Mary Sadler

Are markets upbeat on potential tax reforms? The markets (SPY) (IVV) surged last week with the announcement of a phenomenal update on the corporate tax cut. The S&P and Nasdaq Comp gained ~2% in the week ended February 10, 2017. The Trump administration’s proposed tax cut is likely to boost the economy, though analysts have […]

President Trump is expected to submit a tax reform and infrastructure spending package to Congress this year—all aimed at increasing business investments.

Trump’s domestic growth-friendly policies Returns have been surging for the financial sector (XLF) (VFH) as the market expects to benefit from the Trump administration’s projected policies. Markets are highly confident with the expectation of more rate hikes, for example, and of widespread deregulation. Banks’ earnings have thus been getting a huge boost, and the market has been […]

The recovery of oil prices in the second half of 2016 has helped the Russian economy recover from negative growth in 4Q16.

The bubbles created in China’s stock market in 2007 and 2015–2016 show that stocks fell ~65.0% and ~41.0%, respectively.

The Nikkei India Manufacturing PMI for April 2017 matched its reading for the previous month.

The US dollar (UUP) (UDN) seemed to show mixed response to the Fed’s rate hike on March 15, as prices have reflected a downtrend so far in 2017.

Brazil’s (EWZ) economy is showing signs of improvement in 2017, and inflation is hovering around its target rate.

Malaysia’s trade surplus jumped to 9.9 billion Malaysian ringgit (MYR) (about $2.3 billion as of August 11, 2017) in June 2017—an 80% rise YoY.

The implementation of the Goods and Services Tax (or GST) is expected to boost India’s medium-term economic growth above 8%, according to government data.

The rising interest rate is expected to boost the economy in the long run, but it could severely impact sectors like real estate.

The main drivers of China’s (FXI) (GXC) stock market are domestic investors who make the market volatile.

Chile had been known as the best-managed economy in Latin America—until recently.

South Korea’s (EWY) stock market soared to a new high recently, posting large gains across the Asia-Pacific region (VPL)(EPP). In this series, we’ll discuss what we can expect from South Korea for the rest of the year.

Economic activity in Brazil (EWZ) has been slow as it tries to emerge from its deep recession in 2016. But consumer and business confidence is improving.

The Mexican peso recently climbed in value after the Trump administration said that it would not exit NAFTA altogether.

Colombia (GXG) signed a deal with the Mercosur trade bloc on July 21, 2017, to allow the import of limited quantities of certain products without a tariff in the Colombian market.

The Mexican economy expanded 0.6% in 1Q17, beating market expectations. Exports and private spending have continued to support growth in Mexico this year.

The recovery of oil prices in the latter half of 2016 has helped the Russian ruble to appreciate along with improved exports.

Argentina’s economy expanded in 1Q17 after consecutive contractions over the last three quarters.

Consumer spending in India (INDL) stood at ~17.8 trillion rupees in 4Q16, an 11% increase compared to 16.0 trillion rupees in 3Q16.

For the first time since the 2008 financial crisis, FPI in 2015–2016 saw net outflows of about 181 billion rupees as compared to an inflow of about 2,274 billion rupees in 2014–15.

Mexico’s auto production rose 3.2% to 278.2 thousand vehicles in April 2017 as compared to April 2016 but decreased as compared to March 2017.

The US dollar is expected to keep the yuan under pressure. Investors can probably expect a massive outflow of capital from China in 2017.

Bond markets are experiencing rising yields due to higher economic growth expectations. However, the 10-Year Treasury yield was still low at 2.4% on March 29, 2017

China’s service sector has been showing tremendous improvement since the last quarter of 2016.

Index funds have recently gained popularity since actively managed funds haven’t been able to capture investors’ return expectations.

Markets seem to have overcome Trump’s anti-trade rhetoric by this point in 2017, given the lost confidence in Trump’s ability to implement his promises.

Several macroeconomic indicators are suggesting that the Russian (RSX) economy is improving.

The financial technology industry embodies a combination of financial services and communications tech and aims to reshape the financial sector landscape.

Europe’s average unemployment has fallen to a four-year low of 9.8% as of 2016. Greece’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate was 23.5% in January 2017.

In April 2017, manufacturing activity in Indonesia (IDXG) saw its strongest rise since mid-2016, mainly due to the faster expansion of new work orders.

Consumer confidence in Germany rose more than expected in February 2017, reflecting the recent boost in its market performance

Investors lost confidence due to the uncertainty surrounding the vote, which led to the expectation of the other member nations’ following in the United Kingdom’s footsteps.

The service sector is the main contributor to Brazil’s GDP and job creation, but it’s currently suffering from structural weakness and poor international performance.

Equity market indexes across the United States are surging and recording all-time highs. The volatility index is also falling, which could be a good sign for IPO activity in 2017.

