Market Vectors® Agribusiness ETF
Latest Market Vectors® Agribusiness ETF News and Updates
How Natural Gas Prices Are Moving
Natural gas prices are critical for nitrogen and ammonia-based phosphate fertilizer producers.
Analysts Lower Price Target for Mosaic in August 2017
Mosaic (MOS) released its 2Q17 earnings on August 1, 2017, and reported EPS (earnings per share) of $0.28, which beat analysts’ estimate of $0.25.
How Mosaic’s Phosphate Prices Fared in 2Q16
Phosphate fertilizer prices are key to Mosaic’s (MOS) Phosphate segment’s sales, earnings, and stock price.
Did Capacity Shutdowns in China Impact Urea Prices?
For the week ending October 28, the overall movement in urea prices was flat to positive. Granular urea prices rose 6.6% to $211 per metric ton in China.
Potash Prices Showed Weakness for the Week Ending April 21
Last week, potash prices continued to show weakness week-over-week. Prices were broadly flat to positive for the week ending April 21.
Analysts’ Ratings and the Next-12-Month Price Target for Mosaic
Of the 22 analysts surveyed, about 32% of them gave Mosaic (MOS) a “buy” rating. About 41% of analysts issued a “hold” rating, and only 27% issued a “sell” rating.
How CF Industries’ Cash Flows per Ton Are Set to Increase
With CF Industries’ production capacity increasing, its cash flow per ton of product is also expected to increase.
Why India’s potash price discount won’t affect share prices
The significance of potash price Wholesale potash price is one of two factors (the other being sales volume) that influence potash producers’ revenues. When prices rise, so does revenue, which will translate to higher profitability (margins), earnings, and share prices. However, when prices fall, they will have a negative impact on fundamentals and share prices. […]
Why Did Mosaic’s Potash Shipments Decline in 4Q15?
Overall, 4Q15 potash shipments declined 16% to 1,931 thousand tons, from 2,039 thousand tons in 4Q14. Most of the decline came from the international crop nutrient shipments.
Key trends Intrepid Potash investors should watch for in 2014
After a year of declining sales and increasing costs, management seems much more optimistic regarding potash as well as Langbeinite.
How Sensitive Is PotashCorp’s Dividend to Potash Prices?
In the last 12 months, PotashCorp (POT) has earned about 36% of its total sales from its Potash segment.
Key Takeaways from Agrium’s 2017 Earnings Estimates
Agrium’s (AGU) earnings for 1Q17 are estimated to fall from $0.05 per share in 1Q16 to -$0.06 per share.
A Review of CF Industries’ March 2017 Valuation Multiples
CF Industries’ (CF) earnings have been falling for the past five years, and it reported negative earnings in 4Q16.
Was Uralkali’s new business strategy really Canpotex’s fault?
Uralkali’s latest move might be considered a punishment. But also note that outside forces can create a more competitive environment.
MAP Fertilizer Prices Hit a New High in Brazil
Last week, MAP (monoammonium phosphate) prices in Brazil continued their uptrend, while prices in NOLA (New Orleans) moved sideways.
Why is the end use of potash internationally diversified?
As crops widely trade in the international market, they often converge with each other if transportation costs aren’t so high.
Wall Street’s Take on Agrium for July 2017
Unlike PotashCorp (POT), Mosaic (MOS), and CF Industries (CF), Agrium (AGU) has a large retail business, giving the company more stability in earnings.
Analysts’ Views on CF Industries after 2Q17 Earnings
CF Industries (CF) reported its quarterly earnings on August 2, 2017. Its EPS was $0.10, which was in line with analysts’ consensus estimate.
Ratings and Price Target for Intrepid Potash
As of January 23, 2017, one of the six analysts covering Intrepid Potash has a “buy” recommendation for the company over the next 12 months.
How Intrepid Potash’s Gross Margin Compares with Its Peers
With a gross deficit, Intrepid Potash reported an adjusted net loss per share of $0.23 in 2Q16, which would also make it the fifth consecutive quarter that the company has reported a net adjusted loss.
