David Meyer

Critical European markets (DBEU) were all trading on a positive note on August 23, 2016. The rise was led by the Italian FTSE MIB.

Copper futures prices fell by 1.5% on August 22, 2016. The Chilean peso has a high correlation to copper prices—copper is Chile’s major export.

The Russian economy fell by 0.6% on an annual basis in July—compared to Market expectations of a 1.0% decline and lower than a decline of 0.5% in June.

Latin American markets were trading lower on August 22. They took cues from a fall in commodity and crude prices globally.

Taiwan’s economy rose by 0.7% on an annual basis in 2Q16—compared to a contraction of 0.29% in the previous quarter and slightly above estimated forecasts.

Urjit Patel was announced as the RBI’s 24th governor. He’s serving as Raghuram Rajan’s lieutenant. Urjit Patel has worked under Rajan as the deputy governor.

The bitcoin-US dollar pair fell by 1.3% on August 17 after a release from bitcoin.org asking customers to be wary of a potential attack on its new update.

Given the two major changes brought about by Statistics New Zealand, markets should view this unemployment release as a benchmark for upcoming releases.

The Australian Bureau of Statistics published the employment report for July on August 18, 2016. The unemployment rate fell by 0.1% to 5.7%.

The RBA released its minutes. Inflationary pressures were subdued—noted by a sluggish rise in consumer prices in Australia of 1% in 2Q16.

The ZEW economic sentiment index for Germany (EWG) (HEWG) rose to 0.5 in August from -6.8 in the previous month. It was below estimated forecasts of 2.0.

The CPI (consumer price inflation), published by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, remained unchanged in July. The energy index fell by 1.6% in July.

Thailand’s economy rose by 3.5% on an annual basis in 2Q16. The GDP rose at the fastest pace since 1Q13. On a quarterly basis, its GDP grew by 0.8% in 2Q16.

Japan’s economy showed no growth on a quarterly basis in 2Q16—compared to growth of 0.5% in the previous quarter and forecasts of a 0.2% expansion.

The Russian index, MICEX, rose to an all-time high—helped by investors turning their attention to how the rebound in crude oil prices can be best captured.

Investors seem to be favoring emerging markets as the hope of a rate hike by the Fed in September diminished. EWZ rose by 1.5% on August 15.

The Eurozone’s seasonally adjusted GDP rose by 1.6% on an annual basis in 2Q16—in line with estimated forecasts and against 1.7% growth in 1Q16.

The Malaysian economy grew by 4.0% on an annual basis in 2Q16—in line with estimated forecasts and against 4.2% growth recorded in 1Q16.

In terms of the macro calendar, the major data releases for the week starting August 15 from the US side will include the CPI and the building permits release.

Consumer prices in Sweden rose by 1.1% in July on an annual basis. It was the highest recorded inflation in Sweden since April 2012.

South Korea’s monetary policy committee kept the benchmark interest rate unchanged at a record low of 1.3%—in line with expectations.

The IMF announced that it would be lending $12 billion to help revive the Egyptian economy and help the central bank stabilize the Egyptian pound.

Major Asian currency pairs were trading on a negative bias against the US dollar on August 12, 2016. The US dollar broadly rose against the other currencies.

Swedish industrial production fell by 1.4% in June on an annual basis—compared to a 1.5% drop in the previous month.

For RBNZ (Reserve Bank of New Zealand) Governor Graeme Wheeler, coming out with a cut was a no-brainer to markets. Markets expected a rate cut.

The BLS published the non-farm productivity for a quarter-over-quarter basis on August 9. The non-farm productivity fell well below forecasts in 2Q16.

Critical European markets (DBEU) were all trading on a positive note at the end of trading on August 9, 2016. The rise was led by the German index DAX.

Bitfinex announced that it will generalize losses across its users. This would mean that Bitfinex users will experience ~36% losses on their Bitcoin assets.

Latin American markets were trading higher on August 8—taking cues from a rise in commodity and crude prices globally.

China’s trade surplus widened to $52.3 billion in July from $48.1 billion in the previous month. It’s expected to narrow to $47.6 billion.

The inflation rate in Taiwan rose by 1.2% in July on an annual basis—above expectations of 1.1% growth and last month’s rise of 0.91% in consumer prices.

The unemployment rate remained unchanged at 4.9% in July—the number of people unemployed remained at ~7.8 million.

Markit published the July services PMI number for European countries (EZU) on August 3. The services activity expanded in Europe.

