What Are Analysts’ Natural Gas Price Forecasts This Winter?
US natural gas inventories are 4.9% above their five-year average. However, the surplus is shrinking.
Pointlogic reported that US natural gas consumption rose 4.7% between October 20 and October 26, 2016.
On October 21, 2016, the CFTC reported that open interest in US natural gas futures and options contracts rose for the fourth time in the last five weeks in the week ended October 18, 2016.
Market intelligence company Pointlogic reported that US natural gas supplies rose 2.5% to 77.5 Bcf (billion cubic feet) per day between October 20 and October 26, 2016.
On October 21, 2016, Baker Hughes (BHI) reported that the US natural gas rig count rose by three to 108 rigs between October 14 and October 21, 2016.
The EIA (U.S. Energy Information Administration) released its weekly natural gas inventory report on October 27, 2016.
The EIA estimates that US natural gas inventories will be ~4.0 trillion cubic feet by the end of October 2016, which is the start of the 2016–2017 heating season.
Natural gas futures for December delivery rose 0.1% and were trading at $3.1 per MMBtu (million British thermal units) in electronic trading at 5:00 AM EST on October 28, 2016.
November natural gas futures contracts rose 1.2% and closed at $2.76 per MMBtu (million British thermal units) on October 27, 2016.
According to Wall Street analysts, Xcel Energy (XEL) has an expected upside of nearly 7% for the coming year. It has a price target of $43.13.
As of October 27, 2016, Xcel Energy (XEL) was trading at an EV-to-EBITDA multiple of 9.8x. Xcel Energy’s average five-year EV-to-EBITDA multiple is at 10x.
Xcel Energy (XEL) reported its third quarter earnings on October 27, 2016. It posted earnings of $0.90 per share in the reported quarter.
US GDP recorded the biggest gain in 3Q16 since 2014—it rose 2.9% in 3Q16. It’s better than the market’s expectation of 2.5% growth.
As of October 27, 2016, CVR Energy (CVI) had the highest short interest-to-equity float ratio among our list of integrated energy and refiner stocks.
ExxonMobil has the lowest implied volatility figure among the integrated energy companies and refiners we’re reviewing in this series as of October 27.
As of October 27, 2016, Calumet Specialty Products Partners (CLMT) had the highest implied volatility among integrated energy and refining companies.
At 6:55 AM EST on October 28, the WTI crude oil futures contract for December delivery was trading at $49.47 per barrel—a fall of ~0.48%.
In this part, we’ll look at the correlations of top energy ETFs with crude oil (SCO) (DWTI) and natural gas (BOIL) (GASL).
On October 28, 2016, at 1:42 AM EST, US crude oil (UWTI) (OIIL) was trading at $49.71 per barrel—a 2.2% fall compared to its closing price on October 21.
For exposure to the energy sector, you might want to look at energy ETFs that invest in oil and gas stocks. They could be an alternative to USO and UNG.