More From David Meyer
US Dollar Index Fell on Weak Economic Data
The US Dollar Index fell to 93.8 before closing on October 14. It fell due to the release of weak domestic data in the form of the PPI and retail sales.
July’s US Retail Sales Meet Estimates
On August 13, 2015, US retail sales came in at expected levels for July. The increase in the retail sector was broad-based.
Israeli Shekel Rose, Central Bank Kept Rates Unchanged
The Israeli shekel rose against the US dollar on November 23, 2015. The central bank of Israel kept the interest rates unchanged at 0.1%.
German July Business Climate Index Beats Forecasts
The German IFO Business Climate Index released on a positive note in July at 108 points. It was above forecasts with expectations around 107.5 levels.
Thai Baht Rose Due to Strong Economic Growth
The Thai baht appreciated against the US dollar on November 16. Economic growth showed signs of a turnaround. The GDP rose at the fastest quarterly pace this year.
Will the US Dollar Index Strengthen before the FOMC Statement?
Asian currencies traded lower against the dollar ahead of the FOMC statement. The US dollar-Japanese yen currency pair rose by 0.80% at 6:00 AM EST on July 27.
Taiwan’s Economy Expands, Russia Keeps Rates Unchanged
Taiwan’s economy came out of the recessionary phase. The GDP for 2Q16 grew by 0.69%—compared to a contraction of 0.68% in the previous quarter.
The Argentine Peso Tanks as Government Fulfils the Promise of Freefloat
The US dollar and Argentinian peso currency pair, which is inversely related to the Argentinian peso, rose by 35.6% on December 17, 2015.
Analyzing the BoJ’s Monetary Policy Enhancement Measures
The BoJ’s monetary policy was the most awaited macro event this week. It was the first major central bank to expand its easing program after the Brexit vote.
Notable Gainers and Losers among Major Currency Pairs
Major Asian currency pairs were trading on a negative bias against the US dollar on August 12, 2016. The US dollar broadly rose against the other currencies.
Why the Bank of England Decided to Keep Rates Unchanged
The Bank of England kept interest rates unchanged at 0.5%. The asset purchase program was also unchanged at 375 billion pounds.
Markets Extend Rally on Stimulus Hopes, FTSE 100 Remains Flat
The FTSE 100, the United Kingdom’s major index (EWU), has been on rising trend after the sharp fall for two days following the Brexit referendum.
Global Central Bank Leaders Meet to Calm Market Jitters
Central banks met in Basel during the Bank of International Settlement’s annual meeting. They discussed how to control the impact of Brexit on the global economy.
What Can Investors Expect from the US Dollar in 2016?
The cautious stance maintained by Fed Chair Janet Yellen allowed less appreciation in the US dollar after the monetary policy meeting.
Why Did Manufacturing Activity Slow in the Eurozone?
The manufacturing PMI in the Eurozone (EZU) fell to 52.0 in July 2016 from 52.8 in June. It was slightly above the estimated forecasts of 51.9.
Chilean Peso Rallies as Central Bank Keeps Rates Unchanged
The Chilean peso gained against the US dollar on February 12 on the back of the unchanged monetary policy by its central bank and a surge in commodities.
Sharp Fall in Crude Oil Price Dictate the Currencies Markets
Looking at the performance of the major commodity-driven currencies on July 25, the Nigerian naira was the biggest casualty.
Japanese Yen Rose on Positive GDP Numbers
The Japanese yen gained early on December 8, 2015, as GDP (gross domestic product) figures were upwardly revised.
Why Did Bank Indonesia Keep Rates Constant?
Bank Indonesia kept its benchmark rate unchanged at 6.5% during the monetary policy meeting on July 21 amid expectations of another round of easing.
Why Employment Numbers Are this Week’s Center of Attention
Strong non-farm employment required to maintain any rate hike hopes Non-farm employment changes are one of the most important indicators the US Fed considers in deciding on monetary policy. May non-farm employment changes hit a multi-year low, which took away all probabilities of a June hike. Check out the following article for further detail on May’s […]
Swedish Krona Gains on Positive Growth Figures
The Swedish krona gained by more than 1.5% against the US dollar and 1.0% against the euro on September 11, 2015, as the economy grew at a faster rate than expected in 2Q15.
