Market Vectors® Agribusiness ETF
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Sales Drivers and What to Expect for Fertilizer Companies
The world has a problem that’s actually good for the fertilizer industry. This is the world’s population, which is ever-growing, as is food consumption.
Deere’s Q2 Equipment Operations Revenue Reports 5.4% Growth
In the second quarter of fiscal 2019, Deere (DE) reported total revenue of $10.27 billion from its equipment operations.
Mosaic: Analysts’ Ratings and Target Price in November
While Mosaic’s target price increased in November, analysts’ recommendations remained unchanged month-over-month.
Fertilizer Stocks: Analysts’ Recommendations and Target Prices
The agribusiness sector has largely remained weak in 2018. The agribusiness sector gave up its gains last week.
Deere’s Q4 2018 Revenues Maintained the Upward Trajectory
In the fourth quarter, Deere (DE) reported total revenues of $9.42 billion, which included financial services and other revenues.
Fertilizer Affordability Improved Due to Higher Crop Prices
Last week, the Fertilizer Affordability Index, which is issued by Mosaic, declined to 0.83x from 0.85x a week ago.
Potash Prices Were Flat to Positive Last Week
In the Cornbelt region of the US, the potash prices rose by 31 basis points to $289 per metric ton from $288 per metric ton.
Urea Prices Continued to Fall Last Week
In the week ending November 2, urea prices continued to drop—a continuation of the trend we observed in the past few weeks.
Fertilizer Prices for the Week Ending November 2
The week ending November 2 was broadly positive for the agribusiness sector. The VanEck Vectors Agribusiness ETF (MOO) rose ~4.5%.
CF Industries Reported Strong Third-Quarter Earnings
On October 31, CF Industries (CF) reported its third-quarter earnings. The company reported revenue growth of 19.5% YoY to $1.04 billion.
Natural Gas Prices Rose Yet Again Last Week
Natural gas prices for the week ending October 26 increased week-over-week at most locations in the US.
How Fertilizer Stocks and Prices Moved Last Week
Last week, the overall agribusiness sector was broadly negative. The VanEck Vectors Agribusiness ETF (MOO) fell ~4.9%.
Analyzing MAP Prices in the Week Ending October 19
Last week, the MAP prices in the NOLA (New Orleans) region of the US were flat week-over-week at $430 per metric ton.
Urea Prices Paused in the Week Ending October 19
In the week ending October 19, urea prices in the NOLA region of the US and in Brazil paused after a meteoric rise since the beginning of April.
Fertilizer Stocks and Prices for the Week Ending October 19
Last week, Intrepid Potash rose 5.9% to $3.6. Nutrien (NTR) gained 3.3% to $55.8, while Israel Chemicals (ICL) gained 1.6% to $6.2 per share.
Fertilizer Affordability Still Largely Unchanged Last Week
Last week, which ended October 12, fertilizer affordability was unchanged week-over-week.
Potash Prices Flat to Positive Last Week
Last week, granular potash prices in NOLA (New Orleans) rose 2.6% to $251 per metric ton, from $245 in the week ended October 5.
Why Nitrogen Input Natural Gas Spiked Last Week
Last week, global tensions remained high, and natural gas prices spiked as the overall stock market traded in the deep red.
MAP Prices Were Flat Last Week
Last week, MAP (monoammonium phosphate) prices were flat in the Brazil and NOLA (New Orleans) regions.
Nitrogen Input: How Natural Gas Prices Performed Last Week
Natural gas prices are a key price driver for urea and other nitrogen fertilizers.
CF Industries: UBS Raised the Target Price
On October 2, CF Industries (CF) received a target price upgrade from UBS. The stock gained ~1.8% and rose to $55.8 during the day.
Why Did DAP Phosphate Prices Pause and Fall Last Week?
DAP (diammonium phosphate) prices have been rising in 2018 and made new highs in recent weeks. Last week, DAP prices appeared to pause.
Nitrogen Fertilizers: Henry Hub Natural Gas Spot Prices
In the week ending September 28, the EIA (U.S. Energy Information Administration) reported that the natural gas prices in the United States were mixed.
Are Institutional Investors Buying or Selling Deere?
The 13F filings of June 30 indicate that institutional investors own ~67.1% of Deere’s (DE) outstanding shares.
Fertilizer Stocks and Prices in the Week Ending September 21
The week ending September 21 was broadly positive for the fertilizer sector. MOO rose 2.3% from the week ending September 14.
