BTC iShares U.S. Treasury Bond ETF

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  • uploads///AGG Gives You Exposure to Investment Grade Bonds
    Macroeconomic Analysis

    Why Your Portfolio Needs More Than Just Equities

    You know your portfolio needs more than just equities. So what can complement equities in your portfolio? How many high-yield bonds you own depends on your risk appetite.

    By Matt Tucker, CFA
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    Macroeconomic Analysis

    Will FOMC Keep Tightening Screws on the US Economy?

    FOMC members after the latest policy statement have remained biased toward further rate hikes, but markets have questioned the Fed’s hawkishness.

    By Ricky Cove
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    Macroeconomic Analysis

    Is the Fed Sure What It’s Doing?

    In this series, we’ll analyze Fed members’ comments in June 2017 to better understand their outlooks on the US economy and how they justify their hawkish or dovish stances.

    By Ricky Cove
  • uploads///The Federal Funds Rate Has Been Stuck at around  for over  Years
    Macroeconomic Analysis

    A Softer Rebound Could Move Markets in the 2Q

    A softer rebound could move markets in the second quarter. If the economy remains weak in the second quarter, the Fed has some leeway to maneuver the rate.

    By Russ Koesterich, CFA
  • uploads///Bank of Japans Effective Funds Rate
    Macroeconomic Analysis

    Bank of Japan Maintained the Status Quo: Is QE Working for Japan?

    The Bank of Japan (or BoJ) maintained the status quo in its recent monetary policy review meeting on April 28, 2016.

    By Sarah Sands
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    Company & Industry Overviews

    How Saudi Arabia’s Bond Sale Affects US Treasury Bonds

    Saudi Arabia has also been involved in the sale of US Treasuries. The country is the 15th-largest holder of US Treasury bonds in the world.

    By Surbhi Jain
  • uploads///US Treasury Yields Are Higher Compared to that in the Developed World
    Macroeconomic Analysis

    What Could Keep Treasury Yields Low?

    Low yields abroad could keep Treasury yields low. The ten-year US Treasury is currently yielding ~2.4%—compared to 0.9% of the German bund.

    By Russ Koesterich, CFA
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    Macroeconomic Analysis

    How Recent Economic Data Affected Bond Markets

    In the recent weeks, the performance of the US bond markets (BND) has been influenced by trade conflicts between the US and other nations.

    By Ricky Cove
  • uploads///Treasury Yields Have Been Heading North in
    Macroeconomic Analysis

    Why Have Treasury Yields Risen?

    The US Treasury (TLT)(GOVT) yields have been driven mainly by the Greek debt fiasco and central bank actions. Yields started falling early this year.

    By Russ Koesterich, CFA
  • uploads///bondvsgold
    Macroeconomic Analysis

    Gold versus 10-Year Treasury Bonds

    The negative interest policy of the central banks is casting government bonds as a futile choice for investors compared to stocks and gold. As a result, bond prices dipped and yields started rising.

    By Russ Koesterich, CFA
  • uploads///duration risk
    Financials

    Investors Beware: Duration Risk Has Risen across the Bond Market

    If you’re a bond (BSV) (AGG) investor or fund manager, fluctuation in interest rates is one of the key risk drivers for the returns you get from your portfolio.

    By Surbhi Jain
  • Financials

    Assessing demand fundamentals for the latest T-bond auctions

    The 30-year T-Bond auction was a reopening of May’s 30-year bond issue. The underlying 30-year T-Bond was auctioned on May 8 at a coupon of 3.375% to mature on May 15, 2044.

    By Phalguni Soni
  • uploads///Federal Reserve meeting
    Financials

    Could This Week’s Fed Meeting Boost Gold and Bonds?

    The Fed is scheduled to meet this week. With the S&P 500 at record highs, could the Fed play spoilsport at this week’s meeting?

    By Mohit Oberoi, CFA
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    Fund Managers

    Ray Dalio’s Take on China

    Ray Dalio discussed his take on the slowdown in China and how it could impact worldwide growth at the World Economic Forum in Switzerland.

    By Anuradha Garg
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    Miscellaneous

    President Trump Criticized the Fed, Impacted Financial Assets

    In an interview with Reuters on August 20, President Trump mentioned that he was “not thrilled” with the Federal Reserve for raising rates.

