Can the Japanese Yen Rise against the US Dollar?
The Japanese yen (JYN) is the only currency that is unable to capture the weakness in the US dollar (UUP).
Macroeconomic Analysis
Will the Pound Gain with Signs of a Soft Brexit?
The British pound (FXB) (GBB) continued to appreciate against the US dollar in the first week of 2018, rising 0.41% against the dollar (UUP).
Factors That Are Driving the Euro Higher
The euro appreciated 0.27% against the US dollar (UUP) after posting double-digit gains against the US dollar in 2017.
Why the US Dollar Began 2018 with Losses
The US Dollar index (UUP) began 2018 on a negative note, posting losses against most of the major currencies.
Why Volatility Fell 16% in Week 1 of 2018
Every segment of the global financial markets began 2018 on a positive note. The global equity rally extended in the first week of the year.
How Many Americans Quit Their Jobs in November?
As per the latest JOLTS report, about 3.2 million American workers quit their jobs voluntarily in November.
What November Job Openings Say about US Economy
As per the January JOLTS report, there were 5.9 million job openings at the end of November.
US Dollar Index and Treasury Yields Early on January 8
The US Dollar Index opened January 8 on a stronger note and traded at one-week high price levels in the early hours.
Why Consumer Expectations Continued to Increase in November
Consumer expectations for business conditions Average consumer expectations for business conditions form the only component of the Conference Board LEI (Leading Economic Index) that is not a leading indicator. Consumer expectations are based on two separate surveys. One survey is conducted by the University of Michigan and Reuters, while the second survey is conducted by […]
What to Make of the Surprising Gains in the Euro in 2017
The euro–dollar (FXE) pair closed 2017 at 1.1998. It appreciated by 13% against the US dollar and posted close to 10% gains against the other major global currencies.
How the Leading Credit Index Tracks US Credit Conditions
Understanding the Leading Credit Index The Conference Board LCI (Leading Credit Index), a constituent in the LEI (Leading Economic Index), is published every month and tracks credit conditions in the US economy by following changes in six financial market instruments: the two-year swap (SHY) spread (real time) the three-month LIBOR[1.Intercontinental Exchange London Interbank Offered Rate] (SCHO) […]
How Could the US Dollar Fare in 2018?
The US dollar’s long-term outlook looks marginally better in 2018 than in 2017.
Building Permits Fall in November: Should We Worry?
Building permits and the economy The number of building permits issued each month is a constituent of the Conference Board LEI (Leading Economic Index). The construction and housing industry (PKB) is a major job provider in the economy, and changes in activity in the sector affect employment conditions and aggregate demand. A higher number of building permits is a leading […]
Analyzing the Institute of Supply Management’s New Orders Index
The Institute of Supply Management’s New Orders Index The ISM’s (Institute of Supply Management) New Orders Index is a monthly report on changes in new orders, supplier deliveries, inventories, production, and employment. New orders are a measure of future activity in any industry (VIS), as companies’ production depends on incoming orders. The ISM’s New Orders […]
Should We Worry about Rising Unemployment Claims?
Average weekly claims and the economy Average weekly unemployment claims are a constituent of the Conference Board LEI (Leading Economic Index). Claims have a 3% weight in the LEI. Weekly unemployment claims, if adjusted for seasonality, give investors a clear understanding of changes in the employment market. Though the Bureau of Labor Statistics releases a monthly […]
Analyzing the Yield Curve’s Ongoing Flatness
A December rate hike and a flattening yield curve The Fed rolled out another rate hike at its final meeting of 2017. The target range for the federal funds rate was increased by 0.25% to 1.25%–1.50%, and the Fed has signaled three more rate hikes in 2018. Two members dissented to the rate hike due to lower […]
What Rising Consumer Goods and Material Orders Signal
Manufacturers’ new orders for consumer goods and materials New orders for consumer goods and materials give investors an insight into the demand for goods and form an important constituent of the Conference Board LEI (Leading Economic Index). Changes to demand in the consumer goods sector impact the performance of FMCG (fast moving consumer goods) companies, which include large retailers such […]
US Dollar Index and Treasury Yields Early on January 4
After falling for two consecutive trading weeks, the US Dollar Index started this week on a weaker note and traded with mixed sentiment.
Will 2018 Be a Smooth Road for Investors?
2018 also brings with it many geopolitical events that could bring uncertainty and turn the market around.
Why Asian Markets Grabbed Investors’ Attention in 2017
Stock markets around the world rallied in 2017. Asian equities, in particular, grabbed investors’ attention in 2017, as they have been outperforming other markets.
How the US Dollar Index and Treasury Yields Performed on December 28
The US Dollar Index broke its three-week-long gaining steak this week and fell to three-week low price levels on Wednesday.
Germany ZEW Economic Sentiment Index in December 2017
According to the Centre for European Economic Research (or ZEW), the Germany ZEW Economic Sentiment Index is at 17.4 so far in December 2017.
Existing Home Sales: Strongest Pace in 11 Years
According to the latest report from NAR, existing home sales rose 5.6% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.81 million homes in November.
Why China’s Retail Sales Strengthened in November 2017
On a year-over-year basis, China’s retail sales strengthened in November 2017, according to a report by the National Bureau of Statistics of China.
Can Rising Eurozone Inflation Make European Central Bank Hawkish?
According to Eurostat, on a year-over-year basis, inflation in the Eurozone (VGK) (IEV) (EZU) was 1.5% in November 2017 compared to 1.4% in October 2017.
