S&P500 Index

The Fed left the federal funds rate unchanged at 1.5%–1.75% yesterday, as expected. Furthermore, the interest rate could remain the same in 2020.

This year, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and Technology Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLK) have risen 19.2% and 35.5%, respectively. What’s driven this rally?

All of the major indexes and ETFs are trading lower today. The Dow Jones Industrial Average has fallen by 44 points or 0.16% at the time of this writing.

The Dow Jones Industrial Index (DJIA) and the S&P 500 gained momentum in the second half of the week ending on October 11, 2019.

Shares of tech giant Amazon (AMZN) are trading 1.3% higher today. Does the surge hint at a turnaround in sentiment and Amazon investor relations?

Tech giant Amazon has been a solid wealth generator for investors. It’s risen 450% in the last five years and has returned 1,700% in the last decade.

Today at 10:30 AM ET, the US Energy Information Administration released its weekly inventory data. Today at 12:44 PM ET, WTI crude oil futures lost 2.2%.

Apple (AAPL), Microsoft (MSFT), and Cisco (CSCO) fell today, bringing the Dow Jones Industrial Average down. Here’s why investors are concerned.

Last week (ended September 20), gold rose 1.1% and settled at $1,507.30 per ounce. Meanwhile, the SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) rose 2%.

Yesterday, Goldman Sachs’ strategist warned of high volatility in October. Based on Goldman Sachs’ data, since 1928 volatility in October is 25% higher.

Blackstone’s strategist Joseph Zidle warned investors of trouble in the equity market. He said the Fed could disappoint Wall Street.

While tech stocks fell sharply in late 2018, they surged again in 2019. How could the market react if tech stocks post lower-than-expected earnings?

Yesterday, gold prices rose around 1%, or $15.90, following drone attacks on Saudi Arabia’s Aramco oil facilities on September 14.

On September 14, drones attacked Saudi Arabia Aramco’s oil-infrastructure. Saudi Arabia’s oil production has fallen by 50%.

With John Bolton’s removal, the US and Iran might resume diplomatic talks. US-Iran talks might increase the bearish sentiments for oil.

President Trump’s claims of a strong economy are based on the unemployment rate. The August US unemployment rate was 3.7%, just up from a 49-year low.

Bill Ackman, CEO of Pershing Square Capital Management, is well known in the hedge fund industry for his various investment strategies.

Until now, the US economy under Trump’s presidency has performed well. However, the trade war has led to a slowdown outside the US.

On August 27, in an interview with CNBC, Morgan Stanley’s Mike Wilson reiterated his earlier target of $2,750 for the S&P 500 Index (SPY) in 2019.

Gold closed at $1,541 per ounce yesterday. Despite Trump’s reassurances that trade talks are progressing, bond markets seem to be preparing for a recession.

When asked yesterday whether he had second thoughts on the trade war with China, Donald Trump replied, “Yeah! sure. Why not?”

Tech and semiconductor stocks have significant exposure to China during this trade war. Investors should expect these stocks to trade lower on Monday.

In a report released this month, Mckinsey discussed the Asian debt crisis. The Asian financial system has been exposed to a higher risk.

On August 20 in an interview with CNBC, economist Robert Shiller said the Fed’s rate cut had created fear in the markets.

Ray Dalio forecasts a 40% chance of recession before the 2020 presidential election. He said the economy could head for its worst in two to three years.

Recent developments in Hong Kong and Argentina could be important for US equity markets. Argentina’s turmoil could boost the S&P 500’s valuation.

Morgan Stanley expects the Fed will gradually move back to the zero interest rate policy it had between 2009 and late 2015.

In a video yesterday, Ray Dalio said investors should bet both on the US and China in this trade war, pointing to enormous growth in China’s market.

eBay (EBAY) is set to announce its second-quarter earnings results on Wednesday. Analysts expect it to post revenue of $2.67 billion in the quarter.

