Invesco DB Commodity Index Tracking Fund
How China Is Shifting Gears from Manufacturing to Services
The Chinese economy’s focus is shifting gears from manufacturing and industrial production to the service sector.
What Are Analyst Recommendations for Apache?
Wall Street analysts gave mixed recommendations after Apache’s quarterly results. Apache shares fell 5% on November 6, 2015, after the earnings release.
Why Alcoa Investors Need to Watch Raw Materials Prices in 2017
Integrated producers such as Alcoa stand to gain from rising alumina prices. Alcoa also sells bauxite and alumina along with primary aluminum.
Why It’s No Surprise that Alcoa Cut Aluminum Demand Guidance
Alcoa has revised down its 2016 global aluminum demand growth projection to 5%.
Could Alcoa’s Split Create Shareholder Value?
As an Alcoa (AA) shareholder, you might like to know whether the split will create value. The value, in this case, would basically mean whether the two separate companies would be worth more than the combined entity.
Analysts on Iron Ore: How Much More Downside?
Analysts have been expecting a downturn in iron ore. Analysts upgraded their short-to-medium-term forecasts, but they’re still not positive about long-term fundamentals.
Where Will Commodities Head during Trump’s Term?
Donald Trump’s policies are aimed at strengthening job markets in the United States (VFINX) (IVV).
Can China’s Steel Prices Sustain the Highs of 2016?
Among the most dominant factors driving the recent iron ore price rally are higher steel production and the rise in steel prices in China.
Things you need to do today before inflation takes off
So what should investors be doing today? While inflation may take another year or more to get going, it’s not too early to start implementing long-term inflation hedges.
Brazilian Real Drops as Political Risk Returns
Among the Latin-America–focused ETFs, the iShares MSCI Brazil Capped ETF (EWZ) fell 2.5% on May 23, which was in sync with the fall in the real.
Richard Bernstein: Global Economic Conditions Are Improving
According to Richard Bernstein, global economic conditions are improving.
The Energy Sector Remained the Largest Gainer in 2016
The energy sector remained the largest gainer in 2016. The Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLE) had risen nearly 24.8% in 2016 as of December 29, 2016.
Freeport-McMoRan Sees More Room to Cut Costs
Freeport-McMoRan expects its copper unit cash costs after by-product credits to be $1.10 per pound in 2016, a year-over-year reduction of more than 28%.
The Pressure on Cyclical Commodities Is Likely to Continue
Commodity (DBC) prices have been heading lower since 2011, and commodities have been the worst-performing asset class of 2015.
AES Lowers Guidance amid Strong Dollar, Brazil’s Woes
AES’s (AES) management has lowered its adjusted earnings guidance by $0.10, from $1.05 per share to $0.95 per share for 2016.
China’s Steel Prices Might Have Started Giving Up: More Downside?
One of the most dominant factors driving iron ore’s price rally is rising steel production and the resulting increase in steel prices in China (FXI).
Could the OPEC Meeting Have an Impact on Alcoa?
It could be déjà vu for Alcoa (AA) investors after the OPEC meeting on December 4, 2015. Last year’s decision to maintain daily crude output had a negative impact on all commodities.
What Caused the U-Turn in Oil Prices?
On February 15, 2018, US crude oil’s April 2018 futures rose 1.1% and settled at $61.17 per barrel. On the same day, the US dollar fell 0.6%.
Why the Aluminum Supply Deficit Is Not Causing Premiums to Strengthen
US Midwest aluminum premiums are currently quoted at $0.07 per pound. Premiums have fallen slightly in July and are now down more than 22% year-to-date.
Can Higher Chinese Aluminum Exports Spoil Alcoa’s Party?
China exported 350,000 metric tons of unwrought aluminum in October. Chinese aluminum exports fell ~1.8% YoY in the first ten months of 2016.
Cliffs’ US Realized Prices Have Ample Upside in 2017. Here’s Why
Cliffs Natural Resources’ average realized prices were 0.5% lower YoY in 4Q16 at $73.8 per ton.
Finding Investment Avenues in Emerging Markets
In the current situation, when the question arises about investment in emerging markets (EEM) (EDC), investors tend to think about the Chinese economy.
Analyzing the Weakness in Crude Oil
On March 8, 2018, US crude oil April 2018 futures declined 1.7% and closed at $60.12 per barrel.
Leon Cooperman: The Market Is Fairly but Fully Valued
Leon Cooperman indicated that at current multiples, the market is fairly but fully valued. The S&P 500 index’s (SPY) current PE multiple is at 20.45x.
Why the Fed Decided to Postpone Liftoff
Forget the September versus December debate. The Fed may already be behind the curve, according to Rick Rieder.
