Why Improving Economic Conditions Aren’t Enough for the FED
In the last few months, the performance of the US economy has been impressive. The unemployment rate fell to 4.3% in August.
Macroeconomic Analysis
How Germany Ifo Business Climate Index Trended in August
According to the Ifo Institute, the Germany Ifo Business Climate Index stood at 115.9 in August 2017 as compared to 116 in July.
Asian Markets Are Stable on September 1
On September 1, 2017, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.19% and ended at 3,367.12. The SPDR S&P China ETF (GXC) rose 0.32% and closed at 100.65.
Why Eurozone’s Flash Manufacturing PMI Could Be Signaling a Change
According to a report by Markit Economics, the flash Eurozone manufacturing PMI (purchasing managers’ index) improved in August 2017.
How Germany’s Manufacturing Activity Was Trending in August 2017
According to a report by Markit Economics, Germany’s flash manufacturing PMI stood at 59.4 in August 2017 as compared to 58.1 in July.
How France’s Flash Manufacturing Activity Is Trending
According to data provided by Markit Economics, the flash Markit France manufacturing PMI (purchasing managers’ index) stood at 55.8 in August 2017 compared to 54.9 in July 2017.
Asian Markets Are Mixed on August 31
On August 31, 2017, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.08% and ended at 3,360.81. The SPDR S&P China ETF (GXC) rose 0.83% and closed at 100.33.
These Key Economic Indicators Were Released Last Week
In this series, we’ll take a look at the flash manufacturing PMI for the US, Germany, France, and the Eurozone for August 2017.
Why the Euro Is Turning Out to Be a Preferred Safe Haven
Volatility in the currency markets spiked after news of the North Korean missile launch on August 29. Demand for safe haven currencies like the Japanese yen (FXY) and Swiss franc (FXF) picked up in the Asian session.
North Korea Tensions: Will Demand for Safe Havens Rise?
In the financial markets, there are a few financial assets whose demand increases dramatically in times of uncertainty.
What Stocks Should Be on Your Radar amid Geopolitical Tensions
Renewed tensions arising out of North Korea’s missile launch on Tuesday had a major impact on volatility. Asian markets have declined more than 1% as risk aversion dominated markets.
Asian Markets Are Mixed amid Improved Market Sentiment
On August 30, 2017, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.05% and ended at 3,363.63. The SPDR S&P China ETF (GXC) rose 0.02% and closed at 99.50.
A Look at Consumer Expectations amid Risk Aversion
Consumer expectations for business conditions Consumer expectations form the only component of the Conference Board Leading Economic Index (or LEI) based on business expectations. Referring to consumer expectations regarding future economic conditions, their measurement is an average of two surveys. One survey, conducted by the Conference Board, records consumer expectations for business conditions six months […]
Asian Markets Are Weak on August 29 amid Geopolitical Tension
On August 29, 2017, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.08% and ended at 3,365.23. The SPDR S&P China ETF (GXC) fell 0.71% and closed at 99.48.
What Financial Markets Predict for the US Economy
Understanding the Leading Credit Index The Conference Board Leading Credit Index (or LCI), which tracks lending conditions in the economy, is reported monthly. The index has six constituents: 2-Year Swap Spread (SHY) (real time) LIBOR[1.London Interbank Offered Rate] 3-month (SCHO) less 3-month Treasury-bill (VGSH) yield spread (real time) debit balances in margin accounts at broker dealers […]
Could the S&P 500’s Stalled Ascent Derail Economic Expansion?
The risk scenario The S&P 500’s rally has stalled just shy of 2,500. Investors are drawn to to riskier assets such as equities when they expect further expansion in the economy. The S&P 500 (SPY), which comprises the 500 largest stocks in the United States, is a constituent of the Conference Board Leading Economic Index […]
Round 3: Will Brexit Negotiations Help the British Pound?
The British pound (FXB) remained unchanged against the US dollar for the week ending August 25. The pound (GBB) closed the week at 1.2887.
Tax Reforms and Jobs Could Drive the Last Week of Summer
Any negative news from the jobs report will be foreshadowed by the tax reform news. It’s the last jobs report before the September FOMC meeting.
Is the US Dollar Dying a Slow Death?
The US Dollar Index closed the week ending August 25 at 92.68—compared to 93.36 in the previous week.
Mario Draghi Didn’t Stop the Appreciating Euro
European Central Bank President Mario Draghi gave didn’t comment about removing monetary stimulus in his speech at the Jackson Hole symposium.
Why Were Asian Markets Mixed on August 28?
On August 28, the Shanghai Composite opened the day above the important resistance of 3,300 and rose to fresh 20-month high price levels.
Asian Markets Rose in the Week Ending on August 25
After regaining strength last week, China’s Shanghai Composite Index continued to gain in the week ending on August 25.
