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    Macroeconomic Analysis

    Why Did the US Federal Reserve Turn Hawkish at Its June Meeting?

    As expected, the Federal Reserve increased the interest rate by 25 basis points after its June meeting, which concluded on June 13.

    By Ricky Cove
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    Macroeconomic Analysis

    Why May’s Inflation Was Just Hot Enough

    On June 12, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that US consumer prices rose 0.2% in May, adding to the 0.2% increase seen in April.

    By Ricky Cove
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    Macroeconomic Analysis

    FOMC: We Are Not Declaring a Victory on Inflation

    The FOMC’s June statement was released on June 13, and the outlook for inflation remained upbeat.

    By Ricky Cove
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    Macroeconomic Analysis

    How Could High Inflation Affect the Fed?

    During the Fed’s May meeting, the inflation (TIP) target was described as “symmetric,” suggesting that the 2% target would not be used to initiate any dramatic changes to US monetary policy.

    By Ricky Cove
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    Macroeconomic Analysis

    Bond Yields Fall after April Inflation Data Release

    US bond market investors were relieved after the US Bureau of Labor Statistics’ April report, published May 10, indicated a lower-than-expected inflation growth rate.

    By Ricky Cove
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    Macroeconomic Analysis

    How April’s Inflation Data Relieved Markets

    On May 10, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that US consumer prices rose 0.2% in April.

    By Ricky Cove
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    Macroeconomic Analysis

    Is the US Economy on Track to Meet the 2018 GDP Projections?

    In its most recent SEP release, the Fed upgraded its GDP growth outlook for 2018 by 0.2% to 2.7%, compared to the 2.5% growth outlook in December 2017.

    By Ricky Cove
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    Macroeconomic Analysis

    Could there be a 4th Rate Hike in the Cards?

    The Bureau of Economic Analysis defines PCE (personal consumption expenditure) as the value of goods and services purchased by, or on behalf of, US residents.

    By Ricky Cove
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    Macroeconomic Analysis

    US Job Openings Still Near Highs

    The BLS released the “Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey” for February on April 13.

    By Ricky Cove
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    Macroeconomic Analysis

    Why March’s Inflation Numbers Could Pressure the Fed

    The US Bureau of Labor Statistics has reported that US consumer prices fell 0.1% in March.

    By Ricky Cove
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    Macroeconomic Analysis

    FOMC on the Economic Situation: A Strong US Economy

    In the March meeting minutes, the FOMC staff review of the economy was stronger than the review presented at the January meeting.

    By Ricky Cove
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    Macroeconomic Analysis

    Why the Fed Expects Unemployment to Fall to 3.6%

    Over the last 12 months, unemployment levels have fallen to a 17-year low of 4.1%.

    By Ricky Cove
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    Macroeconomic Analysis

    What’s the Fed’s View on Inflation Growth?

    The FOMC’s March statement was released on Wednesday, March 21, and the outlook for the closely watched inflation remained muted.

    By Ricky Cove
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    Macroeconomic Analysis

    Why Did the Fed Upgrade Its GDP Forecast for 2018?

    In the latest SEP release, the Fed upgraded its GDP growth outlook for 2018 by 0.2% to 2.7%.

    By Ricky Cove
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    Macroeconomic Analysis

    A Strengthening US Economy and a Cautious Fed

    In the first policy meeting under new Fed chair Jerome Powell, the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) increased the interest rate 0.25%.

    By Ricky Cove
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    Macroeconomic Analysis

    Why Odds of 4th Rate Hike Fell after February Inflation Report

    The US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that US consumer prices increased marginally in February.

    By Ricky Cove
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    Macroeconomic Analysis

    Why Did the Consumer Price Index Rise in December?

    According to the December CPI report released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics on January 12, consumer prices in December increased 0.1%.

    By Ricky Cove
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    Macroeconomic Analysis

    The Curious Case of Low Inflation in 2017

    The last statement from the US Fed, which was released with its recent rate hike decision, cited lower levels of inflation but hopes that the inflation target could be achieved in 2018.

    By Ricky Cove
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    Macroeconomic Analysis

    Will US Unemployment Rate Fall below 4% in 2017?

    A lower unemployment rate is one of the key objectives of the Fed. In 2017, the unemployment rate fell, reaching 4.1% in its latest November reading.

    By Ricky Cove
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    Macroeconomic Analysis

    The Primary Cause of Yield Curve Flattening

    Interest rates and inflation The pace of interest rate hikes and inflation rate growth have a profound influence on the US yield curve. The US Fed has been communicating its intent to increase interest rates from the current ultra-low level to a target rate of 2.5% over the next few years. The conditions required for […]

    By Ricky Cove
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    Macroeconomic Analysis

    The FOMC’s Outlook for the US Economy

    As per economic projections prepared by the FOMC, US real GDP is expected to improve in the final quarter of this year.