Urea Prices Flat to Positive in Week Ended September 7
Urea, the most common nitrogen fertilizer, has been on an upward trend in recent weeks.
Fertilizer Prices and Stocks Are on Pause: What’s Going On?
Last week, which ended September 7, the VanEck Vectors Agribusiness ETF (MOO) fell 1.8%, while the S&P 500 Index fell 1%.
Fertilizer Stocks and Commodity Prices for Week Ended August 31
Last week, the overall fertilizer sector was broadly positive with six of the six stocks ending in flat to positive territory.
ICL, MOS, CF, NTR: A Look at Valuation Multiples
The median forward EV-to-EBITDA multiple of the four fertilizer companies stood at 9.7x as of August 27.
Why EBITDA Margins Matter to Fertilizer Stocks
Mosaic (MOS) is expected to see its gross margins expand to 21% in fiscal 2019 from 13% in fiscal 2018.
MAP Phosphate Fertilizer Reached New High Last Week
MAP (monoammonium phosphate) prices last week rose to a new high, confirming a strong momentum for fertilizer stocks.
Fertilizer Continued to Rise in Week Ended August 24
Last week was broadly positive for the fertilizer sector, with the VanEck Vectors Agribusiness ETF (MOO) ending 1.3% higher.
How CF Industries Fared in the Second Quarter
CF Industries reported sales growth of 16% year-over-year in the second quarter due to the increase in realized fertilizer prices across its five segments.
Fertilizer Prices Take a Pause: Weekly Update
The fertilizer sector remained under pressure between August 3 and August 13, with the benchmark VanEck Vectors Agribusiness ETF (MOO) declining 2.4%
China: Less Phosphate Exports?
Mosaic (MOS), which is one of the major phosphate fertilizer producers, provided some insights into the phosphate market during its earnings call.
Nutrien Pops on Second-Quarter Earnings
Nutrien (NTR) reported its second-quarter earnings on August 1 after the market closed.
What to Expect from Intrepid Potash’s Second-Quarter Earnings
Intrepid Potash (IPI) is set to release its second quarter 2018 earnings on August 1. Analysts are estimating EPS of $0.04.
CF Industries Pops on Price Upgrade from RBC
Today, RBC upgraded CF Industries (CF) from its “underperform” rating to “sector perform.”
Nutrien’s Retail Business and Agrible’s Technology Platform
Agrible’s technology gives a digital dimension to farming activity by driving efficiency in decision-making.
What Is Agrible? A Look at Nutrien’s Latest Acquisition
On July 16, Nutrien (NTR) announced that it has entered into an agreement to acquire Agrible for a value of $63 million.
Update: July 13 Fertilizer Stocks and Price Movements
Last week, which ended July 13, was broadly negative for the agribusiness sector. The broader market index was positive.
More Tariffs on China, Fertilizer Stocks Are in the Red
China is one of the largest fertilizer consumers in the world. Investors are concerned that retaliatory measures might hurt fertilizer companies.
Monoammonium Phosphate Prices Reverse in New Orleans
Like DAP (diammonium phosphate) prices, MAP (monoammonium phosphate) prices were mixed last week.
Fertilizers Got Stronger the Week Ended June 29
The upward trend for fertilizer continued last week, with CVR Partners (UAN) rising 9.6% week-over-week to $3.30.
How Potash Prices Fared Last Week
Last week, potash prices were also broadly positive and managed to make new highs so far year-to-date.
Last Week Was a Great Week for Fertilizer Prices
Last week, the major NPK (nitrogen, phosphorous, and potassium) fertilizer prices rose broadly week-over-week.
Fertilizer Stocks Struggled on June 25 amid the Trade War
On June 25, the stock market continued to bleed due to risks from the escalating trade. The S&P 500 Index (SPY) fell almost 1.3%.
Fertilizer Stocks in June: Analysts’ Ratings and Price Targets
So far, June has been positive for most fertilizer stocks, buoyed by expectations of an improvement in commodity prices.
What the Future Could Hold for CF Industries Stock
CF Industries (CF), one of the major nitrogen producers in North America, has had a bumpy ride since 2015.
The RAAX ETF: When to Invest in Real Assets
We were fully invested in April. This was the right call as real asset investments rallied. RAAX begins to raise a cash position when five or more assets become bearish.