The business confidence in Colombia (GXG) in June 2017 remained in negative territory but recovered from lows in the last five months.

The social and economic crisis in Venezuela has resulted in food and medicine shortages, a crippled economy, record high inflation, and falling oil prices.

In 2016, property prices in China soared about 30.0% due to increased activity in the real estate space.

Argentina (ARGT) posted a higher trade deficit for May 2017 at $642 million, mainly due to increasing imports as compared to its exports.

Retail sales in Malaysia rose 13.9% YoY (year-over-year) in June 2017, compared with its 13.6% gain in May 2017.

Despite persistent deflation, Japan’s (EWJ) economy is growing at a slower pace, and its 3Q16 growth exceeded expectations as exports recovered.

Exports from Malaysia in June 2017 stood at 73.1 billion Malaysian ringgit (MYR) (about $17 billion as of August 11, 2017), or 10% higher YoY.

As the third-largest economy in Latin America, Colombia is expected to recover from its subdued growth of ~2% in 2016—its lowest figure since 2009.

China had pegged its currency, the yuan, to the US dollar as it was a developing nation.

Consumer prices in Malaysia grew 3.6% in June 2017, compared with its 3.9% rise in May 2017.

Russia’s market performance has been affected by geopolitical crisis in Ukraine and Syria since 2014.

Auto-enrollment is now being considered as an alternative to the individual mandate of Obamacare—something that would reduce the current penalty to $0.

Soft economic data suggest an optimistic outlook that will rely heavily on the Trump administration pushing forward with tax reforms and infrastructure spending.

The US economy is swiftly adding jobs, with the latest addition of 227,000 jobs in January 2017.

Currently, the passage of tax reform is playing a significant role in Trump’s agenda in 2017 after some of the setbacks in their reforms.

Stock prices across European markets (VGK) (HEZU) rose on February 21, 2017, and business activity in the Eurozone reached a six-year high.

Improved industrial production and exports in Russia (RSX) have helped to lift the country’s economic activity in 2017.

Manufacturing activity in Malaysia remained subdued in July 2017.

Consumer prices in Colombia (GXG) rose 3.4% on a year-over-year basis in July 2017, lower than the 4.0% rise in June 2017.

Industrial confidence in Colombia (GXG) improved in June 2017 to -5.4% as compared to -8.8% in May 2017.

Colombian (GXG) exports stood at $2.8 billion in June 2017, a 0.8% increase year-over-year and an 18% decline on a month-over-month basis.

The big technology companies (XLK) are expected to continue dominating the markets (SPY) (QQQ) thanks to their size, innovations, acquisitions, and investments in 2017.

The Technology Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLK), which tracks technology stocks, has posted gains of about 20% so far in 2017, as of August 8, 2017.

Manufacturing activity in July 2017 South Korean (EWY) manufacturing activity dropped in the July 2017, with a sharp reduction in output. The Nikkei South Korea (EEM) manufacturing PMI decreased to 49.1 from 50.1 in June, according to an IHS Markit report. Manufacturing activity in South Korea returned to contraction, with reduced orders for its key export markets, […]

Manufacturing activity in Indonesia In July 2017, manufacturing activity in Indonesia (EIDO) fell at the fastest pace in 19 months, mainly due to sharp decline in its output. Indonesia’S (EEM) manufacturing PMI (purchasing managers’ index) fell to 48.6, compared with 49.5 in June 2017, according to an IHS Markit report. New orders also fell in July […]

Improvement in operating conditions in Russia In July 2017, operating conditions in Russia improved at the fastest pace since January 2017. The Russian PMI (purchasing managers’ index) increased to 52.7 from 50.3 in June 2017. New orders and output saw the strongest expansion, each reaching a six-month high. The surprising improvement in the manufacturing sector comes […]

Manufacturing activity in Greece In July 2017, the manufacturing PMI (purchasing managers’ index) in Greece (GREK) remained steady. Operating conditions improved marginally, largely driven by a rise in output. The business conditions improved for a second consecutive month as of July 2017. Consumer sentiment is improving in Greece (EEM ), with improved tourism and growth […]

Manufacturing activity in Brazil In July 2017, the manufacturing PMI (purchasing managers’ index) in Brazil (BRZU) continued to decline, falling to 50 from 50.5 in June 2017. July 2017 brought a slowdown in both output and new business. US companies doing business in Brazil include Walmart (WMT), ExxonMobil (XOM), Chevron (CVX), and Apple (AAPL). Brazil (EWZ) […]

Manufacturing activity in June 2017 A survey of the manufacturing sector in India suggests that the introduction of a GST (goods and services tax) affected its manufacturing activity in July 2017. India’s (INDY) manufacturing PMI fell to 47.9 in July from 50.9 in June, according to an IHS Markit report. In July 2017, the manufacturing […]

In this series, we’ll look at the performance of global (ACWI) manufacturing indexes and manufacturing activity in emerging markets.

