Guggenheim Solar ETF

Overall, 2019 turned out to be volatile for solar stocks. However, there were some bright spots among broader markets last year.

Enphase Energy (ENPH) stock started off 2020 with a bang and surged more than 12% on January 2. Solar stocks also gained yesterday.

Wall Street analysts have given First Solar a mean target price of $70.9, which indicates a potential upside of 22% for the next 12 months.

Enphase Energy (ENPH) is trading 24x its EPS of $0.98 for the next 12 months—reasonable for a growth stock. SolarEdge (SEDG) is trading 17x its forward EPS.

First Solar stock lost 3.4% last week after the US Court of International Trade blocked the Trump administration from withdrawing a tariff exemption.

Solar stocks have been a sweet spot among equities this year. On average, they’ve gained 50% this year, notably outperforming broader markets.

SunPower announced its plans to spin-off businesses into global solar panel manufacturing and US distributed solar generation and storage.

First Solar’s (FSLR) third-quarter earnings didn’t boost its stock. Investors were disappointed with wide misses on the revenues and earnings front.

SunPower (SPWR) surprised investors with strong third-quarter earnings on October 30. It reported EPS of $0.07, beating analysts’ consensus estimate.

Yesterday, solar inverter maker Enphase Energy (ENPH) yet again reported record earnings, marking its fourth consecutive profitable quarter.

Solar inverter maker Enphase Energy (ENPH) stock was up more than 4% at 11:10 ET today. ENPH recovered after it fell more than 8% yesterday.

Enphase Energy (ENPH) stock rose about 4% on October 17. ENPH has risen steadily this month after a sharp drop, and it has gained almost 430% YTD.

Solar stocks highlighted the top-rallied sectors this year. After hitting multiyear highs, many solar stocks have fallen as much as 40% since August.

Solar stocks have had a great run this year. Strong demand, falling costs, and higher corporate investments have supported these renewables in 2019.

Almost all solar stocks fell sharply on September 26. First Solar (FSLR) fell about 7% yesterday while this year’s top gainer, Enphase Energy, fell 7.5%.

Top solar stock First Solar (FSLR) has surged about 10% in September. FSLR is trading close to its 52-week high and might continue to march upward.

Enphase Energy stock had a solid week, gaining more than 20%. Its recovery is notable after its ~25% correction since its all-time high late last month.

Short-seller Citron Research noted that Generac Holdings could challenge solar microinverter makers Enphase Energy and SolarEdge’s duopoly.

Almost all the solar stocks have had a fantastic run so far this year, and First Solar (FSLR) is no exception. FSLR stock is up more than 45% year-to-date.

Enphase Energy has fallen almost 20% from its all-time high of $35.4. The stock is still sitting at a huge gain of approximately 500% this year.

Trade war intensified in August and that took a toll on the broader markets. However, solar stocks were largely positive and hint at future demand.

First Solar (FSLR) stock fell more than 10% from its 52-week high early this month. In a strong solar environment, FSLR stock has gained more than 45% YTD.

Solar microinverter company Enphase Energy (ENPH) has rallied more than any other stock in the space this year with a more-than-600% gain.

Solar stocks have been on an impressive run this year. So far, Enphase Energy (ENPH) stock has risen more than 530% in 2019.

Solar stocks started last week significantly lower due to increased trade war concerns. The solar energy space is one of the hottest sectors this year.

First Solar (FSLR) reported its second-quarter earnings results yesterday. It reported EPS of -$0.18 for the quarter.

On Wednesday, SunPower reported its second-quarter earnings after the markets closed. The company reported an adjusted loss of $0.22 per share.

There has been a flurry of positive indicators supporting solar stocks recently.

First Solar (FSLR) is scheduled to release its first-quarter earnings on May 2. First Solar is expected to report total revenues of $624.0 million.

First Solar (FSLR) stock rose more than 8% on April 10 and closed almost at its ten-month high.

Let’s look at the current valuations for the top solar stocks in this part of our series. First Solar (FSLR) stock is currently trading at a forward EV-to-EBITDA valuation of 7x.

2019 could be a lot better and a step in a different direction for the solar energy sector as a whole. Solar stocks have already performed well so far.

Since Tesla’s (TSLA) inception, analysts have remained divided in terms of its future growth prospects.

First Solar (FSLR) released its fourth-quarter and full-year 2018 earnings on February 21.

Solar stocks started 2019 on a solid note. So far, the Invesco Solar ETF (TAN) has risen more than 30% in 2019.

SunPower reported its fourth-quarter and fiscal 2018 financial results on February 13. The company reported an adjusted loss of $0.21 per share.

In the past year, First Solar (FSLR) stock returned -37%, while SunPower (SPWR) returned -41%.

First Solar stock is trading at a forward PE ratio of 18x. On average, solar stocks (TAN) are trading at a forward valuation multiple of 14x.

First Solar (FSLR) stock is trading at a forward EV-to-EBITDA multiple of 4x based on analysts’ earnings estimates for 2019.

In 3Q16, Yingli Solar (YGE) posted nearly $218.9 million in total revenues. Analysts estimate that it will report ~$242 million in revenues in 3Q17.

