Will Speculation of Favorable Weather Drag Wheat Prices Down?


Nov. 24 2015, Published 11:43 a.m. ET

Wheat prices drop

December wheat futures prices on the Chicago Board of Trade (or CBOT) closed at $4.88 per bushel, falling by 0.46% on November 20, 2015. Wheat futures prices fell due to speculative technical selling amid favorable weather projections. Despite the price rise on CBOT, the Teucrium Wheat Fund (WEAT) fell by 1.1% on November 20, 2015.

Weather conditions in the United States might remain favorable for the wheat crop for the week ending on November 28, 2015. Weather forecasts are calling for rains in the majority of areas in the Great Plains and the Midwest regions. The weather forecast supported the wheat supply sentiment on November 20, and it motivated speculative technical selling on the CBOT, dragging prices down by 0.46% on the day.

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Bearish fundamentals are pushing wheat prices down. But last week’s International Grains Council’s report of declining production projections in Ukraine due to dryness concerns raised hopes. However, the market ignored the report and continued to keep prices under pressure due to higher French wheat production of 41 million tons, which rose more than 9.3% year-over-year.

Tunisia bought 125,000 tons of US milling quality wheat and 92,000 tons of durum quality wheat. The slower US wheat exports supported the wheat price sentiment on November 20, 2015. However, the US dollar index fell 0.65% on the day, which could hurt the wheat export sentiment and in turn the futures prices.

Stock discussion

Share prices of Pilgrim’s Pride (PPC), General Mills (GIS), and Hormel Foods (HRL) fell by 0.6%, 0.3%, and 1.0%, respectively, on November 20, 2015. However, prices of J.M. Smucker (SJM) increased by 0.93% on the day. The VanEck Vectors Agribusiness ETF (MOO) fell by 0.60% on November 20, 2015.


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