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What You Can Expect from US Auto Sales in June

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Automobile stocks in June

In June, stocks of most mainstream US automobile companies (IYK) are trading on a positive note. As of June 14, General Motors (GM), Ford (F), Toyota (TM), and Ferrari (RACE) have risen 2%, 2.9%, 5.8%, and 13.7%, respectively. Fiat Chrysler (FCAU) has fallen ~8.6% so far this month. By comparison, the S&P 500 benchmark has risen 2.9% month-to-date.

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US auto sales so far in 2018

According to Autodata, US auto sales at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (or SAAR) stood at 16.9 million units in May compared to 16.8 million in May 2017. The positive YoY (year-over-year) growth, investors’ high expectations from June sales, and broader market positive sentiments could be some of the reasons most US auto stocks are trading on a positive note in June.

Previously, Cox Automotive’s estimates suggested a 3.1% YoY gain in US light vehicle sales to ~1.6 million units in May. Estimates from WardsAuto reflected a 3.4% YoY rise in May’s US light vehicle sales.

In 2016, volumes of US auto sales were at their highest, with about 17.6 million vehicles sold. In 2017, sales fell 1.8% YoY.

Series preview

In this series, we’ll take a look at some recent macroeconomic data that should be tracked by auto investors to get an idea about a possible future trend in US light vehicle sales. We’ll also look at the latest consumer sentiments and jobs-related data. Later in the series, we’ll explore some factors that may affect US automakers’ profitability and truck sales in the coming months.

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