Inside BHP Billiton’s Iron Ore Price Concerns
Iron ore prices were very strong in 2016 and have remained so year-to-date. Prices increased by more than 80% in 2016.
The Benefits of Real Asset Investing
In essence one of the things we have accomplished with these three products is to reduce the volatility inherent in all markets, and in particular very volatile markets like the real asset sectors.
Freeport-McMoRan Looks to Control Costs amid Copper Price Slump
Copper companies have been working to reduce their unit production costs to survive the current slump in copper prices.
Turquoise Hill Resources Receives Huge Boost to Its Stock Price
According to consensus estimates compiled by Bloomberg, Turquoise Hill Resources (TRQ) (RIO) has a one-year price target of $3.78. This represents a 29.5% upside over its October 13 closing price.
Watch for the Effect of Commodity Prices on Alcoa, Arconic
Alcoa (AA) is gearing up for its split, which is scheduled in the second half of 2016. After the split, the value-added company—which will be named Arconic—will produce precision components and other value-added products.
Is the Pullback in Iron Ore Miners Based on Technical Indicators?
Among the stocks under review in this series, Vale SA (VALE) has given the highest trailing-three-month return of 36.4%, while Rio Tinto (RIO) has generated the lowest return of 15.4%.
Why Rio Tinto Believes Iron Ore Prices Can Sustain
According to Bloomberg, Rio Tinto CFO Chris Lynch has suggested that iron ore prices will not collapse, as many expect.
How Analysts View Freeport after Its 3Q17 Earnings Beat
Freeport-McMoRan released its 3Q17 earnings on October 25, posting revenues of ~$4.3 billion in 3Q17, compared with ~$3.7 billion in 2Q17.
Latin American Markets Trade Positively: How Did It Impact ETFs?
Critical Latin American indexes were trading on a positive note on February 29, 2016.
Why September Popped for Freeport-McMoRan’s Investors
On September 12, Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) announced the sale of its Deepwater Gulf of Mexico energy assets to Anadarko Petroleum (APC) for a cash consideration of $2 billion.
Inside Copper’s 2017 Demand-Supply Dynamics
Copper’s 2017 demand-supply dynamics As noted previously, copper prices have shown strength recently, piggybacking the weak US dollar. However, we should remember that in the medium-to-long term, demand-supply dynamics are a key driver of copper prices (TECK) (GLNCY). In this article, we’ll see how copper’s demand-supply balance looks in 2017. Demand China’s car sales regained momentum […]
Why the Service Sector’s Contribution to Brazil Is Important
The service sector is the main contributor to Brazil’s GDP and job creation, but it’s currently suffering from structural weakness and poor international performance.
3 Key Takeaways from U.S. Steel’s 4Q16 Earnings Call
U.S. Steel produces steel in blast furnaces and uses coking coal, steel scrap, and iron ore as a raw material.
Falling Steel Prices Overshadow U.S. Steel’s Bullish Drivers
The rally in steel prices, which was driven mainly by trade cases, is fading. Spot HRC prices have fallen more than $160 per ton from their June peak.
Understanding the Long-Term Impact of a Trump Presidency on Steel
In our view, the kind of trade protectionism Trump has expressed support of would only provide a short-term breather for the industry.
What Iron Ore Analysts See on the Horizon
According to Bloomberg’s median, iron ore prices will drop every quarter in 2017 to an average of $55 per ton in 4Q17.
Why the Fed’s Rate Hike Could Impact Aluminum Prices
The unwinding of aluminum financing deals could have a negative impact on aluminum prices. Earnings of aluminum producers such as Alcoa (AA) are sensitive to aluminum prices.
Will Higher Commodity Prices Boost Alcoa’s 2Q16 Earnings?
In its Primary Metals segment, Alcoa expects the ATOI to increase by $10 million in 2Q16.
Do Technical Indicators Point to a Pullback in Cliffs’ Share Price?
Traders and investors also look at technical aspects when making market entry or exit decisions.
If OPEC Fails to Cut Output, Will Freeport Be Affected?
OPEC’s (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) annual meeting is scheduled for November 30, 2016, in Vienna, Austria.
What are the Rate Expectations for Dry Bulk in 2016?
Though increased scrapping and minimal ordering activity could provide some relief on the supply side, the outlook for 2016 isn’t looking good for dry bulk.
This Is Boosting Steel Prices in China
In December 2016, steel prices in China hit 3,557 Chinese yuan per ton—the highest level in two and a half years.
What Challenges Could Alcoa’s Post-Split Upstream Business Face?
After the split, the new Alcoa (AA) will house the business units that are currently under the Primary Metals and Alumina segments. We’ll look at the challenges that Alcoa could face once it is listed as a separate company.