British Pound Rallies on Strong Inflation Numbers
On August 18, the annualized CPI showed an increase of 0.1% and beat the forecasts. The clothing and footwear sector drove the increase in inflation.
Can Investors Keep Forecasting the Final Non-Farm Payroll Correctly?
ADP’s June non-farm payroll numbers indicated an increase of 172,000 jobs in the private sector. ADP’s non-farm payrolls have been mostly accurate.
Indonesian Rupiah Traded Lower, Interest Rates Didn’t Change
The rupiah was trading in a negative trajectory compared to the US dollar on November 17. Bank Indonesia decided to keep the interest rates unchanged.
Why the Euro Slumped on Dovish ECB Statement
The euro fell by more than 2% against the US dollar after the ECB (European Central Bank) meeting on October 22, 2015.
Norwegian Krone Extended Appreciation Trend Last Week
The Norwegian krone appreciated against the US dollar on October 9, 2015, as a result of positive inflation data.
Russian GDP Continues to Fall, Taiwan’s Export Orders Drop
The Russian economy fell by 0.6% on an annual basis in July—compared to Market expectations of a 1.0% decline and lower than a decline of 0.5% in June.
Why the High Volatility of the Japanese Yen in Recent Months?
The US dollar–Japanese yen currency pair has been one of the most volatile developed country currencies in the past six months. The Japanese yen saw heavy appreciation in August.
Danish Krone Fell and Inflation Was below the Forecasts
The Danish krone fell against the US dollar on November 10, 2015. The inflation figures for October were below the expectations.
Indonesian Rupiah Fell Due to the Jakarta Attack and Rate Cut
The Indonesian rupiah fell against the US dollar on January 14, 2016, after a terrorist bomb exploded in the capital city of Jakarta.
Pound Sterling Rose Slightly Due to the Sustained Euro Sell-Off
The pound sterling ended on a slightly positive note against the US dollar on November 17, even though the inflation levels fell on an annual basis in October.
Outlook Projections: IMF Cuts Global Growth Forecasts
The IMF cut its global economic growth forecasts, according to the latest IMF World Economic Output Update dated July 19. The cut in forecasts was expected.
Major Movers of the Financial Markets in the Past 20 Years: Part 2
The global financial crisis of 2008 proved to be the major mover of the financial markets in the last 20 years. Internet companies and the banking sector took a beating.
Taiwan’s Economy Expands, Bank Indonesia Keeps Rates Unchanged
Taiwan’s economy rose by 0.7% on an annual basis in 2Q16—compared to a contraction of 0.29% in the previous quarter and slightly above estimated forecasts.
Asian Markets Trade Lower, ECB’s Policy Falls Short of Expectations
Key Asian indexes (AAXJ) were trading lower on July 22 as the ECB’s (European Central Bank) monetary policy disappointed the global market.
Why the FOMC, BoJ, and EBA Will Drive Markets This Week
In terms of the major macro data release from the United States (VOO) (QQQ), it would be the FOMC monetary policy release on July 27. 2016.
Japanese Trade Surplus Rose in June, Imports Fell More than Exports
The trade surplus for Japan increased to 692.8 billion yen for June—compared to a deficit of 60.9 billion yen in the same month last year.
Canadian Dollar Sees Sharp Appreciation, Bank of Canada Keeps Rate Unchanged
The US dollar and Canadian dollar currency pair, which is inversely related to the Canadian dollar, fell about 1.3% below opening levels on March 9.
Spread Reducing between Onshore and Offshore Yuan
The spread between the offshore and onshore yuan creates arbitrage opportunities for traders as the value diverges between the two currencies.
Swedish Krona and Danish Krone Depreciate after Inflation Reports
The Swedish krona depreciated against the US dollar by more than 1% on December 10, 2015, as inflation levels released below estimates for November.
Why Are Global Markets Range Bound?