    By Anuradha Garg
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    Macroeconomic Analysis

    What to Make of the Rebound of the Credit Index in May

    The Leading Credit Index expanded for the first time in four months in May with a reading of -0.86.

    By Ricky Cove
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    Macroeconomic Analysis

    One Way China Could Twist Trump’s Arm

    There is one economic measure at China’s dispense that could force the Trump administration to back away from its aggressive trade policy.

    By Ricky Cove
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    Macroeconomic Analysis

    How the US-China Trade Deal Could Hurt Global Markets

    China invests the trade surplus it has with its trading partners in US government securities (GOVT).

    By Ricky Cove
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    Macroeconomic Analysis

    Should We Worry about the Contracting Credit Index?

    The Conference Board uses credit conditions in the economy as one of the components of the leading economic index (or LEI) economic model.

    By Ricky Cove
  • uploads///money _
    Basic Materials

    US Yields Peak and Gold Slumps. Are the Dots Connecting?

    US ten-year Treasury note yields (IEF) hit a high mark of approximately 3.1% today—a record since July 2011.

    By Meera Shawn
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    Consumer

    Global Fund Managers Think These Trades Are the ‘Most Crowded’

    The frequency of an asset class making financial headlines is indicative of investor interest.

    By Ricky Cove
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    Macroeconomic Analysis

    Why Bond Yields Rose on Tuesday

    The April retail sales report was released on May 15, and the surprise reaction to this report was an increase in bond (BND) yields across the board.

    By Ricky Cove
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    Macroeconomic Analysis

    What to Make of a Contracting Leading Credit Index

    In March, the Leading Credit Index recorded a reading of -0.46, declining, compared to the February reading of -0.79.

    By Ricky Cove
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    Macroeconomic Analysis

    Fed Member Mester Says Flat Yield Curve Is Not a Sign of Weakness

    Fed member Loretta Mester has sided with Fed Chair Jerome Powell that a flattening yield curve doesn’t signal a weakness.

    By Ricky Cove
  • uploads///recession _
    Macroeconomic Analysis

    Why the Markets Are Worried about the Yield Curve

    The spread, or the difference between the ten-year and two-year US Treasury bonds, has fallen below 50 bps for the first time since 2007.

    By Ricky Cove
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    Macroeconomic Analysis

    An Economic Arrow in China’s Quiver

    China owns close to 20% of the total outstanding US debt, and the total value of these securities is close to $1.2 trillion.

    By Ricky Cove
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    Macroeconomic Analysis

    Is It Time for Fiscal Expansion?

    An economy records a budget deficit when its annual revenue generated is lower than its expenditure.

    By Ricky Cove
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    Macroeconomic Analysis

    What the Lending Credit Index in January Tells Us Now

    The Conference Board uses credit conditions in the economy as one of the key constituents in its LEI (Leading Economic Index).

    By Ricky Cove
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    Macroeconomic Analysis

    Will the US Government Be Able to Borrow Effortlessly?

    US government securities (GOVT) are considered to be risk-free with minimal credit risk. There shouldn’t be any problems with raising more capital—at least on paper, and for the time being.

    By Ricky Cove
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    Macroeconomic Analysis

    Double Whammy: Rate Hikes and Balance Sheet Trimming

    The US Federal Reserve has accumulated huge quantities of fixed-income (BND) securities as part of its three quantitative easing programs, QEs 1, 2, and 3.

    By Ricky Cove
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    Macroeconomic Analysis

    Why US Treasury Borrowing Could Rise Substantially

    The US Treasury manages the US government’s payments, and whenever there’s a shortfall in meeting expenses, the Treasury borrows and pays interest.

    By Ricky Cove
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    Macroeconomic Analysis

    Why the US Economy Could See a Higher Deficit

    A government budget deficit occurs when an economy’s annual revenue is less than its total expenditure.

    By Ricky Cove
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    Macroeconomic Analysis

    Why Buffett Says Low-Yielding Bonds Are a Dumb Investment

    In this annual letter to shareholders, Buffett explained a bet between him and his counterpart, Protege Partners, to fund a charity, Girls Inc. of Omaha.

