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Why Goldman Sachs Has Revised Its Gold Forecast Higher
Goldman Sachs (GS) has long been bullish on gold. In March 2018, the bank turned positive on gold (IAU) for the first time in more than five years. It’s since been advising investors to turn defensive due to its forecast of increased risk, recommending that investors go for high-quality stocks and gold.
Strong Growth and Muted Inflation: How Will the Fed React?
While the markets aren’t expecting any changes in rates following the meeting, they’re keenly awaiting the Fed’s strategy to deal with strong economic growth accompanied by low inflation (TIP).
Do Strong Growth and Weak Inflation Make a Case for a Lower Rate?
The US Bureau of Economic Analysis released its personal consumption expenditure (or PCE) price index today. The PCE index is the Federal Reserve’s preferred gauge of inflation.
What Fund Managers Think about Growth and a Possible Recession
According to the Bank of America Merrill Lynch survey for April, 53% of fund managers don’t see the Fed hiking interest rates again in this cycle.
Gundlach’s Advice to Investors during 2020 Elections
In terms of bonds (BND) (AGG), Gundlach has time and again mentioned that there is high-grade corporate debt.
Gundlach Predicts What the Next Downturn Will Look Like
Jeffrey Gundlach believes that if the equities do well this year, emerging market equities will do better than US stocks (SPY) (DIA).
What Does Gundlach Have to Say about the Fed’s Next Moves?
As far as the Fed’s next moves are concerned, Gundlach said that if the market forces are allowed to prevail, interest rates should go up even in the next downturn.
Strong Economy and a Rate Cut: Can Trump Have It Both Ways?
Today, President Donald Trump told reporters, “Our country’s doing unbelievably well economically.”
Recession Risk: Why BMO, JPM, and GS Say ‘This Time It’s Different’
BMO chief economist Tom Porcelli discussed his take on the current yield inversion and the implications for the markets.
Markets Look at US-China Trade Talks as Slowdown Concerns Multiply
Today, another round of trade talks started in Beijing.
Could Falling US Consumer Confidence Mean a Recession Ahead?
The Conference Board updated the US consumer confidence index yesterday. The confidence index hit a 16-month low at 124.1 in March.
Could Gold Gain on Slowdown Concerns after a Soft Start to 2019?
Gold prices (GLD) started 2019 on a relatively soft note. After a dismal fourth quarter, the stock markets have recovered remarkably in 2019.
Morgan Stanley: ‘Get Defensive’ on Inverted Yield Curve
Morgan Stanley (MS) equity strategist Michael Wilson said that investors should “remain defensively positioned,” as last week’s yield curve inversion was bearish for stock markets (DIA) (IVV).
Could the Yield Curve Inversion Be a Self-Fulfilling Prophecy?
Another factor that added to the downward pressure on yields came after the Fed’s more-dovish-than-expected take on future rate hikes.
Modern Monetary Theory Might Have Takers, but Gundlach Isn’t One
Jeffrey Gundlach is very concerned about the increasing debt in the US economy.
Why Ray Dalio Is Less Worried about a US Recession Now
Prominent investor Ray Dalio, the founder of Bridgewater Associates, has been worried about the prospects of a US recession.
Why Central Banks Aren’t Listening to Warren Buffett on Gold
According to the gold demand trend for Q4 2018 released by the World Gold Council, central banks are on the biggest gold (GLD) buying spree in the last 50 years.
Why Gundlach Still Thinks We’re in a Bear Market
In December, Gundlach said, “I’m pretty sure this is a bear market.” He pointed out that even FAANG stocks—Facebook (FB), Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN), Netflix (NFLX), and Google (GOOGL)—were in or near a bear market.
What Investment Opportunities Does Gundlach See on the Horizon?
Jeffrey Gundlach’s mutual fund company, DoubleLine Capital, primarily invests in fixed income.
Where Druckenmiller Suggests Investing amid Market Fluctuation
Stanley Druckenmiller shared his views on markets and the economy with Bloomberg TV in December.
BAML Survey: Fund Managers Aren’t Optimistic about Recent Rally
Bank of America Merrill Lynch conducted a survey that polled 218 global investors with $625 billion in total assets under management between February 1 and February 7.
Central Banks Purchased the Most Gold in 50 Years in 2018
According to the gold demand trend released by the World Gold Council on January 31, annual gold demand increased by 4% in 2018.
Wage Growth Could Catch the Job Market’s Strong Fundamentals
Wage growth could be the most closely watched component of the US jobs report. Wage growth hasn’t consistently gone in the right direction.