Why industry capacity changes also affect urea prices and profits
Generally, a capacity increase tends to lag demand growth, as producers like to see a stronger market before making significant investments.
MAP Prices in Brazil Continued to Rise Last Week
In the week ending January 20, average MAP prices in Brazil rose 2.1% to $343 per metric ton from $336 per metric ton the previous week.
Key Takeaways from CF Industries’ Strong Second-Quarter Results
CF Industries reported second-quarter sales of $1.3 billion, which beat analysts’ estimate of $1.2 billion.
DAP Prices See a Mixed Week for the Week Ending August 19
Average DAP prices in China were flat at 2,669 Chinese yuan per metric ton last week. DAP prices in Morocco remained unchanged at $340 per metric ton.
Is the Trio Segment an Answer to Intrepid’s Challenges?
Over the years, Intrepid Potash (IPI) has shifted its business model to focus more on Trio.
Why Intrepid Potash Is the Biggest Loser among Its Peers
In this article, we’ll compare the company’s potash cost of goods per ton to its average selling price per ton and those of other players in the market.
A Look at Potash Corporation’s Cash Flows and Leverage
During the first nine months of 2015, Potash Corporation’s free cash flows declined to $913 million from $1,175 million in the corresponding period in 2014. This was primarily due to a decline in potash prices.
A Look at DAP Prices and Their Continuing Climb
The average DAP price at US Gulf NOLA for the week ended March 25 rose to $340 per metric ton ($308 per short ton) compared to $302 per metric ton ($333 per short ton) the previous week.
Why Does CF Industries Have High Leverage?
CF Industries has resorted to leverage to fund its projects, which are expected to create more nitrogen capacity and, in turn, benefit shareholders.
What Is Positive about the Recent Wheat Stock-to-Use Numbers?
In September, the global wheat inventory declined 1.5% to 249 million metric tons compared with 252 million metric tons in August 2016.
PotashCorp: Effects of Falling Potash Prices
PotashCorp’s average potash selling price fell ~34.0% to $157 per ton in 4Q16, from $238 per ton in 4Q15. Potash prices in North America fell ~35.0%.
Analysts’ Price Target and Recommendations for FMC Corporation
Like Monsanto (MON), FMC Corporation (FMC) is in the business of crop protection products. The majority of FMC’s sales come from its Agricultural Solutions segment.
Why Nitrogen Prices Continue to Face Pressures
Overall, the nitrogen prices have weakened in 3Q15, falling to $319 per metric ton from $356 per metric ton in 3Q14.
Why potash stocks around the world crash as Uralkali leaves Belarus Potash Company
Industry concentration Industry concentration is a factor that affects competition. When only a few firms occupy a large portion of the industry’s revenue, competition tends to be less, as companies try to live with each other to maintain profits. On the other hand, when there are a large number of firms vying for market share, […]
What 2017 Meant for Potash Producers
Potash fertilizers Most of the fertilizer companies we’ve discussed in this series sell all or some of the three NPK (nitrogen, phosphorous, and potassium) macronutrients. To learn more about these macronutrients’ key role in agriculture, read Agricultural Fertilizer Industry: Your Comprehensive Overview. In this part, we’ll look at what 2017 meant for potash producers. Price trends […]
April Update for Fertilizer Stocks: Ratings and Price Targets
Fertilizer stocks have failed to impress investors in 2018. The VanEck Vectors Agribusiness ETF (MOO) has returned ~1.4% year-to-date.
How Fertilizer Prices Moved in Week Ending February 16
CVR Partners (UAN) emerged as the top gainer among fertilizer stocks with a 6.7% rise last week to close at $3.18 per share.
Analysts’ Ratings for Agrium before Its 3Q16 Results
Analysts’ ratings So far in this series, we’ve discussed analysts’ estimates for Agrium’s (AGU) 3Q16 sales, margins, and earnings per share. While you can gauge the outlook for the company using these estimates, it’s also helpful to look at analysts’ recommendations and price targets for Agrium over the next 12 months. Ratings and price targets Overall, […]
Monsanto-Bayer Merger: Analyzing the Opposition
The merger between Monsanto (MON) and Bayer is worth $66 billion. It’s one of the largest deals in the agribusiness (MOO) industry.