The contrasting movement among the global markets was primarily due to caution ahead of the Bank of England’s monetary policy release on July 14.
Why Are Falling Copper Prices Pressuring the Chilean Peso?
Copper futures prices fell by 1.5% on August 22, 2016. The Chilean peso has a high correlation to copper prices—copper is Chile’s major export.
The Taiwan Dollar Keels as Taiwanese Central Bank Cuts Rates
The Taiwan dollar depreciated against the US dollar on December 17, 2015, as the Taiwan Central Bank cut interest rates for the second time in three months.
European Markets Carry over Sentiments from Previous Week
Critical European markets continued their upward trajectory on April 11 and looked as if they were picking up where they left off on Friday, April 8.
The People’s Bank of China Surprises Currency Markets
The Chinese yuan depreciated by 1.8% on August 11, 2015, as the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) aimed to boost the depressed economy and push exports.
With US Market Sentiment High, Why Did Manufacturing PMI Fall?
The manufacturing PMI (Purchasing Managers’ Index) published by the Institute for Supply Management fell in April to 50.8. That compares to 51.8 in March and expectations of 51.4.
Non-Farm Payroll Soars, Wage Growth Causes Concern
The non-farm payroll report for February didn’t give any major direction to the Market. The unemployment rate remained at a multiyear low of 4.9%.
How Does the Indian Rupee Compare Alongside Its Peers?
The Indian rupee has crossed 2.5-year lows as the US dollar and Indian rupee currency pair crossed the 67 handle after the close of the trading session.
Gold SPDRs Fall as US Fed Members Turn Hawkish in Rate Hikes
Gold prices retreated following the rise in the US dollar index. Gold had been gaining traction earlier last week following a dovish report by Janet Yellen, the US Federal Reserve chairperson.
Germany’s GDP Meets Consensus, EWG Trades Lower
Germany’s economy grew at an annual pace of 2.1% in 4Q15—in line with estimated forecasts and above growth of 1.8% in the previous quarter.
ECB Leaves Rates Unchanged, Stimulus Levels Still Constant
The ECB (European Central Bank) kept interest rates unchanged at 0% on June 2, 2016. Mario Draghi, president of the ECB, hinted at optimism for growth in the Eurozone economy.
US Dollar Weakens as Yellen Voices Rate Hike Concerns, Gold Spikes
US Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen delivered a dovish statement about further rate hikes. Yellen expressed concerns over global economic growth.
Caution in European Indexes ahead of the Central Bank Meeting
European indexes (DBEU) were trading with a slight positive bias this morning even as crude oil prices fell by close to 2.5% at 9:00 AM EST.
Will the Pound Emulate the US Dollar’s Strength in 2016?
The situation for the pound sterling in 2016 is similar to the US dollar’s situation in 2015. The markets are expecting a rise towards mid-2016.
Why Italian Banks Led Gains in European Markets
Critical European markets (DBEU) were all trading on a positive note on August 23, 2016. The rise was led by the Italian FTSE MIB.
New Zealand Employment Reports Should Be Viewed with Caution
Given the two major changes brought about by Statistics New Zealand, markets should view this unemployment release as a benchmark for upcoming releases.
Australian Unemployment Fell: Is More Easing Needed?
The Australian Bureau of Statistics published the employment report for July on August 18, 2016. The unemployment rate fell by 0.1% to 5.7%.
RBA Minutes Exhibit Dovish Bias, Wholesale Prices Rise in India
The RBA released its minutes. Inflationary pressures were subdued—noted by a sluggish rise in consumer prices in Australia of 1% in 2Q16.
UK Inflation Rose Slightly, ZEW Economic Sentiment Rose
The ZEW economic sentiment index for Germany (EWG) (HEWG) rose to 0.5 in August from -6.8 in the previous month. It was below estimated forecasts of 2.0.
Thailand’s GDP Strengthens, Trade Surplus Narrows for Indonesia
Thailand’s economy rose by 3.5% on an annual basis in 2Q16. The GDP rose at the fastest pace since 1Q13. On a quarterly basis, its GDP grew by 0.8% in 2Q16.
