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The Odds of Devon Energy Beating Its 1Q18 Earnings Estimates

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Odds of beating earnings estimates

In the last four quarters, Devon Energy (DVN) beat its consensus EPS (earnings per share) estimates in 1Q17, 2Q17, and 3Q17. However, DVN missed its EPS estimate in 4Q17. In the last four quarters, DVN beat the consensus EPS estimate 75.0% of the time and missed the consensus EPS estimate 25.0% of the time.

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DVN’s stock price reaction to its 4Q17 earnings

Devon Energy (DVN) announced its 4Q17 earnings on February 20 after the market closed. In 4Q17, Devon Energy reported revenues of ~$4.0 billion, higher than the Wall Street analyst consensus of ~$3.5 billion. 

However, DVN stock missed the EPS estimates by $0.25 in 4Q17. DVN reported an adjusted profit of $0.38 per share, whereas the Wall Street analyst consensus was for the company to report a profit of $0.63 per share.

Following the earnings release, worse-than-expected earnings saw Devon Energy’s stock price decrease from $34.59 to $30.35 in two sessions.

DVN’s year-to-date performance

Year-to-date in 2018, DVN is one of the negatively performing upstream companies with a -14.3% return. DVN is broadly underperforming the SPDR S&P Oil and Gas Exploration & Production ETF (XOP). XOP has ~78.0% exposure to the oil and gas exploration and production industry. XOP is up ~5.4% in 2018. 

To learn more about the range of upstream stock performers in 2018, please read 2018’s Best- and Worst-Performing Upstream Energy Stocks.

Other oil and gas producers

In the last four quarters, upstream players ConocoPhillips (COP), Pioneer Natural Resources (PXD), and Murphy Oil (MUR) have beaten the earnings expectations ~50.0%, ~100.0%, and ~75.0% of the time, respectively.

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