Correlation of Foreign Integrated Energy Stocks with WTI in May 2017
The correlation coefficient of TOT versus WTI stood at 0.11, lower than the one-year average of 0.54.
Total (TOT), Suncor Energy (SU), and ENI (E) are trading higher than their historical EV-to-EBITDA levels. However, Petrobras (PBR) is trading below its historical average.
TOT has the highest number of “hold” ratings among the four stocks discussed here. For TOT, 83% of analysts gave “hold” ratings.
Petrobras’s (PBR) 90-day daily beta stood at 2.3. This was the largest compared to peers Total (TOT), ENI (E), and Suncor Energy (SU).
Petrobras (PBR) saw a 9.5% rise in its implied volatility from April 3, 2017, to 48.1% on May 24, 2017.
SU’s institutional holdings stand at ~72%, higher than peers TOT, E, and PBR. In contrast, ENI has the lowest holding standing at ~2%.
While short interest in TOT and PBR rose, SU’s short interest fell in 2Q17. Short interest in ENI remained flat in the quarter.
SU trades at a 21.1x forward price-to-earnings multiple and a 7.4x forward EV-to-EBITDA multiple, higher than the peer average.
Total (TOT), Suncor Energy (SU), ENI (E), and Petrobras (PBR) have provided steady returns to their shareholders in the form of dividends.
In 1Q17, integrated energy stocks fell due to falling oil prices. Foreign integrated energy stocks Total (TOT), Suncor Energy (SU), ENI (E), and Petrobras (PBR) fell, breaking below their 50-day moving averages.
Since April 3, 2017, Total (TOT) stock has risen 6%, beating its peers Suncor Energy (SU), ENI (E), and Petrobras (PBR). Integrated energy stocks typically show high positive correlation to crude oil prices.
According to data compiled by Thomas Reuters, Seadrill (SDRL) has a consensus rating of 3.5, which means a “hold.”
Seadrill (SDRL) has a total interest-bearing debt of $9.3 billion. Of this total, $3.3 billion is short-term debt, and the remaining $5.9 billion is long-term debt.
In 1Q17, Seadrill’s (SDRL) EBITDA fell to $291 million, as compared to $354 million in 4Q16 and $528 million in 1Q16.
From 4Q16 and 1Q17, Seadrill’s (SDRL) vessel operating expenses fell $23 million to $211 million—a 10% fall.
On May 24, 2017, Seadrill (SDRL) had a backlog of $3.4 billion, which is higher than its backlog of $2.5 billion on February 28.
In 1Q17, almost 65% of Seadrill’s (SDRL) total revenues came from its floater segment, whose 1Q17 revenue was $89 million lower than in 4Q16.
Until an increased consistency can be seen in an upward trend of oil prices, many oil companies will likely remain focused on conserving cash.
In 1Q17, Seadrill’s (SDRL) revenue was $569 million—nearly 14.6% lower than its revenue of $667 million in 4Q16.
In the pre-market session on May 24, Seadrill’s share price rose 15%. But after the conference call the same day, investor enthusiasm flagged.