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Why Goldman Sachs Has Revised Its Gold Forecast Higher
Goldman Sachs (GS) has long been bullish on gold. In March 2018, the bank turned positive on gold (IAU) for the first time in more than five years. It’s since been advising investors to turn defensive due to its forecast of increased risk, recommending that investors go for high-quality stocks and gold.
US Tech Stocks Regain Position as ‘Most Crowded Trade’ in May
According to the latest Bank of America Merrill Lynch survey, US tech was the most crowded space, displacing short European equities (HEDJ).
JPMorgan Chase Expects Gold to Go Higher in 2019
JPMorgan Chase (JPM) thinks that gold prices (GLD) should go higher. Right now, the Fed is patient on rate hikes.
Shorting European Equities Is Crowded—Could It Mean a Reversal?
According to the latest Bank of America Merrill Lynch survey, shorting European equities has been the most crowded trade for two months in a row.
Gundlach Predicts What the Next Downturn Will Look Like
Jeffrey Gundlach believes that if the equities do well this year, emerging market equities will do better than US stocks (SPY) (DIA).
These Assets Could Be Attractive If Fed Rethinks Inflation Course
The Federal Reserve’s two main objectives are stabilizing prices and maximizing employment.
Why Gundlach Thinks It’s Time to Be a Long-Term US Dollar Bear
During his “Highway to Hell” webcast, Jeffrey Gundlach put forth several arguments for a bearish long-term outlook for the US dollar (UUP).
Goldman Sachs: Why It’s a ‘Pound-the-Table Time’ to Buy Gold
Gold prices (GLD) fell by over 2.5% in the week ended March 1, their biggest weekly decline since August 2018.
JPM Likes Gold, as Fed Might Let Inflation Overshoot Target
The Federal Reserve has two main objectives: price stability and maximizing employment.
Could Central Bank Buying Be a Major Driver for Gold in 2019?
In this article, we’ll see if central bank buying can drive gold demand in 2019 like it did in 2018.
What’s the Upside for Gold from the Fed’s Meeting This Week?
Gold prices rose ~1.4% to a seven-month high on January 25. Gold prices briefly breached the psychologically important $1,300 per ounce mark.
Why Gundlach and Einhorn Are Betting on Gold
Jeffrey Gundlach said during Barron’s 2019 Roundtable that “Gold and commodities broadly should benefit this year.”
Ray Dalio’s Take on China
Ray Dalio discussed his take on the slowdown in China and how it could impact worldwide growth at the World Economic Forum in Switzerland.
Can the US Dollar Remain the Most Crowded Trade?
For the second straight month, the so-called FAANG and BAT stocks weren’t the most crowded trades.
Could the US Dollar Work in Gold’s Favor in 2019?
Like the Fed’s policies, the strong US dollar (UUP) impacted gold prices (GLD) this year.
Why J.P. Morgan Is Bullish on Gold in the Second Half of 2019
In contrast to Bank of America Merrill Lynch’s bullish view on gold (GLD) in 2019, JPMorgan Chase (JPM) expects gold (NUGT) and silver’s (SLV) performance to remain to lukewarm—at least in the first half of 2019.
What Makes Goldman Sachs ‘Extremely Positive’ on Gold in 2019?
Goldman Sachs (GS) turned positive on gold (GLD) for the first time in more than five years back in March.
The Gold Equities Credit Suisse Favors in 2019
Credit Suisse (CS) is positive about gold prices (IAU) in 2019. The bank expects gold prices to average $1,275 per ounce in 2019 and $1,300 in 2020.
Time to Go Gold? Metal Outshines Risk Assets on Growth Concerns
For most of the year, gold prices (GLD) have languished, thanks to a strong US dollar (UUP), hawkish Fed rate hike outlook, and strength in the equity markets.
US Dollar Overtakes FAANG and BAT Stocks as Most Crowded Trade
According to the Bank of America Merrill Lynch Survey, the US dollar (UUP) replaced the FAANG and BAT stocks as the most crowded trade.
Why Is Goldman Sachs Extremely Sold on Gold in 2019?
In a report published on November 26, Goldman Sachs (GS) stated that commodities (COMT) could climb 17% in the coming months.
Could Market Risks Restore Investor Confidence in Gold in 2019?
As we’ve discussed in this series, market uncertainty is increasing after an unusually calm 2017 and part of 2018.
Why the US Dollar Could Be Bullish for Gold in 2019
The US dollar (UUP) has been on an upward trajectory in 2018 so far. Year-to-date, it’s up ~7.4% compared to other major global currencies.
Could Market Risks Restore Investors’ Focus on Gold and Miners?
