ICL-Israel Chemicals Ltd.

The world has a problem that’s actually good for the fertilizer industry. This is the world’s population, which is ever-growing, as is food consumption.

Last week, the Fertilizer Affordability Index, which is issued by Mosaic, declined to 0.83x from 0.85x a week ago.

In the Cornbelt region of the US, the potash prices rose by 31 basis points to $289 per metric ton from $288 per metric ton.

On October 31, CF Industries (CF) reported its third-quarter earnings. The company reported revenue growth of 19.5% YoY to $1.04 billion.

Last week, potash prices were still on the rise despite the weekly decline in nitrogen and phosphate fertilizers.

Last week, DAP (diammonium phosphate) prices were broadly lower week-over-week at most locations.

Last week, the MAP prices in the NOLA (New Orleans) region of the US were flat week-over-week at $430 per metric ton.

Last week, Intrepid Potash rose 5.9% to $3.6. Nutrien (NTR) gained 3.3% to $55.8, while Israel Chemicals (ICL) gained 1.6% to $6.2 per share.

Last week, granular potash prices in NOLA (New Orleans) rose 2.6% to $251 per metric ton, from $245 in the week ended October 5.

Potash prices in Brazil rose the most last week with a rise of 2.3% to $357 per metric ton from $349 per metric ton.

Last week, MAP (monoammonium phosphate) prices were flat in the Brazil and NOLA (New Orleans) regions.

DAP (diammonium phosphate) prices have been rising in 2018 and made new highs in recent weeks. Last week, DAP prices appeared to pause.

Last week, the MAP prices in the NOLA (New Orleans) region rose by as much as 47 basis points week-over-week to $432 per metric ton.

The week ending September 21 was broadly positive for the fertilizer sector. MOO rose 2.3% from the week ending September 14.

Last week, potash prices didn’t show movement in NOLA (New Orleans) or the Cornbelt region of the US.

MAP (monoammonium phosphate) prices last week continued their ascent.

DAP (diammonium phosphate) prices have been rising lately.

Last week, the overall fertilizer sector was broadly positive with six of the six stocks ending in flat to positive territory.

Nutrien (NTR) has a consensus recommendation of “buy.”

The median forward EV-to-EBITDA multiple of the four fertilizer companies stood at 9.7x as of August 27.

Mosaic (MOS) was trading at a forward PE of 15.8x, a discount compared to the peer average of 17.5x.

Mosaic (MOS) is expected to see its gross margins expand to 21% in fiscal 2019 from 13% in fiscal 2018.

DAP (diammonium phosphate) fertilizer prices continued to hit new highs last week, which ended on August 24.

MAP (monoammonium phosphate) prices last week rose to a new high, confirming a strong momentum for fertilizer stocks.

Last week was broadly positive for the fertilizer sector, with the VanEck Vectors Agribusiness ETF (MOO) ending 1.3% higher.

It’s important for CF Industries (CF) investors to understand what’s behind increasing fertilizer prices.

Fertilizer affordability last week, which ended on August 10, was largely unchanged, as reported by Mosaic (MOS).

For the week ended August 10, MAP (monoammonium phosphate) prices remained firm, mirroring DAP (diammonium phosphate) price movements.

The fertilizer sector remained under pressure between August 3 and August 13, with the benchmark VanEck Vectors Agribusiness ETF (MOO) declining 2.4%

In 2018, Mosaic expects the global phosphate demand to be at 70 million metric tons.

Mosaic (MOS), which is one of the major phosphate fertilizer producers, provided some insights into the phosphate market during its earnings call.

In the near term, analysts’ estimates for Intrepid Potash’s (IPI) sales fail to show a positive momentum.

On July 16, Nutrien (NTR) announced that it has entered into an agreement to acquire Agrible for a value of $63 million.

Last week, MAP (monoammonium phosphate) prices in Brazil continued their uptrend, while prices in NOLA (New Orleans) moved sideways.

Last week, DAP prices in Tampa rose the most, rising 1.7% week-over-week to $427 per metric ton, from $420 per metric ton.

CVR Partners is expected to report a loss per share of $0.06 in the second quarter compared to a loss per share of $0.03 in the corresponding quarter a year ago.

Wall Street analysts estimate sales growth of $102 million in the second quarter, which would be a 4% year-over-year increase from $98 million in the second quarter of 2017.

