Intrepid Potash Inc

Like CF Industries’ (CF) sales, its margins are also expected to expand YoY (year-over-year) in Q2 2018 and the next four quarters.

Last week, potash prices continued to show weakness week-over-week. Prices were broadly flat to positive for the week ending April 21.

The significance of potash price Wholesale potash price is one of two factors (the other being sales volume) that influence potash producers’ revenues. When prices rise, so does revenue, which will translate to higher profitability (margins), earnings, and share prices. However, when prices fall, they will have a negative impact on fundamentals and share prices. […]

After a year of declining sales and increasing costs, management seems much more optimistic regarding potash as well as Langbeinite.

Agrium’s (AGU) Retail segment’s shipments declined by 0.03% to 4.84 million tons in 2Q16, down from 4.86 million tons in 2Q15.

As crops widely trade in the international market, they often converge with each other if transportation costs aren’t so high.

Mosaic (MOS) and PotashCorp (POT) were hit the hardest, with their respective shipments declining by 24% each to 1.5 million tons and 1.7 million tons year-over-year.

Potash fertilizers Most of the fertilizer companies we’ve discussed in this series sell all or some of the three NPK (nitrogen, phosphorous, and potassium) macronutrients. To learn more about these macronutrients’ key role in agriculture, read Agricultural Fertilizer Industry: Your Comprehensive Overview. In this part, we’ll look at what 2017 meant for potash producers. Price trends […]

While the Fertilizer Affordability Index was below one, it’s still higher compared to the average levels observed since January 2016.

On September 12, 2016, PotashCorp and Agrium announced their intention to combine in a merger of equals. But China and India have set conditions.

According to the Fertilizer Affordability Index, 2017 has been one of the most affordable years for fertilizers. Mosaic issues the index.

The average weekly price of MOP (muriate of potash) in Vancouver remained unchanged for the week ended May 20, 2016.

For the week ending November 25, fertilizer affordability fell to 0.65x from 0.66x week-over-week.

On average, potash prices for these five producers fell ~33% YoY in 4Q16. Excess supply and weak demand added downward pressure.

When we look at the past five quarters, we see that PotashCorp has missed all its earnings estimates.

Last week, fertilizer affordability rose to 0.66x from 0.65x week-over-week. A ratio below one means that fertilizers are more affordable than during the base year.

The average weekly price of MOP (muriate of potash) at Vancouver has been flat since the beginning of March.

The weekly average price for potash in Vancouver remained flat in the week ended June 24, 2016. Prices are below their 15-year average of $290 per metric ton.

There’s a handful of big players in the agricultural fertilizer industry. Setting up business requires huge capital, which makes for a high barrier to entry.

Potash prices in the Corn Belt region of the United States appear to still be reversing their downward movement.

Intrepid Potash (IPI) is nearing $1 per share, which means that only a few analysts are covering the stock.

Potash stocks struggled for most of 2016. In 1H16, potash demand was negatively affected due to delays in potash contract settlements in China and India.

Last week, the Fertilizer Affordability Index remained unchanged at 0.65x week-over-week. Fertilizers are more affordable than during the base year.

In this series, we’ll look at key NPK (nitrogen, phosphorous, and potassium) fertilizer prices last week.

Canada, Russia, and Belarus together account for more than 89% of the world’s estimated reserves and a little over 66% of global capacity.

In Brazil, potash prices were flat at $281 per metric ton in the week ending January 12.

DAP (diammonium phosphate) prices have been rising lately.

In the week ending January 26, potash prices at the locations discussed below were broadly flat to positive and remained strong compared to levels observed a year ago.

Potash prices remained strong in the week ending January 19.

The potash fertilizer prices for both granular and standard grade were comfortably higher compared to the levels observed last year around the same week.

Earnings per share Earlier, we discussed major agribusiness companies’ earnings, which have mostly fallen over the years. In 2018, their earnings are expected to rise. Next-12-month earnings As shown in the above chart, agribusiness companies’ NTM (next-12-month) EPS (earnings per share) are expected to improve year-over-year. FMC’s (FMC) EPS are expected rise 90% to $4.70, Agrium’s […]

Last week, which ended December 8, 2017, overall potash prices were broadly flat to positive at the four locations we’re covering in this series.

Last week, the granular MOP (muriate of potash) prices in NOLA (New Orleans) in the US (NANR) rose by as much as 45 basis points week-over-week to $203 per metric ton.

PotashCorp owns 28% of Arab Potash and can appoint three of the latter’s 12 board members. It can also reportedly appoint senior management positions.

The potash prices in the Cornbelt region were flat at $231 per metric ton. It was the sixth consecutive week that potash prices were mostly unchanged.

Given the growth in potash shipments and the increase in price realization, it’s natural that the margins of potash producers improved YoY in 2Q17.

PotashCorp (POT) had lackluster earnings growth last year. However, the company reported EPS (earnings per share) growth in 1Q17.

Intrepid Potash’s (IPI) gross margin for its Potash segment swung to positive territory in 1Q17, while its Trio margins were in the negative territory.

Over the past five years, CF Industries’ (CF) gross and EBITDA (earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization) margins have contracted.

According to PotashCorp, the outlook for potash appears positive in 2017. North America, Latin America (especially Brazil), India, and China have been running low on inventory.

Wall Street analysts estimate that Mosaic (MOS) could report gross income of $209 million, which represents a 41% year-over-year fall from $355 million in 4Q15.

Potash’s selling price has been on the decline for the last few quarters and is key to the performances of potash producers (NANR).

Corn prices on September 12 were 1.6% higher at $3.30 per bushel compared to $3.20 per bushel in August 2016.

Fertilizer prices are one of the key drivers for fertilizer stocks. So investors and analysts watch fertilizer prices closely.

In June 2016, the global soybean stock-to-use ratio stood at 20.2%, which was at its lowest point compared to the past four years.

To date, the median valuation of fertilizer stocks is around 7.9x. That’s at the midpoint of the nine-year average of 8.2x.

Investors in the fertilizer industry (XLB) must actively track the relationship between crop prices and fertilizer prices. This, in turn, impacts agricultural chemical companies.

Mosaic’s Potash segment generated $2.5 billion in net sales, excluding intersegment sales, in 2015. This accounted for 28% of the company’s total net sales.

Fertilizer prices and input costs affect all players in the industry. Survival and profitability come down to where a company stands on the cost curve.

Uralkali’s move towards a volume-over-price strategy in order to gain market share (more like taking back market share) was the more important story.