After a calm period in stock markets, downside risks have increased.
Could Gold Rise despite a Strengthening US Dollar?
The US dollar (UUP) has been on a fairly upward trajectory in 2018 thus far.
Will Physical Gold Demand Be Deciding Factor for Gold in H2 2018?
The demand for gold in India (INDA) was lukewarm in the first half of the year, mainly due to stronger equity markets and higher gold prices measured in rupees.
Dalio Predicts Weaker Dollar due to Budget Deficit Financing
The White House has acknowledged that the deficit is growing faster than it had expected.
Is US Dollar Outlook Dimming on ‘De-Dollarization’ Concerns?
The US dollar (UUP) has been on a fairly upward trajectory in 2018 thus far.
How Will the US Dollar and Gold React amid Escalating Tensions?
gold has not been able to draw safe-haven bids in 2018 so far, as the strong US dollar (UUP) keeps weighing it down.
Could Trade Tension Support the US Dollar Again?
The US dollar (UUP) made a comeback on September 14 after reports suggested that Donald Trump is planning to impose tariffs on Chinese goods worth $200 billion, despite trade talks.
Why the Bottom for Gold Could Be Close
The SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD) has fallen ~8.4% year-to-date and ~11.5% from its April peak.
Could Indian Gold Demand Return Gold’s Luster in H2 2018?
While India imported 41 metric tons of gold in August 2017, this figure more than doubled to 92 metric tons in August.
Gold: Support or Pressure from Emerging Markets and Trade War?
In August, gold prices saw a fifth consecutive monthly decline, which is the longest streak in the last five and a half years.
These Analysts Expect Gold Prices to Rebound on Short Squeeze
UBS strategist Joni Teves believes that the shorting of gold (GLD) “should ultimately be supportive” for the metal and allow “ample space for positions to be rebuilt ahead.”
Gold Gains on US-Mexico Trade Deal—What’s the Upside?
Gold prices (GLD) recorded their first weekly gain last week after six weeks of continued losses. What changed?
Turkey’s Crisis Didn’t Increase Gold’s Safe-Haven Bids
Usually, gold (GLD) gains due to economic or political turmoil. In 2018, gold has been behaving more like a risk asset.
Why an Autumn Rally in Gold Could Be around the Corner
While the US dollar (USDU) has been gaining as a safe-haven asset as trade concerns heighten, a further increase could leave the dollar vulnerable.
Could Physical Demand Come to Gold’s Rescue in H2 2018?
The rupee has depreciated by ~7.0% year-to-date against the US dollar. This event caused local gold prices to rise.
Is the US Dollar Topping Out to the Benefit of Gold?
Although the US dollar has been gaining as a safe-haven asset as trade concerns heighten, a further escalation could leave it vulnerable.
Why Gold’s Weakness Could Reverse
Investors, market participants, and analysts have been puzzled by gold’s weakness in recent months despite escalating trade war tensions.
US Dollar Climbs to Fresh One-Year High, Pressures Gold
The US Dollar Index (UUP) (USDU) rose to a one-year high on July 19 to 95.4 after Powell’s comments and the Philadelphia Fed survey findings.
Fund Managers Believe Gold Is Undervalued: Time to Buy?
A record number of fund managers in the BAML (Bank of America Merrill Lynch) July survey believe that gold is undervalued.
Gold’s Impact: Is the US Dollar Rally Running Out of Steam?
The US Dollar Index (DXY)(UUP) has risen 8.3% since its low on February 15.
US Dollar Is Dominating the Forex Markets
The US Dollar Index (UUP) managed a sharp recovery last week. The appreciation seemed to be due to tariff announcements.
What’s Driving the US Dollar Higher?
The US Dollar Index (UUP) continued to appreciate but did so slowly in the week that ended on May 25.
Can the US Dollar Continue to Surge Higher?
Last week, the US dollar index bounced back from a minor pullback in the week ended May 11, aided by the rise of bond yields.
What Drove the US Dollar Lower Last Week
The US dollar index (UUP) took a breather last week, closing at 92.44, 0.03% higher than its close of 92.41 in the week ended May 4.
Could the US Dollar Slump Be Short Lived?
The US dollar depreciated against its major trading-partner currencies after the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on May 10 that US consumer prices grew 0.1% in April after falling 0.1% in March.
Dollar Bears Under Pressure as Short Squeeze Continues
In April, the US dollar index posted one of its best monthly gains (2.0%) since November 2016, and it looks set to continue with the trend this month.
Why Did the US Dollar Appreciate with Bond Yields?
The US dollar index saw one of the best weeks in over a year as the US dollar surged past many major currencies.