Why Interest Rate Spreads Are Growing
Reduced odds for another rate hike in 2017 Fears of flattening yield curves and rising interest rates have completely vanished in recent weeks. The FOMC’s (Federal Open Market Committee) July meeting statement confirmed the concerns about lagging inflation (TIP), making another rate hike in 2017 less likely. Focus has turned to the Fed’s balance sheet reduction […]
Analyzing the Eurozone’s Inflation in July 2017
On a year-over-year basis, the Eurozone Inflation Index was at 1.3% in July 2017—the same as in June, according to data provided by Eurostat.
UK Inflation Fell: Possible Rough Path Ahead
According to a report by the Office for National Statistics, on a monthly basis, the United Kingdom’s inflation fell 0.1 in July 2017.
Why the US Government Has Been Shut Down Before
A failure to raise the debt ceiling will likely result in a US government shutdown and a default by the US, which would be catastrophic for the global economy and financial markets (VTI) (USMV).
How the US’s Debt Has Become So Big
The US debt-to-GDP ratio now stands at 106.1%, which means that the total US debt is more than the annual US GDP.
Will Jackson Hole in 2017 Be the Beginning of the End of Monetary Accommodation?
This year’s theme for the annual Jackson Hole Symposium is “Fostering a Dynamic Global Economy.”
Why Draghi Is a Person of Interest at Jackson Hole
ECB President Mario Draghi is scheduled to speak at this year’s Jackson Hole Symposium on August 25—after a hiatus of three years.
Mixed Asian Markets, Shanghai Composite Fell the Most in 2 Weeks
China’s Shanghai Composite Index started this week on a stronger note after regaining strength last week. However, it consolidated on August 22–23.
Here Are the Short-Term Risks to the Bond Markets
The key risk faced by bond markets is a sudden fall in prices.
Will the Fed Repeat Its Taper Tantrum Mistakes?
In this cycle of expansion after the great recession, the Fed has started the process of monetary tightening.
Will a Hawkish Bank of England Raise Interest Rates Soon?
In the recent Bank of England (or BOE) policy meeting, interest rates were left unchanged at 0.25%.
Will ECB’s Tightening Lead to Bond Market Sell-Off?
If the European economy continues to improve at the current pace, the QE program could be scaled down to 40.0 billion euros per month.
Washington or Wyoming: What Will Drive Markets This Week?
The last two weeks have been eventful for financial markets (SPY).
Here’s Why the British Pound Could Be Headed for Further Losses
The British pound (FXB) was one of the worst performers in the week ending August 18.
Will Draghi Lift or Drown the Euro This Week?
The euro-dollar pair (FXE) closed the week ending August 18 at 1.18 against the US Dollar (UUP).
The Fed Could Announce Balance Sheet Reduction Plan in September
In its June meeting, FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) members detailed plans to shrink the $4.5 trillion balance sheet.
Why Inflation Remains a Huge Concern for FOMC Members
Members of the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) attributed the recent slowdown in inflation growth to idiosyncratic factors.
What Happened to the Eurozone Services PMI in July
The Eurozone Services PMI remained unchanged in July 2017, coming in at 55.4 but missing the preliminary market estimation.
Asian Markets Are Mixed on August 17, China Regains Strength
China’s Shanghai Composite Index fell last week. On August 17, 2017, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.68% and ended at 3,268.43.
Why Spain’s Services PMI Declined in July
The Spain Services PMI stood at 57.6 in July, compared with 58.3 in June. The PMI figure didn’t meet the preliminary market estimation of 58.3.
New York Fed President William Dudley Discussed Inflation
In his speech on August 10, New York Fed President William Dudley joined the group of FOMC members to ease concerns about slowing inflation (TIP).
Behind the France Services PMI in July
The July France Services PMI (purchasing managers’ index) stood at 56.0 in July 2017, compared with 56.9 in June 2017, meeting the initial estimate of 55.9.
What Happened to Germany’s Services PMI in July?
The July Germany Services PMI stood at 53.1, compared with 54.0 in June 2017, falling short of the preliminary market’s estimation of 53.5.
The Latest Key Economic Indicators from Developed Nations
In this series, we’ll analyze the services PMIs for major developed nations including the US, France, Germany, Spain, the Eurozone, Japan, and the UK.
Asian Markets Were Mixed on August 16, China Pulled Back
After gaining for seven consecutive trading weeks, China’s Shanghai Composite Index fell last week. The index started this week on a stronger note.
Will the Japanese Yen Appreciate Further This Week?
The Japanese yen (JYN) was back in demand as geopolitical tensions took center stage last week.
Why the British Pound Has an Important Week Ahead
The British pound (FXB) had another negative week as a dovish statement from the Bank of England continued to drag the currency lower.
Asian Markets Buoyed by Increased Risk Appetite
After gaining for seven consecutive trading weeks, China’s Shanghai Composite Index fell last week. But despite weak economic data, the index rebounded on Monday.