    By Ricky Cove
  • uploads///DEBT
    Macroeconomic Analysis

    Have We Missed a Greater Threat in the Recent Market Turmoil?

    The recent market turmoil that shook investors’ confidence has settled for the time being, but…

    By Ricky Cove
  • uploads///mistake _
    Macroeconomic Analysis

    Understanding Warren Buffett’s Warning to Bond Market Investors

    In his latest shareholder letter, dated February 24, legendary investor Warren Buffett shared his views on financial markets.

    By Ricky Cove
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    Macroeconomic Analysis

    How the FOMC Views the US Financial Situation

    The FOMC staff review indicated that the US investor sentiment has improved in the inter-meeting period.

    By Ricky Cove
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    Macroeconomic Analysis

    Changes to the Balance Sheet Unwinding Program

    According to the latest communication from the Fed, the pace of the balance sheet unwinding program has been increased to $20 billion per month.

    By Ricky Cove
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    Macroeconomic Analysis

    Is the Leading Credit Index Signaling Any Business Cycle Changes?

    This constituent of the LEI is an economic model, constructed by modeling changes in six financial market instruments.

    By Ricky Cove
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    Macroeconomic Analysis

    What’s the Economic Impact of the US Government Shutdown?

    The latest US government shutdown only lasted for three days and is unlikely to have a major impact on the US economy.

    By Ricky Cove
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    Macroeconomic Analysis

    What Could Happen if the US Debt Ceiling Isn’t Raised

    The failure of US Congress to raise the debt ceiling would result in a partial government shutdown. The US Treasury wouldn’t be able to issue any government debt, and it could end up borrowing from its retirement savings fund.

    By Ricky Cove
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    Financials

    Why Is US Debt So High?

    Most countries tend to issue debt to fund their deficits and keep paying interest on these borrowings. These revenues are generated through taxes from companies and individuals.

    By Ricky Cove
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    Macroeconomic Analysis

    Your Guide to the US Debt Ceiling

    The current debt ceiling is likely to be breached on January 19, and once that happens, the US Treasury must stop issuing any new debt (SHY).

    By Ricky Cove
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    Macroeconomic Analysis

    What Could Happen If China Wants Its Money Back?

    If the Chinese government decides to sell its US debt (GOVT) holdings, it could lead to another possible global financial crisis.

    By Ricky Cove
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    Macroeconomic Analysis

    Why Is China the Largest Holder of US Debt?

    The process of China buying US debt is beneficial for both the United States and China.

    By Ricky Cove
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    Macroeconomic Analysis

    Which Countries Hold the Most US Debt?

    The United States holds the largest trade deficit in the world. The United States has had a trade deficit for more than four decades and continues to increase the deficit every year.

    By Ricky Cove
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    Macroeconomic Analysis

    The US Bond Market and the Big Scare from China

    On January 10, 2018, Bloomberg News broke a story that the Chinese government could be planning to slow down its purchases of US government debt (GOVT).

    By Ricky Cove
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    Macroeconomic Analysis

    How the Leading Credit Index Tracks US Credit Conditions

    Understanding the Leading Credit Index The Conference Board LCI (Leading Credit Index), a constituent in the LEI (Leading Economic Index), is published every month and tracks credit conditions in the US economy by following changes in six financial market instruments: the two-year swap (SHY) spread (real time) the three-month LIBOR[1.Intercontinental Exchange London Interbank Offered Rate] (SCHO) […]

    By Ricky Cove
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    Macroeconomic Analysis

    A Double Dose of Tightening from the Fed in 2017

    In its December monetary policy statement, the Fed projected three interest rate hikes in 2018 and three in 2019, depending on the incoming economic data.

    By Ricky Cove
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    Macroeconomic Analysis

    Assessing the Risk of a Flattening Yield Curve

    St. Louis Fed president and CEO James Bullard gave a presentation at a regional economic briefing on December 1. Throughout this series, we’ll analyze Bullard’s take on the risks of an inverted yield curve.

    By Ricky Cove
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    Macroeconomic Analysis

    The Leading Credit Index: October Update

    The Leading Credit Index for October was reported to be -0.70, improving from the revised September reading of -0.64.

