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How Has COP Stock Reacted after Past Earnings Misses?



ConocoPhillips’s stock price action following 2Q16 earnings

ConocoPhillips (COP) announced its 2Q16 earnings on July 28, 2016, before the market opened. After its 2Q16 earnings are announced, ConocoPhillips’s stock price decreased by ~1% in the three trading sessions.

In the three months leading up to the earnings release, ConocoPhillips’s stock price decreased by ~11%, mainly due to a ~9% decrease in crude oil (USO) (UWTI) (DWTI) prices during the same period.

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ConocoPhillips’s stock price trend changes

After losing ~62% of its market capitalization between July 2014 and February 2016 period, ConocoPhillips’s (COP) stock price is finally showing signs of a new uptrend. In April 2016, ConocoPhillips’s stock crossed its 200-day moving average for the first time in 17 months. Since February 2016, ConocoPhillips’s stock price has risen by ~29%.

COP’s 2016 relative performance

For 2016, COP is underperforming bigger S&P 500 (SPY) upstream companies. COP has fallen by ~14%, whereas bigger oil and gas producers Devon Energy (DVN), Occidental Petroleum (OXY), and EOG Resources (EOG) are up by ~14%, ~11%, and ~12%, respectively.

COP’s stock price behavior after past earnings misses

In the last six quarters, ConocoPhillips missed the earnings expectation only once, in 4Q15. Excluding the one-time items, COP reported EPS (earnings per share) of -$0.90, $0.25 worse than the estimated EPS of -$0.65. COP reported its 4Q15 earnings before the market opened on February 4, 2016. The worse-than-expected earnings led to COP’s stock price decreasing by ~15% in just two sessions.


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