ADP published the ADP non-farm payrolls for July on August 3. It acts as a prelude to the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Final NFP (non-farm payroll) numbers.

Bitcoin, one of the most commonly used digital currencies, fell by close to 15% over the last four trading sessions. It’s used for online payments.

The United Kingdom’s (EWU) construction PMI (purchasing manager’s index) fell in July to 45.9—slightly below 46 recorded last month.

Major Asian markets (AAXJ) were trading on a negative note on August 3, 2016. The only exception was the Chinese (FXI) index DJ Shanghai.

The RBA (Reserve Bank of Australia) cut the cash rate by 25 basis points to a record low of 1.5% in the monetary policy meeting on Tuesday.

The Australian approvals were published ahead of the RBA’s monetary policy. Building approvals fell by 2.9% on a month-over-month basis.

The manufacturing PMI in the Eurozone (EZU) fell to 52.0 in July 2016 from 52.8 in June. It was slightly above the estimated forecasts of 51.9.

The official manufacturing PMI for China, published by the National Bureau of Statistics of China, came in at 49.9 for July—slightly below June’s reading of 50.

The EBA stress test results for the European Union (EZU) are based on 51 banks. The results were published by the EBA on July 29, 2016.

Sweden’s economy expanded by 3.1% on an annual basis in 2Q16—compared to 4.2% growth in the previous quarter and below expectations of 3.7% growth.

Taiwan’s economy came out of the recessionary phase. The GDP for 2Q16 grew by 0.69%—compared to a contraction of 0.68% in the previous quarter.

Colombia’s central bank increased the benchmark interest rates for the 11th consecutive meeting by 25 basis points to bring the rate to 7.8%.

The Russian economy fell by 0.5% on an annual basis in June—in line with market expectations and against a downwardly revised decline of 0.6% in May.

The US dollar-Japanese yen currency pair is inversely related to the yen. It fell to a low of 102.72 after the Japanese monetary policy release.

The Bank of Japan gave its economic outlook after the monetary policy meeting on July 29. The weak data are due to the slowdown in emerging economies.

The BoJ’s monetary policy was the most awaited macro event this week. It was the first major central bank to expand its easing program after the Brexit vote.

Recently, the trade surplus for Thailand increased as imports fell lower than exports in the Thai economy. THD rose by 0.81% at 1:30 PM EST on July 28.

Inflation levels in Australia rose by 1.0% in 2Q16—slightly below estimated forecasts of a 1.1% rise and softer than the previous quarter’s rise of 1.3%.

The United Kingdom’s economy expanded. The GDP rose by 2.2% on an annual basis in 2Q16—from 2% growth in the previous quarter.

The Japanese yen gained strength during mid-July due to growing uncertainties surrounding the BOE’s (Bank of England) monetary policy.

The Fed had a meeting on July 27 to decide on the monetary policy. The tone of the Fed’s statement made a case for the September meeting to be a live one.

Singapore’s industrial production fell on an annual basis by 0.3% in June—compared to a rise of 0.8% in the previous month and expectations of a 0.2% fall.

Looking at major sector-based SPDR indexes, XOP and XME were the biggest gainers on July 26. They rose by 5.5% and 1.8%, respectively.

Asian currencies traded lower against the dollar ahead of the FOMC statement. The US dollar-Japanese yen currency pair rose by 0.80% at 6:00 AM EST on July 27.

Looking at the performance of the major commodity-driven currencies on July 25, the Nigerian naira was the biggest casualty.

The inflation rate in Singapore fell by 0.7% on an annual basis in June after a 1.6% drop in May and estimated forecasts of a contraction of 1.1%.

The trade surplus for Japan increased to 692.8 billion yen for June—compared to a deficit of 60.9 billion yen in the same month last year.

The overall Ifo business climate suffered a setback in July. Looking at the sector-based performance, the construction and retail sector saw a rise.

The MNI China business sentiment index rose to 55.5 in July—compared to 54.5 in the previous month. It released at the highest level since October 2015.

The composite PMI for the Eurozone released at 52.9 in July—compared to 53.1 in the previous month and above market expectations of a decline to 52.5.

In terms of the major macro data release from the United States (VOO) (QQQ), it would be the FOMC monetary policy release on July 27. 2016.

The Office of National Statistics published the retail sales for June at a six-month low. Retail sales fell by 0.9% on a month-over-month basis.

