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A Look at CenturyLink’s Dividend Yield and Outlook
CenturyLink (CTL) stock was at $13.16 on December 24. This is down 0.23% from the previous session. However, CenturyLink generates robust free cash flow.
Why Powell Didn’t Cut Interest Rates
The Fed left the federal funds rate unchanged at 1.5%–1.75% yesterday, as expected. Furthermore, the interest rate could remain the same in 2020.
How Trump Could Be Affected by New Economic Data
A couple of key data points relating to the US economy were released on October 24. These releases may not bode well for President Trump’s reelection.
Can Investors Expect a ‘Black Monday’ Tomorrow?
Tech and semiconductor stocks have significant exposure to China during this trade war. Investors should expect these stocks to trade lower on Monday.
Which FAANG Stock Will Sit on the Iron Throne?
With earnings around the corner, which FAANG stock will perform the best?
You Really Want To Be Buying Apple Now?
It’s not like Apple (AAPL) is super expensive on the face of it…
Welcome (Back) To the Stock Market Clown Show
With the major indices pushing higher and higher, we need to again look at whether any new money should be put to work here.
Sell or Short Deckers, Cintas, and Garmin NOW
Don’t sell all of your stocks and head for the hills, but do add some shorts to the group or at least sell these silly stocks that lifted all boats.
Where US Crude Oil Could Be Next Week
On February 7, US crude oil’s implied volatility was 31.4%, which was ~10% below its 15-day average.
Have US Equity Indexes Made Oil’s Fall Sharper?
The Technology Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLK) rose 2%. XLK was the outperformer among sector-based SPDR ETFs.
Will Natural Gas Rise from Almost a Ten-Month Low?
On February 5, natural gas March futures rose 0.1% and settled at $2.66 per MMBtu—the second-lowest closing level since April 19.
Will US Crude Oil Maintain the $54 Level on February 5?
On February 4, US crude oil prices fell 1.3% and settled at $54.56 per barrel. US crude oil active futures made an intraday high of $55.75.
Natural Gas Is Heading for More than a Four-Month Low
On January 30, at 6:05 AM EST, natural gas March futures fell 1.7% from the last closing level.
Oil Might Feel Pressure from US-China Trade Talks on January 28
Between January 18 and January 25, US crude oil March futures fell 0.6% and closed at $53.69 despite a fall in the US dollar.
Natural Gas Prices: What Could Happen on January 24?
On January 24, at 5:39 AM EST, natural gas prices have risen 1.7% from the last closing level.
US Oil Production Growth Might Slow Faster than Expected
The oil rig count could keep rising until at least March. By the second quarter, US crude oil production growth might slow down.
Why Natural Gas Has Fallen 10% on January 22
On January 22, natural gas February futures fell to an intraday low of $3.13 per MMBtu, which is ~10% below the last closing level.
What Does the IEA Think about the Oil Market?
On January 17, US crude oil March futures fell 0.5% and settled at $52.36 per barrel. In the trailing week, US crude oil prices fell 1%.
Is the Sharp Rise in Natural Gas Sustainable?
On January 16, at 7:37 AM EST, natural gas prices have risen by 1.7 cents from the last closing level.
EIA Inventory Data Might Concern Oil Bulls
In the week ending January 4, US crude oil inventories were 8% higher than their five-year average—the same as the previous week.
Oil Traders: Goldman Sachs Expects a Slowdown
On January 14, US crude oil February futures fell 2.1% and settled at $50.51 per barrel. The Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLE) fell 0.2%.
Where US Crude Oil Might Head Next Week
On January 10, US crude oil’s implied volatility was 40%, which was ~25% below its 15-day average.
Broader Market Might Have Pushed Oil Higher
On January 3–10, XLE rose 7.7%—the third-largest gainer among the SPDR ETFs that break the broad market into subsectors.
Will Natural Gas Stay above $3?
On January 8, natural gas February futures rose 0.8% and settled at $2.96 per million British thermal units.
Falling Inventories Didn’t Help Oil’s Rise
Since the latest EIA (U.S. Energy Information Administration) data were released on January 4, US crude oil February futures have risen 1.2%.
Oil: Famous Recession Indicator Might Be a Concern
On January 2, US crude oil active futures settled at $46.54 per barrel—2.5% higher than the last closing level due to short covering.
