Intrepid Potash Inc
Is This Why CF’s Stock Has Rallied?
Like CF Industries’ (CF) sales, its margins are also expected to expand YoY (year-over-year) in Q2 2018 and the next four quarters.
Potash Prices Showed Weakness for the Week Ending April 21
Last week, potash prices continued to show weakness week-over-week. Prices were broadly flat to positive for the week ending April 21.
Why India’s potash price discount won’t affect share prices
The significance of potash price Wholesale potash price is one of two factors (the other being sales volume) that influence potash producers’ revenues. When prices rise, so does revenue, which will translate to higher profitability (margins), earnings, and share prices. However, when prices fall, they will have a negative impact on fundamentals and share prices. […]
Key trends Intrepid Potash investors should watch for in 2014
After a year of declining sales and increasing costs, management seems much more optimistic regarding potash as well as Langbeinite.
A Look at Earnings Estimates for Agrium in 2017
Over the next four quarters ending in 3Q17, Agrium’s EBITDA (earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization) margin is estimated to expand to 12%.
Intrepid Potash’s Margins Are Expected to Expand in 2017
For each of the next four quarters, Intrepid Potash’s EBITDA is estimated to grow YoY. For 1Q17, analysts estimate EBITDA of $2.6 million.
Was Morgan Stanley’s Call on Mosaic Already Priced In?
Phosphates and potash have been significantly lower year-over-year. It appears that investors already priced in the limited upside for Mosaic well before the downgrade.
How Did Agrium’s Retail Shipments Perform in 2Q16?
Agrium’s (AGU) Retail segment’s shipments declined by 0.03% to 4.84 million tons in 2Q16, down from 4.86 million tons in 2Q15.
Was Uralkali’s new business strategy really Canpotex’s fault?
Uralkali’s latest move might be considered a punishment. But also note that outside forces can create a more competitive environment.
Why is the end use of potash internationally diversified?
As crops widely trade in the international market, they often converge with each other if transportation costs aren’t so high.
What Are Analysts’ Recommendations for Mosaic?
Out of the 21 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg, 36% had a “buy” rating, 50% had a “hold” rating, and only 14% had a “sell” rating on Mosaic.
Ratings and Price Target for Intrepid Potash
As of January 23, 2017, one of the six analysts covering Intrepid Potash has a “buy” recommendation for the company over the next 12 months.
How Intrepid Potash’s Gross Margin Compares with Its Peers
With a gross deficit, Intrepid Potash reported an adjusted net loss per share of $0.23 in 2Q16, which would also make it the fifth consecutive quarter that the company has reported a net adjusted loss.
Is the Trio Segment an Answer to Intrepid’s Challenges?
Over the years, Intrepid Potash (IPI) has shifted its business model to focus more on Trio.
Why Intrepid Potash Is the Biggest Loser among Its Peers
In this article, we’ll compare the company’s potash cost of goods per ton to its average selling price per ton and those of other players in the market.
Intrepid Potash Rose Due to Analyst Upgrade on February 13
On February 13, Intrepid Potash (IPI) rose 15.2% and closed at $2.27 from the previous day’s close, while the S&P 500 Index closed 52 basis points higher.
What You Need to Know from CF Industries’ 4Q15 Earnings Conference
CF Industries Holdings’ (CF) stock rose by almost 8.4% on February 18, 2016, the day after the company’s 4Q15 earnings release.
Are Potash Prices Beginning to Lift?
Potash prices have fallen significantly over the years. This trend has put pressure on existing companies to justify their expansion costs.
How Potash Shipments Performed in 1Q16
Mosaic (MOS) and PotashCorp (POT) were hit the hardest, with their respective shipments declining by 24% each to 1.5 million tons and 1.7 million tons year-over-year.