China is one of the largest fertilizer consumers in the world. Investors are concerned that retaliatory measures might hurt fertilizer companies.

In recent weeks, potash prices have been rising and hitting YTD (year-to-date) highs.

Like DAP (diammonium phosphate) prices, MAP (monoammonium phosphate) prices were mixed last week.

After peaking the week prior, global DAP (diammonium phosphate) prices were mixed last week.

In this series, we’ll look at key NPK (nitrogen, phosphorous, and potassium) fertilizer prices last week.

Last week, potash prices in the NOLA (New Orleans) region of the United States rose 1.6% week-over-week to $235 per metric ton.

DAP (diammonium phosphate) fertilizer prices in four of seven locations around the world rose last week, continuing an upward momentum.

Last week, potash prices were also broadly positive and managed to make new highs so far year-to-date.

CF Industries’ valuation multiples have risen across the board since February 2016 and have broadly moved sideways since then.

Year-over-year, DAP prices remain strong with NOLA and China each experiencing a 21% gain year-over-year.

Last week, fertilizer affordability fell from the previous week on the back of a steeper increase in fertilizer prices week-over-week.

Potash prices, similar to nitrogen and phosphates, continued to show strength last week as well.

Last week, potash prices were broadly flat to positive, similar to phosphate fertilizer prices.

Like DAP (diammonium phosphate) prices last week, MAP (monoammonium phosphate) prices were broadly flat to positive WoW (week-over-week) but stayed higher YoY (year-over-year).

For 1Q18, Mosaic is estimated to post $1.8 billion in sales, which would represent a 12% increase from $1.6 in 1Q17.

While nitrogen and phosphate prices at some locations experienced a weekly increase, potash prices were broadly flat to negative week-over-week.

As of May 1, Israel Chemicals and Mosaic were the only two fertilizer stocks to have positive YTD (year-to-date) returns.

Last week, prices for DAP (diammonium phosphate) fertilizer were broadly flat to positive except for Morocco.

Last week, most fertilizer stocks ended in positive territory. Intrepid Potash (IPI) was the biggest gainer, rising 4.3% to $4.20.

In the week that ended on April 13, 2018, the Fertilizer Affordability Index drifted lower, continuing its two-week streak.

Last week, potash prices remained strong with overall flat to positive movement. Prices in Brazil and Southeast Asia remained particularly strong week-over-week.

Last week, MAP (monoammonium phosphate) prices mimicked the movements in DAP (diammonium phosphate) prices.

In the week that ended on April 13, 2018, DAP (diammonium phosphate) prices were broadly flat to negative.

The Fertilizer Affordability Index issued by the Mosaic Company (MOS) showed that fertilizers continued to be more affordable last week.

Last week, urea prices in the NOLA (New Orleans) region of the US declined by ~3.4% week-over-week to $207 per metric ton from $214 per metric ton.

In the week ending March 30, 2018, MAP prices in Brazil remained flat week-over-week at $426 per metric ton from a week ago.

The Fertilizer Affordability Index rose slightly to 0.67x last week from 0.66x a week ago. The index level stood at 0.7x a month ago and 0.61x a year ago.

Last week, the DAP prices in the NOLA region rose by 53 basis points to $344 per metric ton from $342 per metric ton.

Last week, MAP prices in both Brazil and NOLA (New Orleans) fell week-over-week.

In the week ended March 16, the VanEck Vectors Agribusiness ETF (MOO) fell ~2%.

Due to the increase in potash prices this year, the overall potash segment margins for five companies discussed below expanded as much as 9% to 29% from 20% on average.

Intrepid Potash (IPI) saw the steepest increase in prices year-over-year by ~34% to $224 per metric ton from $168 per metric ton a year ago in 4Q16.

Overall shipments in 4Q17 for five companies fell ~13% year-over-year.

In 4Q17, median phosphate shipments continued their declining trend.

Last week, MAP prices in both the locations rose on a weekly basis.

Last week, phosphate prices for both DAP (diammonium phosphate) and MAP (monoammonium phosphate) continued their upward momentum.

In the week ending February 16, potash prices were broadly flat to positive compared to a week ago.

MAP (monoammonium phosphate) prices in Brazil have been on the rise lately from a low point of $343 per metric ton as a result of strong agricultural activity in the region.

