Is the Uptick in August Inflation Enough for a Fed Hike in December?
Slow US inflation growth has been a concern for the US Fed and was one of the key reasons that the Fed raised interest rates only twice in 2017.
Macroeconomic Analysis
Will US Bond Yields Rally after the FOMC Statement?
The bond markets are the most impacted asset class by any changes to the Federal interest rates.
How Has the US Economy Fared since the Last FOMC Meeting?
Since the last FOMC meeting in July, economic conditions in the US have continued to improve.
Markets Are Confident on Fed Balance Sheet Trimming Announcement
In its efforts to revive the US economy from the Great Recession, the US Fed started purchasing US government-backed securities in 2008.
Will Inflation and Unemployment Push the BOE to Raise Rates?
Inflation in the United Kingdom has been on a higher trajectory with consumer prices in the United Kingdom rising 2.9% in August year-over-year.
Will Election Uncertainty Drive the Japanese Yen Lower?
The Japanese yen (JYN) continued to depreciate against the US dollar last week.
Asian Markets Are Mixed on September 19, Decreased Risk Appetite
On September 19, 2017, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.18% and ended at 3,356.84. The SPDR S&P China ETF (GXC) rose 1.1% and closed at 104.38.
Why the British Pound Rallied to 15-Month High
The British pound (FXB) appreciated against the US dollar for the week ending September 15.
Why the US Dollar Saw a Sharp Rebound
The US Dollar Index (UUP) witnessed a sharp recovery last week, rebounding from a two-year low of 91.0.
Asian Markets Rose amid China’s Strong New Loans Data
On September 18, 2017, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.53% and ended at 3,362.86. The SPDR S&P China ETF (GXC) rose 0.54% and closed at 103.20.
Why Was the Euro a Silent Spectator Last Week?
As per the latest Commitment of Traders (or COT) report, released on Friday, September 15 by the Chicago Futures Trading Commission (or CFTC), speculators turned bullish on the euro during the week.
The Bond Market’s Reaction to New Rate Hike Hopes
After three weeks of continuous falls, US bond yields rose in the week of September 10. The benchmark ten-year US Treasury yield (BSV) rose by 10 basis points to 2.20% but remains far from the December 2016 high of 2.64%.
Understanding the Ups and Downs of the US Dollar
The US dollar has been on a roller coaster ride over the last ten trading sessions. The US dollar (UUP) index hit a low of 90.99 on September 8.
Will the Sudden Rise in Inflation Change the US Fed’s Outlook?
The consumer price inflation (CPI) data reported on Thursday indicated an increase of 0.4% in August. The year-over-year rate improved from 1.7% to 1.9% for August.
Asian Markets Are Mixed amid North Korea Tensions
On September 15, 2017, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.53% and ended at 3,353.62. The SPDR S&P China ETF (GXC) fell 0.1% and closed at 102.65.
Asian Markets Pulled Back amid China’s Weak Economic Data
On September 14, 2017, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.38% and ended at 3,371.43. The SPDR S&P China ETF (GXC) rose 0.33% and closed at 102.75.
How ECB Tapering Could Impact European Bond Markets
The European bond market’s reaction to the ECB’s (European Central Bank) September 7 statement has so far been positive.
Why Did the ECB Downgrade Its Inflation Outlook?
In its September 7 policy meeting, the ECB (European Central Bank) downgraded the outlook for the EU economy’s inflation.
Why Brazil’s Services Activity Was in the Contraction Zone in August
Brazil’s (EWZ) services PMI was in the contraction zone in August 2017.
Why Strong European GDP Growth Momentum Gives Confidence to the ECB
In its September 7 meeting, the ECB (European Central Bank) governing council sounded optimistic about the strong growth momentum in the EU.
Why Are So Many Americans Quitting Their Jobs?
As per the latest JOLTS report, about 3.2 million Americans quit their jobs voluntarily last month. This is an increase of 0.1 million from the previous month.
Did Brazil’s Manufacturing Activity Improve in August?
According to a report by Markit Economics, the final Brazil manufacturing PMI (purchasing managers’ index) rose to 50.9 in August 2017 as compared to 50 in July.
Why China’s Services PMI Rose in August 2017
According to a report by Markit Economics, China’s Caixin services PMI rose to 52.7 in August 2017 as compared to 51.5 in July.
China’s Manufacturing PMI Indicated Stronger Business Climate
China’s manufacturing activity improved sharply in August 2017.
How Emerging Market Manufacturing Activity Is Trending
In this series, we’ll take a look at the manufacturing activity and service activity of major emerging economies (EEM) (VWO) in August 2017.