Housing Market: Builders’ Confidence Reaches an 18-Year High
For November, the NAHB Housing Market Index was reported as 74—an increase of five from October and an 18-year high.
A Look at Germany’s Ifo Business Climate Index in December 2017
According to a report provided by the Ifo Institute for Economic Research, the Germany Ifo Business Climate Index is at 117.2 so far in December compared to 117.6 in November 2017.
Key Economic Indicators Released in the Past Week
In this series, we’ll analyze inflation for three key economies and look at retail sales in the United States and China. We’ll also look at some key economic sentiment indexes.
Should Investors Be Concerned about Fewer Building Permits?
In November 2017, housing units (XHB) authorized by building permits were at a seasonally adjusted rate of 1.298 million—a decrease of 1.4% from October.
Here’s What Drove the Euro Higher Last Week
The euro (FXE) closed the week ended December 22, 2017, at 1.1864, appreciating 0.94% against the dollar (UUP).
Can the US Dollar Gain Back Lost Ground This Week?
The US Dollar index (UUP) failed to capitalize last week on the optimism from Congress passing the US tax reform bill.
The Curious Case of Low Inflation in 2017
The last statement from the US Fed, which was released with its recent rate hike decision, cited lower levels of inflation but hopes that the inflation target could be achieved in 2018.
A Look at Capacity Utilization across US Industries in November
In the November capacity utilization report, the manufacturing sector remained strong with 76.4% capacity utilization, the highest level since May 2008.
Strength of the Manufacturing Sector: Purchasing Managers’ Index
This has been one of the best years since 2004 for manufacturing activity, viewed through the Purchasing Managers’ Index (or PMI).
Will US Unemployment Rate Fall below 4% in 2017?
A lower unemployment rate is one of the key objectives of the Fed. In 2017, the unemployment rate fell, reaching 4.1% in its latest November reading.
Why Industrial Production Fell from 1.2% to 0.2% in November
The Federal Reserve released its November industrial production report on December 15, 2017. The report indicated that industrial production improved 0.2% in November.
What Rising Services Activity Means for the US Economy
After reaching a lifetime high in October 2017, the ISM (Institute of Supply Management) non-manufacturing index fell 2.7 percentage points to 57.4%.
A Double Dose of Tightening from the Fed in 2017
In its December monetary policy statement, the Fed projected three interest rate hikes in 2018 and three in 2019, depending on the incoming economic data.
How the US Economy Performed in 2017
This year has been a year to watch the US economy. Hopes for change, tax reform, and industry-friendly policies drove the markets (SPY) higher.
US Dollar Index and Treasury Yields Are Stable in the Early Hours
After gaining for three trading weeks, the US Dollar Index started this week on a weaker note and fell in the first four trading days of the week.
Brazil’s Manufacturing Activity Improves in November 2017
Brazil’s manufacturing activity in November According to data provided by Markit Economics, Brazil’s manufacturing PMI (purchasing managers’ index) rose to 53.5 in November from 51.2 in October, beating the estimate of 52.5 and marking the strongest rise in five years. November’s improvement in manufacturing activity was mainly due to the following factors: production output and volume […]
How the Bank of Japan Could Have an Impact on the Yen This Week
For the week ended December 15, the Japanese yen (FXY) closed at 112.58 against the US dollar (UUP), appreciating by 0.79%.
Analyzing Indonesia’s Manufacturing Activity in November 2017
Indonesia’s manufacturing activity in November According to a report by Markit Economics, Indonesia’s (IDX) (ASEA) manufacturing PMI (purchasing managers’ index) rose to 50.4 in November from 50.1 in October 2017, marking the fourth consecutive month of expansion. In November, Indonesia’s manufacturing PMI was driven by the following: production output and volume rose, marking a second consecutive month of expansion in […]
Why Russia’s Service Sector Strengthened in November 2017
Russia’s service sector in November According to a report by Markit Economics, Russia’s service PMI (purchasing managers’ index) showed a solid improvement in November 2017, rising to 57.4 from 53.9 in October. The figure beat the market expectation of 55.0 and marked the highest rise since January 2017. The strong improvement in Russia’s service PMI […]
Why China’s Service Sector Activity Rose in November
China’s service sector in November According to data provided by Markit Economics, China’s service PMI (purchasing managers’ index) stood at 51.9 in November, compared with 51.2 in October 2017. It beat the preliminary market estimate of 51.5. China’s November service PMI updates are as follows: production output and volume improved new business orders improved employment in […]
A Look at Brazil’s Service Sector in November 2017
Brazil’s service sector in November According to a report by Markit Economics, Brazil’s service PMI (purchasing managers’ index) continued to fall in November. A level below 50 indicates contraction in economic activity, and a level above 50 indicates expansion in economic activity. Brazil’s service PMI fell to 46.9 in November from 48.8 in October. The contraction […]
Key Economic Indicator Data Released Last Week
In this series, we’ll analyze major emerging nations’ manufacturing and service PMIs (purchasing managers’ indexes).
What Drove the Euro Higher Last Week?
The total net speculative bullish positions on the euro (EUFX) increased from 93,106 contracts to 113,889 contracts in the previous week.
Why the US Dollar Resisted the Fed’s Latest Rate Hike
According to Reuters, the US dollar (USDU) net short positions increased to ~-$7.8 billion during the week ended December 15 compared to ~-$4.3 billion in the previous week.
US Dollar Index and Treasury Yields Rose in the Early Hours
After gaining for three consecutive trading weeks, the US Dollar Index started this week on a mixed note.