Chart in Focus: Spain’s Services PMI in September 2017
According to a report by Markit Economics, the final Spain services PMI stood at 56.7 in September 2017 compared to 56.0 in August.
Macroeconomic Analysis
France’s Services PMI Strengthened in September after a Gradual Fall
The iShares MSCI France ETF (EWQ), which tracks France’s performance, rose 4% in September 2017.
Why Japan’s Services PMI Has Been Falling Gradually
According to the report provided by Markit Economics, Japan’s services PMI (EWJ) (DXJ) stood at 51.0 in September 2017 compared to 51.6 in August 2017.
Why Germany’s Services PMI Rose Strongly in September
The iShares MSCI Germany Small-Cap ETF (EWGS), which tracks the performance of small-cap stocks in Germany, rose 3.5% in September.
The Eurozone Services PMI Improved Strongly in September
The final Eurozone services PMI (purchasing managers’ index) rose strongly in September 2017. It stood at 55.8 in September 2017, up from 54.7 in August 2017.
A Look at the Catalonia-Troubled Euro This Week
It’s possible that political pressures could keep the euro under pressure as the economic calendar remains light in the Eurozone.
How Will Weaker UK Manufacturing Affect the Markets?
The United Kingdom’s manufacturing PMI stood at 55.9 in September 2017, compared to 56.9 in the previous month. The PMI figure was below the preliminary market expectation of 56.4.
Are Investors Positioning for a US Dollar Rally?
The US Dollar Index (UUP) closed at 93.64 last week, a gain of 0.82% and the fourth consecutive weekly rise. The dollar didn’t react to a loss of 33,000 jobs in September.
A Double Blow for Bond Markets?
The announcement of the GOP tax reform plan added to the pressure on bond markets.
Does Eurozone Manufacturing Signal a Healthier Economy?
According to a report by Markit Economics, the final Eurozone manufacturing PMI (purchasing managers’ index) improved strongly in September 2017.
Germany’s Rising Manufacturing Signals a Stronger Path Ahead
According to a report by Markit Economics, Germany’s final manufacturing PMI stood at 60.60 in September 2017, compared to 59.30 in August.
Insight into Japan’s Manufacturing in September 2017
Japan’s manufacturing PMI stood at 52.90 in September 2017, compared to 52.20 in August 2017. The PMI figure beat the preliminary market estimation of 52.5.
Does France’s Rising Manufacturing Mean a Strong Business Climate?
According to data provided by Markit Economics, the final Markit France manufacturing PMI (purchasing managers’ index) stood at 56.10 in September 2017, compared to 55.80 in August 2017.
Why Spain’s Manufacturing Recorded a Strong Rise in September
According to a report by Markit Economics, Spain’s manufacturing PMI rose to 54.3 in September 2017, compared to 52.4 in August.
Which Job Sectors Saw the Most Impact from Hurricanes Last Month?
As per the September ADP Employment Report, there was a major drop in the number of jobs created in the trade, transport, and utility sector.
ADP Jobs Data Dragged Lower by Hurricanes in September
As per the September ADP National Employment Report, the US private sector added 135,000 jobs during the month. The figure is a sharp decrease from 228,000 in August.
Why British Pound Speculators Turned Bullish after 22 Months
The British pound (FXB) depreciated against the US dollar for the week ended September 29. The pound (GBB) posted a weekly close of 1.3397, depreciating by 0.71% against the US dollar (UUP).
Why Speculators Continue to Bet against the US Dollar
The US Dollar Index (UUP) continued its rally last week, closing at 92.88 and posting a gain of 0.99% for the week.
Why FOMC’s Raphael Bostic Is Not Happy with Low Inflation Explanations
Bostic dealt with various reasons that have been cited as reasons for the lower level of inflation—even questioning the common ones.
Will Spanish Unrest Drag the Euro Lower?
The euro-dollar (FXE) closed the week ending September 29 at 1.1814 against the US dollar (UUP). German election results had a minor negative impact on the shared currency.
Why FOMC’s John Williams Sees No Impact of Balance Sheet Unwinding on Markets
In the long run, Williams said it would be difficult to predict how markets would react to the Fed’s balance sheet unwinding program.
FOMC’s James Bullard Has Three Questions for US Monetary Policy
Bullard said that the current growth rate in the US economy is likely to remain consistent with recent quarterly growth—near the 2% mark.
Could Rising Interest Rates Help the US Dollar?
Double dose of optimism for the US dollar The US dollar (UUP) was being written off before the beginning of September, as the Fed was expected to stay on hold and other major central banks were expected to start policy normalization. However, the Fed had a surprise in store for the market. The FOMC’s (Federal Open […]
Would Markets Be Prepared for a Central Bank Surprise?