    By Ricky Cove
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    Macroeconomic Analysis

    The FOMC’s Latest Review of the Financial Situation

    The FOMC staff review indicated that domestic financial asset prices between meetings reacted to lower accommodation from the US Federal Reserve.

    By Ricky Cove
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    Macroeconomic Analysis

    Key FOMC Insights and the New Fed Chair

    The US FOMC left rates unchanged after the November 2017 meeting, as expected, setting the stage for a potential rate hike in December.

    By Ricky Cove
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    Macroeconomic Analysis

    Understanding the Leading Credit Index for September 2017

    The Leading Credit Index is an economic model that’s modeled on the performance of six major financial market instruments.

    By Ricky Cove
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    Macroeconomic Analysis

    A Look at the Possible Effects of Balance Sheet Unwinding

    The US Fed has amassed a huge number of fixed income (BND) securities as part of its quantitative easing (or QE) programs 1, 2, and 3.

    By Ricky Cove
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    Macroeconomic Analysis

    Inside the September FOMC Meeting: Key Points

    In this series, we’ll discuss the September FOMC meeting minutes in detail and decide how the meeting minutes have changed the outlook for markets.

    By Ricky Cove
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    Macroeconomic Analysis

    ADP Jobs Data Dragged Lower by Hurricanes in September

    As per the September ADP National Employment Report, the US private sector added 135,000 jobs during the month. The figure is a sharp decrease from 228,000 in August.

    By Ricky Cove
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    Macroeconomic Analysis

    Why FOMC’s John Williams Sees No Impact of Balance Sheet Unwinding on Markets

    In the long run, Williams said it would be difficult to predict how markets would react to the Fed’s balance sheet unwinding program.

    By Ricky Cove
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    Macroeconomic Analysis

    Reading the FOMC’s Changing Tone

    Since the September 20 statement, markets have turned skeptical about whether the Fed will be able to go ahead with its December rate hike plan.

    By Ricky Cove
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    Macroeconomic Analysis

    Are Investors Not Worried about Risk Anymore?

    Throughout this series, we’ll look at potential risks facing markets, and how they could impact global financial markets in the short-to-medium term if they end up materializing.

    By Ricky Cove
  • Understanding the Leading Credit Index
    Macroeconomic Analysis

    Understanding the Leading Credit Index

    Understanding the Leading Credit Index The Conference Board LCI (Leading Credit Index), a constituent of the LEI (Leading Economic Index), is constructed based on the performance of six financial market instruments. These components track lending conditions in the US economy. Performance of the LCI Improving credit conditions are considered positive for the economy. When the LCI […]

    By Ricky Cove
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    Macroeconomic Analysis

    Assessing the US Dollar’s Rally after the Latest Hawkish Fed Statement

    The US dollar rallied after the latest FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) meeting statement was released on September 20.

    By Ricky Cove
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    Macroeconomic Analysis

    More Temporary Relief from North Korea Tensions?

    This week volatility (VXX) has continued to stick to its trend of sudden spikes and then dropping immediately.

    By Ricky Cove
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    Macroeconomic Analysis

    Why the US Debt Ceiling Fight Has Been Postponed

    The key reason for the debt ceiling deal was to approve aid to Hurricane Harvey victims. A US government shutdown could have adversely impacted relief operations.

    By Ricky Cove
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    Macroeconomic Analysis

    The US Debt Crisis and the Specter of a Government Shutdown

    Although the latest date that the US debt ceiling can be raised is September 29, there is usually a two-week extension to allow both sides to come to an agreement.

    By Ricky Cove
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    Macroeconomic Analysis

    Why North Korea Tensions Matter to the Market in September

    Risk aversion is likely to weigh on riskier assets like equities (QQQ) and cause bond spreads to widen.

    By Ricky Cove
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    Macroeconomic Analysis

    How Bond Markets Reacted to North Korea’s Missile Launch

    US bond markets were the center of attention last week as central bankers’ comments at Jackson Hole could have induced volatility in the bond markets.

    By Ricky Cove
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    Macroeconomic Analysis

    North Korea Tensions: Will Demand for Safe Havens Rise?

    In the financial markets, there are a few financial assets whose demand increases dramatically in times of uncertainty.

