Mary Sadler

The global manufacturing sector seems to be slowing down, reflected in the May 2017 manufacturing PMI’s three-month low. Global economic activity had experienced an uptrend since 4Q16.

Retail sales in Malaysia rose 13.9% YoY (year-over-year) in June 2017, compared with its 13.6% gain in May 2017.

Manufacturing activity in Malaysia remained subdued in July 2017.

Consumer prices in Malaysia grew 3.6% in June 2017, compared with its 3.9% rise in May 2017.

Exports from Malaysia in June 2017 stood at 73.1 billion Malaysian ringgit (MYR) (about $17 billion as of August 11, 2017), or 10% higher YoY.

Malaysia’s trade surplus jumped to 9.9 billion Malaysian ringgit (MYR) (about $2.3 billion as of August 11, 2017) in June 2017—an 80% rise YoY.

Consumer prices in Colombia (GXG) rose 3.4% on a year-over-year basis in July 2017, lower than the 4.0% rise in June 2017.

Industrial confidence in Colombia (GXG) improved in June 2017 to -5.4% as compared to -8.8% in May 2017.

The business confidence in Colombia (GXG) in June 2017 remained in negative territory but recovered from lows in the last five months.

Colombia (GXG) signed a deal with the Mercosur trade bloc on July 21, 2017, to allow the import of limited quantities of certain products without a tariff in the Colombian market.

Colombian (GXG) exports stood at $2.8 billion in June 2017, a 0.8% increase year-over-year and an 18% decline on a month-over-month basis.

The big technology companies (XLK) are expected to continue dominating the markets (SPY) (QQQ) thanks to their size, innovations, acquisitions, and investments in 2017.

The Technology Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLK), which tracks technology stocks, has posted gains of about 20% so far in 2017, as of August 8, 2017.

Manufacturing activity in July 2017 South Korean (EWY) manufacturing activity dropped in the July 2017, with a sharp reduction in output. The Nikkei South Korea (EEM) manufacturing PMI decreased to 49.1 from 50.1 in June, according to an IHS Markit report. Manufacturing activity in South Korea returned to contraction, with reduced orders for its key export markets, […]

Mexico’s manufacturing activity in July 2017 In July 2017, Mexico’s (EWW) manufacturing activity as of July 2017 saw improvement in overall business conditions, though it weakened from the month prior. The manufacturing PMI (purchasing managers’ index) fell to 51.2 in July 2017 from 52.3 in June 2017, according to an IHS Markit report. New work orders and output […]

Improvement in operating conditions in Russia In July 2017, operating conditions in Russia improved at the fastest pace since January 2017. The Russian PMI (purchasing managers’ index) increased to 52.7 from 50.3 in June 2017. New orders and output saw the strongest expansion, each reaching a six-month high. The surprising improvement in the manufacturing sector comes […]

Manufacturing activity in Greece In July 2017, the manufacturing PMI (purchasing managers’ index) in Greece (GREK) remained steady. Operating conditions improved marginally, largely driven by a rise in output. The business conditions improved for a second consecutive month as of July 2017. Consumer sentiment is improving in Greece (EEM ), with improved tourism and growth […]

Manufacturing activity in Indonesia In July 2017, manufacturing activity in Indonesia (EIDO) fell at the fastest pace in 19 months, mainly due to sharp decline in its output. Indonesia’S (EEM) manufacturing PMI (purchasing managers’ index) fell to 48.6, compared with 49.5 in June 2017, according to an IHS Markit report. New orders also fell in July […]

Manufacturing activity in Brazil In July 2017, the manufacturing PMI (purchasing managers’ index) in Brazil (BRZU) continued to decline, falling to 50 from 50.5 in June 2017. July 2017 brought a slowdown in both output and new business. US companies doing business in Brazil include Walmart (WMT), ExxonMobil (XOM), Chevron (CVX), and Apple (AAPL). Brazil (EWZ) […]

Manufacturing activity in June 2017 A survey of the manufacturing sector in India suggests that the introduction of a GST (goods and services tax) affected its manufacturing activity in July 2017. India’s (INDY) manufacturing PMI fell to 47.9 in July from 50.9 in June, according to an IHS Markit report. In July 2017, the manufacturing […]

In this series, we’ll look at the performance of global (ACWI) manufacturing indexes and manufacturing activity in emerging markets.

Consumer confidence in Indonesia (EIDO) fell to 122.4 in June 2017 from an all-time high of 125.9 in May 2017.

Manufacturing activity in Indonesia (EEM) in July 2017 fell at its fastest pace in the last 19 months mainly due to the sharp decline in its output.

Exports from Indonesia (EIDO) in June 2017 stood at $11.6 billion, a fall of 11.8% on a year-over-year basis and 19% on a month-over-month basis.