Why the Euro Slid despite the European Central Bank’s Optimism
The ECB (European Central Bank) left its policy unchanged at its April meeting, squashing any hopes for tightening in the near term.
US Dollar Falls after Trump Comments on April 16
The US dollar (UUP) came under pressure after Donald Trump fired off a tweet about Russia and China on Monday.
Why Gradual Rate Hike Possibility Hurt the US Dollar
The US dollar depreciated against its major trading partner currencies after the US inflation (TIP) report was released on Tuesday.
Why the US Dollar Could Gain This Week
According to Reuters’ calculations, the US dollar’s net short positions decreased to -$11.5 billion compared to -$11.3 billion in the previous week.
Will Major Lenders Be Concerned about US Debt Levels?
As we discussed in the previous part of this series, China (FXI), Japan (EWJ), Ireland, and the Cayman Islands hold the majority of the debt issued to the United States.
Equity Market Rout Stalled: Will US Dollar Resume Its Slide?
The US Dollar Index, whose slide had been stalled in the past two weeks, saw losses as markets recovered last week.
What’s Boosted the US Dollar
US dollar posts second consecutive weekly gain Last week, the US dollar index, which has seen continuous declines in the last two months, managed to close in positive territory for a second consecutive week. Increased demand for safe-haven assets during the recent equity market rout boosted demand for the US dollar in foreign exchange markets. In […]
How the US Dollar Could React to a US Government Shutdown
According to the January 19 Commitment of Traders report, released by the Chicago Futures Trading Commission, large speculators have turned bearish on the US dollar.
Why the US Dollar Is Losing Its Appeal
The US Dollar Index (UUP) continued its decline, posting a fourth consecutive weekly loss during the week ended January 12.
Why the US Dollar Began 2018 with Losses
The US Dollar index (UUP) began 2018 on a negative note, posting losses against most of the major currencies.
How Could the US Dollar Fare in 2018?
The US dollar’s long-term outlook looks marginally better in 2018 than in 2017.
What’s the Outlook for the US Dollar in 2018?
Overall in 2017, the dollar index fell 9.8%.
Can the US Dollar Gain Back Lost Ground This Week?
The US Dollar index (UUP) failed to capitalize last week on the optimism from Congress passing the US tax reform bill.
Why the US Dollar Resisted the Fed’s Latest Rate Hike
According to Reuters, the US dollar (USDU) net short positions increased to ~-$7.8 billion during the week ended December 15 compared to ~-$4.3 billion in the previous week.
Will the US Dollar Surge Higher after FOMC Meeting?
The US Dollar Index (UUP) continued its ascent against the other major currencies as investors positioned for a rate hike from the Fed and reacted to the increased possibility of tax reforms by the end of this year.
Why the Fed’s Beige Book Is Relevant to Investors
The Beige Book, a source of data for the FOMC, gives investors in the bond and currency markets an idea of the future course of the Federal Reserve’s policy.
Will the US Dollar Surge on Tax Reform News?
The US Dollar Index (UUP) managed to close the week ending December 1 in positive territory with a gain of 0.14%.
What Decreasing Weekly Unemployment Claims Say about the US Economy
In the Conference Board Leading Economic Index, the average weekly unemployment claims have 3.0% weight.
Reasons behind a 3rd Weekly Loss for the US Dollar
The US Dollar Index (UUP) had another bad week as traders offloaded long dollar positions amid tax reform uncertainty last week.
Could US Dollar Recover This Week?
The US Dollar Index (UUP) continued to struggle as the fate of US tax reform remains uncertain.
How Bitcoin Differs from Other Currencies
Bitcoin has been rallying for the past year, with some proponents advocating that it could replace fiat currencies in the future.
Will US Dollar Survive Tax Reform Uncertainty?
The US Dollar Index (UUP) lost steam last week after posting three consecutive weekly gains.
US Dollar Survived Dovish FOMC Statement, Lackluster Jobs Report
The US dollar index (UUP) remained supported last week despite a dovish FOMC statement and a lower-than-expected rise in monthly non-farm payrolls.
Why the British Pound Fell—Despite the Bank of England’s Rate Hike
The British pound depreciated 1.41% against the US dollar after the policy statement from the BOE (Bank of England) on November 2.
How the US Dollar Could React to November FOMC Meeting
The US Dollar Index (UUP) continued its ascent last week.
Is Rise in September’s Weekly Jobless Claims a Reason to Worry?
The average weekly unemployment claims have a weight of 3.0% in the Conference Board Leading Economic Index (or LEI).