China’s Steel Prices Regain Their Strength, Pushing Iron Ore Prices Higher
One of the most dominant factors driving the recent iron ore price rally is rising steel production and the rise in steel prices in China.
Is the Timing Correct for Alcoa’s Split?
Previously in this series, we’ve seen the key concerns of Alcoa’s (AA) split into two companies. The question around the split is not “why split?” but rather “why now?”
Why Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities May Offer Some Value
TIPS may offer some value as inflation breakeven seems modest. TIPS provide investors a hedge against inflation just like gold (GLD) and other commodities (DBC).
Brazilian Markets Get Ready for Impeachment Vote
The Brazilian BM&F Bovespa SA and the Mexican IPC index fell 0.07% and 0.26%, respectively.
Wheat Prices Traded above the 20-Day Moving Average
March wheat futures contract prices were near the critical support of $4.75 per bushel for the second consecutive day on February 2, 2016.
Could Latin American Markets Extend Gains as Commodities Rallied?
Critical Latin American indexes were trading on a positive note March 1. The Brazilian index, the BM&F BOVESPA, rose 2.0%.
How Geopolitical Factors Could Impact Stock Markets
The S&P 500 Index plunged 4.6% during the first four trading days of February, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the NASDAQ Composite Index dipped 4.7% and 4.0%, respectively.
Reduction in French Wheat Planting Area Supports US Wheat Prices
On February 10, 2016, wheat futures prices rose due to a reduction in the French wheat planting area, which suggested lower export competition.
A Trader’s Guide to the Commodities Market
Learn the basics of commodities trading, including the most traded commodities worldwide, and what it takes to be a successful trader in this class.
Should Doctor Copper Be Thanking Xi-Trump Bonhomie?
While commodities generally follow the underlying supply-demand dynamics in the long term, according to some observers, copper prices also tend to reflect macro developments.
Why are crop prices so important to potash and phosphate stocks?
Crop price is one of the key drivers of fertilizer demand and prices. Globally, potash and phosphate are used for several types of crops.
Could Cost-Push Inflation Dent Copper Miners’ Outlooks?
In this article, we’ll look at copper miners’ unit production costs.
RAAX ETF: Capturing Real Benefits of Real Assets
RAAX’s allocation process provides exposure to segments with better returns profiles while managing overall portfolio risk.
Current Economic Tailwinds Are Powering Real Assets
The shifting of the global policy stance from monetary stimulus to fiscal stimulus could benefit real assets.
Shifting Economic Winds Could Be Good for Real Assets
Solid economic growth, supply bottlenecks, and rising commodity prices have pushed up inflation in the United States.
Real Asset Companies Are on the Cusp of an Earnings Revival
Despite rising concerns about a trade war, the IMF maintained its growth forecasts for the global economy for 2018.
Why Emerging Market Stocks and Bonds Appear Attractive
But let’s think about maybe more actionable items in terms of growth, because it’s clear that at least there are now some signs on growth inflection, maybe not globally, but at least in some parts of the world.
Copper Markets: Possible Surplus in 2018
In the first five months of 2018, China’s unwrought copper imports have risen 16.8%—compared to the same period in 2017.
10-Year Treasury Yield: Is the US Economy Overheating?
Rising inflation, higher backlog orders since 2004, and rising transportation costs are signaling that the US economy is overheating.
RAAX ETF Aims to Generate Long-term Total Returns
Now that we understand why the macro environment is supportive, why don’t you tell us a little bit about the investment process?
How Escalating Trade Tensions Have Impacted Commodities
Falling commodity prices have led to a selling spree in copper miners like Freeport-McMoRan (FCX), BHP Billiton (BHP), and Rio Tinto (RIO).
Is Now the Right Time to Invest in Commodities?
There are expected, and possibly more aggressive, interest rate hikes over the next several years, and potential commodity supply constraints resulting from years of capital expenditure reductions in the metals and oil industries.
Why Synchronous Growth Is Driving Global Demand
Economic/business cycles are never exactly the same, and the current cycle is no exception. But we are most likely entering the late stages of this expansion.
Why Commodities Outperform during Rate Hike Cycles
Commodities and interest rates both tend to rise late in the economic/business cycle. As a normal cycle develops, the economy expands and gains momentum.
What’s Driving the Rally in Commodities?
The US Federal Reserve recently raised the benchmark lending rate by 25 basis points—the sixth hike since December 2015.
How Analysts View Copper Miners amid the Market Carnage
The repercussions of the equity market carnage are evident in commodity markets. Copper, which some analysts see as an indicator of the global economy’s health, has come off its 2018 highs.
Why Volatility Fell 16% in Week 1 of 2018
Every segment of the global financial markets began 2018 on a positive note. The global equity rally extended in the first week of the year.
