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GDP Growth May Influence December Election Results in Spain

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Nov. 20 2020, Updated 2:15 p.m. ET

GDP increased at a quarterly rate of 0.8% in 3Q15

According to the National Statistics Institute, Spain’s GDP (gross domestic product) grew at a quarterly rate of 0.8% in the third quarter of 2015 compared to 1.0% in the second quarter of 2015. With a decline in growth by 0.2% from the past quarter, the iShares MSCI Spain Capped ETF (EWP) has fallen 5.9% over the past three months as of November 25, 2015.

Abengoa SA (ABGB), Telefónica (TEF), Banco Santander (SAN), and Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria (BBVA) fell 62.2%, 13.4%, 12.2%, and 11.7%, respectively. Grifols SA (GRFS) rose 13.7% over the past three months as of November 25, 2015.

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GDP increased at an annual rate of 3.4% in 3Q15

On a yearly basis, GDP growth in 3Q15 for Spain stands at 3.4% compared to 3.2% in the previous quarter. Both the quarterly as well as the annual growth figures match the one released in the flash estimate. The growth in GDP was mainly attributed to an increase in domestic demand from 3.3% to 3.9% in the third quarter. The increase in domestic demand has offset the negative contribution from external demand, which has moved from -0.1% to -0.5% in the third quarter.

Imports and exports of goods and services

In 3Q15, imports increased by 4.0%, and exports grew by 2.8% compared to 1.6% and 1.4%, respectively, in the previous quarter. Year-over-year, growth rates in imports and exports were 7.7% and 5.6%, respectively, in the third quarter compared to 7.0% and 6.2%, respectively, in the second quarter.

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Employment increases at an annual rate of 3.1%

Employment rose 0.7% in the third quarter compared to 0.9% in the previous quarter. However, on an annual basis, employment increased at a rate of 3.1%.

Consumption expenditures saw positive contributions in the third quarter

In 3Q15, consumption expenditure rose 1.0% compared to 0.9% in 2Q15. On a yearly basis, it has increased to 3.5% in the third quarter from 2.9% in the previous quarter.

Rising employment and an increase in domestic demand may help Spain achieve its target GDP of 3.3% this year. However, it’s yet to be seen if this improved economic condition will be positive for Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy, who will be up for reelection on December 20, 2015.

For more information, you can read Home Prices Saw a Broad-Based Gain in September. To remain updated on the economic front, you can refer to our Global ETF Analysis page.

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