The RAAX ETF: What to Own in Real Assets
The aphorism “a rising tide lifts all boats” is appropriate here. April was a great month to invest in real assets.
Why the RAAX Fund Is Mostly Bullish on May Positioning
RAAX remains fully invested across commodities, natural resource equities, and MLPs. As they were at launch, the largest weightings remain in diversified commodities (30%), gold bullion (20%), and agribusiness equities (20%).
The RAAX Fund’s April Performance: Must-Knows
The VanEck Vectors Real Asset Allocation ETF (RAAX) launched, on April 9, into a period of strong performance for real assets.
Cowen and Company Raises Mosaic’s Price Target to $35
On May 17, Cowen and Company raised its price target for Mosaic (MOS) to $35 per share from its previous target of $32.
Is Stephens Getting More Bullish on Intrepid Potash?
Intrepid Potash (IPI) reported its earnings on April 24 before the market opened.
Nutrien Stock: 1Q18 Earnings Results Snapshot
Nutrien (NTR)(POT)(AGU) reported its 1Q18 earnings on May 7 after the market closed.
Mosaic Stock Down after Its 1Q18 Earnings Results
The Mosaic Company (MOS) announced its 1Q18 earnings after the market closed on May 7. It posted adjusted EPS (earnings per share) of $0.11.
What to Expect from Mosaic’s 1Q18 Earnings
Mosaic is expected to report EPS of $0.28 in 1Q18, which would be a significant rise from its EPS of $0.04 in 1Q17.
Snapshot: CF Industries Reports Its 1Q18 Earnings
CF Industries (CF) reported its 1Q18 earnings on May 2, after the market closed.
How Did Potash Prices Perform Last Week?
While nitrogen and phosphate prices at some locations experienced a weekly increase, potash prices were broadly flat to negative week-over-week.
How Fertilizer Prices Moved in the Week Ending April 27
As of May 1, Israel Chemicals and Mosaic were the only two fertilizer stocks to have positive YTD (year-to-date) returns.
Will CF Industries See Operating Margin Growth in 1Q18?
For 1Q18, CF Industries’ EBITDA (earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization) are estimated to grow year-over-year by 22% to $333 million from $272 million a year ago.
April Update for Fertilizer Stocks: Ratings and Price Targets
Fertilizer stocks have failed to impress investors in 2018. The VanEck Vectors Agribusiness ETF (MOO) has returned ~1.4% year-to-date.
Fertilizer Affordability Index Drifted Lower Last Week
In the week that ended on April 13, 2018, the Fertilizer Affordability Index drifted lower, continuing its two-week streak.
MAP Prices Continued to Weaken Last Week
Last week, MAP (monoammonium phosphate) prices mimicked the movements in DAP (diammonium phosphate) prices.
Natural Gas Outlook for Nitrogen Fertilizers
Natural gas prices, which are key to US nitrogen fertilizer producers (MOO), were broadly lower during the week of April 4 to April 11, 2018.
Fertilizer Affordability Continues to Be Attractive for Buyers
The Fertilizer Affordability Index issued by the Mosaic Company (MOS) showed that fertilizers continued to be more affordable last week.
Urea Prices Tumbled in Week Ended April 6
Last week, urea prices in the NOLA (New Orleans) region of the US declined by ~3.4% week-over-week to $207 per metric ton from $214 per metric ton.
Why Monsanto Stock Popped Yesterday
Monsanto (MON) stock surged on April 9, 2018, following news that the U.S. Department of Justice approved the merger with Bayer.
Potash Prices Were Strong Last Week
In the week ending March 30, 2018, potash prices were broadly flat to positive. Last week, the prices were also strong YoY (year-over-year).
MAP Prices Were Mixed in the Week Ending March 30
In the week ending March 30, 2018, MAP prices in Brazil remained flat week-over-week at $426 per metric ton from a week ago.
Fertilizer Update for the Week Ending March 30
CF Industries emerged as the biggest gainer last week and rose as much as 1.0% to $37.7. Most fertilizer stocks continue to deliver losses YTD.
What Deere’s Latest Short Interest Data Suggests
Based on the latest short interest report on March 1, 2018, Deere’s (DE) short interest has fallen since the beginning of 2018.
Bayer-Monsanto Deal Now Awaits Approval from US and Russia
The Bayer-Monsanto (MON) deal is still under review for antitrust issues in the US due to concerns that the two companies combined could harm the competitive environment.