What Might Spook Natural Gas in Early 2019?
On December 31, natural gas February futures fell 11% and settled at $2.94 per million British thermal units.
A Large Fall in EIA Data Might Help Oil Prices to Rise
In the week ending on December 21, US crude oil inventories were 7% higher than their five-year average—unchanged from the previous week.
Oil: 2018 Might Be the Worst Year since 2016
So far in 2018, US crude oil prices have fallen 25%. Crude oil prices are in the red on a year-to-date basis for the first time since 2016.
What’s Hindering Natural Gas’s Rise?
On December 24, natural gas February futures fell 8.7% and settled at $3.42 per million British thermal units.
Will the Rebound in Oil Prices Be Short-Lived?
On December 26, US crude oil active futures settled at $46.22 per barrel—8.7% higher than the lowest closing level since June 21, 2017.
Oil’s Disaster: What Can Investors Expect?
On December 20, US crude oil February futures fell 4.8% and settled at $45.88 per barrel—the smallest closing level since July 21, 2017.
Analyzing the Energy Sector Last Week
On December 7–14, US equity indexes ended in the red. Last week, IVOO, SPY, and DIA fell 2.7%, 1.3%, and 1.2%, respectively.
US Equity Indexes and Oil Diverged
On December 6–13, XLE fell 1.4%—the fourth-lowest decline among the SPDR ETFs that break the broad market into subsectors.
China’s Economic Data Might Drag Oil Prices
On December 14, China reported the November industrial output growth at 5.4% on a year-over-year basis—the lowest growth since early 2016.
Will Trade Based on Buying Natural Gas and Selling Oil Unwind?
On December 11, natural gas January futures fell 3% and settled at $4.41 per million British thermal units.
Bank of America Eyes Oil at $70 in 2019
Bank of America Merrill Lynch (BAC) expects Brent crude oil to average ~$70 per barrel in 2019, according to a CNBC report.
Are the Cuts by OPEC and Non-OPEC Countries Failing to Boost Oil?
On December 10, US crude oil January futures fell 3.1% and settled at $51 per barrel.
Why Are Oil and Equity Indexes Diverging?
Last week, the S&P Mid-Cap 400 (IVOO), the S&P 500 (SPY), and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DIA) fell 5.2%, 4.6%, and 4.5%, respectively.
Key Price Points for US Crude Oil after OPEC’s Decision
On December 6, US crude oil’s implied volatility was 48.1%, which was 1.5% above its 15-day average.
OPEC’s Cut: How Long Oil’s U-Turn Might Continue
On December 6, US crude oil January futures fell 2.6% and settled at $51.49 per barrel. OPEC is waiting for Russia’s nod.
Which Oil-Weighted Stocks Might Be Most Affected by OPEC Meeting?
On December 5, US crude oil January futures fell 0.7% and closed at $52.89 per barrel.
Russia’s Production Cut Decision Could Make or Break Oil Prices
OPEC members have provisionally decided to implement production cuts but are waiting for Russia to agree to a cut.
What Caused the Upside in Natural Gas Prices?
On December 4, natural gas January futures rose 2.7% and settled at $4.457 per million British thermal units.
Goldman Sachs: Oil Looks Extremely Attractive
According to a CNBC report on November 26, analysts at Goldman Sachs (GS) think oil is extremely attractive at the current levels.
Why Oil Might Be Troubling Wall Street
On November 15–21, US equity indexes had the following correlations with US crude oil January futures.
Top Investment Banks Staying Cautious on Oil: Your Move?
According to J.P. Morgan (JPM), Brent crude oil might average $10.5 per barrel less than its earlier forecast of $83.50 per barrel in 2019.
Mark Fisher: Oil’s Fall Is Over
In an interview with CNBC on November 14, Mark Fisher, a famous energy trader, said that the “worst is over” for crude oil.
US Crude Oil below $60 Might Harm Oil-Weighted Stocks
On November 14, US crude oil December futures rose 1% and closed at $56.25 per barrel.
Natural Gas’s Multiyear Rise Might Not Be Stoppable
On November 13, natural gas December futures rose 8.3% and settled at $4.10 per MMBtu—the highest closing level since November 26, 2014.
Rising Inventories Spread Might Drag Oil Prices
In the week ending on November 2, US crude oil inventories were 3% above their five-year average.