    By Ricky Cove
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    Macroeconomic Analysis

    What Financial Markets Predict for the US Economy

    Understanding the Leading Credit Index The Conference Board Leading Credit Index (or LCI), which tracks lending conditions in the economy, is reported monthly. The index has six constituents: 2-Year Swap Spread (SHY) (real time) LIBOR[1.London Interbank Offered Rate] 3-month (SCHO) less 3-month Treasury-bill (VGSH) yield spread (real time) debit balances in margin accounts at broker dealers […]

    By Ricky Cove
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    Macroeconomic Analysis

    Why Bond Markets Can’t Rally Aggressively This Week

    US bond markets (BND) remained volatile (VXX) in the week ending August 25. Investors reacted to US political developments and Yellen’s speech.

    By Ricky Cove
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    Healthcare

    Why the US Government Has Been Shut Down Before

    A failure to raise the debt ceiling will likely result in a US government shutdown and a default by the US, which would be catastrophic for the global economy and financial markets (VTI) (USMV).

    By Ricky Cove
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    Macroeconomic Analysis

    Here Are the Short-Term Risks to the Bond Markets

    The key risk faced by bond markets is a sudden fall in prices.

    By Ricky Cove
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    Macroeconomic Analysis

    Will the US Dollar Turn Around after Jackson Hole Symposium?

    The US Dollar Index (UUP) managed to recover some of the losses it saw in the last few weeks.

    By Ricky Cove
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    Macroeconomic Analysis

    Why Bond Yields Remained Unchanged Last Week

    The US bond markets (BND) turned volatile (VXX) in the week ending August 18 but remained close to their August 11 close.

    By Ricky Cove
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    Miscellaneous

    Do Financial Markets Have Another Tense Week Ahead?

    Equity markets in the US and across the globe reported heavy losses as risk aversion set in.

    By Ricky Cove
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    Macroeconomic Analysis

    How Rising Geopolitical Tensions Could Affect Bond Yields

    US bond markets (BND) rallied in the previous week as tensions between the US and North Korea escalated.

    By Ricky Cove
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    Miscellaneous

    Will Bond Yields Continue to Fall amid Geopolitical Tensions?

    Bonds, especially U.S. Treasuries (GOVT), are considered one of the safest assets in which to park your funds in times of uncertainty.

    By Ricky Cove
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    Miscellaneous

    How Are Safe Havens Faring in This North Korea Fear?

    The safe havens that benefit the most in times of uncertainty include gold (GLD) and U.S. Treasuries (GOVT).

    By Ricky Cove
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    Macroeconomic Analysis

    Inflation Data’s Impact on the Bond Markets

    FOMC members Neel Kashkari, William Dudley, and Robert Kaplan are scheduled to speak this week.

    By Ricky Cove
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    Macroeconomic Analysis

    Will the Bond Market Revival Continue This Week?

    US bond markets (BND) continued to recover with fewer chances for another rate hike from the US Fed this year.

    By Ricky Cove
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    Macroeconomic Analysis

    Why Bond Prices Rose after the FOMC’s Statement

    US government bonds gained after the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) indicated in its July 2017 statement that near-term inflation could remain below its 2% target.

    By Ricky Cove
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    Macroeconomic Analysis

    Could the Fed Derail the Bond Rally?

    Bond markets continue to rally The US bond market (BND) continued its impressive rally last week. The possibility of a slower pace of rate hikes from the US Fed boosted bond market sentiment. Bond yields across the curve fell. The ten-year yield (IEF) closed at 2.2%, with a fall of 95 basis points. The two-year […]

    By Ricky Cove
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    Macroeconomic Analysis

    Will the US Balance Sheet Unwind Affect the Markets?

    After the July FOMC meeting statement was released, market participants came to believe that the Fed would begin the process of balance sheet normalization soon.

    By Ricky Cove
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    Macroeconomic Analysis

    Why We Need to Track Consumer Expectations

    The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index is a measure of consumer expectations for future economic conditions. The index is prepared based on two different surveys.

    By Ricky Cove
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    Macroeconomic Analysis

    What the Conference Board LEI Tells Us about the Market

    The Leading Credit Index is one of the constituents of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (or LEI), which is reported by The Conference Board on a monthly basis.

