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What Analysts Expect from Expedia’s Q4 Top and Bottom Line


Jan. 9 2019, Updated 7:31 a.m. ET

Analysts’ expectations

Wall Street analysts expect Expedia (EXPE) to continue benefiting from a healthy travel demand environment. The online travel agency’s three consecutive quarters of better-than-expected results have increased analysts’ confidence in its stock.

Analysts expect Expedia’s fourth-quarter revenue to rise 9.7% YoY to $2.54 billion. By segment, its Core OTA sales are expected to grow 8.7% to $2.02 billion, its Egencia sales are expected to rise 9.8% to $150.5 million, and its HomeAway sales are expected to increase 29.4% to $249.7 million. However, analysts expect Trivago’s revenue to fall 8.4% to $197 million.

For 2018, Expedia’s consolidated sales are expected to rise 11.4% YoY to $11.2 billion. Revenues in its Core OTA, Egencia, and HomeAway segments are expected to grow 14.2%, 14.5%, and 31.2%, respectively. Trivago’s sales are likely to fall 9.4% YoY.

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EBITDA estimates

In the fourth quarter, Expedia’s adjusted EBITDA are expected to rise 5.1% YoY to $422.9 million. Its adjusted EBITDA margin is expected to contract 70 basis points to 16.7%. For 2018, analysts expect Expedia’s adjusted EBITDA to rise 11.8% YoY to $1.92 billion. The company’s management has also raised its full-year EBITDA growth guidance range to 10%–12% from the previous range of 7%–12%. For 2018, analysts expect the company’s EBITDA margin to expand ten basis points YoY to 17.1%.

Earnings estimate

Expedia’s non-GAAP (generally accepted accounting principles) EPS are expected to rise 28.6% YoY to $1.08 in the fourth quarter from $0.84 in the fourth quarter of 2017. For 2018, its non-GAAP EPS are expected to rise 31.2% YoY to $5.64.

Booking Holdings (BKNG), TripAdvisor (TRIP), and Ctrip.com International (CTRP) are projected to report EPS rises of 16.6%, 67.6%, and 10.9% YoY, respectively, in 2018.

Investors can gain exposure to Expedia via the SPDR S&P Internet ETF (XWEB), which has allocated ~2.5% of its funds in the stock.


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