Schwab Short-Term US Treasury ETF™

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    Macroeconomic Analysis

    Is the Fed Sure What It’s Doing?

    In this series, we’ll analyze Fed members’ comments in June 2017 to better understand their outlooks on the US economy and how they justify their hawkish or dovish stances.

    By Ricky Cove
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    Macroeconomic Analysis

    What to Make of the Rebound of the Credit Index in May

    The Leading Credit Index expanded for the first time in four months in May with a reading of -0.86.

    By Ricky Cove
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    Macroeconomic Analysis

    Should We Worry about the Contracting Credit Index?

    The Conference Board uses credit conditions in the economy as one of the components of the leading economic index (or LEI) economic model.

    By Ricky Cove
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    Macroeconomic Analysis

    What to Make of a Contracting Leading Credit Index

    In March, the Leading Credit Index recorded a reading of -0.46, declining, compared to the February reading of -0.79.

    By Ricky Cove
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    Macroeconomic Analysis

    Leading Credit Index Contracted for the First Time in 7 Months

    The Leading Credit Index for February was reported at ~-1.2, declining from the January reading of ~-1.7.

    By Ricky Cove
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    Macroeconomic Analysis

    What the Lending Credit Index in January Tells Us Now

    The Conference Board uses credit conditions in the economy as one of the key constituents in its LEI (Leading Economic Index).

    By Ricky Cove
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    Macroeconomic Analysis

    Is the Leading Credit Index Signaling Any Business Cycle Changes?

    This constituent of the LEI is an economic model, constructed by modeling changes in six financial market instruments.

    By Ricky Cove
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    Macroeconomic Analysis

    What Could Happen if the US Debt Ceiling Isn’t Raised

    The failure of US Congress to raise the debt ceiling would result in a partial government shutdown. The US Treasury wouldn’t be able to issue any government debt, and it could end up borrowing from its retirement savings fund.

    By Ricky Cove
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    Macroeconomic Analysis

    The US Bond Market and the Big Scare from China

    On January 10, 2018, Bloomberg News broke a story that the Chinese government could be planning to slow down its purchases of US government debt (GOVT).

    By Ricky Cove
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    Macroeconomic Analysis

    How the Leading Credit Index Tracks US Credit Conditions

    Understanding the Leading Credit Index The Conference Board LCI (Leading Credit Index), a constituent in the LEI (Leading Economic Index), is published every month and tracks credit conditions in the US economy by following changes in six financial market instruments: the two-year swap (SHY) spread (real time) the three-month LIBOR[1.Intercontinental Exchange London Interbank Offered Rate] (SCHO) […]

    By Ricky Cove
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    Macroeconomic Analysis

    The Leading Credit Index: October Update

    The Leading Credit Index for October was reported to be -0.70, improving from the revised September reading of -0.64.

    By Ricky Cove
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    Macroeconomic Analysis

    Understanding the Leading Credit Index for September 2017

    The Leading Credit Index is an economic model that’s modeled on the performance of six major financial market instruments.

    By Ricky Cove
  • Understanding the Leading Credit Index
    Macroeconomic Analysis

    Understanding the Leading Credit Index

    Understanding the Leading Credit Index The Conference Board LCI (Leading Credit Index), a constituent of the LEI (Leading Economic Index), is constructed based on the performance of six financial market instruments. These components track lending conditions in the US economy. Performance of the LCI Improving credit conditions are considered positive for the economy. When the LCI […]

    By Ricky Cove
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    Macroeconomic Analysis

    What Financial Markets Predict for the US Economy

    Understanding the Leading Credit Index The Conference Board Leading Credit Index (or LCI), which tracks lending conditions in the economy, is reported monthly. The index has six constituents: 2-Year Swap Spread (SHY) (real time) LIBOR[1.London Interbank Offered Rate] 3-month (SCHO) less 3-month Treasury-bill (VGSH) yield spread (real time) debit balances in margin accounts at broker dealers […]

    By Ricky Cove
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    Healthcare

    Why the US Government Has Been Shut Down Before

    A failure to raise the debt ceiling will likely result in a US government shutdown and a default by the US, which would be catastrophic for the global economy and financial markets (VTI) (USMV).

    By Ricky Cove
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    Macroeconomic Analysis

    What the Conference Board LEI Tells Us about the Market

    The Leading Credit Index is one of the constituents of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (or LEI), which is reported by The Conference Board on a monthly basis.

    By Ricky Cove
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    Macroeconomic Analysis

    Why Bond Traders Continue to Be Confused

    US Treasuries (GOVT) had another roller coaster ride this week due in part to the conflicting views from Fed members and weaker-than-expected economic data.

    By Ricky Cove
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    Macroeconomic Analysis

    Is a Flattening Yield Curve a Sign of an Impending Recession?

    Yields in the shorter timeframe such as the two-year yield (SHY) and T-notes (SCHO) are rising more than the ten-year or the 30-year (TLT) yields.

    By Ricky Cove
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    Macroeconomic Analysis

    How the Federal Reserve Contributes to a Flattening Yield Curve

    The US unemployment rate is close to the desired 4.5% and inflation has moved closer to the Fed’s target rate of 2.0%.

    By Ricky Cove
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    Macroeconomic Analysis

    What Does Rise in US Interest Rates Mean for Bond Markets?

    US Treasuries (GOVT) had a mixed response to the FOMC statement and the Fed’s interest rate hike.

    By Ricky Cove
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    Macroeconomic Analysis

    What Narrowing Yield Spreads of US Treasuries Could Indicate

    The US ten-year yield fell to 2.1% after the weak US data report, US inflation showed a decline of 0.1%, and retail sales fell by 0.3% for May 2017.

    By Ricky Cove
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    Macroeconomic Analysis

    Could an FOMC Rate Hike Drive Bond Yields Higher?

    Bond yields of U.S. Treasuries managed to recover from the losses of the previous week. Demand for US bonds receded.

    By Ricky Cove
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    Macroeconomic Analysis

    Why Bond Yields Were Unaffected by Trump News

    US Treasuries (SCHO) rallied all through the previous week supported by heavy safe-haven inflows into US bonds.

    By Ricky Cove
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    Financials

    Must know: How the Fed’s monetary policy affects short-term yields

    The Fed directly influences the short-term yields by either buying or selling short-term Treasuries or affecting the Fed funds rate.

    By Surbhi Jain
  • uploads///Treasury Yield Curve the QE effect
    Financials

    How does the Fed’s monetary policy affect the yield curve?

    When it comes to changes in the shape of the yield curve, there is no bigger factor driving these changes than the Federal Reserve.

    By Surbhi Jain
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