The Next Downturn Is Worrying Dalio
Dalio said that the rates are almost zero in Europe (HEDJ) and Japan, and in the US (SPY) (DIA) rates are near 300 basis points, so the overall ability for the central banks to avert a downturn is limited.
Ray Dalio’s Take on China
Ray Dalio discussed his take on the slowdown in China and how it could impact worldwide growth at the World Economic Forum in Switzerland.
Fund Managers Most Concerned about Corporate Leverage Since 2009
As reported by CNBC, according to the Bank of America Merrill Lynch survey for January, hedge fund managers’ chief concern is corporate leverage.
January BAML Survey: Fund Managers Bearish, but No Recession Yet
The outlook on global growth is gloomy. A total of 60% of BAML’s survey respondents expect a slowdown in GDP gains in the next 12 months.
Gundlach: Why the Markets Have Been in Party Mode
Speaking to CNBC in December 2018, Jeffrey Gundlach said of the Federal Reserve, “I think they shouldn’t raise [rates] this week.”
Ray Dalio’s Advice Is to ‘Go Counter-Cyclical’
Ray Dalio thinks of the markets in the context of the economic machine, wherein cycles repeat themselves.
Dimon Says Market Overreacted and Predicts Decent Growth in 2019
Jamie Dimon believes that the recent market sell-off was an overreaction and that there isn’t a recession on the immediate horizon.
Could December’s Wage Growth Spook the Already Volatile Markets?
Wage growth will likely be the most closely watched component of the US (VOO) jobs report.
What Makes Goldman Sachs ‘Extremely Positive’ on Gold in 2019?
Goldman Sachs (GS) turned positive on gold (GLD) for the first time in more than five years back in March.
Why Wells Fargo Believes in Gold’s Upside Regardless of Stocks
The head of Real Asset Strategy at Wells Fargo, John LaForge, is bullish on metals but feels that gold (GLD) may lag behind other precious metals in 2019.
The Gold Equities Credit Suisse Favors in 2019
Credit Suisse (CS) is positive about gold prices (IAU) in 2019. The bank expects gold prices to average $1,275 per ounce in 2019 and $1,300 in 2020.
If This Is the Deep Panic Jim Paulsen Talked About, Start Buying
Jim Paulsen, The Leuthold Group’s chief investment strategist, thinks that after the ugly December for markets, investors’ panic is in the later stages.
How Investors Could Position for the Next Downturn
While talking to CNBC in September, Ray Dalio said that investors should get “more defensive” in the stock market, and warned that stocks’ upside looks limited.
Are Investors Unprepared for the Next Downturn?
As reported by CNBC, Ray Dalio feels that “the world by and large is leveraged long,” believing that the next bear market could be very painful as most are not prepared for it.
Jim Cramer Feels ‘Powerless,’ Tells Investors to Buy into Gold
Mad Money host Jim Cramer has been feeling “powerless” lately. He’s been quite vocal in insisting that the Fed should tread cautiously.
Like the Market, Jeffrey Gundlach Feels the Fed Erred Yesterday
Bond king” and DoubleLine CEO Jeffrey Gundlach has been quite vocal about the S&P 500 (SPY) heading for new lows.
This, Not the Rate Hike, Spooked the Markets Yesterday
After the Fed’s two-day meeting and rate hike, the markets were behaving as if something totally unexpected had happened.
Largest Ever One-Month Rotation into Bonds Signals Pessimism
Another concerning statistic that came to light during the Bank of America Merrill Lynch’s Fund Manager Survey was that investors made the largest ever one-month rotation into bonds (BND).
December BAML Survey: Fund Managers Turn Extremely Bearish
Bank of America Merrill Lynch conducted a survey that polled 243 global investors with $694 billion in total assets under management between December 7 and December 13.
Is Cash an Attractive Hideout in 2019? Goldman Sachs Believes So
Goldman Sachs (GS) says that this year has proven to be an average one for major asset classes.
Jeffrey Gundlach: S&P 500 Headed for More Lows, Fed Shouldn’t Hike
Talking to CNBC, “bond king” and DoubleLine CEO Jeffrey Gundlach said of the Federal Reserve, “I think they shouldn’t raise [rates] this week.”
Goldman Sachs and JPM Think Market Is Wrong on Rate Hike Outlook
Among investment banks, Goldman Sachs (GS) and J.P. Morgan (JPM) are most aggressive on the Fed’s rate hike outlook for 2019.
Retail Investors: Most Pessimism in More than Five Years
Currently, 49% of the investors expect the market (IVV) to fall in the next six months—the highest level of pessimism seen since April 2013.
