ICL-Israel Chemicals Ltd.

Last week, potash prices continued to show weakness week-over-week. Prices were broadly flat to positive for the week ending April 21.

In the last 12 months, PotashCorp (POT) has earned about 36% of its total sales from its Potash segment.

Last week was mostly negative for agricultural fertilizer (FXZ) stocks. However, the VanEck Vectors Agribusiness ETF (MOO) ended the week in positive territory.

Agrium’s (AGU) Retail segment’s shipments declined by 0.03% to 4.84 million tons in 2Q16, down from 4.86 million tons in 2Q15.

Average DAP prices in China were flat at 2,669 Chinese yuan per metric ton last week. DAP prices in Morocco remained unchanged at $340 per metric ton.

Over the past ten-year period, CF Industries has risen 186.0% and significantly outperformed the S&P 500 Index’s rise of 69.2% over the same period.

For the week ending November 25, fertilizer affordability fell to 0.65x from 0.66x week-over-week.

On average, potash prices for these five producers fell ~33% YoY in 4Q16. Excess supply and weak demand added downward pressure.

The MAP (monoammonium phosphate) prices in Brazil saw positive momentum last week. Brazil is still a favorable market for fertilizer producers.

Last week, fertilizer affordability rose to 0.66x from 0.65x week-over-week. A ratio below one means that fertilizers are more affordable than during the base year.

The Fertilizer Affordability Index has shown a downward trend since the beginning of the year. Fertilizers have become more affordable in 2017.

Last week, MAP (monoammonium phosphate) prices continued to fall and brought more pain for phosphate producers (NANR).

For the week ending April 28, the Fertilizer Affordability Index fell slightly to 0.58x—compared to 0.59x the previous week.

Mosaic (MOS) continued to enjoy higher margins at 7%—compared to Agrium’s (AGU) margins at 5%. Mosaic’s margins were flat year-over-year.

The median gross margin for these companies’ phosphate segments was 14%, as a percentage of segment sales in 4Q15.

Recently, the Fertilizer Affordability Index has seen an upward trend.

MAP (monoammonium phosphate) prices hit a low of $343 per metric ton in August but have been on an upward momentum since then.

Last week, the MAP prices in Brazil rose as much as 5.6% week-over-week to $394 per metric ton from $373 per metric ton a week ago.

There’s a handful of big players in the agricultural fertilizer industry. Setting up business requires huge capital, which makes for a high barrier to entry.

At the end of 2017, after receiving final regulatory approval for the merger, PotashCorp and Agrium combined into a new company called Nutrien (NTR).

Last week, the Fertilizer Affordability Index remained unchanged at 0.65x week-over-week. Fertilizers are more affordable than during the base year.

In this series, we’ll look at key NPK (nitrogen, phosphorous, and potassium) fertilizer prices last week.

MAP (monoammonium phosphate) is the second most used phosphate fertilizer after DAP (diammonium phosphate).

In Brazil, potash prices were flat at $281 per metric ton in the week ending January 12.

DAP (diammonium phosphate) prices have been rising lately.

Last week, DAP prices in Tampa rose the most, rising 1.7% week-over-week to $427 per metric ton, from $420 per metric ton.

Like DAP (diammonium phosphate) prices last week, MAP (monoammonium phosphate) prices were broadly flat to positive WoW (week-over-week) but stayed higher YoY (year-over-year).

Last week, the DAP prices in the NOLA region rose by 53 basis points to $344 per metric ton from $342 per metric ton.

In the week ending January 26, potash prices at the locations discussed below were broadly flat to positive and remained strong compared to levels observed a year ago.

Potash prices remained strong in the week ending January 19.

MAP prices In the earlier part of this series, we discussed that DAP (diammonium phosphate) prices were broadly mixed week-over-week, while they were much higher year-over-year. MAP (monoammonium phosphate) prices last week also followed the same trend. Let’s look at it below. Weekly movements Last week, MAP prices were broadly mixed week-over-week at the two locations […]

DAP (diammonium phosphate) prices have been moving higher from levels observed in late 2016 and early 2017.

Nineteen Wall Street analysts are covering CF Industries. They have a consensus mean rating of 2.7 on the stock with an overall “hold” recommendation as of January 10, 2018.

The potash fertilizer prices for both granular and standard grade were comfortably higher compared to the levels observed last year around the same week.

Phosphate prices Earlier in this series, we discussed phosphate prices in 2017 and what has driven prices down recently. We saw that excess capacity pushed down phosphate fertilizer (NANR) prices during the year. In this part, we’ll look at supply and demand trends for phosphate fertilizers in 2018. Supply and demand In 2017, overall global […]

MAP (monoammonium phosphate) prices have shown strength in recent weeks, moving higher to peak at $ $403 per metric ton in Brazil.

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Last week, which ended December 8, 2017, was broadly mixed for movements in DAP (diammonium phosphate) prices. Some regions saw weekly gains, and others moved sideways to negative.

Potash prices Potash prices remained firm for the week ending December 1. In most of the regions discussed below, the weekly prices of potash fertilizers were flat to positive. Weekly movements Last week, the granular potash prices in the Cornbelt region of the US (MOO) rose ~1.2% week-over-week to $234 per metric ton from $231 […]

The prices for DAP (diammonium phosphate) in most of the regions of the world saw positive momentum last week.

The potash prices in the Cornbelt region were flat at $231 per metric ton. It was the sixth consecutive week that potash prices were mostly unchanged.

Last week was broadly flat for potash prices in the three locations discussed below.

Last week, surprisingly, the prices for DAP (diammonium phosphate) saw positive momentum week-over-week.

In 3Q17, Mosaic (MOS) reported sales growth of ~2% YoY (year-over-year) to $2 billion, which grew from $1.95 billion in 3Q16.

India is another major market for NPK (nitrogen, phosphate, and potash) fertilizers. The country is partly self-sufficient in nitrogen fertilizers.

Among the three NPK (nitrogen, phosphate, and potash) fertilizers, phosphate fertilizers have had the worst recovery.

In recent months, MAP prices in Brazil have been on a downward trajectory. However, MAP prices appear to have found firmness in recent weeks.

The market environment for potash has seen a better recovery than nitrogen and phosphate fertilizers have seen.

Given the growth in potash shipments and the increase in price realization, it’s natural that the margins of potash producers improved YoY in 2Q17.

PotashCorp’s (POT) phosphate segment contributed almost a fourth of overall sales for 2Q17. Sales were driven by shipments and price realizations.