Indonesia’s (EIDO) trade surplus in June 2017 stood at $1.6 billion as compared to $1.1 billion in the corresponding period last year and $0.57 billion in the previous month.

Inflation in Indonesia (EEM) in July 2017 stayed in line with the market expectation of 3.9%.

Business confidence in the manufacturing sector in South Korea (EWY) has remained stable at 78 in July 2017.

The South Korean (EWY) Manufacturing PMI (Purchasing Managers’ Index) rose to 50.1 in June 2017 compared to 49.2 in May 2017.

South Korea’s (EWY) unemployment rate rose to 3.8% in June 2017 compared to a four-month low of 3.6% in the previous month.

South Korea’s (EWY) consumer confidence continued to remain steady at 111.2 in July 2017 compared to 111.1 in the previous month.

Slower growth in exports, manufacturing, and investments impacted economic activity in South Korea (EWY) in 2Q17.

South Korean equities are soaring in 2017, with the Korea Composite Stock Price Index (or KOSPI), its benchmark index, reaching an all-time high of 2,451.5 in July 2017.

The service sector PMI (purchasing mangers’ index) in India (INDA) rose to 53.1 in June 2017, compared to 52.2 in May.

Uncertainty related to India’s new goods and services tax, which was implemented on July 1, 2017, seemed to affect India’s manufacturing activity in June 2017.

Consumer spending in India (INDA) is expected to grow via remonetization and other reforms undertaken by its government in 2017.

The trade gap in India (INDA) continued to widen in June 2017. In the month, it stood at $12.9 billion, a 59.7% rise year-over-year (or YoY) and a 6% fall month-over-month.

Consumer prices in India (INDY) rose 1.5% year-over-year in June 2017, slowing sharply from their 2.2% rise in May 2017.

Sensex, India’s (EPI) benchmark index, closed above the 32,000 mark for the first time on July 13, 2017.

The auto industry in Mexico depends on NAFTA, as major auto manufacturers in the United States have made Mexico their manufacturing and export hub.

Consumer confidence in Mexico seems have been hit by increasing prices in June 2017. Consumer confidence in the country fell to 84.4 in June, compared to 85.1 in May.

Mexico’s manufacturing activity posted a strong performance after its output, new orders, and employment picked up the pace in June 2017.

The Mexican peso (EWW) continued to rise in July 2017, touching an 18-month high following the easing of President Donald Trump’s anti-trade rhetoric in the last few months.

Consumer prices in Mexico (EEM) surged 6.31% year-over-year (or YoY) in June 2017, compared to their 6.16% rise YoY in May.

Global (ACWI) recovery in 2017 has helped labor market conditions to improve across OECD (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development) nations.

Economic activity in Mexico rose 3.1% year-over-year (or YoY) in May 2017, a rebound from its YoY fall of 0.57% in April 2017.

Business confidence in Russia (ERUS) in June 2017 continued to be stable month-over-month and higher than it was last year during this time.

Business activity in Russia’s (ERUS) service sector continued to increase in June but at a slower pace than the previous month.

Many macroeconomic indicators in Russia (ERUS) are showing signs of improvement in 2017.

The Russian ruble (ERUS) tends to move in line with crude oil prices (USO) (UCO).

Russia’s (ERUS) current account recorded a $0.3 billion gap in 2Q17 as compared to a $23.3 billion surplus in the previous quarter and a $2 billion surplus in the same period.

The consumer prices in Russia (ERUS) rose 4.4% on a year-over-year basis in June 2017 following a 4.1% rise in the previous month.

Improved industrial production and exports in Russia (RSX) have helped to lift the country’s economic activity in 2017.

Manufacturing activity in China expanded in June 2017 compared to its fall in May. Chinese manufacturing activity is showing a mixed outlook for economic growth in 2017.

The Chinese yuan (FXI) has surged to its highest level against the US dollar (SPY) in 2017 amid the mixed performances of its macroeconomic factors.

China’s (FXI) imports rose to $153.8 billion in June 2017, a 17.2% rise year-over-year (or YoY) and a 2% rise month-over-month.

Chinese (FXI) exports stood at $196.6 billion in June 2017, a rise of 11.3% year-over-year basis and a rise of 8.7% month-over-month.

Inflation in China was on a steady rise in June 2017, in line with the market’s expectation. China’s (MCHI) consumer prices rose 1.5% year-over-year in June 2017.

China’s economy surprised the markets when it rose 6.9% year-over-year (or YoY) in 2Q17. This rise was the economy’s biggest in the last six consecutive quarters.

The services sector is one of the most important sectors contributing to Brazil’s GDP and job creation, but its been facing structural issues and poor performance.

The Brazil Manufacturing PMI (purchasing managers’ index) fell slightly in June 2017 due to political turmoil in the country’s government.