How the Secondary Market Could Impact Copper Prices in 2018
Copper, like other metals, is widely recycled. Last year, we saw improved scrap flows as copper prices moved to higher price levels.
Aluminum Supply: What Investors Should Watch in 2018
After its split, Alcoa (AA) became a pure-play aluminum producer (S32) (CENX). Like other aluminum producers, Alcoa’s fortunes are tied to metal prices.
Copper Bulls Took a Back Seat in November
Copper bulls had a nice run since July. Copper underperformed several industrial metals in 1H17. However, copper has been on an uptrend in 2H17.
Copper Tests $7,000 as Industrial Metals Rebound
Last week was broadly positive for industrial metals (DBC). Copper rose 3.6%, while aluminum prices rose 1.3% in the week ending November 24.
Metal Prices Fell on Demand Concerns Last Week
In this series, we’ll look at the key developments that impacted mining companies last week. We’ll also look at some of the company-specific developments that impacted mining stocks.
Can Cleveland-Cliffs’ Realized Prices in the US Recover in 2018?
For 3Q17, Cleveland-Cliffs reported average realized prices came in at $90.50 per ton.
Russia’s Manufacturing PMI Improved Marginally in September
The final Russia Manufacturing PMI (Purchasing Managers’ Index) rose marginally in September 2017. It was 51.9 in September compared to 51.6 in August.
How Emerging Economies Are Supporting Global Growth
According to the report provided by the World Bank in June 2017, global (ACWI) growth is expected to strengthen to 2.7% in 2017.
Are Hedge Funds Still Betting on Brazil after Bumpy Growth?
The Brazilian economy (EWZ) (BRZU) has faced a series of problems such as lower economic growth, higher inflation, political uncertainty, and higher unemployment.
Aluminum’s Outlook: What Investors Can Expect
Aluminum prices have been strong in 2017 and have built on last year’s gains. The entire industrial metals space has come a long way since 1Q16.
What Could Drive BHP Billiton’s Copper Costs in Fiscal 2018?
BHP Billiton’s (BHP) copper production fell 16.0% in fiscal 2017 to 1.3 million tons.
Aluminum Prices Defy Gravity and Maintain the $2,000 Level
Aluminum prices have gained more than 22% so far in 2017. This trend was preceded by a 13.6% rise in 2016.
Freeport and Copper: Is a Correction in the Cards?
Copper prices have shown strength over the last few trading sessions, which has helped the upwards price action of miners including Freeport-McMoRan (FCX), Glencore (GLNCY), and Southern Copper (SCCO).
Is China Cutting Aluminum Capacity? Analyzing Producers’ Views
As we noted previously, aluminum prices have been strong this year. Strength has been driven by positive supply and demand dynamics.
What’s Vale’s Base Metals Outlook?
As we saw in the previous two parts of this series, Vale’s (VALE) iron ore and coal production increased sequentially in 2Q17.
Will China’s Disappointing July Trade Deflate Metal Bulls?
On August 8, China released its trade data for July. The country’s exports in dollar terms rose 7.2% compared to July 2016 while imports rose 11%.
It’s Raining Cash for Miners amid Resurgent Commodity Prices
Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) generated free cash flows of $675.0 million in 2Q17, which took its 1H17 free cash flows to $1.1 billion.
Why Cliffs’ Downgraded Its Earnings Guidance Yet Again
As we discussed in the previous part of this series, realized prices along with volumes drive a company’s revenues.
Political Instability and Commodity Prices Weigh on Brazilian Real in 2017
Brazil’s economy has found itself immersed in political scandals and corruption that have been affecting growth for the past few years.
What Happened to Brazil’s Trade Surplus in June
Brazil’s (EWZ) trade balance since the beginning of 2017 indicates continuous expansion, with exports rising more than imports.
What to Expect from Declining Inflationary Trend in Colombia
The annual consumer inflation in Colombia is on a declining trend over the last year as of June. Consumer prices rose at a slower pace of ~4.0%.
What Improved Global Demand Means for Exports in Malaysia
The Malaysian economy reported improved growth in 1Q17, largely supported by the rise in exports.
Can Improved Demand Help Malaysia’s Economy Expand in 2Q17?
The Malaysian economy gave us an impressive growth story in 1Q17, with its increased investments in infrastructure and private sector expansion.
Why Colombian Exports Could Improve in 2017
After a disappointing 1Q17 GDP figure in Colombia, economic activity was expected to gradually gain strength in 2017.
Will Monetary Easing Support Colombia’s Economic Growth in 2017?
Colombia, an important Latin American (ILF) economy, is currently facing sluggish growth due to a decline in commodity prices (DBC) and political instability.