In the week ending January 26, potash prices at the locations discussed below were broadly flat to positive and remained strong compared to levels observed a year ago.

Potash prices remained strong in the week ending January 19.

MAP prices In the earlier part of this series, we discussed that DAP (diammonium phosphate) prices were broadly mixed week-over-week, while they were much higher year-over-year. MAP (monoammonium phosphate) prices last week also followed the same trend. Let’s look at it below. Weekly movements Last week, MAP prices were broadly mixed week-over-week at the two locations […]

DAP (diammonium phosphate) prices have been moving higher from levels observed in late 2016 and early 2017.

In the week ending January 19, the VanEck Vectors Agribusiness ETF (MOO) rose 1%, and the broader market S&P 500 (SPY) also ended in positive territory with a gain of 1.2%.

In Brazil, potash prices were flat at $281 per metric ton in the week ending January 12.

In the week ending January 12, the MAP prices in Brazil and NOLA (New Orleans) moved in opposite directions week-over-week.

Nineteen Wall Street analysts are covering CF Industries. They have a consensus mean rating of 2.7 on the stock with an overall “hold” recommendation as of January 10, 2018.

At the end of 2017, after receiving final regulatory approval for the merger, PotashCorp and Agrium combined into a new company called Nutrien (NTR).

Recently, the Fertilizer Affordability Index has seen an upward trend.

The potash fertilizer prices for both granular and standard grade were comfortably higher compared to the levels observed last year around the same week.

For the week ending January 5, 2018, DAP (diammonium phosphate) global prices at most locations were flat to positive with the exception of Saudi Arabia.

For the week ending January 5, 2018, the VanEck Vectors Agribusiness ETF (MOO) ended almost 2% higher, while the S&P 500 Index (SPY) rose 1.7%.

Intrepid Potash was one of the top performers in 2017. Its stock rose ~127% YTD from $2.1 on January 3, 2017, to $4.72 at the closing on December 28.

In addition to the regulatory approval from the US (MOO), this merger has also received approval from Canada, Russia, India, China, and Brazil.

Sales expectations So far in this series, we’ve reviewed agribusiness companies’ 2017 performance and 2018 expectations. In this part, we’ll review analysts’ sales growth estimates for 2018. Growth estimates As shown in the above chart, agribusiness companies, excluding Israel Chemicals (ICL) and CVR Partners (UAN), are expected to see lower sales growth year-over-year in fiscal […]

Phosphate prices Earlier in this series, we discussed phosphate prices in 2017 and what has driven prices down recently. We saw that excess capacity pushed down phosphate fertilizer (NANR) prices during the year. In this part, we’ll look at supply and demand trends for phosphate fertilizers in 2018. Supply and demand In 2017, overall global […]

Phosphate fertilizers Performance-wise, phosphate fertilizers have been weaker than potash and nitrogen fertilizers in 2017. As we’ve seen so far in this series, prices are key to investments in fertilizer companies. For the latest developments, read Fertilizer Price Update: Week Ended December 15. Price trends Mosaic’s (MOS), Agrium’s (AGU), and PotashCorp’s (POT) median sales price grew ~1% […]

MAP (monoammonium phosphate) prices have shown strength in recent weeks, moving higher to peak at $ $403 per metric ton in Brazil.

Three stocks—Compass Minerals International, Agrium, and CF Industries—have stable dividend yields, while Israel Chemicals’ yield is more volatile.

Perhaps dividend yield is one of the most common starting points when screening for dividend stocks.

Last week, which ended December 8, 2017, MAP prices in Brazil fell week-over-week by 25 basis points to $402 per metric ton, from $403 per metric ton.

Last week, which ended December 8, 2017, was broadly mixed for movements in DAP (diammonium phosphate) prices. Some regions saw weekly gains, and others moved sideways to negative.

CVR Partners (UAN) emerged as the top gainer last week, rising 17.4% week-over-week to close at $3.70. CF Industries (CF) followed, rising 4.4% to close at $39.30.

Potash prices Potash prices remained firm for the week ending December 1. In most of the regions discussed below, the weekly prices of potash fertilizers were flat to positive. Weekly movements Last week, the granular potash prices in the Cornbelt region of the US (MOO) rose ~1.2% week-over-week to $234 per metric ton from $231 […]