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What Can We Expect from US Auto Sales in November?

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Recent trends in US auto sales

According to Autodata, October 2017 US auto sales fell 1.3% YoY (year-over-year), after rising ~6.1% YoY in September. Increased auto demand from hurricane-affected areas could be one of the key reasons for the solid September US vehicle sales (IYK), as people from affected areas began looking for replacement options for their broken vehicles.

Notably, September has been the only month in 2017 so far wherein US auto sales have risen on a YoY basis.

In the first ten months of 2017, US auto sales fell 1.7%. During this period, US small car sales fell 10.4%, while light truck sales rose 4.3% YoY.

November 2017 US auto sales estimates

According to JD Power Ratings, November 2017 US vehicle sales’ SAAR (seasonally adjusted annualized rate) is estimated to be ~17.3 million units. This would be much lower than the SAAR of 17.6 million units we saw in November 2016.

These estimates suggest that about 1.37 million vehicle units will likely be sold in November 2017, representing a ~0.2% YoY decline.

In 2016, US auto sales volumes were at their highest at ~17.6 million units. However, the weakness in the first ten months of 2017 has ignited debates about a possible downturn in US auto sales. Continued weakness in November US auto demand could hurt auto investor sentiment going forward.

In October 2017, auto companies General Motors (GM) and Fiat Chrysler Automobiles (FCAU) reported declines in their US sales, while Ford Motor (F) and Toyota Motor (TM) managed to report YoY gains. These companies are likely to release their November US sales data in the first week of December.

Please visit Market Realist’s Autos page for updates.

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