iShares TIPS Bond

Founded by Ray Dalio, Bridgewater Associates’ top sell in the third quarter was the iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (EEM).

JPMorgan Chase (JPM) thinks that gold prices (GLD) should go higher. Right now, the Fed is patient on rate hikes.

While the markets aren’t expecting any changes in rates following the meeting, they’re keenly awaiting the Fed’s strategy to deal with strong economic growth accompanied by low inflation (TIP).

The US Bureau of Economic Analysis released its personal consumption expenditure (or PCE) price index today. The PCE index is the Federal Reserve’s preferred gauge of inflation.

Gundlach expected the Fed to go from two expected hikes in 2019 to 0.5 hikes. However, the Fed surprised him by projecting no hikes this year.

The Federal Reserve’s two main objectives are stabilizing prices and maximizing employment.

Jeffrey Gundlach is very concerned about the increasing debt in the US economy.

The Federal Reserve has two main objectives: price stability and maximizing employment.

When it comes to investing in stocks, Berkshire Hathway’s (BRK.A) chair, Warren Buffett, and Bridgewater’s founder, Ray Dalio, have similar advice.

Out of the investors surveyed, 46% expect global growth to weaken over the next 12 months.

Fed policymakers are watching the job data closely. The data show whether the US economy is strong enough to withstand interest rate hikes.

Wage growth could be the most closely watched component of the US jobs report. Wage growth hasn’t consistently gone in the right direction.

J.P. Morgan (JPM) has one of the most bullish views on Wall Street about the stock market outlook in 2019.

Fed policymakers are watching job data closely, as the data gives the Fed insight as to whether the US economy (SPY) (IVV) is strong enough to withstand interest rate hikes.

Wage growth will likely be the most closely watched component of the US (VOO) jobs report.

A major factor weighing on gold prices this year was the Fed’s tightening cycle.

Another concerning statistic that came to light during the Bank of America Merrill Lynch’s Fund Manager Survey was that investors made the largest ever one-month rotation into bonds (BND).

Last month, Goldman Sachs predicted the S&P 500 (SPY) will reach 3,000 by the end of 2019.

The Federal Reserve Committee plans to meet for the last time in 2018 on December 18–19. The committee is widely expected to raise interest rates (TLT) by 25 basis points, marking the fourth hike this year.

The US jobs report for November was released today.

Fed policymakers are watching the job data closely, as it gives them insight as to whether the US economy is strong enough to withstand interest rates hikes.

Wage growth will likely be the most closely watched component of the US (VOO) jobs report.

One question we need to ask ourselves is whether yesterday’s surge in the markets (QQQ)(DIA) is justified. The answer depends on our understanding of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s comments.

After a prolonged calm period, a sell-off in equities (SPY) (QQQ) in October and again in November has shaken the markets out of their slumber.

Bank of America analysts contend that gold prices (GLD) should surge over the next year.

Since equities have slumped in October, investors are reassessing the price they should be paying for the forward earnings.

The US consumer price index (or CPI) for September was released today at 8:30 AM EST. Inflation numbers were weaker-than-expected.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average Index tumbled more than 800 points yesterday as Treasury yields continued their upward march.

Increasing interest rates spooked investors again today as US stocks dropped sharply amid rising Treasury yields.

The demand for gold in India (INDA) was lukewarm in the first half of the year, mainly due to stronger equity markets and higher gold prices measured in rupees.

For the last few days, the bond markets have seen sell-offs due to stronger-than-expected economic data and hawkish comments from the Federal Reserve.

Whether the recent sell-off in the bond and stock markets is just a blip or the beginning of a sustained downward rally will depend on the upcoming US economic data.

The Fed is scheduled to meet on September 25–26. The Fed is widely expected to raise rates by 25 basis points during the meeting.

Job numbers give Fed policymakers clues about whether the US economy (SPY) (IVV) is strong enough to withstand interest rate hikes.

The Fed’s annual economic policy symposium starts Thursday. Fed chair Jerome Powell will speak on “Monetary Policy in a Changing Economy.”

The rupee has depreciated by ~7.0% year-to-date against the US dollar. This event caused local gold prices to rise.

Gold prices (IAU) have been on a losing spree since mid-April due to the US dollar’s strength and diverging monetary policies.

After its June 22 meeting, OPEC decided to increase its output. However, this increase was lower than what the markets expected.

In the May LEI report, the yield spread had a net impact of 0.14 (or 14.0%).

The PPI for final demand in May is reported to have increased by 0.5% month-over-month.

The US Federal Reserve has a dual mandate of achieving maximum employment and stable prices (TIP) in the economy.

The FOMC’s June statement was released on June 13, and the outlook for inflation remained upbeat.

During the Fed’s May meeting, the inflation (TIP) target was described as “symmetric,” suggesting that the 2% target would not be used to initiate any dramatic changes to US monetary policy.

On June 12, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that US consumer prices rose 0.2% in May, adding to the 0.2% increase seen in April.

The central banks of the US, EU, and Japan are scheduled to meet this week.

As of June 1, the unemployment rate in the US has dropped to 3.8%—its lowest level in the last 18 years.

According to the April JOLTS report, there were 6.7 million job openings at the end of April compared to 6.6 million in March.

Gave believes the disinflationary boom is the natural state of capitalism and shifts to an inflationary boom every 30–40 years.

In the current economic climate, we can expect the Fed to take a step back with respect to interest rate hikes.

As per the May ADP employment report, job growth in the professional and business services sector continued to be the key driver for jobs additions.