Election Over, Market Still Undecided
We know the nation is politically divided, and now the market is showing us its split personality as well.
Natural Gas Is near a Nine-Month High: What’s Next?
On November 6, natural gas December futures fell 0.3% from a nine-month high and settled at $3.56 per MMBtu.
US Crude Oil Is 3.1% Away from a Bear Market
On November 5, US crude oil December futures fell 0.1% and settled at $63.1 per barrel—the lowest closing level since April 6.
Why Are Energy ETFs Bleeding
On October 19–26, US equity indexes ended in the red. Last week, DIA, SPY, and IVOO fell 3%, 3.9%, and 4.1%, respectively.
Saudi Arabia: US Crude Oil Might Drift Lower
On October 23, Saudi Arabia announced that it will keep fulfilling customers’ oil demand, which might have opened the way for lower oil prices.
Geopolitical Turmoil: US Crude Oil Might Stay near to $70
On October 12–19, US crude oil December futures fell 2.7% and closed at $69.28 per barrel on October 19.
Oil-Weighted Stocks at Maximum Risk, Oil Declines
On October 17, US crude oil November futures fell 3% and closed at $69.75 per barrel—below $70 for the first time since September 18.
Oil Prices Might Stay Range Bound
According to the EIA’s report, US crude oil production from major US shale regions could reach 7.7 MMbpd in November.
Will US Crude Oil Erase Last Week’s Losses?
On October 5–12, US crude oil November futures fell 4% and closed at $71.34 per barrel on October 12.
Gold, Miners Have Surged on the Market Rout—What’s the Upside?
Gold prices have failed to draw a bid in 2018 despite many market uncertainties, including trade tensions and other geopolitical concerns.
Oil Might Have Impacted the Fall in Equity Indexes
In the trailing week, the Utilities Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLU) rose 0.4%—the only gainer on our list.
Oil Prices: Analyzing the IEA’s Oil Market Report
On October 12, the IEA released its Oil Market Report. In the report, the IEA cut oil’s demand growth forecast.
CPI Underwhelms Today: Will the Market Heave a Sigh of Relief?
The US consumer price index (or CPI) for September was released today at 8:30 AM EST. Inflation numbers were weaker-than-expected.
Does the Sell-Off Imply Market Repositioning for Lower Growth?
The Dow Jones Industrial Average Index tumbled more than 800 points yesterday as Treasury yields continued their upward march.
Market Might Be Setting the Stage for a Bigger Crash
Avoid the market trap In the previous part of this series, we discussed why investors shouldn’t fall prey to a minor market bounce back and enter long positions. Investors should remember that market rallies often witness downside corrections followed by a rally extension. In similar fashion, the market sell-off could be followed by a minor bounce […]
Minor Market Rebounds Could Be a Trap
In the auto industry, Ferrari (RACE) and Fiat Chrysler (FCAU) fell 8.8% and 5.3%, respectively, on October 10.
Tech ETFs Saw Major Impact on October 10
On October 10, Wall Street had its worst day in eight months. The sell-off was driven by investor concerns about rising interest rates.
US Equities Down on Rising Rate Fears: Watch Out for CPI Next
Increasing interest rates spooked investors again today as US stocks dropped sharply amid rising Treasury yields.
Support Levels to Watch in the S&P 500 as the Sell-Off Continues
As of 12:30 PM EDT on October 10, the S&P 500 Index has fallen 1.4%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average has fallen 1.4%.
Will Equity Valuations Pass the Stress Test of Rising Bond Yields?
For the last few days, the bond markets have seen sell-offs due to stronger-than-expected economic data and hawkish comments from the Federal Reserve.
Dalio Predicts Weaker Dollar due to Budget Deficit Financing
The White House has acknowledged that the deficit is growing faster than it had expected.
Are Natural Gas Bulls Betting on Hurricane Michael?
On October 9, natural gas November futures were almost unchanged and settled at $3.27 per MMBtu.
IMF Cuts Global Growth Forecast: Will Oil Prices Fall?
The downward revision of the global economic growth forecast could impact oil prices negatively, as oil is a growth-driven asset.
Will the Sharp Sell-Off in Europe and China Impact Oil Prices?
On September 28–October 5, US crude oil November futures rose 1.5% and closed at $74.34 per barrel on October 5.