Three central banks on a path to tightening After years of ultra-loose monetary policy, global markets are beginning to realize they may have to wave goodbye to easy money. In their efforts to save the global system from the 2007 financial crisis, and to revive economic growth, US, EU, UK, and Japanese central banks resorted […]
Effects of the North Korea–US Tension on Investors
Rising North Korea tensions In the last two months, tensions between the United and North Korea have continued to escalate, with both sides refusing to back down. North Korea has initiated a series of missile and nuclear tests, worsening tension in the region, and the US president has responded to these tests with strong warnings. […]
Understanding the Leading Credit Index
Understanding the Leading Credit Index The Conference Board LCI (Leading Credit Index), a constituent of the LEI (Leading Economic Index), is constructed based on the performance of six financial market instruments. These components track lending conditions in the US economy. Performance of the LCI Improving credit conditions are considered positive for the economy. When the LCI […]
The Link between the S&P 500 and the Leading Economic Index
The S&P 500 is stuck The S&P 500 (IVV) index has been stuck near the 2,500 level for more than a month now. The recent war of words between US president Donald Trump and North Korean foreign minister Ri Yong Ho has increased risk aversion. However, the index has been resilient despite the rise in volatility. […]
Consumers’ Business Condition Expectations Continue to Improve
Consumer expectations for business conditions Consumer expectations data, which forms the only non-leading component of the Conference Board Leading Economic Index (or LEI), is collected through two different surveys. One of these surveys is conducted by the University of Michigan and Reuters, where consumer expectations for economic conditions in the next 12 months are collected, […]
How Credit Spreads May React to the Fed’s September Statement
Another rate hike in 2017 The FOMC’s (Federal Open Market Committee) meeting on September 20 changed the outlook for bond markets (BND). It suggested that the Fed could be looking at another rate hike by the end of this year, along with a balance sheet unwinding program. Gains in August inflation (TIP) boosted Fed members’ […]
Tracking the Conference Board Leading Economic Index
In this series, we’ll analyze each component of the Conference Board Leading Economic Index and understand its implications for the consumer discretionary (XLY), industrial (XLI), and housing (XHB) sectors and the overall market (SPY).
Could Indian Economy Grow Faster after GST Implementation?
On a yearly basis, economic growth in India (INDA) showed a strong improvement of 9.2% in the first quarter of 2016.
Does China’s Gradual Economic Growth Support Emerging Nations?
China (FXI) (YINN) is an important emerging nation. The gradual improvement in its economic growth is a positive sign both for emerging nations (EEM) and developed nations (EFA).
How Emerging Economies Are Supporting Global Growth
According to the report provided by the World Bank in June 2017, global (ACWI) growth is expected to strengthen to 2.7% in 2017.
Are Hedge Funds Still Betting on Brazil after Bumpy Growth?
The Brazilian economy (EWZ) (BRZU) has faced a series of problems such as lower economic growth, higher inflation, political uncertainty, and higher unemployment.
Will a Coalition Government in Germany Derail the Euro?
The euro-dollar (FXE) closed the week ending September 22 at 1.2 against the US dollar (UUP).
Why the US Dollar Failed to Rally despite Increased Rate Hike Odds
The US Dollar Index (UUP) failed to rally aggressively despite a hawkish surprise from the US Fed.
Bank of Japan Sees Rising Political Uncertainty as a Risk
According to news reports, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe could be calling for a snap election next month to capitalize on the increased approval ratings in August.
Why Rising Japanese Inflation Isn’t Good Enough for Bank of Japan
The BOJ’s (Bank of Japan’s) qualitative and quantitative easing (or QQE) programs and a negative interest rate are helping to slowly revive Japanese inflation.
Update on the Bank of Japan’s September Policy Meeting
The Bank of Japan left its policy unchanged at its September meeting. By an 8–1 majority vote, the policy board decided to leave its policy and its QQE with a yield curve control unchanged.
What Does August Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence Indicate?
The Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence Index stood at 28.2 for September 2017 as compared to 27.7 in August 2017.
Why Maturity Bonds Reacted Differently to the Fed’s September Statement
The Fed’s balance sheet has $4.4 trillion in bond market securities, and it intends not to reinvest a small portion of the maturing securities every month.
Eurozone Services PMI Weakened: Will It Affect the Business Climate?
According to a report by Markit Economics, the Eurozone services PMI (purchasing managers’ index) stood at 54.7 in August as compared to 55.4 in July 2017.
Assessing the US Dollar’s Rally after the Latest Hawkish Fed Statement
The US dollar rallied after the latest FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) meeting statement was released on September 20.
Do Markets Agree with Janet Yellen on Low Inflation?
In her post-meeting press conference, US Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen seemed less worried than expected about the current state of US inflation.
Why Is FOMC Starting to Unwind Its Balance Sheet without a Target?
In the September 20 meeting, FOMC (US Federal Open Market Committee) finally announced the start date of its balance sheet unwinding program.
Why Spain’s Service Activity Dropped in August 2017
According to a report by Markit Economics, the Spain Services PMI (purchasing managers’ index) stood at 56 in August compared with 57.6 in July.
US Retail Sales Dropped: How Will It Affect the S&P 500 Index?
According to data provided by the U.S. Census Bureau, US retail sales fell 0.2% in August 2017.
What Affected Germany Services PMI in August?
According to data provided by Markit Economics, the August Germany Services PMI (purchasing managers’ index) stood at 53.5 compared with 53.1 in July 2017.
Why France’s Services PMI Fell in August
According to data provided by Markit Economics, the August France Services PMI (purchasing managers’ index) stood at 54.9 in August 2017 compared with 56 in July 2017.
How Japan’s Service Activity Trended in August 2017
According to the latest report by Markit Economics, the Japan Services PMI (EWJ) (DXJ) stood at 51.6 in August 2017, compared with 52 in July 2017.