Earnings season is here, and analysts and investors are waiting with bated breath to see if companies meet Wall Street estimates. FactSet data suggests most companies’ earnings will decline, particularly in the technology sector. However, several companies, especially in the mid-cap category, are seeing robust revenue and earnings growth. Enterprise software provider ServiceNow (NOW) is one […]

Shares of leading cloud storage company Dropbox have gained close to 13.0% since April 2019. Dropbox shares have now gained 20.5% since the start of 2019.

Shares of leading hardware technology company HP (HPQ) have gained close to 11.2% since the start of June. Despite its recent gains, HP has risen just 1.5% since the start of 2019.

In the last week, the Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLE) has risen 0.7%, the third least among SPDR ETFs.

US crude oil active futures have fallen 0.6% in the last week, possibly dragging down or limiting XOP, XLE, OIH, and AMLP, which have returned -1.4%, 0.7%, 1.3%, and 0.7%, respectively.

Intuit (INTU), a financial technology solutions company, has risen over 27.0% in 2019.

The tech sector’s earnings season has been better than what was expected earlier this year, when expectations were dulled by the quickly deteriorating global economy.

Oil’s fundamentals, broader market dragged on prices On May 28, US crude oil prices rose 0.9% and settled at $59.14 per barrel, ~10.8% below the highest closing level for active US crude oil futures since October 31, 2018. In the trailing week, US crude oil active futures fell 6.3%.  Last week, the rise in inventories […]

Palo Alto Networks (PANW) fell 5.4% on May 23 to close trading at $215.79.

While investors were looking forward to an end to the ongoing trade war between the US and China in this month’s negotiations, things took an uglier turn.

Last week, US crude oil June futures fell 0.5% and closed at $61.66 per barrel on May 10.

Are we back to having a trade war?? Trump’s tweet indicates we may be.

In the trailing week, XLE rose 1.4%. XLE was the largest gainer among the SPDR ETFs that break the broad market into subsectors.

In the trailing week, the Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLE) has risen 0.3%.

Decent earnings combined with low expectations are fueling rally after rally – not to mention the ever elusive promise of a China deal.

The Health Care Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLV) has risen 4.8% and has underperformed the SPDR ETFs in the first quarter.

On March 25, US crude oil prices fell 0.4% and settled at $58.82 per barrel. Concerns about global economic growth might have dragged oil prices.

On March 21, US crude oil’s implied volatility was 24.9%, which was 6.7% below its 15-day average. Usually, lower implied volatility supports oil prices.

The tech-heavy NASDAQ Composite Index (QQQ) is on track to post its 12th weekly gain in 13 weeks.

DIA, SPY, and IVOO rose 1%, 1.7%, and 0.9%, respectively, in the trailing week. US crude oil May futures rose 1.8% during this period.

The US fixed income market saw a strong close to 2018.

With the major indices pushing higher and higher, we need to again look at whether any new money should be put to work here.

Tech stocks and broader markets have been on a roll this year despite risks. However, the tech-heavy NASDAQ Composite Index (QQQ), as well as the broader S&P 500 Index (SPY), fell for the third consecutive session.

Legendary investor Warren Buffett said in an interview with CNBC that he finds it difficult to beat the S&P 500 (SPY).

Markets rallied on February 22 following more signs of a trade deal between the two biggest economies, the United States and China, and the Fed’s dovish tone at a meeting.

Don’t sell all of your stocks and head for the hills, but do add some shorts to the group or at least sell these silly stocks that lifted all boats.

On February 25, US crude oil prices fell 3.1% from the highest closing level for active US crude oil futures since November 12.

Is the rally in January a sign of things to come in 2019, or will we face another significant sell-off like in 2018?

This morning at around 9:12 AM ET, US crude oil futures were down almost $1.20 from last week’s closing level.

On February 21, US crude oil’s implied volatility was 27.6%, which was ~10% below its 15-day average.

On February 14–21, XLE rose 0.8%—the third-lowest rise among the SPDR ETFs that break the broad market into subsectors.

Tech stocks edged higher yet again on February 20, extending the gains in the NASDAQ as the markets closely examined the Fed’s tone.

Moat companies (MOAT) (FB) (INTC) or moat stocks are companies that have an advantage over their competitors in the industry.

On February 27, Chesapeake Energy might report an adjusted net income of $0.18 per diluted share based on analysts’ consensus estimates.