Is the Current Sell-Off a Blip—or the Start of a Downtrend?
Whether the recent sell-off in the bond and stock markets is just a blip or the beginning of a sustained downward rally will depend on the upcoming US economic data.
Is the Market Worried about an Overheating US Economy?
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s speech did little to assuage investors’ concerns regarding the overheating of the US economy.
Sell-Off in US Stocks as US Treasury Yields Soar
On October 3, US bond yields (BND) soared due to a bond sell-off. The sell-off continued on October 4, though at a slower pace.
US Unemployment at 49-Year Low: How Did the Markets React?
The US jobs report for September was released on October 5. September’s unemployment rate is the lowest level in the last 49 years.
Amazon’s Hike Could Increase the US Economy’s Wage Growth
Amazon (AMZN) announced that it will increase the minimum wage for its US workers to $15 per hour starting next month.
Look for These Clues in the September Jobs Report
The Department of Labor is scheduled to release the September figures for the US (VTI) employment situation on October 5.
EIA Data: Will Oil Bulls Lose Hope for Another Multiyear High?
The EIA reported a rise of 8 MMbbls (million barrels) in US crude oil inventories to 404 MMbbls for the week ended September 28.
Alunorte Shutdown: Norsk Hydro’s Pain Is Alcoa’s Gain
Norsk Hydro (NHYDY) has announced a production halt at its Alunorte alumina refinery in Brazil.
Why Investors Should Brace for a Protracted Trade War
The US-China trade war has reached the next level. The US tariffs on $200 billion worth of Chinese goods went into effect on September 24.
Citi: Emerging Market Might Alarm Oil’s Demand Growth
Edward Morse, Citi Research’s global head of commodities, said that oil’s demand growth could decrease by 100,000 barrels per day in 2019.
When Will Fed Tightening Start to Hurt the US Economy?
Fed chair Jerome Powell said US companies are becoming more worried about the impact of tariffs and trade wars.
Why the US Markets Fell after Fed Chair Powell’s Speech
The US stock markets turned negative before the market closed yesterday after fully assessing Fed chair Jerome Powell’s speech.
Fed Raises Interest Rates, Hints at Three Hikes in 2019
As widely expected, the Federal Reserve increased the interest rate (TLT) yesterday by 25 basis points to 2%–2.25%.
Natural Gas Reached an Eight-Month High: What’s Next?
On September 25, natural gas active futures were 6.9%, 7.1%, 6.7%, and 8% above their 20-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages.
How US Crude Oil Inventory Data Affects Oil Prices
In the week ended September 14, US crude oil inventories were 3% below their five-year average and flat from the week prior.
Everyone Wants a Piece of the Thriving Steel Industry Pie
The US steel industry has seen an increase in profitability this year as President Trump’s Section 232 tariffs have raised US steel prices.
The Big Push for Oil this Year
Between September 14 and 21, US crude oil November futures rose 2.9% and closed at $70.78 per barrel. Let’s take a closer look.
Is Oil Pushing Wall Street Higher?
On September 13–20, XLE rose 1.7%—the third-highest gainer among the SPDR ETFs that break the broad market into subsectors.
How Analysts View Boeing after Its August Order Boom
Boeing’s consensus-12-month target price is $412.6, which indicates a 15.9% return potential as of the September 17 closing of $356.
Natural Gas Bears Might Enjoy a Short Position from This High
On September 18, natural gas October futures rose 4.2% and settled at $2.933 per MMBtu (million British thermal units).
Investors Can’t Get Enough of FAANG+BAT, the Most-Crowded Trade
It seems like fund managers can’t get enough of technology stocks. They continue to invest in the so-called FAANG+BAT stocks.
Is the Yield Spread Signaling Trouble for the Oil Market?
On September 17, US crude oil October futures fell just 0.1% and settled at $68.91 per barrel.
Is Oil Boosting Equity Indexes?
Between September 7 and 14, US equity indexes rose.
Could Trade Tension Support the US Dollar Again?
The US dollar (UUP) made a comeback on September 14 after reports suggested that Donald Trump is planning to impose tariffs on Chinese goods worth $200 billion, despite trade talks.
Could China Disrupt US Supply Chains in Retaliation?
Amid the US-China (MCHI) trade tension, investors should note that bilateral trade between the countries is lopsided—China imports far fewer goods from the United States than it exports.