Japan’s Economy Exhibits Flat Growth, Abe Feels the Pressure
Japan’s economy showed no growth on a quarterly basis in 2Q16—compared to growth of 0.5% in the previous quarter and forecasts of a 0.2% expansion.
Eurozone GDP Met Expectations, German Inflation Rose
The Eurozone’s seasonally adjusted GDP rose by 1.6% on an annual basis in 2Q16—in line with estimated forecasts and against 1.7% growth in 1Q16.
Malaysian GDP Grew Slower, Inflation Beat Expectations in India
The Malaysian economy grew by 4.0% on an annual basis in 2Q16—in line with estimated forecasts and against 4.2% growth recorded in 1Q16.
Is the Hectic Macro Calendar Pointing to a Volatile Week Ahead?
In terms of the macro calendar, the major data releases for the week starting August 15 from the US side will include the CPI and the building permits release.
Swedish Inflation at a 4-Year High, Russian GDP Contraction Eases
Consumer prices in Sweden rose by 1.1% in July on an annual basis. It was the highest recorded inflation in Sweden since April 2012.
Bank of Korea Keeps Rates Unchanged, Asian ETFs Trade Positive
South Korea’s monetary policy committee kept the benchmark interest rate unchanged at a record low of 1.3%—in line with expectations.
Why Did Swedish Industrial Production Fall?
Swedish industrial production fell by 1.4% in June on an annual basis—compared to a 1.5% drop in the previous month.
Why Did the RBNZ Decide to Cut the Official Cash Rate?
For RBNZ (Reserve Bank of New Zealand) Governor Graeme Wheeler, coming out with a cut was a no-brainer to markets. Markets expected a rate cut.
China’s Trade Surplus Expands, Australian Indices Still Rise
China’s trade surplus widened to $52.3 billion in July from $48.1 billion in the previous month. It’s expected to narrow to $47.6 billion.
Latin American Markets Rise, Chile Records Slower Inflation
Latin American markets were trading higher on August 8—taking cues from a rise in commodity and crude prices globally.
Inflation Rises in Taiwan, Indonesian GDP Beat Expectations
The inflation rate in Taiwan rose by 1.2% in July on an annual basis—above expectations of 1.1% growth and last month’s rise of 0.91% in consumer prices.
Unemployment Rate Remained Unchanged at 4.9% in July
The unemployment rate remained unchanged at 4.9% in July—the number of people unemployed remained at ~7.8 million.
What Does the Global Markit Services PMI Show?
Markit published the July services PMI number for European countries (EZU) on August 3. The services activity expanded in Europe.
Bitcoin Prices Fall, Hackers Reportedly Stole Bitcoins Worth $65 Million
Bitcoin, one of the most commonly used digital currencies, fell by close to 15% over the last four trading sessions. It’s used for online payments.
Weak PMI Data Release Puts Pressure on Markets
The United Kingdom’s (EWU) construction PMI (purchasing manager’s index) fell in July to 45.9—slightly below 46 recorded last month.
Why Are Global Markets Trading Lower?
Major Asian markets (AAXJ) were trading on a negative note on August 3, 2016. The only exception was the Chinese (FXI) index DJ Shanghai.
Australian Dollar Rose despite the RBA’s Monetary Easing Measures
The RBA (Reserve Bank of Australia) cut the cash rate by 25 basis points to a record low of 1.5% in the monetary policy meeting on Tuesday.
Australian Data Disappoints: Does It Point to Easing by the RBA?
The Australian approvals were published ahead of the RBA’s monetary policy. Building approvals fell by 2.9% on a month-over-month basis.
Manufacturing PMI Releases across Asian Economies, China Struggles
The official manufacturing PMI for China, published by the National Bureau of Statistics of China, came in at 49.9 for July—slightly below June’s reading of 50.
Scandinavian Macroeconomic Data Are below Expectations
Sweden’s economy expanded by 3.1% on an annual basis in 2Q16—compared to 4.2% growth in the previous quarter and below expectations of 3.7% growth.