On February 7, US crude oil’s implied volatility was 31.4%, which was ~10% below its 15-day average.

The Technology Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLK) rose 2%. XLK was the outperformer among sector-based SPDR ETFs.

On February 4, US crude oil prices fell 1.3% and settled at $54.56 per barrel. US crude oil active futures made an intraday high of $55.75.

On February 5, Anadarko Petroleum is scheduled to report its fourth-quarter earnings results after the market close.

On January 24–31, XLE rose 2.6%—the sixth-largest rise among the SPDR ETFs that break the broad market into subsectors.

On January 31, ConocoPhillips (COP) reported adjusted EPS of $1.13 for the fourth quarter, a fall of 17% on a sequential basis.

On January 30, at 6:05 AM EST, natural gas March futures fell 1.7% from the last closing level.

On January 28, Hess Corporation (HES) stock closed 2.5% above its 50-day moving average.

Between January 18 and January 25, US crude oil March futures fell 0.6% and closed at $53.69 despite a fall in the US dollar.

On January 24, at 5:39 AM EST, natural gas prices have risen 1.7% from the last closing level.

The oil rig count could keep rising until at least March. By the second quarter, US crude oil production growth might slow down.

Between January 11 and January 18, upstream stock Laredo Petroleum (LPI) fell the most among our set of selected energy stocks.

On January 22, natural gas February futures fell to an intraday low of $3.13 per MMBtu, which is ~10% below the last closing level.

ConocoPhillips’ (COP) adjusted EPS might fall ~28% in the fourth quarter on a sequential basis based on analysts’ consensus estimate.

On January 17, US crude oil March futures fell 0.5% and settled at $52.36 per barrel. In the trailing week, US crude oil prices fell 1%.

On January 16, at 7:37 AM EST, natural gas prices have risen by 1.7 cents from the last closing level.

In the week ending January 4, US crude oil inventories were 8% higher than their five-year average—the same as the previous week.

On January 14, US crude oil February futures fell 2.1% and settled at $50.51 per barrel. The Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLE) fell 0.2%.

On January 4–11, the SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF (XOP) rose 6.2%—the second-largest gainer among major energy ETFs.

On January 10, US crude oil’s implied volatility was 40%, which was ~25% below its 15-day average.

On January 3–10, XLE rose 7.7%—the third-largest gainer among the SPDR ETFs that break the broad market into subsectors.

I bet you may have heard a lot about investing defensively while the market faded.

On January 8, natural gas February futures rose 0.8% and settled at $2.96 per million British thermal units.

Since the latest EIA (U.S. Energy Information Administration) data were released on January 4, US crude oil February futures have risen 1.2%.

US crude oil February futures rose 5.6% in the trailing week.

The high correlation indicates a stronger positive relationship between oil-weighted stocks and US crude oil prices.

On January 2, US crude oil active futures settled at $46.54 per barrel—2.5% higher than the last closing level due to short covering.

2018, especially the second half, was a rough year for stocks. In fact, it was the worst year for stocks in a decade.

On December 31, natural gas February futures fell 11% and settled at $2.94 per million British thermal units.

In the week ending on December 21, US crude oil inventories were 7% higher than their five-year average—unchanged from the previous week.

So far in 2018, US crude oil prices have fallen 25%. Crude oil prices are in the red on a year-to-date basis for the first time since 2016.

On December 24, natural gas February futures fell 8.7% and settled at $3.42 per million British thermal units.

On December 26, US crude oil active futures settled at $46.22 per barrel—8.7% higher than the lowest closing level since June 21, 2017.

On December 20, US crude oil February futures fell 4.8% and settled at $45.88 per barrel—the smallest closing level since July 21, 2017.

On December 7–14, US equity indexes ended in the red. Last week, IVOO, SPY, and DIA fell 2.7%, 1.3%, and 1.2%, respectively.

On December 6–13, XLE fell 1.4%—the fourth-lowest decline among the SPDR ETFs that break the broad market into subsectors.

On December 14, China reported the November industrial output growth at 5.4% on a year-over-year basis—the lowest growth since early 2016.