    By Ricky Cove
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    Macroeconomic Analysis

    Chart in Focus: The Consumer Price Index Rose in October

    The Fed is expected to increase the target funds rate by 0.25% at its December meeting.

    By Ricky Cove
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    Macroeconomic Analysis

    Why a December Rate Hike Shouldn’t Be Taken for Granted

    Not all members of the FOMC, according to the minutes of the meeting, were on the same page with respect to a December interest rate hike.

    By Ricky Cove
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    Macroeconomic Analysis

    Why FOMC’s Raphael Bostic Is Not Happy with Low Inflation Explanations

    Bostic dealt with various reasons that have been cited as reasons for the lower level of inflation—even questioning the common ones.

    By Ricky Cove
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    Macroeconomic Analysis

    Why FOMC’s John Williams Sees No Impact of Balance Sheet Unwinding on Markets

    In the long run, Williams said it would be difficult to predict how markets would react to the Fed’s balance sheet unwinding program.

    By Ricky Cove
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    Macroeconomic Analysis

    FOMC’s James Bullard Has Three Questions for US Monetary Policy

    Bullard said that the current growth rate in the US economy is likely to remain consistent with recent quarterly growth—near the 2% mark.

    By Ricky Cove
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    Macroeconomic Analysis

    Do Markets Agree with Janet Yellen on Low Inflation?

    In her post-meeting press conference, US Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen seemed less worried than expected about the current state of US inflation.

    By Ricky Cove
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    Macroeconomic Analysis

    Is the Uptick in August Inflation Enough for a Fed Hike in December?

    Slow US inflation growth has been a concern for the US Fed and was one of the key reasons that the Fed raised interest rates only twice in 2017.

    By Ricky Cove
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    Macroeconomic Analysis

    Will the Sudden Rise in Inflation Change the US Fed’s Outlook?

    The consumer price inflation (CPI) data reported on Thursday indicated an increase of 0.4% in August. The year-over-year rate improved from 1.7% to 1.9% for August.

    By Ricky Cove
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    Macroeconomic Analysis

    Here’s Why the US Inflation Rate Is Troubling the Fed

    In its latest monetary policy statement, the Fed admitted it would take longer than expected for inflation to reach its 2.0% target.

    By Ricky Cove
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    Macroeconomic Analysis

    Will the Fed Repeat Its Taper Tantrum Mistakes?

    In this cycle of expansion after the great recession, the Fed has started the process of monetary tightening.

    By Ricky Cove
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    Macroeconomic Analysis

    Why Inflation Remains a Huge Concern for FOMC Members

    Members of the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) attributed the recent slowdown in inflation growth to idiosyncratic factors.

    By Ricky Cove
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    Macroeconomic Analysis

    Why Fed’s Yellen Feels Gradual Rate Hikes Are Warranted

    The tone of Yellen’s responses before the committee confirmed that the Fed is set to stay its course on monetary tightening, leading to policy normalization.

    By Ricky Cove
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    Macroeconomic Analysis

    Why Minneapolis’s Fed President Voted Against a Rate Hike

    In an essay published by Minneapolis’s Federal Reserve president, Neel Kashkari, after he voted against a rate hike in the Federal Open Market Committee’s (or FOMC) June 2017 meeting, he explained why he dissented.

    By Ricky Cove
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    Macroeconomic Analysis

    Why Philadelphia’s Fed President Supports Another Rate Hike

    In a recent interview with The Financial Times, the hawkish president of the Philadelphia Federal Reserve said that the Fed’s balance sheet’s unwinding could begin in September 2017.

    By Ricky Cove
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    Macroeconomic Analysis

    Why Chicago’s Evans Sees Moderate Risks to Financial Stability

    Chicago’s Federal Reserve president, Charles L. Evans, recently spoke at a Money Marketeers of New York University event about monetary policy challenges in a new inflation environment.

    By Ricky Cove
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    Macroeconomic Analysis

    St. Louis’s Bullard Thinks Rebalancing Will Take 5 Years

    At the Illinois Bankers Association’s annual conference in Nashville, organized on June 23, 2017, St. Louis’s Federal Reserve president, James Bullard, sounded dovish about the US economy.

    By Ricky Cove
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    Macroeconomic Analysis

    Why Cleveland’s Fed President Worries about Another Recession

    Loretta J. Mester, the president and CEO of the Cleveland Federal Reserve, spoke at the 2017 Policy Summit on Housing, Human Capital, and Inequality held on June 23, 2017.

    By Ricky Cove
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    Macroeconomic Analysis

    Is a Flattening Yield Curve a Sign of an Impending Recession?

    Yields in the shorter timeframe such as the two-year yield (SHY) and T-notes (SCHO) are rising more than the ten-year or the 30-year (TLT) yields.

    By Ricky Cove
  • uploads///tips
    Miscellaneous

    Will Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities Be a Game-Changer?

    According to Bloomberg, Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (or TIPS) have generated a year-to-date return of 6.3% compared to 4.7% by the broad Treasury market.

    By Matt Tucker, CFA
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