Currently, only one analyst is covering Yingli Solar (YGE) stock. The analyst gave the company a “sell” (or 100%) rating.

Yingli Solar will announce its 3Q17 earnings results on December 6 before market hours. Since its 2Q17 earnings, its stock price has fallen nearly 13.1%.

JA Solar Holdings (JASO) reported $12.1 million as interest expense for 3Q17 compared to $12.4 million in 2Q17 and $11.3 million in 3Q16.

JA Solar’s total cost of sales for 3Q17 was $575.4 million compared to $778.9 million in 2Q17 and $539.3 million in 3Q16.

In 3Q17, JA Solar reported total revenues of $652.6 million compared to $878.2 million in 2Q17 and $624.3 million in 3Q16.

On November 15, 2017, after market hours, JA Solar Holdings (JASO) announced its 3Q17 results for the quarter ended September 30, 2017.

Canadian Solar’s revenues from the sale of electricity in 3Q17 totaled $9.6 million, which was marginally lower than $9.8 million in 2Q17.

In 4Q17, Canadian Solar expects its solar module shipments to reach ~1.7–1.8 GW.

Canadian Solar (CSIQ) reported its 3Q17 earnings results on November 9. CSIQ declared earnings per share of $0.22, slightly below the analyst consensus estimate of $0.26.

In 3Q17, Vivint Solar (VSLR) posted $34.7 million as its cost of revenue for its operating leases and incentives, higher than the $33.8 million in 2Q17 but lower than the $39.3 million in 3Q16.

Vivint Solar reported $75.1 million in consolidated revenue for 3Q17 compared to $73.0 million in 2Q17 and $41.3 million 3Q16.

Vivint Solar (VSLR) reported a cost per watt of $2.94 for 3Q17, higher than the $2.88 it reported in 2Q17 and $3.85 in 3Q16.

Vivint Solar posted $75.1 million in revenues in 3Q17, up by 82% on a YoY (year-over-year) basis.

SunPower (SPWR) reports its revenue under the power plant, residential, and commercial segments. The latter two segments are together called the distributed generation segments.

SunPower (SPWR) announced its 3Q17 earnings before market hours on November 2. In this series, we’ll examine SunPower’s 3Q17 results in detail and compare the results with analysts’ estimates.

SunEdison (SUNEQ) formed TerraForm Global in early 2015 to own and operate renewable energy assets in emerging markets.

A yieldco is an investment vehicle formed by a parent company to own operating assets. They’re expected to generate stable cash flows.

SunEdison (SUNEQ) announced the intent to acquire residential rooftop solar (TAN) power provider Vivint Solar (VSLR) on July 19, 2015. However, the market reacted negatively.

Factors that spearheaded SunEdison’s bankruptcy were leveraged acquisitions and the liquidity crisis.

SunEdison filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy on April 21, 2016. It’s currently trading on OTC (over-the-counter) markets under the ticker SUNEQ.

Relative valuation PE (price-to-earnings) and EV-to-EBITDA multiples are commonly used to determine relative valuation. The forward PE multiple considers a company’s equity based on earnings forecasts for the next 12 months. On September 29, 2017, First Solar’s forward PE multiple was reported to be 21.9x. This PE multiple was higher than JA Solar’s (JASO) 9.1x and Canadian Solar’s […]

Debt profile As of December 31, 2016, First Solar (FSLR) had total debt of $188.4 million, lower than its debt of $289 million at the end of 2015. The company’s debt is denominated in various currencies, including the US dollar, Malaysian ringgit, and euros. Credit metrics With a net worth of over $5 billion and $555.8 […]

Pre-tax loss First Solar’s (FSLR) pretax loss in 2016 was $471.7 million, compared with a profit of $519.8 million in 2015. The loss could be attributed to the huge $729 million restructuring pre-tax charges faced by the company in the fourth quarter of 2016. Net loss in 2016 First Solar reported a net loss of $358.0 […]

Cost of sales First Solar’s (FSLR) Components segment saw its cost of sales rise 6% to $1.1 billion in fiscal 2016, from $1.0 billion in fiscal 2015. On the other hand, despite higher volumes, the Systems segment’s cost of sales fell 29% to $1.1 billion in fiscal 2016 from $1.6 billion in fiscal 2015. Overall, the company’s cost […]

Revenue trend First Solar’s (FSLR) revenue is primarily from turn-key projects, project maintenance, project sales, PV (photovoltaic) module sales to third parties, and PPAs (power purchase agreements) for sale of electricity. In this part, we’ll examine First Solar’s financial performance. As we discussed previously, First Solar has two main business segments: Components and Systems. The design, […]

India’s rising electricity demand According to the EIA’s (U.S. Energy Information Administration) 2017 International Energy Outlook, India’s electricity generation is expected to increase by 3.2% per year through 2040, to meet increasing electricity demand in rural areas. Solar outlook Even though coal is the primary fuel used for electricity generation in India, the focus on renewable […]

The Americas The US PV (photovoltaic) market made up ~83% ($2.9 billion) of First Solar’s (FSLR) revenue. The United States has typically been First Solar’s largest market, and where many of its prominent projects and customers are located. First Solar has completed the construction of Del Sur, a 26 MW (megawatt) solar project in Honduras. It commenced […]

Operating segments Previously, we looked at First Solar’s (FSLR) history. The photovoltaic module manufacturer operates two business segments: Components and Systems. The Components segment First Solar is a manufacturer of solar (TAN) photovoltaic (or PV) modules. First Solar also designs and sells these modules. They manufacture thin-film PVs, in which the semiconductor material used is […]

First Solar (FSLR) produces solar energy equipment. In this series, we’ll look at its performance and the outlook for the industry.

