Fertilizer Affordability Index Rose Again Last Week
For the week ending August 18, fertilizers continued to become less affordable. Fertilizer affordability can help indicate the demand for fertilizers.
Mosaic and CF Industries could be severely undervalued (Part 4)
Continued from Part 3 Source of funding As Mosaic Co. (MOS) postpones its potash expansion for one or two years, and fiscal year 2013’s working capital increase reverses (largely due to an inventory build-up), we could expect the company to generate a free cash flow after dividends amount of ~800 million per year over the […]
How Natural Gas Prices Are Moving
Natural gas prices are critical for nitrogen and ammonia-based phosphate fertilizer producers.
Analysts’ April 2017 Recommendations and Targets for PotashCorp
PotashCorp (POT), the largest producer of potash fertilizers in North America, has fallen 7.0% year-to-date (or YTD).
Analysts Lower Price Target for Mosaic in August 2017
Mosaic (MOS) released its 2Q17 earnings on August 1, 2017, and reported EPS (earnings per share) of $0.28, which beat analysts’ estimate of $0.25.
How Mosaic’s Phosphate Prices Fared in 2Q16
Phosphate fertilizer prices are key to Mosaic’s (MOS) Phosphate segment’s sales, earnings, and stock price.
Behind PotashCorp’s Potash Shipments in 3Q17
PotashCorp’s (POT) Potash segment sales grew by ~9% YoY to $1.2 billion in 3Q17. Strong shipment volumes and price growth drove this growth.
Is This Why CF’s Stock Has Rallied?
Like CF Industries’ (CF) sales, its margins are also expected to expand YoY (year-over-year) in Q2 2018 and the next four quarters.
DAP Prices Remain Subdued for the Week Ending June 10
Ammonia is used to make phosphate fertilizers like DAP (diammonium phosphate) and MAP (monoammonium phosphate).
Potash Prices Showed Weakness for the Week Ending April 21
Last week, potash prices continued to show weakness week-over-week. Prices were broadly flat to positive for the week ending April 21.
Analysts’ Ratings and the Next-12-Month Price Target for Mosaic
Of the 22 analysts surveyed, about 32% of them gave Mosaic (MOS) a “buy” rating. About 41% of analysts issued a “hold” rating, and only 27% issued a “sell” rating.
How CF Industries’ Cash Flows per Ton Are Set to Increase
With CF Industries’ production capacity increasing, its cash flow per ton of product is also expected to increase.
Why India’s potash price discount won’t affect share prices
The significance of potash price Wholesale potash price is one of two factors (the other being sales volume) that influence potash producers’ revenues. When prices rise, so does revenue, which will translate to higher profitability (margins), earnings, and share prices. However, when prices fall, they will have a negative impact on fundamentals and share prices. […]
Why Did Mosaic’s Potash Shipments Decline in 4Q15?
Overall, 4Q15 potash shipments declined 16% to 1,931 thousand tons, from 2,039 thousand tons in 4Q14. Most of the decline came from the international crop nutrient shipments.
Key trends Intrepid Potash investors should watch for in 2014
After a year of declining sales and increasing costs, management seems much more optimistic regarding potash as well as Langbeinite.
A Look at Earnings Estimates for Agrium in 2017
Over the next four quarters ending in 3Q17, Agrium’s EBITDA (earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization) margin is estimated to expand to 12%.
Intrepid Potash’s Margins Are Expected to Expand in 2017
For each of the next four quarters, Intrepid Potash’s EBITDA is estimated to grow YoY. For 1Q17, analysts estimate EBITDA of $2.6 million.
Phosphate Fertilizer Continues to Hit New Highs
DAP (diammonium phosphate) fertilizer prices continued to hit new highs last week, which ended on August 24.
Was Morgan Stanley’s Call on Mosaic Already Priced In?
Phosphates and potash have been significantly lower year-over-year. It appears that investors already priced in the limited upside for Mosaic well before the downgrade.
Fertilizer Stocks and Commodity Prices: Week Ending March 24
The week ending March 24, 2017, was broadly negative for agricultural fertilizer stocks. The VanEck Vectors Agribusiness ETF (MOO) fell 0.98%.