Fertilizer Affordability Improves in the Week Ended March 16
Fertilizer affordability tracks how the prices of key NPK fertilizers moved in comparison with the key fertilizer-consuming crops such as corn, soybean, and wheat.
MAP Prices Fell in the Week Ended March 16
Last week, MAP prices in both Brazil and NOLA (New Orleans) fell week-over-week.
How Fertilizer Stocks Are Performing
In the week ended March 16, the VanEck Vectors Agribusiness ETF (MOO) fell ~2%.
FMC’s Ratings and Target Price for March 2018
The current consensus mean rating on FMC stands at 2.18 with an overall “buy” recommendation on the stock.
What Do Analysts Expect for SQM in March?
The current consensus mean rating on SQM stands at 2.42 with an overall “buy” recommendation on the stock. The rating rose from 2.3 last month.
CF Industries: Analyzing the Ratings and Target Price in March
CF Industries reported its earnings on February 14. Before its earnings, CF Industries was trading at $39.7. CF Industries stock soared to $44.7 on March 5.
Which Producer Saw the Highest Potash Shipments in 4Q17?
Overall shipments in 4Q17 for five companies fell ~13% year-over-year.
How Producers’ Phosphate Selling Prices Moved in 4Q17
Phosphate fertilizers have been weaker year-over-year compared to potash and nitrogen fertilizer prices.
How Nitrogen Margins for Fertilizer Companies Trended in 4Q17
In the recent quarters, fertilizer companies (MOO) have rationalized their output and costs to sustain the downward momentum in fertilizer prices that seemed to keep going down.
How Nitrogen Shipments of These Fertilizer Companies Trended
In 4Q17, the overall nitrogen shipments of the five companies discussed below moved lower year-over-year.
4Q Earnings Analysis: How These 8 Fertilizer Companies Stacked Up
With the 4Q17 earnings season behind us, it’s time to take a closer look at how fertilizer companies (MOO) performed in the recent quarter.
Are Fertilizers Getting Less Affordable?
In the week ended February 23, the Fertilizer Affordability Index rose to 0.71x from 0.7x a week ago.
How Potash Prices Performed Last Week
Last week, granular potash prices in Brazil rose as much as 1% week-over-week to $294 per metric ton from $291 per metric ton a week ago.
Phosphate Prices Continued to Strengthen Last Week
Last week, phosphate prices for both DAP (diammonium phosphate) and MAP (monoammonium phosphate) continued their upward momentum.
Urea Prices Rose Last Week
Urea prices for the standard grade in the NOLA (New Orleans) region of the US and in Egypt saw the steepest weekly change last week.
Analysts’ Ratings for Major Agribusiness Stocks: February Update
So far this year, some major agribusiness stocks, particularly in the fertilizer sector, have performed poorly.
Deere’s Fiscal 1Q18 Revenue Rises but Falls Short of Estimates
In fiscal 1Q18, Deere & Company (DE) reported total revenue of $6.9 billion inclusive of financial services and other revenue.
Analyzing Potash Fertilizer Prices for the Week Ending February 16
In the week ending February 16, potash prices were broadly flat to positive compared to a week ago.
How DAP Prices Performed Last Week
Last week, DAP (diammonium phosphate) prices in all three locations in the US rose week-over-week.
How Fertilizer Prices Moved in Week Ending February 16
CVR Partners (UAN) emerged as the top gainer among fertilizer stocks with a 6.7% rise last week to close at $3.18 per share.
How CF Industries’ Per-Ton Margins Performed in 4Q17
CF’s Ammonia segment’s gross margin per ton expanded from $1.00 per metric ton to $36.00 per metric ton.
Why Selling Prices for CF Industries Rose in 4Q17
CF’s Granular Urea segment’s selling price increased 14.0% year-over-year to $244.00 per metric ton.
How CF Industries’ Shipments Grew in 4Q17
During 4Q17, CF Industries’ Ammonia segment grew 58.0% year-over-year to 1.2 million metric tons.
Deere’s Fiscal 1Q18 Revenues Set for a Big Jump
Deere (DE) is expected to report revenues of $6.4 billion in fiscal 1Q18 from its equipment operations.
What Scotts Miracle-Gro Could Gain from Tax Cuts
SMG said it intends to pass on the benefits from tax savings to its employees by increasing salaries and through other programs.
Fertilizer Affordability Remains Stable amid Strengthening Prices
Fertilizer affordability has seen some tightening in the last couple of months.