The deal is generally complementary
The Covidien (COV)–Medtronic (MDT) deal is based on complementary products, not necessarily buying out a competitor. The first thing arbs do when conducting an initial merger arbitrage analysis is to go the companies’ respective 10-Ks (or annual reports) and search for the word “competition.” As a general rule, companies will name who their biggest competitors are in the overview of the business. If the counterpart is mentioned in the 10-K, arbs will generally refer to them as a “named competitor.”
Covidien’s named competitors
So, from the Covidien side of things, Medtronic isn’t mentioned as a competitor
Medtronic’s named competitors
In the Cardiac and Vascular group, Medtronic’s biggest competitors are St. Jude Medical (STJ), Boston Scientific (BSX), Abbott Labs (ABT), Edwards LifeScience (EW), Trivascular Technologies (TRIV), Lombardi Medical, Cook, WL Gore, Biotronic, and Sorin.
In the Restorative Technologies Group, its biggest competitors are Johnson and Johnson, Stryker (SYK), Nuvasive (NUVA), Zimmer (ZMH), Alphatec (ATEC), K2M Group (KTWO), LDR Holdings (LDH), Allergan (AGN), Uroplasty (UPI), Astellas Pharma, Integra Lifesciences (IART), Covidien (COV), Smith and Nephew, Conmed, Smith and Nephew, Olympus, and Biomet.
Areas of overlap
So, from the named competitors, it appears there’s at least one area where Covidien and Medtronic compete—the Surgical Technologies segment, which accounted for 10% of Medtronic’s revenue last year. In Surgical Technologies, it’s in the Advanced Energy (a subset of Surgical Technologies) area that’s used for sealing soft tissue and bones. In the advance area segment, the named competitors are Johnson and Johnson, Smith and Nephew, Stryker, Olympus, Conmed, and B Braun Medical.
So, it does appear there’s at least some sort of overlap. On the plus side, it looks like there are some big competitors in the space (Johnson and Johnson, Smith and Nephew, Stryker), which will give the antitrust authorities some comfort. It’s too early to tell if there’s a problem, but even if there were and the antitrust authorities demanded a divestiture, it doesn’t look like it would kill the rationale for the deal.