Interest Rate Woes Continue to Haunt the US Stock Market
Now that the Fed’s meeting is over, the timing of the rate hike has made investors anxious. The delay in the rate hike is a sign of the health of the domestic economy.
How Sensitive Is PotashCorp’s Dividend to Potash Prices?
In the last 12 months, PotashCorp (POT) has earned about 36% of its total sales from its Potash segment.
Is CF Industries’ Valuation Justified?
Valuation multiples CF Industries (CF) has performed dismally in 2016. With the stock returning -41% YTD (year-to-date), it has left some investors in an uncomfortable position. In this part, we’ll discuss CF’s valuation multiple and compare it with that of peers (IYM). Multiples trading higher Recently, the forward PE (price-to-earnings) multiples of the four major […]
Key Takeaways from Agrium’s 2017 Earnings Estimates
Agrium’s (AGU) earnings for 1Q17 are estimated to fall from $0.05 per share in 1Q16 to -$0.06 per share.
How Did Agrium’s Retail Shipments Perform in 2Q16?
Agrium’s (AGU) Retail segment’s shipments declined by 0.03% to 4.84 million tons in 2Q16, down from 4.86 million tons in 2Q15.
A Review of CF Industries’ March 2017 Valuation Multiples
CF Industries’ (CF) earnings have been falling for the past five years, and it reported negative earnings in 4Q16.
Will Agrium’s 1Q16 Gross Margins Weaken?
Agrium (AGU) earns most of its revenues from its retail sales channel. However, when it comes to gross margins, the wholesale channel is more profitable.
Corn in good shape, but potential negative for fertilizers next year
Crop condition Crop condition is an indicator published every week by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) during the planting and harvest season. The indicator is useful in estimating the yield that farmers will be able to harvest this year. Solid percentages often point to strong crop production, which tends to alleviate pressure on […]
Was Uralkali’s new business strategy really Canpotex’s fault?
Uralkali’s latest move might be considered a punishment. But also note that outside forces can create a more competitive environment.
MAP Fertilizer Prices Hit a New High in Brazil
Last week, MAP (monoammonium phosphate) prices in Brazil continued their uptrend, while prices in NOLA (New Orleans) moved sideways.
PotashCorp: Analysts’ 3Q17 Earnings Estimates
PotashCorp is expected to report an EPS of $0.11, which will be flat compared to 3Q16. However, earnings growth is expected in the next four quarters.
Intrepid Potash’s Second-Quarter Sales Estimate
In the near term, analysts’ estimates for Intrepid Potash’s (IPI) sales fail to show a positive momentum.
Why is the end use of potash internationally diversified?
As crops widely trade in the international market, they often converge with each other if transportation costs aren’t so high.
Wall Street’s Take on Agrium for July 2017
Unlike PotashCorp (POT), Mosaic (MOS), and CF Industries (CF), Agrium (AGU) has a large retail business, giving the company more stability in earnings.
Analysts’ Views on CF Industries after 2Q17 Earnings
CF Industries (CF) reported its quarterly earnings on August 2, 2017. Its EPS was $0.10, which was in line with analysts’ consensus estimate.
What Are Analysts’ Recommendations for Mosaic?
Out of the 21 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg, 36% had a “buy” rating, 50% had a “hold” rating, and only 14% had a “sell” rating on Mosaic.
Ratings and Price Target for Intrepid Potash
As of January 23, 2017, one of the six analysts covering Intrepid Potash has a “buy” recommendation for the company over the next 12 months.
Mosaic’s International Distribution Segment: 4Q16 Shipment Growth
Mosaic (MOS) earned about 34.0% of its revenue and 28.0% of its gross margin from its International Distribution segment in 4Q16.
How Intrepid Potash’s Gross Margin Compares with Its Peers
With a gross deficit, Intrepid Potash reported an adjusted net loss per share of $0.23 in 2Q16, which would also make it the fifth consecutive quarter that the company has reported a net adjusted loss.