Political chaos has affected confidence levels in Brazil, which saw its business confidence reach its lowest level in 2017 in June.

Brazil is currently engulfed in numerous domestic issues, including severe corruption allegations among politicians and high unemployment.

Brazil’s economy has found itself immersed in political scandals and corruption that have been affecting growth for the past few years.

Brazil’s (EWZ) trade balance since the beginning of 2017 indicates continuous expansion, with exports rising more than imports.

Consumer prices in Brazil (BRZU) grew by 3% YoY in June 2017, compared with 3.6% in May 2017.

Brazil seems to be giving mixed signals, with its index of economic activity (BRZU) dropping by 0.51% month-over-month in May 2017.

The Bank of Thailand is expecting economic growth to pick up in 2017 with improved domestic and external demand.

Consumer confidence in Thailand (THD) seems to be in a downtrend, as it continued to fall for two consecutive months as of June 2017.

Thailand’s trade balance continues to expand due to improvement in external demand and tourism in May 2017.

Thailand’s (EEM) inflation in June 2017 exceeded the market estimate of a 0.1% drop.

Thailand saw impressive growth in 1Q17 due in part to external demand and public investment. Its GDP rose 3.3% in 1Q17 as compared to a 3% rise in 4Q16.

The annual consumer inflation in Colombia is on a declining trend over the last year as of June. Consumer prices rose at a slower pace of ~4.0%.

President Mauricio Macri’s austerity measures seem to be impacting Argentina’s consumer confidence, as it saw another fall in June 2017.

Chile’s economy is highly dependent on copper mining activities. The recent long strike at BHP Billiton’s Escondida copper mine continues to impact Chile.

Peru’s economy continues to suffer in 2017 from the damage caused by floods in March 2017 due to the ENSO (El Niño Southern Oscillation).

Economic activity in Mexico (EWW) is expected to pick up in the rest of 2017, mainly due to improved exports.

On July 13, 2017, Brazil’s former President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva was sentenced to ten years in prison for graft.

Latin American (ILF) equities in June 2017 remained steady amid the political turmoil among its member nations.

Malaysian business confidence as reported by MIER (Malaysian Institute of Economic Research) gave an optimistic outlook for Malaysia after 1Q17.

Manufacturing activity in Malaysia fell to a record low in June 2017, primarily due to a drop in both output and new orders.

The Malaysian economy reported improved growth in 1Q17, largely supported by the rise in exports.

Malaysia’s (EWM) trade performance in May 2017 appeared to benefit from improved global (ACWI) trade.

Inflation in Malaysia (EWM) is now in decline after reaching an eight-year high in March 2017.

The Malaysian economy gave us an impressive growth story in 1Q17, with its increased investments in infrastructure and private sector expansion.

Qatar’s (QAT) economy continued to grow in 1Q17 amid improved oil prices since 2Q16. But more recently, oil prices have hit a downtrend.

The oil-rich economy of Saudi Arabia saw its growth contract in 1Q17, primarily due to its capped oil production agreement with OPEC.

The United Arab Emirates, one of the most diversified economies in the GCC (Gulf Cooperation Council), recorded a firm expansion in the non-oil sector in June 2017.

Middle East equities (GULF) continued to drop after neighboring Arab nations decided that they would impose new measures or sanctions on Qatar.

After a disappointing 1Q17 GDP figure in Colombia, economic activity was expected to gradually gain strength in 2017.

Colombia, an important Latin American (ILF) economy, is currently facing sluggish growth due to a decline in commodity prices (DBC) and political instability.

Annual consumer inflation in Colombia (GXG) has dropped for 12 consecutive months as of June 2017.

1Q17 economic growth in Colombia (ICOL) remained below market expectations.

After a year of contraction, the Nikkei South Korea (EWY) Manufacturing PMI increased to 50.1 in June 2017 compared to 49.2 in May.

Mexico’s manufacturing PMI increased to 52.3 in June 2017 compared to 51.2 in May.

Manufacturing activity in Russia dropped to 50.3 in June 2017 compared to 52.4 in May.

Brazilian (ILF) manufacturers remain firmly optimistic about the country’s output growth in the next 12 months.

The manufacturing PMI in Greece (GREK) continued to improve in June 2017, reaching 50.5 compared to 49.6 in May 2017.

The Nikkei Manufacturing PMI in Indonesia (EIDO) fell to 49.5 in June 2017 from 50.6 in May 2017.

The JPMorgan Global Manufacturing PMI remained stable at 52.6 in June 2017. A consistent number indicates steady improvement in global manufacturing operating conditions in June compared to May.

Several external factors are expected to impact Indonesia’s economy in 2017. The US government’s protectionist stance is expected to influence global trade.