Green bonds are used by organizations worldwide to fund environmentally sustainable projects such as renewable energy, energy efficiency, and clean water.

As of December 9, 2016, among its major peers, Yingli Solar had the highest forward EV-to-EBITDA multiple of 14.3x.

Yingli Solar (YGE) reported about 365 MW of solar (TAN) module shipments for 3Q16, as compared to 662 MW in 2Q16 and 460 MW in 3Q15.

SunPower expects to incur about $225 million–$275 million in restructuring charges as part of closing its Philippine-based Fab 2 manufacturing facility.

The market cheered SunPower’s restructuring initiatives. The initiatives are expected to reduce the company’s costs and improve its future margins.

For 3Q16, analysts expect Yingli Solar to report a gross profit of about $31.0 million with a gross margin of about 12.4%, which is in line with the company’s gross margin guidance.

Yingli (or Yingli Solar) (YGE) is set to announce its 3Q16 earnings on December 8, 2016. In this series, we’ll look at analysts’ expectations for Yingli Solar’s 3Q16 earnings.

Trina Solar’s interest expenses have consistently been on the rise over the last two years. For 3Q16, they were $28.6 million compared to $26.0 million in 2Q16.

In 3Q16, Trina Solar (TSL) reported a gross profit of $125.6 million compared to $176.3 million in 2Q16. On a YoY basis, the company’s gross profit fell nearly 9.0%.

In 3Q16, Trina Solar’s (TSL) consolidated revenue came in at around $741.0 million compared to analysts’ expectations of about $823.0 million.

Trina Solar (TSL) had a total module shipment guidance of 1.55–1.65 GW (gigawatts) for 3Q16. However, it reported 1.36 GW of total solar (TAN) module shipments.

Trina Solar (TSL) announced its 3Q16 earnings results before market hours on November 23, 2016. In this series, we’ll take a look at the results and compare them with analysts’ expectations.

Following its 3Q16 results, Canadian Solar revised down its US GAAP revenue guidance for 2016 to $2.8 billion–$2.9 billion.

Canadian Solar posted mixed earnings for 3Q16. It reported EPS (earnings per share) of $0.27 compared to the analyst consensus of $0.24.

On November 16, 2016, First Solar (FSLR) announced an update on its Series 6 product transition and revised its fiscal 2016 guidance.

Canadian Solar’s interest expenses fell considerably in 2Q16 to $11.9 million from $16.1 million at the end of 1Q16.

Canadian Solar (CSIQ) is set to announce its 3Q16 earnings results on November 21, 2016, before market hours.

For the coming quarter, analysts expect Sunrun’s (RUN) revenue to be ~$130 million, and they expect significant improvement in company revenue in the latter half of 1H17.

Sunrun (SUN) reported an operating loss of ~$51 million for 3Q16 compared to an operating loss of $48 million in 2Q16 and $63 million in 3Q15.

For 3Q16, Sunrun’s (RUN) consolidated revenue came in at ~$112 million against analysts’ expectations of $135 million.

Sunrun (RUN) announced its 3Q16 earnings results on November 10, 2016, after market hours. Sunrun reported earnings per share of $0.16, compared to analysts’ consensus EPS estimate of -$0.20.

Vivint Solar (VSLR) reported $39.3 million in operating leases and incentives revenue costs for 3Q16 compared to $38.5 million in 2Q16 and $37.6 million in 3Q15.

Vivint Solar (VSLR) reported a record low cost per watt of $2.85 for 3Q16 as compared to $2.94 in 2Q16 and $3.12 in 3Q15.

Sunrun’s (RUN) gross profit for 2Q16 came in at $22.3 million. For 3Q16, analysts expect the company to report a gross profit of $23.3 million.

Of the 11 analysts covering Sunrun (RUN) stock, nine analysts (81.8%) gave the company a “buy” rating. Two analysts (18.2%) rated it a “hold,” and there weren’t any “sell” ratings on Sunrun’s stock on November 4, 2016.

One reason that renewable energy hasn’t caught on in a big way is the cost associated with energy generation.

On December 15, 2015, the Obama administration signed a bill for the extension of tax credits to renewable energy.

Analysts estimate that Vivint Solar (VSLR) will report revenue of $44.0 million in 3Q16, which is almost a 26.0% rise on a quarter-over-quarter basis.

SolarCity’s interest expenses have risen more than fourfold in the last two years.

Since the release of SolarCity’s 2Q16 results, three of the 15 analysts covering the stock lowered their price targets.

Between its 2Q16 earnings release on August 9 and October 21, 2016, SolarCity’s stock price fell nearly 19%.