How Did DAP Prices Move in the Week Ending June 17?
Ammonia is used to make phosphate fertilizers like DAP (diammonium phosphate) and MAP (monoammonium phosphate).
PotashCorp’s Price Target before It Reports Its 2Q16 Earnings
Since the beginning of 2016, analysts have revised their next-12-month price target for PotashCorp downward. The consensus price target now stands at $15.70.
MAP Prices in Brazil Continued to Rise Last Week
In the week ending January 20, average MAP prices in Brazil rose 2.1% to $343 per metric ton from $336 per metric ton the previous week.
Key Takeaways from CF Industries’ Strong Second-Quarter Results
CF Industries reported second-quarter sales of $1.3 billion, which beat analysts’ estimate of $1.2 billion.
DAP Prices See a Mixed Week for the Week Ending August 19
Average DAP prices in China were flat at 2,669 Chinese yuan per metric ton last week. DAP prices in Morocco remained unchanged at $340 per metric ton.
Is the Trio Segment an Answer to Intrepid’s Challenges?
Over the years, Intrepid Potash (IPI) has shifted its business model to focus more on Trio.
Why Intrepid Potash Is the Biggest Loser among Its Peers
In this article, we’ll compare the company’s potash cost of goods per ton to its average selling price per ton and those of other players in the market.
Canadian National Railway: Inside the Fall in Its Grain Revenues in 3Q17
In 3Q17, revenues from CNI’s Grain and Fertilizers segment fell 1.0% to $492.0 million Canadian, compared to $497.0 million Canadian in 3Q16.
A Look at Potash Corporation’s Cash Flows and Leverage
During the first nine months of 2015, Potash Corporation’s free cash flows declined to $913 million from $1,175 million in the corresponding period in 2014. This was primarily due to a decline in potash prices.
A Look at DAP Prices and Their Continuing Climb
The average DAP price at US Gulf NOLA for the week ended March 25 rose to $340 per metric ton ($308 per short ton) compared to $302 per metric ton ($333 per short ton) the previous week.
What Analysts Expect for Mosaic’s Margins
Sales growth and gross income growth are also expected to trickle down to Mosaic’s (MOS) EBITDA (earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization) estimates.
Why Does CF Industries Have High Leverage?
CF Industries has resorted to leverage to fund its projects, which are expected to create more nitrogen capacity and, in turn, benefit shareholders.
What Is Positive about the Recent Wheat Stock-to-Use Numbers?
In September, the global wheat inventory declined 1.5% to 249 million metric tons compared with 252 million metric tons in August 2016.
A Near-Term Outlook for Phosphate Fertilizers’ Capacity Additions
For phosphorous fertilizers, 2018 will be the year in which the biggest capacity additions will occur, according to PotashCorp (POT).
Where Potash Prices Are Showing Firmness as of July 7
Unlike the nitrogen and phosphate fertilizer prices, potash fertilizer prices have remained relatively stable so far in 2017.
How Did Fertilizer Affordability Trend Last Week?
Last week, the Fertilizer Affordability Index rose by as much as 5.7% week-over-week to 0.56x from 0.53x last week.
PotashCorp: Effects of Falling Potash Prices
PotashCorp’s average potash selling price fell ~34.0% to $157 per ton in 4Q16, from $238 per ton in 4Q15. Potash prices in North America fell ~35.0%.
Intrepid Potash Rose Due to Analyst Upgrade on February 13
On February 13, Intrepid Potash (IPI) rose 15.2% and closed at $2.27 from the previous day’s close, while the S&P 500 Index closed 52 basis points higher.
Why Nitrogen Prices Continue to Face Pressures
Overall, the nitrogen prices have weakened in 3Q15, falling to $319 per metric ton from $356 per metric ton in 3Q14.
Why Mosaic’s Gross Margins Could Expand in 2Q17
The Mosaic Company (MOS) mainly produces and sells phosphate and potash fertilizers. The company is one of the largest producers of phosphate….
Potash Prices Lacked Movement: Week Ending September 15
Last week, potash prices in the Cornbelt region of the US moved sideways week-over-week to $230 per metric ton.