Analysts’ Ratings, Price Target for CF Industries before 1Q16 Earnings
Out of 16 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg, about 50% have “buy” ratings for CF Industries (CF). About 44% have “hold” recommendations, and one has a “sell” rating for the company.
Agrium’s Retail Crop Nutrient Shipments Rise in 3Q16
In 3Q16, Agrium’s Retail segment contributed 84% of total gross profit, with crop protection and crop nutrients making up the majority of segment sales.
How Is CF Industries Valued prior to Its 2Q17 Earnings?
It’s now time to look at what investors are paying for CF Industries prior to its 2Q17 earnings. Earlier, we learned that CF Industries is expected to report negative earnings per share in 2Q17.
How Nitrogen Shipments of These Fertilizer Companies Trended
In 4Q17, the overall nitrogen shipments of the five companies discussed below moved lower year-over-year.
How Bunge Is Creating Value from Segment Synergies
Bunge’s (BG) Agribusiness segment processes oilseeds into vegetable oils.
An Update on the PotashCorp-Agrium Merger
On September 12, 2016, PotashCorp and Agrium announced their intention to combine in a merger of equals. But China and India have set conditions.
Short-Term and Long-Term Outlook for Potash Prices
The supply-demand imbalance will further push down potash prices in the coming years. It will hurt companies such as PotashCorp, Mosaic, Intrepid Potash (IPI), and Agrium (AGU).
Analysts’ Ratings for Major Agribusiness Stocks: February Update
So far this year, some major agribusiness stocks, particularly in the fertilizer sector, have performed poorly.
CF Industries to Announce Its 4Q16 Earnings: What to Expect
CF Industries (CF) is set to announce its 4Q16 earnings on February 15, 2017, with estimated earnings per share of -$0.05. In 4Q15, CF Industries reported EPS of $0.76.
How Was CF’s Profitability in 2Q17?
During 2Q17, CF Industries’ (CF) overall gross margins fell steeply year-over-year from 46.5% to 15.3%.
Monsanto: Earnings Estimates and Target Price
As of December 25, 2017, Monsanto stock was covered by 18 analysts according to Reuters. The current consensus rating on the stock stood at 2.56.
What Are CF Industries’ Price Targets and Recommendations?
CF Industries (CF) closed at $27.3 per share on June 9, which was 13.4% lower than its levels at the beginning of this year.
Why Agrium Inc. suspending capacity addition will affect other producers (Part 1)
The importance of capacity utilization Capacity utilization measures how much of an industry’s or company’s available production output is being used. It’s based on dividing actual output by potential output. Because an industry or firm will often try to match production to demand, a rising capacity utilization rate means faster growth in demand relative to […]
More Tariffs on China, Fertilizer Stocks Are in the Red
China is one of the largest fertilizer consumers in the world. Investors are concerned that retaliatory measures might hurt fertilizer companies.
How Did the Fertilizer Affordability Index Perform Last Week?
In the week ending April 7, 2017, fertilizer affordability didn’t change. Notably, the Fertilizer Affordability Index remained flat at 0.60x week-over-week.
The Mosaic Company: Why MOS stock dropped on a market overreaction
Fertilizer stocks plummeted on the heels of the announcement that Russia’s Uralkali was quitting the Belarusian Potash Company cartel. The market overreacted.
Fertilizer Prices and Stocks Are on Pause: What’s Going On?
Last week, which ended September 7, the VanEck Vectors Agribusiness ETF (MOO) fell 1.8%, while the S&P 500 Index fell 1%.
How China’s Fertilizer Export Sector Is Changing
China is the largest consumer of nitrogen fertilizers, but it produces most of it within its borders. Urea is Chinese farmers’ top choice.
Why natural gas price affects nitrogenous fertilizer stocks (Part 1)
Natural gas and nitrogenous fertilizers Natural gas is a major raw material input in the production of nitrogenous fertilizers, such as urea and ammonia, ranging from 40% to 70% of cost of goods sold. A higher natural gas price increases the cost of goods sold and compresses margins. This in turn lowers earnings and free […]
Analysts Mull Israel Chemicals’s Performance over the Next 12 Months
Out of the 14 Wall Street analysts covering Israel Chemicals (ICL), only one has a “buy” recommendation on the company, 12 have a “hold” recommendation, and only one analyst has a “sell” recommendation.