Latin American markets were trading lower on July 21—taking cues from a fall in commodity prices globally. Crude prices continued a declining trend.

Bank Indonesia kept its benchmark rate unchanged at 6.5% during the monetary policy meeting on July 21 amid expectations of another round of easing.

Key Asian indexes (AAXJ) were trading lower on July 22 as the ECB’s (European Central Bank) monetary policy disappointed the global market.

Mario Draghi was less dovish in the post monetary policy press conference. The press conference started 45 minutes after the monetary policy statement.

The ECB decided to keep the key rates unchanged in the monetary policy review on July 21, 2016. The pound was the major loser among the currencies.

The inflation rate in Malaysia increased by 1.6% on an annual basis in June—compared to 2.0% in the previous month and below forecasts of 1.6%.

On July 20, the euro-US dollar pair was trading range bound around the 1.10 handle. The pair ended the day on a flat note with a slight fall of 0.06%.

The unemployment rate in the United Kingdom reached 11-year low levels as the jobless rate fell to 4.9% for the period from March to May.

The RBA (Reserve Bank of Australia) induced a sell-off in the Australian dollar when it kept the door open for rate cuts in the future. It said inflation rates are still below the target.

Inflation rate in the United Kingdom pushed higher to release at 0.5% on an annual basis in June. However, it was still below the central bank’s target of 2%.

The IMF looks at two risk scenarios for estimating the growth forecasts in case of increased risks. The two new scenarios are “downside” and “severe.”

Looking at the change in growth forecasts in advanced economies, the United Kingdom suffered the largest downward revision of estimates.

The IMF cut its global economic growth forecasts, according to the latest IMF World Economic Output Update dated July 19. The cut in forecasts was expected.

The Australian dollar could gain more if the RBA doesn’t provide a strong hint of cutting interest rates. The central bank is concerned about economic growth.

China’s GDP grew by 6.7% in the second quarter on an annual basis—in line with the previous quarter’s growth and slightly above expectations.

The United States Census Bureau published the US retail sales report for June on July 15. Retail sales rose 0.6% in June on a month-over-month basis.

The major event of the macro calendar of the week starting July 18 will be the ECB’s (European Central Bank) monetary policy meeting on July 21, 2016.

On a quarterly basis, the advance GDP for Singapore rose by 0.8%, marginally below estimated forecasts of 0.9%.

The Bank of England (or BoE) kept interest rates unchanged on July 14, 2016, in its first monetary policy meeting since the Brexit vote.

The contrasting movement among the global markets was primarily due to caution ahead of the Bank of England’s monetary policy release on July 14.

Consumer prices in France increased by 0.2% on an annual basis in June—compared to unchanged inflation in the previous month.

The Central Bank of Malaysia unexpectedly reduced the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 3% on July 13—bringing the rates to two-year low levels.

The Bank of Canada decided to keep the interest rates unchanged at 0.5% after the monetary policy meeting on July 13.

The Bank of England kept interest rates unchanged at 0.5%. The asset purchase program was also unchanged at 375 billion pounds.

The price growth in Germany could signal an increase in inflation levels. This would lessen some pressure on the ECB to announce fresh stimulus measures.

The euro-US dollar currency pair has been trading on a flat note since July 6, 2012. It continued the flat trajectory on July 12.

The FTSE 100, the United Kingdom’s major index (EWU), has been on rising trend after the sharp fall for two days following the Brexit referendum.

The US dollar index, which measures the strength of the US dollar against the major currencies, was on a bull run on July 11.

The Scandinavian indexes were trading on a higher note towards the end of the day on July 11 following higher inflation numbers in Scandinavian countries.

Latin American markets were trading higher on July 9—taking cues from other emerging markets. Brazil’s inflation rate was released lower at 8.8% in June.

Inflation levels in China eased more in June. They grew at the slowest pace since January at 1.9% on an annual basis. They were expected to rise by 1.8%.

The BOE is scheduled to release it monetary policy on July 14—the first after the United Kingdom decided to leave the European Union in a historic referendum.

Statistics Canada published the Canadian labor report on the same day as the US non-farm payroll release. The report suggested a fall of 700 jobs in June.

Average hourly earnings are a major indicator to be considered when looking at employment statistics. Average hourly earnings rose $0.02 to $25.61 in June.

ADP’s June non-farm payroll numbers indicated an increase of 172,000 jobs in the private sector. ADP’s non-farm payrolls have been mostly accurate.