CF Industries: Wall Street Recommendations and Targets
Given all that we’ve discussed so far in this series, let’s look at analyst ratings and price targets for CF Industries for the next 12 months.
How CF Industries’ Segment Sales Fared in 2017
CF Industries (CF) sales growth remained depressed in 2017. In the first three quarters of 2017, the company reported sales growth of just about 1% year-over-year.
Mosaic’s Price Target and Recommendations
On February 2, 2017, only three of the 20 analysts covering Mosaic (MOS) stock gave the company a “strong buy” to a “buy” recommendation for the next 12 months.
Are Potash Prices Beginning to Lift?
Potash prices have fallen significantly over the years. This trend has put pressure on existing companies to justify their expansion costs.
How Potash Shipments Performed in 1Q16
Mosaic (MOS) and PotashCorp (POT) were hit the hardest, with their respective shipments declining by 24% each to 1.5 million tons and 1.7 million tons year-over-year.
Why potash stocks around the world crash as Uralkali leaves Belarus Potash Company
Industry concentration Industry concentration is a factor that affects competition. When only a few firms occupy a large portion of the industry’s revenue, competition tends to be less, as companies try to live with each other to maintain profits. On the other hand, when there are a large number of firms vying for market share, […]
Mosaic’s Price Target Cut to $27 following Its 1Q17 Earnings
Much like Agrium (AGU), The Mosaic Company (MOS) had a disappointing 1Q17. Mosaic reported flat or no earnings per share (or EPS), missing analysts’ consensus estimate of $0.17.
PotashCorp’s Margins Contract, but How Much?
Year-over-year, each of PotashCorp’s three segments experienced a margin contraction in 4Q16. How has that affected PotashCorp (POT)?
Why Phosphate Fertilizer Prices Are Rising
In 2018, Mosaic expects the global phosphate demand to be at 70 million metric tons.
What 2017 Meant for Potash Producers
Potash fertilizers Most of the fertilizer companies we’ve discussed in this series sell all or some of the three NPK (nitrogen, phosphorous, and potassium) macronutrients. To learn more about these macronutrients’ key role in agriculture, read Agricultural Fertilizer Industry: Your Comprehensive Overview. In this part, we’ll look at what 2017 meant for potash producers. Price trends […]
Suffering Potash? Where It’s Headed in 2017
For 2017, Mosaic (MOS) forecasts that global potash demand to be in the range of 61 million–63 million metric tons. This level would be higher than in 2016.
How the Fertilizer Affordability Index Trended Last Week
Last week, the Fertilizer Affordability Index was unchanged week-over-week at 0.7x.
April Update for Fertilizer Stocks: Ratings and Price Targets
Fertilizer stocks have failed to impress investors in 2018. The VanEck Vectors Agribusiness ETF (MOO) has returned ~1.4% year-to-date.
How Fertilizer Prices Moved in Week Ending February 16
CVR Partners (UAN) emerged as the top gainer among fertilizer stocks with a 6.7% rise last week to close at $3.18 per share.
MAP Prices Inch Higher for the Week Ended February 23
Last week, MAP prices in both the locations rose on a weekly basis.
Analysts’ Ratings for Agrium before Its 3Q16 Results
Analysts’ ratings So far in this series, we’ve discussed analysts’ estimates for Agrium’s (AGU) 3Q16 sales, margins, and earnings per share. While you can gauge the outlook for the company using these estimates, it’s also helpful to look at analysts’ recommendations and price targets for Agrium over the next 12 months. Ratings and price targets Overall, […]
How Producers’ Potash Segments Trended in 4Q17
Due to the increase in potash prices this year, the overall potash segment margins for five companies discussed below expanded as much as 9% to 29% from 20% on average.
Analysts’ Ratings, Price Target for CF Industries before 1Q16 Earnings
Out of 16 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg, about 50% have “buy” ratings for CF Industries (CF). About 44% have “hold” recommendations, and one has a “sell” rating for the company.