Key Players’ Phosphate Segment Margins in 1Q17
Mosaic (MOS) continued to enjoy higher margins at 7%—compared to Agrium’s (AGU) margins at 5%. Mosaic’s margins were flat year-over-year.
Analysts’ Recommendations and Ratings for CF Industries
About 56% of Wall Street analysts still have “buy” recommendations for CF Industries.
Fertilizer Affordability Index for the Week Ending March 31
In the week ending March 31, 2017, the Fertilizer Affordability Index fell slightly to 0.60x from 0.62x the previous week.
Mosaic’s Next-12-Month Price Target after Its 2Q16 Results
Following Mosaic’s 2Q16 earnings release, Wall Street analysts revised their next-12-month price target down to $25.48 from $25.64.
CF Industries Released 1Q17 Results: What Investors Should Know
CF Industries (CF) reported its 1Q17 earnings on May 3 after the market closed. The company posted adjusted EPS (earnings per share) of $0.05, which missed analysts’ revised estimate.
CF Industries Pops on Price Upgrade from RBC
Today, RBC upgraded CF Industries (CF) from its “underperform” rating to “sector perform.”
Fertilizer Prices Update: Week Ended December 8
CVR Partners (UAN) emerged as the top gainer last week, rising 17.4% week-over-week to close at $3.70. CF Industries (CF) followed, rising 4.4% to close at $39.30.
Were Potash Prices Positive for Producers Last Week?
Average weekly potash prices in Vancouver fell 2% to $220 per metric ton during the week ending September 9—compared to the previous week.
Why CVR Partners Missed Analyst Estimates in Second Quarter
CVR Partners missed both top-line and bottom-line estimates for the second quarter, and the stock fell 4.5% after the earnings release.
Fertilizers Were More Affordable Last Week
When crop prices are high, a farmer will likely earn more income. In a soft crop price environment, a farmer might look to cut down the cost of fertilizers.
Are Rising Prices Affecting Fertilizer Affordability?
Recently, the Fertilizer Affordability Index has seen an upward trend.
Mosaic and CF Industries could be severely undervalued (Part 2)
Back to Part 1 Share of market cap While $3.7 billion and $2.7 billion of cash may not seem like a lot compared to Apple’s ~$150 billion, it’s crucial for investors not to get distracted by the absolute amount. What’s important for investors is knowing how much “excess cash” they’re receiving based on how much […]
Fertilizer Affordability Remains Stable amid Strengthening Prices
Fertilizer affordability has seen some tightening in the last couple of months.
Uralkali’s Forecasts for 2016 Global Potash Demand
According to Uralkali, the biggest drop in demand should come from China, which has delayed its contract negotiations.
2 key things that set the floor and ceiling for urea prices
Without an understanding of factors that affect crop prices, it would be difficult to formulate a view on future crop prices and demand for nitrogenous fertilizers.
A MAP Price Update for the Week Ended October 27
MAP (monoammonium phosphate) prices hit a low of $343 per metric ton in August but have been on an upward momentum since then.
Sorghum: Prices Fall and Production Is Expected to Rise
The total sorghum production in the world is expected to be about 54.1 million metric tons in the 2014–2015 season. The US is the top producer.
Are Fertilizers Getting Less Affordable?
In the week ended February 23, the Fertilizer Affordability Index rose to 0.71x from 0.7x a week ago.
What Analysts Recommend for These Four Fertilizer Stocks
Nutrien (NTR) has a consensus recommendation of “buy.”
Update: July 13 Fertilizer Stocks and Price Movements
Last week, which ended July 13, was broadly negative for the agribusiness sector. The broader market index was positive.
Why Wheat Prices Are Trading at a 5-Year Low
In its January report, the USDA (United States Department of Agriculture) reported that the world’s ending stock for wheat rose to 253 million metric tons from 252 million metric tons in December.