October US Wage Growth Was Highest since 2009: Markets React
The US jobs report for October was released on November 2.
Fed Minutes: Markets Reel as Rates Are Poised to Rise Further
Yesterday, the Fed released the minutes from its September 25–26 meeting, at which it had increased the interest rate to 2%–2.25%.
Does the Sell-Off Imply Market Repositioning for Lower Growth?
The Dow Jones Industrial Average Index tumbled more than 800 points yesterday as Treasury yields continued their upward march.
What Bond Titans Gross and Gundlach Say about the Sell-Off
Jeffrey Gundlach, CEO of DoubleLine Capital, said yesterday that US Treasury yields (TLT) are likely to rise further.
Is the Current Sell-Off a Blip—or the Start of a Downtrend?
Whether the recent sell-off in the bond and stock markets is just a blip or the beginning of a sustained downward rally will depend on the upcoming US economic data.
US Unemployment at 49-Year Low: How Did the Markets React?
The US jobs report for September was released on October 5. September’s unemployment rate is the lowest level in the last 49 years.
One Way China Could Twist Trump’s Arm
There is one economic measure at China’s dispense that could force the Trump administration to back away from its aggressive trade policy.
Understanding the Changes to the FOMC’s June Dot Plot
The Fed’s June rate hike was priced in, but the markets were eagerly awaiting the updated Summary of Economic Projections report.
Why Did the US Federal Reserve Turn Hawkish at Its June Meeting?
As expected, the Federal Reserve increased the interest rate by 25 basis points after its June meeting, which concluded on June 13.
Could Unemployment Levels Reach a 58-Year Low?
According to the June JOLTS report, there were 6.7 million job openings in the US at the end of April.
Why Downward Revision of Q1 GDP Could Be a Good Sign
The Bureau of Economic Analysis released the second estimate for the first-quarter real GDP on May 30, changing real GDP to 2.2%.
Key Takeaways from May’s FOMC Meeting Minutes
The most recent FOMC meeting was on May 1–2. At the meeting, the range for the federal funds target rate was left unchanged.
How the US-China Trade Deal Could Hurt Global Markets
China invests the trade surplus it has with its trading partners in US government securities (GOVT).
When Do Global Fund Managers Expect the Next Recession to Come?
As per the latest BofAML Global Fund Manager survey released on May 15, growth expectations have slipped to the lowest level in the last two years.
Why Bond Yields Rose on Tuesday
The April retail sales report was released on May 15, and the surprise reaction to this report was an increase in bond (BND) yields across the board.
ADP: US Job Market Could Be Overheating
According to the ADP April National Employment Report, US private sector employment added 204,000 jobs in April.
Why 1Q18 Real GDP Estimate Raises Chance of 4th Rate Hike
The Bureau of Economic Analysis (or BEA) released its first estimate for 1Q18 real GDP on Friday.
Key Macro Events This Week
US markets (IJH) will be tracking ongoing corporate earnings. US markets could be influenced by the multiple economic reports scheduled this week.
Why Higher Yields Are Driving the US Dollar Higher
After months of moving in opposite directions, interest rates and the US dollar have moved in the same direction in recent weeks.
How Higher Bond Yields Could Affect Equity Markets
The current equity market bull run has stretched beyond nine years.
What Are the Risks from Higher Yields?
News about the US ten-year Treasury (IEF) breaching 3% has been in the headlines for the last few trading sessions.
Should We Start Ignoring the Yield Curve Inversion?
No financial indicator is foolproof, and the same can be said about the flattening yield curve in the current economic climate.
Fed Member Mester Says Flat Yield Curve Is Not a Sign of Weakness
Fed member Loretta Mester has sided with Fed Chair Jerome Powell that a flattening yield curve doesn’t signal a weakness.
This Fed Member Predicts Yield Curve Inversion by the End of 2018
Bullard said policymakers and bond market participants should remain cautious about the possibility of a yield curve inversion.
Why the Markets Are Worried about the Yield Curve
The spread, or the difference between the ten-year and two-year US Treasury bonds, has fallen below 50 bps for the first time since 2007.
FOMC Members Are More Confident about Inflation
The March FOMC meeting minutes indicated that the staff and FOMC members turned bullish on inflation.
What Drove Consumer Sentiment Index to 14-Year High?
The University of Michigan final consumer sentiment for March was reported at 101.7, up by 1.7 as compared to the final February reading of 99.7.