No Surprise: Mosaic’s Margins Contracted
Overall margins for Mosaic (MOS) contracted significantly year-over-year.
Agrium’s Margins See Expansion despite Weak Prices in 2Q17
Despite a sales decline and lower year-over-year price realization, Agrium’s (AGU) margins saw an improvement during 2Q17.
Agrium’s Retail Crop Nutrient Shipments Rise in 3Q16
In 3Q16, Agrium’s Retail segment contributed 84% of total gross profit, with crop protection and crop nutrients making up the majority of segment sales.
Fertilizer Affordability Pressure Eased Last Week
While the Fertilizer Affordability Index was below one, it’s still higher compared to the average levels observed since January 2016.
How Is CF Industries Valued prior to Its 2Q17 Earnings?
It’s now time to look at what investors are paying for CF Industries prior to its 2Q17 earnings. Earlier, we learned that CF Industries is expected to report negative earnings per share in 2Q17.
Fertilizer Prices and Input Cost Movements as of April 15
Fertilizer prices constitute the biggest factor impacting the performance of fertilizer companies. In this series, we’ll see how NPK prices and the prices of raw materials changed in the week ended April 8, 2016.
Why Ammonia Prices Will Benefit Phosphate Producers
The average price of ammonia for the week ending March 11 stood at $310 per metric ton, remaining unchanged from the previous week.
CF Industries: A Good Fit for Top 10 Agricultural Chemicals List?
Over the past ten-year period, CF Industries has risen 186.0% and significantly outperformed the S&P 500 Index’s rise of 69.2% over the same period.
Fertilizer Affordability Update for the Week Ending January 26
Last week, the fertilizer affordability showed some positive momentum week-over-week.
Moody’s and S&P Downgrade CF Industries’ Credit Ratings
Negative news continues to flow for CF Industries. Just when investors were hoping that it reached the bottom cycle, it was hit by credit rating downgrades.
Short-Term and Long-Term Outlook for Potash Prices
The supply-demand imbalance will further push down potash prices in the coming years. It will hurt companies such as PotashCorp, Mosaic, Intrepid Potash (IPI), and Agrium (AGU).
How Do Recent Potash Prices Compare with Their 15-Year Average?
The average weekly price of MOP (muriate of potash) in Vancouver remained unchanged for the week ended May 20, 2016.
How Did Fertilizer Stocks Perform Last Week?
In the week ending November 3, agricultural fertilizer stocks were broadly positive.
MAP Prices Continued Their Ascent Last Week
MAP (monoammonium phosphate) prices last week continued their ascent.
What Analysts Think about Compass Minerals International
As of September 18, the consensus mean price target on CMP stood at $69.5 per share, which was about 1.6% lower than the closing price of $70 on the same day.
Fertilizers Were More Affordable in Week Ended November 25
For the week ending November 25, fertilizer affordability fell to 0.65x from 0.66x week-over-week.
History’s Not on POT’s Side when It Comes to Earnings Growth
When we look at the past five quarters, we see that PotashCorp has missed all its earnings estimates.
Monsanto’s 12-Month Ratings and Price Targets: Must-Knows
As of June 24, 2016, Monsanto (MON) was trading at ~$108.9 per share. Let’s look at Wall Street analyst ratings and target prices for the company’s share price over the next 12 months.
CF’s 3Q16 Sales Estimate Shows a Common Trend in the Industry
CF Industries’ (CF) sales segment includes UAN (urea ammonia nitrate), AN (ammonia nitrate), ammonia, and granular urea.
What’s in Store for Agrium’s 1Q17 Earnings?
Agrium (AGU) is set to report its 1Q17 earnings on May 1, 2017, after the market closes.
Analyzing the MAP Prices in Brazil Last Week
The MAP (monoammonium phosphate) prices in Brazil saw positive momentum last week. Brazil is still a favorable market for fertilizer producers.
Analysts’ Recommendations and Price Targets for CF Industries
On March 21, 2017, of the 18 analysts surveyed by Reuters, one had a “strong buy” recommendation on CF Industries, while five had “buy” recommendations on the company for the next 12 months.