What Do Analysts Recommend for PotashCorp after 1Q16 Earnings?
On April 19, Barclays downgraded PotashCorp’s stock to “underweight” from “equalweight.” The company also cut its price target to $14 from $16.
Weaker rupee lowered farmers’ demand for potash in 2012, how about 2013?
Just like the U.S. dollar is a key influence to crop prices, the strength or weakness of the Indian currency, the rupee, has a significant impact on potash demand. As potash is traded globally, the standard currency for exchange is in U.S. dollars. When the Indian rupee weakens, it is often a negative for potash […]
DAP Prices Didn’t Move for the Week Ending June 9
Last week, the weekly price movement was broadly flat to negative. DAP prices at the US NOLA fell by as much as 96 basis points week-over-week.
A Price Update on MAP Fertilizers in Brazil
Last week, the MAP prices in Brazil rose as much as 5.6% week-over-week to $394 per metric ton from $373 per metric ton a week ago.
Who Are the Biggest Players in the Fertilizer Industry?
There’s a handful of big players in the agricultural fertilizer industry. Setting up business requires huge capital, which makes for a high barrier to entry.
Which Analysts Are Bullish on Nutrien in January 2018?
At the end of 2017, after receiving final regulatory approval for the merger, PotashCorp and Agrium combined into a new company called Nutrien (NTR).
How Wheat Prices Moved in June 2017
Wheat prices traded at an average of $4.4 per bushel in 2016, lower than their average of $5.1 per bushel in 2015.
How Nitrogen Margins for Fertilizer Companies Trended in 4Q17
In the recent quarters, fertilizer companies (MOO) have rationalized their output and costs to sustain the downward momentum in fertilizer prices that seemed to keep going down.
Fertilizer Affordability Still Largely Unchanged Last Week
Last week, which ended October 12, fertilizer affordability was unchanged week-over-week.
Will Potash Prices Continue to Fall in 2016?
Potash prices over the past few years have been considerably lower than what we saw during their peaks of ~$482 in 2011 and ~$870 in 2009.
What Hurdles Could Monsanto-Bayer Deal Face?
A few days ago, Monsanto (MON) agreed to Bayer’s takeover offer of $128 per share for a total deal value of $66 billion.
Corn, Soybean, and Wheat Prices Fall in August, but Why?
On August 13, the crop index stood at 89.9. It rose by 1% following the USDA’s latest stock-to-use ratio, which was published on August 12.
Analyzing Fertilizers’ Affordability Last Week
It isn’t surprising to see that current fertilizer prices are more affordable compared to the base year because prices have fallen significantly.
Your Pre-3Q16 Earnings Estimates for PotashCorp
PotashCorp (POT) is set to announce its 3Q16 earnings on October 27, 2016. It’s still in negative returns territory, falling 7.2% so far this year.
How Valuation Multiples Have Changed for Fertilizer Companies
Mosaic (MOS), which has historically traded at a high valuation multiple of 9.2x, is currently trading at an enterprise value to next 12-month EBITDA ratio of 5.7x.
China might cut its urea export tax in 2015, helping Agrium and CF
Industry experts often show ex-China global urea capacity utilization because China’s export tax makes domestic producers’ urea more expensive for international buyers.
Fertilizer Affordability Index Update for October 6
The Fertilizer Affordability Index kept trending lower last week, continuing its two-week streak.
How Is Bunge Expanding Oilseed Segment’s Global Presence?
In the Oilseeds segment, Bunge’s focus has been to enhance its footprint in the major growth regions.
What 2017 Could Hold for Potash Producers
Potash stocks struggled for most of 2016. In 1H16, potash demand was negatively affected due to delays in potash contract settlements in China and India.
Why investing in seed is different than investing in fertilizer (Part 2)
Continued from Part 1 Monsanto and DuPont Two industry giants dominate the seed industry, Monsanto Co. (MON) and DuPont (DD), which together held ~62% of the industry’s revenue in 2012. Why are these two companies dominant players in the industry? Let’s explore. Patent protection One big differentiator between seed and fertilizer stocks is patentability. Companies […]