The last three trading sessions in May are likely to be influenced by geopolitical issues rather than economic data.

The FOMC’s May meeting minutes indicated that some of its members had turned bearish on inflation (TIP).

The most recent FOMC meeting was on May 1–2. At the meeting, the range for the federal funds target rate was left unchanged.

The US bond markets remained under selling pressure as bond yields, especially at the short end of the curve, continued to shoot up, while the long-term yields remained subdued.

The Conference Board uses average weekly unemployment claims as a constituent of its Leading Economic Index (or LEI).

The US dollar depreciated against its major trading-partner currencies after the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on May 10 that US consumer prices grew 0.1% in April after falling 0.1% in March.

US bond market investors were relieved after the US Bureau of Labor Statistics’ April report, published May 10, indicated a lower-than-expected inflation growth rate.

US indexes (SPY) are reaching highs as investors ignore possible threats of the US pull-out from the Iran nuclear deal and focus on increasing crude prices.

On May 10, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that US consumer prices rose 0.2% in April.

The Bureau of Economic Analysis defines PCE (personal consumption expenditure) as the value of goods and services purchased by, or on behalf of, US residents.

The US employment market could be overheating. Businesses are adding more than 200,000 jobs per month despite rising trade tension.

The Bureau of Economic Analysis (or BEA) released its first estimate for 1Q18 real GDP on Friday.

US markets (IJH) will be tracking ongoing corporate earnings. US markets could be influenced by the multiple economic reports scheduled this week.

The total industry capacity utilization in March increased from 77.7% in February to 78.0% in February.

In April, the yield spread has declined to the lowest level since the Great Recession and could decline further if inflation doesn’t accelerate.

No financial indicator is foolproof, and the same can be said about the flattening yield curve in the current economic climate.

The primary reason cited by the FOMC for holding off on interest rate hikes since 2016 was lagging inflation growth.

The reason for the current yield flattening in this cycle is lower expectations for inflation growth.

The BLS released the “Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey” for February on April 13.

US bond market investors are constantly concerned about inflation.

On April 11, market participants expected a volatile session after the US inflation report, but, to their surprise, Donald Trump’s tweet earlier in the day about Syria and missiles pushed markets lower.

The US Bureau of Labor Statistics has reported that US consumer prices fell 0.1% in March.

According to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, the US consumer price index (or CPI) rose 2.4% year-over-year (or YoY) in March 2018.

The March FOMC meeting minutes indicated that the staff and FOMC members turned bullish on inflation.

In the March meeting minutes, the FOMC staff review of the economy was stronger than the review presented at the January meeting.

The last FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) meeting was on March 20–21, 2018. Overall, the FOMC minutes were “hawkish.”

The University of Michigan final consumer sentiment for March was reported at 101.7, up by 1.7 as compared to the final February reading of 99.7.

The non-farm payrolls for March rose by 103,000, which was below the consensus expectation of 193,000 jobs being added.

Personal consumption rose 0.2% in February and by 4.6% in the last 12 months.

In his keynote delivered at the tenth conference organized by the International Research Forum on Monetary Policy in March, Boston Federal Reserve president Eric Rosengren highlighted US policy tools’ deficiency in combating another recession.

Policy changes announced in the last six months may have led to the increased projection for economic growth.

The Bureau of Economic Analysis released the third and final estimate for 4Q17 GDP, indicating that the economy has improved at an annual rate of 2.9%.

As per the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the US Consumer Price Index (or CPI) rose 0.2% in February, compared to a 0.5% rise in January 2018.

Over the last 12 months, unemployment levels have fallen to a 17-year low of 4.1%.

The FOMC’s March statement was released on Wednesday, March 21, and the outlook for the closely watched inflation remained muted.

In the latest SEP release, the Fed upgraded its GDP growth outlook for 2018 by 0.2% to 2.7%.

In the first policy meeting under new Fed chair Jerome Powell, the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) increased the interest rate 0.25%.

According to the Federal Reserve, total industry capacity utilization increased 1.3% from 77.4% in January 2018 to 78.1% in February.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics released its JOLTS (Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey) data for January on March 16.

The US dollar depreciated against its major trading partner currencies after the US inflation (TIP) report was released on Tuesday.

The most awaited economic data release of the week proved to be risk positive, as inflation growth for the month of February was reported at 1.8%.

The US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that US consumer prices increased marginally in February.

The recently proposed import tariffs on steel and aluminum imports by US President Donald Trump are an effort to protect the interests of US manufacturers.

Nominal GDP indicates higher rates The recently released second estimate for 4Q17 GDP indicates that the US economy grew 2.5%, a percentage point lower than the advance estimate of 2.6% and considerably lower than the 3Q17 growth of 3.2%. The nominal GDP growth rate, which is the real growth rate plus inflation (TIP), was 4.9%. The nominal […]

The US Bureau of Economic Analysis (or BEA) has released its second 4Q17 GDP estimate, projecting that the US economy increased at an annual rate of 2.5%.

If we turn back the clock to before the recession, we find that US debt levels weren’t this high, and unconventional programs like quantitative easing helped the economy recover from the Great Recession.

A government budget deficit occurs when an economy’s annual revenue is less than its total expenditure.

The recent market turmoil that shook investors’ confidence has settled for the time being, but…

The increasing demand for fixed income investments has pushed bond prices higher and yields lower, but investors have continued to pour money in.

Warren Buffett has been a great believer in the equity market. His strategy of buying stocks after a dip has been fruitful for investors.