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How CONSOL Energy’s Stock Price Reacted to Past Earnings Misses

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CONSOL Energy’s stock price action following 3Q16 earnings

CONSOL (CNX) announced its 3Q16 earnings on November 1, 2016, before the markets opened. After its 3Q16 earnings were announced, CONSOL Energy’s stock price fell ~2% in three trading sessions. In the last three months leading into the earnings, CONSOL Energy’s stock price has risen ~3% despite flat crude oil (USO) (UWTI) (DWTI) prices during the same period.

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CONSOL Energy’s stock price trend change

After losing ~91% of its market capitalization between June 2014 and January 2016, CONSOL Energy’s (CNX) stock price is finally showing signs of a new uptrend. In February 2016, as seen in the above chart, CONSOL Energy’s stock price made a higher high for the first time in almost two years. Since the January 2016 bottom, CONSOL Energy’s stock price is up by a whopping ~267%.

CNX’s 2016 relative performance

In 2016, CNX is outperforming bigger upstream companies from the S&P 500 (SPY) with returns of ~115%. Devon Energy (DVN), Pioneer Natural Resources (PXD), and EOG Resources (EOG) are up by ~28%, ~38%, and ~31%, respectively.

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CNX’s stock price behavior after past earnings misses

In the last seven quarters, CNX has missed earnings expectations four times: 2Q16, 4Q15, 3Q15, and 2Q15. CONSOL Energy reported its 2Q16 earnings before the markets opened on July 26, 2016. In 2Q16, excluding the one-time items, CONSOL reported a loss of $0.21 per share, $0.04 worse than the consensus for a loss of $0.17 per share. Following the earnings release, CONSOL Energy’s stock price rose ~13% in four sessions in a contrarian reaction.

CNX reported its 4Q15 earnings before the markets opened on January 29, 2016. In 4Q15, excluding the one-time items, CNX reported a loss of $0.11 per share, $0.02 worse than the consensus for a loss of $0.09 per share. Following the earnings release, CONSOL Energy’s stock price rose ~35% in six sessions in a contrarian reaction.

In 3Q15, CNX reported a loss of $0.28 per share, $0.25 worse than the consensus for a loss of $0.03 per share. Following the earnings release, worse-than-expected earnings saw CONSOL Energy’s stock price fall ~25% in just four sessions.

A downward reaction occurred after 2Q15 earnings. CNX’s stock price fell ~32% in about four weeks after missing the consensus earnings estimates by $0.37 per share.

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