Why Buffett Believes Investing in Bonds Is a ‘Terrible Mistake’
The increasing demand for fixed income investments has pushed bond prices higher and yields lower, but investors have continued to pour money in.
Why Buffett Says Low-Yielding Bonds Are a Dumb Investment
In this annual letter to shareholders, Buffett explained a bet between him and his counterpart, Protege Partners, to fund a charity, Girls Inc. of Omaha.
Understanding Warren Buffett’s Warning to Bond Market Investors
In his latest shareholder letter, dated February 24, legendary investor Warren Buffett shared his views on financial markets.
Why Threats to Bond Markets Are Here to Stay
The real threat from rising rates is for bond markets.
What’s the Reason behind Surging Bond Yields?
The US bond market’s (BND) troubles escalated last week as inflation expectations continued to rise.
Why January Fed Meeting Could Impact Bond Markets
The US bond (BND) market remained largely unchanged in the week ended January 26, 2018, which was filled with surprises.
Are Bond Yields Set to Move Higher this Week?
The US Treasury is not able to issue any more debt until the debt ceiling is raised, which could increase the volatility in the bond markets.
Why the US Bond Market Moved Lower Last Week
The core CPI of 0.3% pushed the annual number up by 0.1% to 1.8%.
What Could Happen If China Wants Its Money Back?
If the Chinese government decides to sell its US debt (GOVT) holdings, it could lead to another possible global financial crisis.
Will Bond Yield Spreads Continue to Get Narrower?
The US bond (BND) markets returned to weakness last week after a minor bout of enthusiasm following the tax cut announcement.
What November Job Openings Say about US Economy
As per the January JOLTS report, there were 5.9 million job openings at the end of November.
What to Make of the Pullback in Bond Yields Last Week
The US FOMC December meeting minutes and the December employment data are key economic data releases that could impact markets this week.
Why Bond Market Yields Rose Last Week
The US bond (BND) markets witnessed surprising selling last week despite the passage of the tax reform bill.
A Double Dose of Tightening from the Fed in 2017
In its December monetary policy statement, the Fed projected three interest rate hikes in 2018 and three in 2019, depending on the incoming economic data.
Why Bond Market Speculators Increased Bullish Positions Last Week
The Federal Reserve lowered its unemployment rate projection to 3.9% for 2018 and raised its GDP forecast.
Why Bond Market Speculators Cut Bullish Positions Last Week
The US bond (BND) markets responded to the series of positive economic data releases from the US last week.
How We Could Avoid Yield Curve Inversion
Could yield curve inversion be avoided? St. Louis Fed president and CEO James Bullard gave a presentation at a regional economic briefing on December 1. Previously, we looked at the causes of yield curve inversion. In this part, we’ll review Bullard’s suggestions to avoid yield curve inversion. Bullard said that yield curve inversion could be avoided […]
Assessing the Risk of a Flattening Yield Curve
St. Louis Fed president and CEO James Bullard gave a presentation at a regional economic briefing on December 1. Throughout this series, we’ll analyze Bullard’s take on the risks of an inverted yield curve.
How Will Tax Cuts Impact the Federal Deficit?
The report from the Joint Committee on Taxation included an estimate of budgetary deficits for 2018–2027. Tax reforms could have a limited impact in 2018.
Tax Reform Bill: An Open Letter from 137 Economists
A few days before the US Senate approved its own version of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, 137 economists signed an open letter supporting the proposed bill.
Fed’s November Beige Book and Restrained Hiring Plans
The inability of employers to find suitable workers is leading to wage increases, especially in the professional, technical (XLK), and production (XLI) sectors.
Why the Fed’s Beige Book Is Relevant to Investors
The Beige Book, a source of data for the FOMC, gives investors in the bond and currency markets an idea of the future course of the Federal Reserve’s policy.
Why Bond Market Speculators Are Betting on Further Fall in Yields
The US bond (BND) market performance was mixed for the week ending December 1 as volatility increased.
When the United States Sneezes, Will the World Catch a Cold?
Williams suggested that the monetary policy framework should be designed considering the global scenario rather than central banks looking at their economies in isolation.
The Problem with the Current Interest Rates
With global economies progressing toward normalcy or the “new normal,” as Williams called it, central banks are moving toward normalizing policy by signaling interest rate hikes.
San Francisco Fed John Williams and Monetary Policy Challenges
John Williams, president and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, spoke on November 16, 2017, at the 2017 Asia Economic Policy Conference in San Francisco.
What Do Speculator Positions Tell Us about the Bond Markets?
The flattening of the US yield curve continued to keep bond market (BND) investors anxious last week.