uploads///Same Store Sales Growth Trend

Comp: Trends in Same-Store Sales for Fast Casual Restaurants

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Changes in same-store sales growth

Previously, we discussed 2Q15 same-store sales growth. In this part, we will look at how this growth has trended over the trailing four quarters. This will help us know if the company’s growth has worsened or improved over time.

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The best and worst performers

Chipotle’s (CMG) growth has decelerated over the past four quarters and in the second quarter its same-store sales growth declined to 4.3% from 17.3% in the corresponding quarter a year ago. Chipotle saw exceptional growth in 2014, which makes this year’s performance difficult to compare against. The Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR (XLY) has 1% of its holdings in Chipotle and 4% in McDonald’s (MCD).

Habit’s (HABT) same-store sales growth also decelerated, but compared to 2Q14, it grew from 6.3% to 8.9% in 2Q15. Habit’s growth has also remained mostly above its comparable peers, as you can see in the chart above. Shake Shack (SHAK) had the highest same-store sales growth in 2Q15, which grew from 4.5% in 2Q14.

Noodles has performed the worst over the past four quarters with one of the lowest same-store sales growths in the fast casual segment. However, same-store sales growth of 0.1% in 2Q15 was better than -0.6% growth in 2Q14. Panera (PNRA) has also been at the bottom in terms of same-store sales. However, the company’s 2Q15 same-store sales grew 2.4%, which improved from 0.1% in 2Q14.

Except Fiesta’s (FRGI) Pollo Tropical, Zoe’s (ZOES), and Chipotle, all restaurants experienced positive growth in same-stores sales in 2Q15 compared to 2Q14.

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