low voltage and small-signal market.

China has been an important element in Skechers’ success in international markets. Sales from China rose to $220 million in 2015 from $86 million in 2014.

On June 22, the National Statistics Office of the Republic of China reported unemployment figures for the economy of Taiwan.

Malaysia’s trade surplus jumped to 9.9 billion Malaysian ringgit (MYR) (about $2.3 billion as of August 11, 2017) in June 2017—an 80% rise YoY.

According to a May 6 report from TechCrunch, Indian e-commerce logistics startup Delhivery raised $85 million in funding a few months after it raised $35 million.

China’s export growth declines The below graph reflects an apparent decline in the rate at which Chinese exports and imports have been growing. The red line reflects the rate at which exports exceed imports (trade surplus). Though growth rates in trade declined in the wake of the year 2000’s dot com bubble and the 9/11 […]

This series explains why Japan’s investment decline happened and what might happen in the future under “Abenomics.”

Druckenmiller’s firm bought 710,200 shares of Alibaba (BABA) in 2Q17. The holding accounted for nearly 5.4% of the firm’s portfolio in 2Q17.

NVIDIA’s (NVDA) revenue declined due to weakness in the Gaming and Data Center segments.

A study by Bank of America Merrill Lynch noted that US labor is 2.6 times more expensive than Chinese labor, which could increase Apple’s product prices by 20%.

With China in a less oil-intensive stage of development, the demand for oil could stay low for a while.

A change in yen appreciation? The below graph reflects a potential big change in Japan post-2012—has yen appreciation turned the corner as a result of post-2012 “Abenomics“? In the mid 1970’s, the U.S. dollar bought 300 yen, and by the mid-1980’s, the U.S. dollar bought 250 yen. By the end of the 1980s, the dollar […]

Iron ore prices reached a six-month high of $62.7 per ton on October 26, 2016, bringing the YTD (year-to-date) gains for the commodity to an impressive 46%.

The US (SPY) and China (FXI) have imposed tariffs on $16 billion worth of goods. The tariffs were imposed despite talks in Washington, DC.

In May 2017, the Markit China Manufacturing PMI was 51.2 (MCHI)—similar to the previous month.

Since the mid-term elections, we’ve seen some traction in US-China trade talks. The two sides are contemplating a meeting.

According to the People’s Bank of China, new loans issued by Chinese banks rose to 985.5 billion yuan ($150 billion) in May from 555.6 billion yuan ($85.2 billion) in the previous month.

In this series, we’ll look at Intel’s headwinds and tailwinds and how they could affect investors.

Chile had been known as the best-managed economy in Latin America—until recently.

The alternate sourcing of communication chips would adversely impact US-based Qualcomm (QCOM), Intel (INTC), and Broadcom (AVGO), which supply communications chips.

Interbank lending rates The below graph reflects the effects of the China Central Bank’s monetary tightening policies on interbank lending rates. The interbank seven-day lending rate spiked in June. Rates on government bonds have also risen, with the three-month yield on Chinese bills rising from 2.65% to 3.50%, and the ten-year bond yield rising from […]

Aluminum inventories with London Metal Exchange (or LME) registered warehouses have declined this year. Aluminum inventories have been on a decline for almost two years.

China’s MNI Business Sentiment Indicator expanded to 50.5 in April due to stimulus measures from Chinese authorities to boost economic growth.

The second half of January 2019 has been turbulent for tech sector companies, especially semiconductors.

Qualcomm (QCOM) is a leader in the mobile market, with its chips powering 95% of the world’s smartphones.

As Intel (INTC) is facing delays in its core CPU (central processing unit) market, it’s important for the company to secure a large share of the optical photonics market and other 5G (fifth-generation) and AI markets.

The semiconductor industry has been badly hurt by the economic downturn caused by the US-China (FXI) trade war.