Mosaic Co

Phosphate fertilizer prices are key to Mosaic’s (MOS) Phosphate segment’s sales, earnings, and stock price.

Like CF Industries’ (CF) sales, its margins are also expected to expand YoY (year-over-year) in Q2 2018 and the next four quarters.

Last week, potash prices continued to show weakness week-over-week. Prices were broadly flat to positive for the week ending April 21.

Of the 22 analysts surveyed, about 32% of them gave Mosaic (MOS) a “buy” rating. About 41% of analysts issued a “hold” rating, and only 27% issued a “sell” rating.

The significance of potash price Wholesale potash price is one of two factors (the other being sales volume) that influence potash producers’ revenues. When prices rise, so does revenue, which will translate to higher profitability (margins), earnings, and share prices. However, when prices fall, they will have a negative impact on fundamentals and share prices. […]

After a year of declining sales and increasing costs, management seems much more optimistic regarding potash as well as Langbeinite.

The week ending March 24, 2017, was broadly negative for agricultural fertilizer stocks. The VanEck Vectors Agribusiness ETF (MOO) fell 0.98%.

In the last 12 months, PotashCorp (POT) has earned about 36% of its total sales from its Potash segment.

Agrium’s (AGU) Retail segment’s shipments declined by 0.03% to 4.84 million tons in 2Q16, down from 4.86 million tons in 2Q15.

As crops widely trade in the international market, they often converge with each other if transportation costs aren’t so high.

Since the beginning of 2016, analysts have revised their next-12-month price target for PotashCorp downward. The consensus price target now stands at $15.70.

Average DAP prices in China were flat at 2,669 Chinese yuan per metric ton last week. DAP prices in Morocco remained unchanged at $340 per metric ton.

Mosaic (MOS) and PotashCorp (POT) were hit the hardest, with their respective shipments declining by 24% each to 1.5 million tons and 1.7 million tons year-over-year.

Potash fertilizers Most of the fertilizer companies we’ve discussed in this series sell all or some of the three NPK (nitrogen, phosphorous, and potassium) macronutrients. To learn more about these macronutrients’ key role in agriculture, read Agricultural Fertilizer Industry: Your Comprehensive Overview. In this part, we’ll look at what 2017 meant for potash producers. Price trends […]

While the Fertilizer Affordability Index was below one, it’s still higher compared to the average levels observed since January 2016.

The average price of ammonia for the week ending March 11 stood at $310 per metric ton, remaining unchanged from the previous week.

Over the past ten-year period, CF Industries has risen 186.0% and significantly outperformed the S&P 500 Index’s rise of 69.2% over the same period.

The average weekly price of MOP (muriate of potash) in Vancouver remained unchanged for the week ended May 20, 2016.

For the week ending November 25, fertilizer affordability fell to 0.65x from 0.66x week-over-week.

When we look at the past five quarters, we see that PotashCorp has missed all its earnings estimates.

CF Industries’ (CF) sales segment includes UAN (urea ammonia nitrate), AN (ammonia nitrate), ammonia, and granular urea.

The MAP (monoammonium phosphate) prices in Brazil saw positive momentum last week. Brazil is still a favorable market for fertilizer producers.

Last week, fertilizer affordability rose to 0.66x from 0.65x week-over-week. A ratio below one means that fertilizers are more affordable than during the base year.

The Fertilizer Affordability Index has shown a downward trend since the beginning of the year. Fertilizers have become more affordable in 2017.

Last week, MAP (monoammonium phosphate) prices continued to fall and brought more pain for phosphate producers (NANR).

On March 13, 2017, five of the 18 analysts covering CF Industries (CF) recommended a “strong buy” to a “buy” for the next 12 months, down from six analysts in February.

The average weekly price of MOP (muriate of potash) at Vancouver has been flat since the beginning of March.

Mosaic (MOS) continued to enjoy higher margins at 7%—compared to Agrium’s (AGU) margins at 5%. Mosaic’s margins were flat year-over-year.

CVR Partners missed both top-line and bottom-line estimates for the second quarter, and the stock fell 4.5% after the earnings release.

The median gross margin for these companies’ phosphate segments was 14%, as a percentage of segment sales in 4Q15.

The weekly average price for potash in Vancouver remained flat in the week ended June 24, 2016. Prices are below their 15-year average of $290 per metric ton.

Recently, the Fertilizer Affordability Index has seen an upward trend.

Fertilizer affordability has seen some tightening in the last couple of months.

MAP (monoammonium phosphate) prices hit a low of $343 per metric ton in August but have been on an upward momentum since then.

Last week, the MAP prices in Brazil rose as much as 5.6% week-over-week to $394 per metric ton from $373 per metric ton a week ago.

There’s a handful of big players in the agricultural fertilizer industry. Setting up business requires huge capital, which makes for a high barrier to entry.

At the end of 2017, after receiving final regulatory approval for the merger, PotashCorp and Agrium combined into a new company called Nutrien (NTR).

Potash prices over the past few years have been considerably lower than what we saw during their peaks of ~$482 in 2011 and ~$870 in 2009.

Mosaic (MOS), which has historically traded at a high valuation multiple of 9.2x, is currently trading at an enterprise value to next 12-month EBITDA ratio of 5.7x.

Potash prices in the Corn Belt region of the United States appear to still be reversing their downward movement.

Intrepid Potash (IPI) is nearing $1 per share, which means that only a few analysts are covering the stock.

The Fertilizer Affordability Index kept trending lower last week, continuing its two-week streak.

Potash stocks struggled for most of 2016. In 1H16, potash demand was negatively affected due to delays in potash contract settlements in China and India.

The average price of ammonia for the week ending March 4, 2016, stood at $310 per metric ton compared to $311 per metric ton a week ago.

On average, granular urea prices were flat to positive week-over-week. In NOLA (New Orleans), granular urea prices rose as much as 3.5% week-over-week.

Last week, the Fertilizer Affordability Index remained unchanged at 0.65x week-over-week. Fertilizers are more affordable than during the base year.

MAP (monoammonium phosphate) is the second most used phosphate fertilizer after DAP (diammonium phosphate).

Canada, Russia, and Belarus together account for more than 89% of the world’s estimated reserves and a little over 66% of global capacity.

In Brazil, potash prices were flat at $281 per metric ton in the week ending January 12.

DAP (diammonium phosphate) prices have been rising lately.