Consumer confidence in Indonesia (EIDO) fell to 122.4 in June 2017 from an all-time high of 125.9 in May 2017.

Manufacturing activity in Indonesia (EEM) in July 2017 fell at its fastest pace in the last 19 months mainly due to the sharp decline in its output.

Exports from Indonesia (EIDO) in June 2017 stood at $11.6 billion, a fall of 11.8% on a year-over-year basis and 19% on a month-over-month basis.

Indonesia’s (EIDO) trade surplus in June 2017 stood at $1.6 billion as compared to $1.1 billion in the corresponding period last year and $0.57 billion in the previous month.

Inflation in Indonesia (EEM) in July 2017 stayed in line with the market expectation of 3.9%.

Business confidence in the manufacturing sector in South Korea (EWY) has remained stable at 78 in July 2017.

The South Korean (EWY) Manufacturing PMI (Purchasing Managers’ Index) rose to 50.1 in June 2017 compared to 49.2 in May 2017.

South Korea’s (EWY) consumer confidence continued to remain steady at 111.2 in July 2017 compared to 111.1 in the previous month.

South Korean equities are soaring in 2017, with the Korea Composite Stock Price Index (or KOSPI), its benchmark index, reaching an all-time high of 2,451.5 in July 2017.

The service sector PMI (purchasing mangers’ index) in India (INDA) rose to 53.1 in June 2017, compared to 52.2 in May.

Uncertainty related to India’s new goods and services tax, which was implemented on July 1, 2017, seemed to affect India’s manufacturing activity in June 2017.

Consumer spending in India (INDA) is expected to grow via remonetization and other reforms undertaken by its government in 2017.

The trade gap in India (INDA) continued to widen in June 2017. In the month, it stood at $12.9 billion, a 59.7% rise year-over-year (or YoY) and a 6% fall month-over-month.

Consumer prices in India (INDY) rose 1.5% year-over-year in June 2017, slowing sharply from their 2.2% rise in May 2017.

Sensex, India’s (EPI) benchmark index, closed above the 32,000 mark for the first time on July 13, 2017.

Consumer confidence in Mexico seems have been hit by increasing prices in June 2017. Consumer confidence in the country fell to 84.4 in June, compared to 85.1 in May.

Mexico’s manufacturing activity posted a strong performance after its output, new orders, and employment picked up the pace in June 2017.

The Mexican peso (EWW) continued to rise in July 2017, touching an 18-month high following the easing of President Donald Trump’s anti-trade rhetoric in the last few months.

Consumer prices in Mexico (EEM) surged 6.31% year-over-year (or YoY) in June 2017, compared to their 6.16% rise YoY in May.

Global (ACWI) recovery in 2017 has helped labor market conditions to improve across OECD (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development) nations.

Economic activity in Mexico rose 3.1% year-over-year (or YoY) in May 2017, a rebound from its YoY fall of 0.57% in April 2017.

Business confidence in Russia (ERUS) in June 2017 continued to be stable month-over-month and higher than it was last year during this time.

Business activity in Russia’s (ERUS) service sector continued to increase in June but at a slower pace than the previous month.

Many macroeconomic indicators in Russia (ERUS) are showing signs of improvement in 2017.

The Russian ruble (ERUS) tends to move in line with crude oil prices (USO) (UCO).

Russia’s (ERUS) current account recorded a $0.3 billion gap in 2Q17 as compared to a $23.3 billion surplus in the previous quarter and a $2 billion surplus in the same period.

The consumer prices in Russia (ERUS) rose 4.4% on a year-over-year basis in June 2017 following a 4.1% rise in the previous month.

Manufacturing activity in China expanded in June 2017 compared to its fall in May. Chinese manufacturing activity is showing a mixed outlook for economic growth in 2017.

The Chinese yuan (FXI) has surged to its highest level against the US dollar (SPY) in 2017 amid the mixed performances of its macroeconomic factors.

China’s (FXI) imports rose to $153.8 billion in June 2017, a 17.2% rise year-over-year (or YoY) and a 2% rise month-over-month.

Chinese (FXI) exports stood at $196.6 billion in June 2017, a rise of 11.3% year-over-year basis and a rise of 8.7% month-over-month.

The services sector is one of the most important sectors contributing to Brazil’s GDP and job creation, but its been facing structural issues and poor performance.

Inflation in China was on a steady rise in June 2017, in line with the market’s expectation. China’s (MCHI) consumer prices rose 1.5% year-over-year in June 2017.

China’s economy surprised the markets when it rose 6.9% year-over-year (or YoY) in 2Q17. This rise was the economy’s biggest in the last six consecutive quarters.