Why potash stocks around the world crash as Uralkali leaves Belarus Potash Company
Industry concentration Industry concentration is a factor that affects competition. When only a few firms occupy a large portion of the industry’s revenue, competition tends to be less, as companies try to live with each other to maintain profits. On the other hand, when there are a large number of firms vying for market share, […]
PotashCorp’s Margins Contract, but How Much?
Year-over-year, each of PotashCorp’s three segments experienced a margin contraction in 4Q16. How has that affected PotashCorp (POT)?
What 2017 Meant for Potash Producers
Potash fertilizers Most of the fertilizer companies we’ve discussed in this series sell all or some of the three NPK (nitrogen, phosphorous, and potassium) macronutrients. To learn more about these macronutrients’ key role in agriculture, read Agricultural Fertilizer Industry: Your Comprehensive Overview. In this part, we’ll look at what 2017 meant for potash producers. Price trends […]
What Are Analysts’ Recommendations for PotashCorp?
According to 21 analysts surveyed by Reuters, the median price target for PotashCorp over the next 12 months stood at $17, which is about 6.5% below the current market price.
How Lower Fertilizer Prices Are Hurting Intrepid Potash
Realized prices for fertilizer companies are the main culprit for the dismal performances among companies in the agricultural fertilizer sector.
Why CF Industries’ Sales Rose in 1Q17
For 1Q17, CF Industries’ (CF) sales rose 3% year-over-year to $1.04 billion from $1.0 billion in 1Q16.
No Surprise: Mosaic’s Margins Contracted
Overall margins for Mosaic (MOS) contracted significantly year-over-year.
Agrium’s Retail Crop Nutrient Shipments Rise in 3Q16
In 3Q16, Agrium’s Retail segment contributed 84% of total gross profit, with crop protection and crop nutrients making up the majority of segment sales.
Fertilizer Affordability Pressure Eased Last Week
While the Fertilizer Affordability Index was below one, it’s still higher compared to the average levels observed since January 2016.
An Update on the PotashCorp-Agrium Merger
On September 12, 2016, PotashCorp and Agrium announced their intention to combine in a merger of equals. But China and India have set conditions.
Fertilizer Prices and Input Cost Movements as of April 15
Fertilizer prices constitute the biggest factor impacting the performance of fertilizer companies. In this series, we’ll see how NPK prices and the prices of raw materials changed in the week ended April 8, 2016.
Fertilizers Were Affordable for the Week Ending June 23
According to the Fertilizer Affordability Index, 2017 has been one of the most affordable years for fertilizers. Mosaic issues the index.
Short-Term and Long-Term Outlook for Potash Prices
The supply-demand imbalance will further push down potash prices in the coming years. It will hurt companies such as PotashCorp, Mosaic, Intrepid Potash (IPI), and Agrium (AGU).
Analysts’ Ratings for Major Agribusiness Stocks: February Update
So far this year, some major agribusiness stocks, particularly in the fertilizer sector, have performed poorly.
How Do Recent Potash Prices Compare with Their 15-Year Average?
The average weekly price of MOP (muriate of potash) in Vancouver remained unchanged for the week ended May 20, 2016.
How Did Fertilizer Stocks Perform Last Week?
In the week ending November 3, agricultural fertilizer stocks were broadly positive.
Fertilizers Were More Affordable in Week Ended November 25
For the week ending November 25, fertilizer affordability fell to 0.65x from 0.66x week-over-week.
Potash on the Barrel: Prices for Five Major Producers
On average, potash prices for these five producers fell ~33% YoY in 4Q16. Excess supply and weak demand added downward pressure.
History’s Not on POT’s Side when It Comes to Earnings Growth
When we look at the past five quarters, we see that PotashCorp has missed all its earnings estimates.
Fertilizers Were Less Affordable Last Week
Last week, fertilizer affordability rose to 0.66x from 0.65x week-over-week. A ratio below one means that fertilizers are more affordable than during the base year.
