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Will Crude Oil Prices Hold above $50 per Barrel This Week?

PART:
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Part 7
Will Crude Oil Prices Hold above $50 per Barrel This Week? PART 7 OF 10

OPEC’s Crude Oil Production Fell Marginally in May 2016

OPEC’s crude oil production

A Reuters survey reported that OPEC’s (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) crude oil production fell slightly by 12,000 bpd (barrels per day) to 32.5 MMbpd (million barrels per day) in May 2016—compared to the previous month. The fall in production was driven by the fall in production from Libya, Nigeria, and Iraq. Read the previous part of the series to know why production fell in Libya and Nigeria.

OPEC&#8217;s Crude Oil Production Fell Marginally in May 2016

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OPEC members’ crude oil production

Algeria, Angola, Ecuador, Indonesia, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Libya, Nigeria, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the UAE (United Arab Emirates), and Venezuela are members of OPEC. According to Reuters, these countries’ May 2016 crude oil production figures are as follows:

  • Algeria fell slightly by 1,000 bpd to 1.1 MMbpd in May 2016
  • Angola fell by 9,000 bpd to 1.7 MMbpd in May over April
  • Iran rose by 15,000 bpd to 3.6MMbpd in May over April
  • Iraq fell by 7,000 bpd to 4.28 MMbpd in May over April
  • Kuwait rose by 12,000 bpd to 2.8 MMbpd in May over April
  • Nigeria fell by 33,000 bpd to 1.2 MMbpd in May over April
  • Saudi Arabia rose by 10,000 bpd to 10.3 MMbpd in May over April
  • UAE rose by 8,000 bpd to 2.9 MMbpd in May over April
  • Venezuela fell slightly by 4,000 bpd to 2.4 MMbpd in May over April

OPEC’s crude oil production estimates 

The EIA (U.S. Energy Information Administration) estimates that OPEC’s crude oil production will rise to 32.4 MMbpd in 2016—compared to 31.6 MMbpd in 2015. It will likely rise to 33.1 MMbpd in 2017. The rise in crude oil production from OPEC will have a negative impact on crude oil prices.

Impact on crude oil producers

OPEC didn’t cap its production in the meeting on June 2. The failure of the recent Doha oil producers meeting means that oil prices will fall more.

Middle East countries’ dependency on oil export revenues for budgets and the fight to maintain market share are driving oil producers to pump more to offset lower oil prices. Multiyear low crude oil prices impact oil producers’ margins like Saudi Aramco, National Iranian Oil Company, Oman Oil Company, Warren Resources (WRES), Bill Barrett (BBG), and Bonanza Creek Energy (BCEI).

The ups and downs in oil prices also impact ETFs and ETNs including the VelocityShares 3X Inverse Crude Oil ETN (DWTI), the First Trust Energy AlphaDEX Fund (FXN), and the Vanguard Energy ETF (VDE).

In the next part of this series, we’ll analyze Saudi Arabia’s crude oil production and how it impacts the crude oil market.

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