    By Ricky Cove
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    Macroeconomic Analysis

    Why the Yield Curve’s Flattening Doesn’t Indicate a Recession

    In recent months, there’s been a lot of chatter about the flattening of the yield curve. The yield curve is constructed by plotting the yields of different maturities.

    By Ricky Cove
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    Macroeconomic Analysis

    Why Did Bond Yields Drop after Yellen’s Latest Testimony?

    Bond yields were all over the place during US Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen’s testimony to the Congress.

    By Ricky Cove
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    Macroeconomic Analysis

    Why the Possibility of Delayed Rate Hikes Boosted Bond Markets

    Bond markets (BND) rebounded sharply after disappointing data on June retail sales and inflation (TIP).

    By Ricky Cove
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    Macroeconomic Analysis

    Will Market Shocks Really Be Minimal to Balance Sheet Unwinding?

    In its June policy meeting, the Fed has signaled that it will stop replacing maturing securities and slowly reduce the size of its balance sheet.

    By Ricky Cove
  • Macroeconomic Analysis

    Why the Bond Markets Survived Stellar Jobs Numbers

    The bond markets (BND) have survived better-than-expected US payroll additions last week. The US economy added 222,000 jobs in June 2017 amid broad-based gains.

    By Ricky Cove
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    Macroeconomic Analysis

    Why FOMC Members Were Divided about Balance Sheet Shrinking

    The FOMC June meeting minutes that were released on July 5, 2017, indicated that the FOMC members were divided over when to begin shrinking the Fed’s bloated balance sheet.

    By Ricky Cove
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    Macroeconomic Analysis

    Why Central Bankers Are Ruling the Bond Markets

    In terms of Treasury auctions, the three-year, ten-year, and 30-year (TLT) bonds worth $56 billion are scheduled to be offered this week.

    By Ricky Cove
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    Macroeconomic Analysis

    Why the US Dollar Keeps Trending Lower

    The US Dollar Index (UUP) sank below the 96.0 mark on Tuesday, marking the continued depreciation of the US dollar against other major currencies.

    By Ricky Cove
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    Macroeconomic Analysis

    Dallas’s Kaplan Discusses the Biggest Headwind for the US Economy

    Dallas’s Federal Reserve president, Robert S. Kaplan, said that the rebound in the US economy is likely to continue for the rest of 2017.

    By Ricky Cove
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    Macroeconomic Analysis

    Why NY’s Fed President Doesn’t Feel a Flattening Yield Curve Is Negative

    New York’s Federal Reserve president, William C. Dudley, recently spoke at a business forum in New York and said that he was pleased with the current state of the US economy.

    By Ricky Cove
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    Macroeconomic Analysis

    Why Bond Traders Continue to Be Confused

    US Treasuries (GOVT) had another roller coaster ride this week due in part to the conflicting views from Fed members and weaker-than-expected economic data.

    By Ricky Cove
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    Macroeconomic Analysis

    What Does Rise in US Interest Rates Mean for Bond Markets?

    US Treasuries (GOVT) had a mixed response to the FOMC statement and the Fed’s interest rate hike.

    By Ricky Cove
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    Macroeconomic Analysis

    What Narrowing Yield Spreads of US Treasuries Could Indicate

    The US ten-year yield fell to 2.1% after the weak US data report, US inflation showed a decline of 0.1%, and retail sales fell by 0.3% for May 2017.

    By Ricky Cove
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    Macroeconomic Analysis

    Fed Chair Yellen Warns about Its $4.5 Trillion Balance Sheet Unwinding

    In her post-meeting press conference, Janet Yellen warned that the Fed could implement its balance sheet unwinding process soon if the economy continues to perform as expected.

    By Ricky Cove
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    Macroeconomic Analysis

    Could an FOMC Rate Hike Drive Bond Yields Higher?

    Bond yields of U.S. Treasuries managed to recover from the losses of the previous week. Demand for US bonds receded.

    By Ricky Cove
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    Macroeconomic Analysis

    Why Loretta Mester Is Worried about Falling behind the Curve

    Loretta J. Mester, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, said she doesn’t want the Fed to fall behind the curve.

    By Ricky Cove
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