Colombia Hikes Rates, Chile’s Industrial Production Contracts
Colombia’s central bank increased the benchmark interest rates for the 11th consecutive meeting by 25 basis points to bring the rate to 7.8%.
EWA Rises despite Lower Growth in Export and Import Prices
Recently, the trade surplus for Thailand increased as imports fell lower than exports in the Thai economy. THD rose by 0.81% at 1:30 PM EST on July 28.
What Are the BoJ’s Projections for Economic Activity in Japan?
The Bank of Japan gave its economic outlook after the monetary policy meeting on July 29. The weak data are due to the slowdown in emerging economies.
Inflation Levels in Australia Exhibit a Sluggish Increase
Inflation levels in Australia rose by 1.0% in 2Q16—slightly below estimated forecasts of a 1.1% rise and softer than the previous quarter’s rise of 1.3%.
UK Economy Expands: Is a Rate Cut Less Probable?
The United Kingdom’s economy expanded. The GDP rose by 2.2% on an annual basis in 2Q16—from 2% growth in the previous quarter.
Volatility in the Japanese Yen before the BoJ’s Meeting
The Japanese yen gained strength during mid-July due to growing uncertainties surrounding the BOE’s (Bank of England) monetary policy.
FOMC Keeps the Door Open for a Live Meeting in September
The Fed had a meeting on July 27 to decide on the monetary policy. The tone of the Fed’s statement made a case for the September meeting to be a live one.
Why Did Singapore’s Industrial Production Fall?
Singapore’s industrial production fell on an annual basis by 0.3% in June—compared to a rise of 0.8% in the previous month and expectations of a 0.2% fall.
Inflation Levels Fall in Singapore, Malaysian Unemployment Rate Falls
The inflation rate in Singapore fell by 0.7% on an annual basis in June after a 1.6% drop in May and estimated forecasts of a contraction of 1.1%.
Why Did Ifo’s Release Show Gains in Construction and Retail?
The overall Ifo business climate suffered a setback in July. Looking at the sector-based performance, the construction and retail sector saw a rise.
Strong Rise in Business Sentiment: Is It Signaling a Bounce Back?
The MNI China business sentiment index rose to 55.5 in July—compared to 54.5 in the previous month. It released at the highest level since October 2015.
Analyzing Scenarios in the IMF’s Report: What to Expect
The IMF looks at two risk scenarios for estimating the growth forecasts in case of increased risks. The two new scenarios are “downside” and “severe.”
Why Are Retail Sales Low in the United Kingdom?
The Office of National Statistics published the retail sales for June at a six-month low. Retail sales fell by 0.9% on a month-over-month basis.
Monetary Policy Statement: Why the ECB Kept Rates Unchanged
The ECB decided to keep the key rates unchanged in the monetary policy review on July 21, 2016. The pound was the major loser among the currencies.
Inflation Levels in Malaysia Ease, Taiwanese Export Orders Drop
The inflation rate in Malaysia increased by 1.6% on an annual basis in June—compared to 2.0% in the previous month and below forecasts of 1.6%.
Euro and Pound Move in Opposite Directions before the ECB Meeting
On July 20, the euro-US dollar pair was trading range bound around the 1.10 handle. The pair ended the day on a flat note with a slight fall of 0.06%.
UK Unemployment Rate Improves, Brexit Concerns Remain
The unemployment rate in the United Kingdom reached 11-year low levels as the jobless rate fell to 4.9% for the period from March to May.
Asian Markets Fall, Led by EWA: Australia Stays Open to Rate Cut
The RBA (Reserve Bank of Australia) induced a sell-off in the Australian dollar when it kept the door open for rate cuts in the future. It said inflation rates are still below the target.
Inflation Rises in United Kingdom: Should Go Higher on Weak Pound
Inflation rate in the United Kingdom pushed higher to release at 0.5% on an annual basis in June. However, it was still below the central bank’s target of 2%.
Why Were the United Kingdom’s Growth Forecasts Slashed?
Looking at the change in growth forecasts in advanced economies, the United Kingdom suffered the largest downward revision of estimates.