Dan Loeb: S&P 500 Valuation Isn’t a Concern
The S&P 500 Index is presently trading at a trailing price-to-earnings ratio of 22.7x.
Does a Strengthening Chinese Yuan Indicate a Stable Economy?
China’s yuan is strengthening gradually against the US dollar. In the last year, it has risen 2.2% against the US dollar.
What to Expect from the US Dollar This Week
The US Dollar Index (UUP) has bounced back from the shallow low that it saw the previous week.
Has the US Dollar Rally Ended for Now?
The US Dollar Index (UUP) turned lower again in last week after a surprise rally following the October jobs report on October 6.
Are Investors Positioning for a US Dollar Rally?
The US Dollar Index (UUP) closed at 93.64 last week, a gain of 0.82% and the fourth consecutive weekly rise. The dollar didn’t react to a loss of 33,000 jobs in September.
ADP Jobs Data Dragged Lower by Hurricanes in September
As per the September ADP National Employment Report, the US private sector added 135,000 jobs during the month. The figure is a sharp decrease from 228,000 in August.
Why Speculators Continue to Bet against the US Dollar
The US Dollar Index (UUP) continued its rally last week, closing at 92.88 and posting a gain of 0.99% for the week.
Is the Fed Headed for More Uncertainty?
In September, Fed Vice Chair Stanley Fisher submitted his resignation, citing personal circumstances, and will step down in mid-October.
Could Rising Interest Rates Help the US Dollar?
Double dose of optimism for the US dollar The US dollar (UUP) was being written off before the beginning of September, as the Fed was expected to stay on hold and other major central banks were expected to start policy normalization. However, the Fed had a surprise in store for the market. The FOMC’s (Federal Open […]
How Unemployment Claims Affected the Leading Economic Index
Weekly claims inch higher Average weekly unemployment claims are among the indicators used in the Conference Board Leading Economic Index (or LEI). Weekly unemployment claims, which are seasonally adjusted, give an idea of unemployment trends. Unemployment data has a weight of 3% in the LEI. We should pay attention to weekly claims in addition to non-farm […]
Why the US Dollar Failed to Rally despite Increased Rate Hike Odds
The US Dollar Index (UUP) failed to rally aggressively despite a hawkish surprise from the US Fed.
Assessing the US Dollar’s Rally after the Latest Hawkish Fed Statement
The US dollar rallied after the latest FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) meeting statement was released on September 20.
Why the US Dollar Saw a Sharp Rebound
The US Dollar Index (UUP) witnessed a sharp recovery last week, rebounding from a two-year low of 91.0.
Will the S&P 500 Index Rally beyond 2,500?
The S&P 500 Index (SPY) closed the week ending September 15 at 2,500.23, gaining 1.6% as compared to the previous week’s close.
Understanding the Ups and Downs of the US Dollar
The US dollar has been on a roller coaster ride over the last ten trading sessions. The US dollar (UUP) index hit a low of 90.99 on September 8.
Will a Rising Deficit Impact Tax Cut and Infra Spending Reforms?
For this fiscal year, through August, the federal deficit stood at $674 billion. Compared to the previous year, spending is up 3% and receipts have risen 2%.
Why the US Dollar Could Be Poised for Further Losses
The US Dollar Index (UUP) failed to hold onto its gains from the previous week as investors were convinced that the Fed most likely wouldn’t make any changes to its monetary policy this year.
The Week Ahead for the S&P 500 Index
The S&P 500 Index (SPY) closed at 2,461.43 for the week ended September 8, 2017, falling 0.61% compared to the previous week’s close.
Could the Federal Reserve Surprise the Markets in September?
The US Federal Open Market Committee (or FOMC) is scheduled to meet on September 19 and 20 to discuss the current economic climate in the US and to decide whether any monetary policy adjustments are necessary.
How to Make Sense of the US Dollar Rebound
The US Dollar Index (UUP) surprised the markets with its resilience despite a weak August jobs report.
Could North Korea’s New Nuclear Test Drag S&P 500 Lower?
The S&P 500 Index (SPY) closed the week ended September 1, 2017, at 2,476.5, rising 1.3% compared to its close for the week ended August 25, 2017.
Why John Williams Feels Interest Rates Are Only Halfway There
John Williams, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, said that technology companies in the San Francisco Bay area are booming, and he sees no issues similar to the dot-com bubble.
Will Dollar Index Strengthen in the Second Half of 2017?
The Fed continued its gradual rate hike process in 1H17. In spite of the gradual rate hike, the Dollar Index weakened in 1H17.
Is the US Dollar Dying a Slow Death?
The US Dollar Index closed the week ending August 25 at 92.68—compared to 93.36 in the previous week.