PotashCorp: Analyst Recommendations, Price Target for February
PotashCorp reported diluted EPS (earnings per share) of $0.07 for 4Q16, which missed analysts’ estimate of $0.09 per share.
Why Were Fertilizers More Affordable Last Week?
In the week ending March 17, 2017, the Fertilizer Affordability Index fell to 0.61x from 0.63x the previous week—better than last year.
How Did the Fertilizer Affordability Index Perform Last Week?
In the week ending April 7, 2017, fertilizer affordability didn’t change. Notably, the Fertilizer Affordability Index remained flat at 0.60x week-over-week.
The Mosaic Company: Why MOS stock dropped on a market overreaction
Fertilizer stocks plummeted on the heels of the announcement that Russia’s Uralkali was quitting the Belarusian Potash Company cartel. The market overreacted.
Fertilizer Prices and Stocks Are on Pause: What’s Going On?
Last week, which ended September 7, the VanEck Vectors Agribusiness ETF (MOO) fell 1.8%, while the S&P 500 Index fell 1%.
How Did Potash Prices Change throughout the World Last Week?
The average weekly price of MOP (muriate of potash) at Vancouver has been flat since the beginning of March.
Fertilizers Were Affordable for the Week Ending March 24
In the week ending March 24, the Fertilizer Affordability Index rose slightly to 0.62x from 0.61x the previous week. Last year, the index stood at 0.66x.
Fertilizer Affordability Index for the Week Ending March 31
In the week ending March 31, 2017, the Fertilizer Affordability Index fell slightly to 0.60x from 0.62x the previous week.
Fertilizer Prices Update: Week Ended December 8
CVR Partners (UAN) emerged as the top gainer last week, rising 17.4% week-over-week to close at $3.70. CF Industries (CF) followed, rising 4.4% to close at $39.30.
Were Potash Prices Positive for Producers Last Week?
Average weekly potash prices in Vancouver fell 2% to $220 per metric ton during the week ending September 9—compared to the previous week.
Valuation Multiple Update for CVR Partners after Its 4Q15 Earnings
After CVR Partners’ 4Q15 earnings release, its valuation fell to 7.5x from 8.8x. As of February 21, it was trading close to the peer median of 7.3x.
How Subdued Potash Prices Have Extended to Potash Players
The weekly average price for potash in Vancouver remained flat in the week ended June 24, 2016. Prices are below their 15-year average of $290 per metric ton.
Uralkali’s Forecasts for 2016 Global Potash Demand
According to Uralkali, the biggest drop in demand should come from China, which has delayed its contract negotiations.
What PotashCorp’s Most Bullish Analyst Has to Say
Out of the 22 Wall Street analysts covering PotashCorp (POT), five have a “buy” recommendation on the company, 12 have a “hold” recommendation, and five have a “sell” recommendation.
Update: July 13 Fertilizer Stocks and Price Movements
Last week, which ended July 13, was broadly negative for the agribusiness sector. The broader market index was positive.
Who Are the Biggest Players in the Fertilizer Industry?
There’s a handful of big players in the agricultural fertilizer industry. Setting up business requires huge capital, which makes for a high barrier to entry.
Fertilizer Affordability Still Largely Unchanged Last Week
Last week, which ended October 12, fertilizer affordability was unchanged week-over-week.
Last Week Proved Negative for Fertilizer Stocks
The week ended February 17, 2017, was negative for agricultural fertilizer stocks. In this series, we’ll take a look at the performance of eight major publicly listed agricultural fertilizer companies.
A Near-Term Outlook for Potash Fertilizers’ Capacity Additions
Most of the world’s potash reserves are concentrated in Canada and Russia. PotashCorp (POT) in North America is one of the largest and lowest-cost producers of potash fertilizers.
How Do Analysts View CF Industries?
On February 10, 2017, six analysts recommended either a “strong buy” or a “buy” for CF Industries (CF) stock.