Indonesia Manufacturing PMI Saw Sharp Rise in August 2017
In August 2017, Indonesia’s (IDX) (ASEA) manufacturing activity saw a sharp rise in the overall business conditions as compared to a contraction in the previous month.
What Drove the Japanese Yen below 108 Last Week?
The Japanese yen gained ground against the US dollar last week, closing at 107.8 against the US dollar, which appreciated 0.56%.
The Reason behind the Sharp Gains in the British Pound
The British pound (FXB) appreciated against the US dollar for the week ended September 8, 2017. The pound closed at 1.32, appreciating 1.9% against the US dollar.
Why the US Dollar Could Be Poised for Further Losses
The US Dollar Index (UUP) failed to hold onto its gains from the previous week as investors were convinced that the Fed most likely wouldn’t make any changes to its monetary policy this year.
Why the Euro Rose to a 3-Year High Last Week
The euro closed the week ended September 8, 2017, at ~1.20 against the US dollar. It rose 1.48% against the US dollar as euro bulls took charge.
Asian Markets Started the Week on a Stable Note
On September 11, 2017, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.33% and ended at 3,376.42. The SPDR S&P China ETF (GXC) fell 0.53% and closed at 100.30.
More Temporary Relief from North Korea Tensions?
This week volatility (VXX) has continued to stick to its trend of sudden spikes and then dropping immediately.
Why the US Debt Ceiling Fight Has Been Postponed
The key reason for the debt ceiling deal was to approve aid to Hurricane Harvey victims. A US government shutdown could have adversely impacted relief operations.
UK’s Manufacturing PMI Rose Sharply: Is It a Turning Point?
The UK’s manufacturing PMI stood at 56.9 in August 2017 as compared to 55.3 in the previous month.
Asian Markets Were Mixed on September 8
On September 8, 2017, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.01% and ended at 3,365.24. The SPDR S&P China ETF (GXC) rose 0.78% and closed at 100.83.
Eurozone’s Manufacturing PMI Indicates Healthier Economy
According to a report by Markit Economics, the final Eurozone manufacturing PMI (purchasing managers’ index) improved in August 2017.
Could the Federal Reserve Surprise the Markets in September?
The US Federal Open Market Committee (or FOMC) is scheduled to meet on September 19 and 20 to discuss the current economic climate in the US and to decide whether any monetary policy adjustments are necessary.
What Germany’s Rising Manufacturing Activity Suggests
According to a report by Markit Economics, Germany’s final manufacturing PMI stood at 59.3 in August 2017 as compared to 58.1 in July.
What Does France’s Rising Manufacturing Activity Suggest?
According to data provided by Markit Economics, the final Markit France manufacturing PMI (purchasing managers’ index) stood at 55.8 in August 2017 compared to 54.9 in July 2017.
How Japan’s Manufacturing Activity Trended in August 2017
Japan’s manufacturing PMI stood at 52.2 in August 2017 as compared to 52.1 in July 2017.
Why Spain Manufacturing PMI Showed a Huge Drop in August 2017
According to a report by Markit Economics, Spain’s manufacturing PMI fell to 52.4 in August 2017 as compared to 54 in July.
Will the ECB Surprise Markets with a Tapering Announcement?
The governing council of the European Central Bank (or ECB) is scheduled to meet on September 7 in Frankfurt, Germany. The meeting will be followed by a press conference.
Why September Could Be Volatile for Financial Markets
August was a volatile month, filled with economic, political, and geopolitical uncertainty. September could turn out to be another nail-biter for the financial markets.
Asian Markets Lost Strength amid North Korea Tensions
On Tuesday, the Shanghai Composite started the day on a weaker note by opening lower. However, the market gained strength as the day progressed.
Can the British Pound Continue to Remain Strong This Week?
The British pound (FXB) appreciated marginally against the US dollar for the week ended September 1, 2017.
How to Make Sense of the US Dollar Rebound
The US Dollar Index (UUP) surprised the markets with its resilience despite a weak August jobs report.
Why the Euro Could Remain Volatile This Week
The euro (FXE) closed the week ended September 1, 2017, at 1.19 against the US dollar (UUP). It lost 0.56% against the US dollar.
Stanley Fisher’s Solution for Low Interest Rates
Stanley Fisher, vice chair of the U.S. Federal Reserve, has shared his views on low interest rates and some solutions to get rates back to normal levels.
Here’s Why the US Inflation Rate Is Troubling the Fed
In its latest monetary policy statement, the Fed admitted it would take longer than expected for inflation to reach its 2.0% target.
Could the Fed Announce Balance Sheet Shrinking in September?
The Fed, in its efforts to normalize policy, announced that it is starting the balance sheet unwinding program soon.