Solid Uptake of This Drug Could Drive Gilead’s 2017 Product Sales



Non-HCV product sales

Gilead Sciences (GILD) has projected its 2017 non-hepatitis C (or non-HCV) net product sales to be in the range of $15.0 billion–$15.5 billion. Like in 2016, the company is expected to witness solid demand for its tenofovir alafenamide–based (or TAF) HIV drugs in 2017.

Gilead Sciences’ TAF-based drug, Genvoya, managed to surpass the $1.0 billion milestone in 2016. This achievement was indicative of the solid clinical profile of the TAF-based HIV franchise, both in terms of efficacy and safety. To know more about Gilead Sciences’ foray into the HIV segment, read Behind Gilead Sciences’ Dominance in HIV.

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The above diagram shows how Gilead Sciences aims to meet its 2017 non-HCV product sales guidance. If the company is unable to meet these sales projections due to pricing pressures from its payers and increased competition from its peers, including Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), Pfizer (PFE), and GlaxoSmithKline (GSK), its shares could see a slump, along with the shares of the Health Care Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLV). Gilead Sciences makes up ~3.3% of XLV’s total portfolio holdings.

Market leadership

While non-HCV product sales accounted for 40% of Gilead Sciences’ 2015 revenue, the segment’s share of GILD’s total revenue rose to 50% in 2016.

According to Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and Ipsos Healthcare U.S. HIV Monitor Q3 2016, there are ~1.2 million HIV patients in the United States. Of these patients, 87%, or ~1.0 million, are diagnosed, and 860,000 of those diagnosed are treated with antiretroviral therapy. Of these patients, 674,000 are using at least one drug from Gilead Sciences’ HIV franchise. These numbers highlight the level of market penetration of Gilead Sciences’ HIV product portfolio in the United States.

In the next article, we’ll discuss the trends in Gilead Sciences’ TAF-based HIV franchise in greater detail.


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