Intrepid Potash’s Next-12-Month Recommendations and Price Targets
Of the four analysts surveyed by Reuters on March 23, 2017, none had “strong buy” or “buy” recommendations on Intrepid Potash (IPI) for the next 12 months.
Your Pre-3Q16 Earnings Estimates for PotashCorp
PotashCorp (POT) is set to announce its 3Q16 earnings on October 27, 2016. It’s still in negative returns territory, falling 7.2% so far this year.
Fertilizer Affordability for Week Ended August 25
Fertilizers have displayed a high level of affordability this year, which has supported the strong demand for fertilizers.
Potash Prices for the Week Ended September 23
Potash prices in the Corn Belt region of the United States appear to still be reversing their downward movement.
What Analysts Recommend for PotashCorp
As of January 18, 2017, six analysts have recommended either a “strong buy” or a “buy” for PotashCorp (POT) stock, although the majority still recommend a “hold.”
What Analysts Recommend for Intrepid Potash ahead of 3Q16 Earnings
Intrepid Potash (IPI) is nearing $1 per share, which means that only a few analysts are covering the stock.
What 2017 Could Hold for Potash Producers
Potash stocks struggled for most of 2016. In 1H16, potash demand was negatively affected due to delays in potash contract settlements in China and India.
Why Analysts Project Massive Earnings Growth for Mosaic
Earlier in this series, we saw how Mosaic’s (MOS) top line is expected to grow in 2Q17 and how the top-line growth translates into margin growth for the company.
Analyst Estimates for IPI’s Free Cash Flow Growth in Next 4 Quarters
For 4Q16, Wall Street analysts expect Intrepid Potash (IPI) to report flat free cash flow, which would be better than the company’s -$29 million in free cash flow in 4Q15.
Fertilizer Affordability Didn’t Change Last Week
Last week, the Fertilizer Affordability Index remained unchanged at 0.65x week-over-week. Fertilizers are more affordable than during the base year.
Potash Corporation’s Valuation Multiple
Potash Corporation is currently trading at an EV/EBITDA multiple of 7.5x—its lowest point, according to the chart above.
Are Fertilizers Becoming Less Affordable?
Fertilizer affordability affects sales volume for fertilizer companies (NANR) such as Mosaic (MOS), Nutrien (NTR), CF Industries (CF), and Intrepid Potash (IPI).
How Intrepid Potash Is Managing Its Cash Costs
Intrepid Potash’s cash cost per ton for potash products increased slightly to $203 in 4Q15 from $192 in 4Q14, while Trio’s cash cost per ton increased 22% to $203 in 4Q15 from $167 in 4Q14.
Must-know: Mosaic’s forecast shows a possible upside limit in 2015
Despite a recovery in 2014, investors should be warned about the longer-term outlook for the potash business.
Why weak 3rd-quarter potash sales volume will only be temporary
The importance of sales volume Companies’ sales and earnings revisions often have significant impact on share prices. Sometimes companies will announce revisions before earnings calls if they’re significant. When earnings are expected to be worse than initially mentioned, share prices can take a hit. Conversely, when management releases upbeat revisions, share prices often jump. Companies […]
The Phosphate segment of PotashCorp
The phosphate segment generates 11% of PotashCorp’s gross profits. PotashCorp categorized phosphate sales in two segments: fertilizer, and feed and industrial. The company manufactures and sells solid (DAP & MAP) and liquid (MGA and SPA) phosphate fertilizers, as well as phosphate feed and industrial acid, which are sold to the feed and industrial segment. The […]
Corn Inventory Reaches High of 21.3%, Affects Fertilizers
The global corn stock-to-use ratio tells us the inventory level of corn across the globe, offering insight on the near-term future of fertilizer companies.
Intrepid Potash’s Sales Are Expected to Keep Falling
Analysts expect Intrepid Potash’s sales to be $35.6 million in 1Q17. For fiscal 2017, analysts expect the company’s sales to be $148.5 million.
