Macroeconomic Analysis

We’ll explore whether record highs signal a top for equity markets or whether there’s still some room for growth in the current bull market.

The EIA expects less natural gas production at four key US shales by January 2017 compared to November 2016. It expects production to rise at three key US shales.

In the trailing 12-month period, net fund inflows were $2.3 billion. FDN’s fund flows in the trailing one week and trailing three months were -$105.7 million and $719.3 million, respectively.

Last Friday, President Donald Trump in a tweet called the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hikes a mistake.

When the Federal Reserve chair, Janet Yellen, testified to Congress on February 11, she affirmed the Fed’s consideration of negative interest rates. Under a negative interest rate scenario, investors would pay interest to the bank for holding their money.

Norfolk Southern’s (NSC) total intermodal traffic for the week ended April 30, 2016, declined by 7.6%, at nearly 73,000 containers and trailers. This compares with 79,000-plus units in the corresponding week of 2015.

Fears in the overall financial market about a Brexit, the possible exit of Britain from the European Union, have abated. This helped gold fall.

The US economy stalled in 2014 for several reasons, including seasonality, weather, strength of the dollar, the West Coast port strike, and the oil price slump.

The JPMorgan Intrepid European Fund’s assets were spread across 79 holdings as of December 2015.

In this series, we’ll take a look at the global final manufacturing PMIs and services PMIs for March 2017. These indicators help us understand the business condition of an economy.

Are markets upbeat on potential tax reforms? The markets (SPY) (IVV) surged last week with the announcement of a phenomenal update on the corporate tax cut. The S&P and Nasdaq Comp gained ~2% in the week ended February 10, 2017. The Trump administration’s proposed tax cut is likely to boost the economy, though analysts have […]

Fund flows in European equities (EFA) have expanded at a slower pace since 2011. Overall, they’ve grown at an average of 10% over the past three years.

In July 2015, investors poured approximately $23 billion in US ETFs with 50% of total investments in equity funds.

With manufacturing slowing, a reading of the Non-Manufacturing Index at an above-neutral level (56.9) may provide some relief to the US economy, which is highly dependent on the service sector for its economic growth.

On a year-over-year basis, China’s industrial production increased to 6.0% in May 2016. That’s the same pace as April.

The US saw positive fund flows in 2014 due to a relatively better economic position.

Farmers for Free Trade’s campaign was rolled out on September 12 with the slogan “Tariffs Hurt the Heartland.”

The US Dollar Index (UUP) managed to close in positive territory in the week ended February 8, 2018, after posting seven consecutive weekly losses.

BlackRock’s (BLK) retail business had assets under management (or AUM) of $542 billion as of March 31, 2016.

These economic concerns and monetary stimulus expectations have decreased the probability of an interest rate hike by the US Federal Reserve, and the chances of an interest rate hike in July dropped to zero.

Growing capacity is necessary for revenue growth. However, capacity expansion that exceeds demand growth can lead to declining utilization.

On August 13, 2015, US retail sales came in at expected levels for July. The increase in the retail sector was broad-based.

After starting the day on a weaker note on Wednesday, August 3, copper maintained the same sentiment throughout the day and declined lower.

The Technology Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLK) fell ~2.6% on March 22, 2018.

Gold and silver have seen trailing-five-day losses of 0.9% and 2.7%, respectively. The reason behind the fall in the precious metals is the buoyancy of the equity markets and the gains in the US dollar.

Last week, high-grade bond yields rose after upbeat US inflation and retail sales data raised the possibility of a rate hike by the year’s end.

Economic data from the United States on Tuesday, July 21, 2016, on home starts and building permits affected gold and other precious metals to a certain extent.

Canadian National recorded a 1.4% fall in total railcars in the week ended August 6, 2016, hauling ~57,000 railcars, compared to ~57,000 units one year ago.

The Eurozone’s Retail PMI (purchasing managers’ index) dipped to 50.4 in June from the 51.4 recorded in May.

With household spending gathering pace, it could be an important growth driver for the United Kingdom’s economic growth.

Exchange-traded fund investors added almost $552.6 million on average to the Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLF) in the last quarter. During the week ending September 25, the ETF witnessed outflows of $318.3 million.

In the week ending September 18, 2015, the US offshore rig count didn’t change. The offshore rig counts have averaged 33 over the past eight weeks.

2016 has been the worst start for the S&P 500 in the past eight years. US airlines also saw a bad start. The Dow Jones U.S. Airline Index has fallen 4% YTD.

The US energy sector was badly affected by the recent market sell-off in February 2018.

At 6:20 AM EST on September 14, the COMEX copper futures contract for December delivery was trading at $2.13 per pound—a gain of ~1.2%.

Chinese airlines have an advantage of having lower employee costs compared to their counterparts in the US. Operational efficiency of US airlines are comparatively higher.

While there is no denying that China (FXI) needs stimulus measures to kickstart its slowing economy, any propping up needs to be done in a way to avoid another debt-fueled crisis.

The Board’s Consumer Confidence Index rose to 92.6 in December—compared to 91 in November. For November, the index was revised from an initially reported value of 88.7.

Airline capacity utilization is measured using the passenger load factor, which is calculated by dividing traffic numbers by capacity numbers.

Things look fine for now Previously in this series, we discussed how mutual funds have a notably larger holding of corporate bonds at present than they had before the financial crisis of 2008. We’ve also talked about how regulatory changes could impact the role of banks as market makers. At the same time, the role […]