How Agrium’s 4Q15 Earnings Beat Analysts’ Estimates by 10%
Agrium, one of the major agricultural fertilizer retailers, reported 4Q15 earnings per share of $1.52. This beat analysts’ estimates of $1.38, resulting in a 10% positive surprise.
What Agrium Has to Say about the Market in 2016
Agrium’s management expects 12.5 million–13.5 million tons of exports from China in 2016. We believe this should support Agrium’s nitrogen margins.
A Review of Fertilizer Prices Last Week
In this series, we’ll look at key NPK (nitrogen, phosphorous, and potassium) fertilizer prices last week.
Why are economical potash deposits concentrated in 3 locations?
Canada, Russia, and Belarus together account for more than 89% of the world’s estimated reserves and a little over 66% of global capacity.
Why Agrium’s Wholesale Average Realized Prices Have Tanked
Average prices from Agrium’s Wholesale segment have increased YoY, but global prices of crop nutrients like nitrogen, phosphates, and potassium have fallen.
Why CF Industries Has Taken a Beating in 2015
In this series, we will discuss the most recent developments in CF Industries. We’ll discuss how the company was impacted by realized prices and the factors pressuring its shipments.
The Fed taper and Indian rupee could still hurt potash companies
The Indian rupee has been under pressure this year due to two key factors: Ben Bernanke’s announcement of the Fed tapering that started off in June and deteriorating economic growth combined with high inflation.
Fertilizer Affordability Improved for the Week Ending April 21
The Fertilizer Affordability Index remained lower for the week ending April 21. Fertilizers were more affordable than the base year.
Why Mosaic sees a fertilizer industry recovery by the end of 2014
Mosaic currently expects a recovery in potash demand from India and China by the end of 2014.
Analyzing Potash Prices in the Week Ending January 12
In Brazil, potash prices were flat at $281 per metric ton in the week ending January 12.
Why are crop prices so important to potash and phosphate stocks?
Crop price is one of the key drivers of fertilizer demand and prices. Globally, potash and phosphate are used for several types of crops.
Why POT’s large 570-laborer layoff will support the potash industry
POT’s announcement to lay off workers likely reflects its inability to cut further production without more labor cuts.
Why is the fertilizer affordability index an archaic indicator?
Aside from crop prices, relative affordability is often something management mentions in earnings calls, presentations, and investor days.
Potash Prices Were Flat to Positive Last Week
In the Cornbelt region of the US, the potash prices rose by 31 basis points to $289 per metric ton from $288 per metric ton.
Fertilizer Prices for the Week Ending November 2
The week ending November 2 was broadly positive for the agribusiness sector. The VanEck Vectors Agribusiness ETF (MOO) rose ~4.5%.
How Urea Prices Performed Last Week
In the week ending October 26, overall urea prices were broadly negative.
How Fertilizer Stocks and Prices Moved Last Week
Last week, the overall agribusiness sector was broadly negative. The VanEck Vectors Agribusiness ETF (MOO) fell ~4.9%.
Potash Prices Recorded Strong Gains Last Week
Potash prices in Brazil rose the most last week with a rise of 2.3% to $357 per metric ton from $349 per metric ton.
Are DAP Prices Outside the US Reversing?
DAP (diammonium phosphate) prices have been rising lately.
How Higher Energy Costs outside the US Benefited CF Industries
In Europe, the cost of natural gas rose by 53% year-over-year as of June 2018.
How CF Industries Fared in the Second Quarter
CF Industries reported sales growth of 16% year-over-year in the second quarter due to the increase in realized fertilizer prices across its five segments.
Fertilizer Prices Take a Pause: Weekly Update
The fertilizer sector remained under pressure between August 3 and August 13, with the benchmark VanEck Vectors Agribusiness ETF (MOO) declining 2.4%
Nutrien Pops on Second-Quarter Earnings
Nutrien (NTR) reported its second-quarter earnings on August 1 after the market closed.