Keisha Bandz

On October 27, Antero Resources Corporation announced the initial public offering of Antero Midstream Partners LP.

MPLX crude pipelines are connected to supply hubs, and transport crude oil to Marathon Petroleum Corporation’s, or MPC’s, refineries and third parties.

ConocoPhillips’s (COP) total production volume in 2015 was 1,589 Mboe/d excluding Libya. This represents a 5% year-over-year growth after adjusting for asset dispositions and downtime.

Antero Resources’ current acreage is focused in the Marcellus Shale in West Virginia and the Utica Shale in Ohio.

Over the past 12 months the group has had mixed results.

Cheniere Energy, Inc.’s MLP company’s Sabine Pass liquefaction project has already secured four fixed-price, 20-year sales and purchase agreements with third parties.

Chevron Corporation is currently trading at EV-to-2014E EBITDA of 5x, has an approximately $239 billion market cap, and ~$245 billion enterprise value.

Spectra Energy Corp. (SE), headquartered in Houston, Texas, owns and operates a large and diversified portfolio of natural gas–related assets in North America.

ONEOK Partners (OKS) is a master limited partnership (or MLP) engaged in gathering, processing, storing, and transporting natural gas and natural gas liquids (or NGLs) in the U.S.

The Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLE) fell 0.66% in the week ended September 11. XLE tracks a diverse group of 45 of the largest American energy stocks in the S&P 500 Index (SPX).

ETFs (exchange-traded funds) have stock-like characteristics, while ETNs (exchange-traded notes) possess bond-like traits.

In terms of profitability, OXY has the highest profit margins amongst its peers at 24.2%. OXY also has one of the highest dividend yields at 2.85%.

Crack spreads usually fall when crude oil prices (USO) increase by more than product prices, or when product prices fall more than crude oil prices.

APU competes with Suburban Propane (SPH) and Ferrellgas Partners (FGP). APU is the country’s largest retail propane marketer, serving 2 million customers in all 50 states.

The EIA estimates that US crude oil production fell by 40,000 barrels per day to 9.096 million barrels per day in the week ending September 25.

Oasis Petroleum’s (OAS) stock has shown an uptrend for the most part of 2016. Its stock dipped between June 2016 and August 2016….

After Sanchez Energy’s (SN) 3Q16 earnings release on November 7, its stock rose ~2%.

Oasis Petroleum’s short interest ratio on September 13, 2016, was ~19.4%. Its short interest ratio on June 30, 2016, was 16.1%.

The divergence between WTI and Brent narrowed last week, as a slowdown in Cushing offered a glimmer of hope, causing WTI to rise.

Anadarko Petroleum reported adjusted earnings per share of -$0.50 in 4Q16. The company’s EPS were -$0.57 in 4Q15 and -$0.89 in 3Q16.

Analysts expected a natural gas inventory draw of 51 billion cubic feet (or Bcf) last week.

Apache’s stock has fallen almost 20% this year. However, since October, it has remained above approximately $47 on an average.

It’s expected distillate production will grow by the end of 2014. Refineries have built new facilities to produce more distillates than gasoline in anticipation of strong global demand growth.

On April 26, 2017, Apache stock was trading at $50.25. Apache’s average target price of $60.06 indicates a return of ~19.5% over the next 12 months.

Following Rice Energy’s (RICE) 1Q16 earnings, Wall Street analysts updated their target prices for the company for the next 12 months.

APA’s high target price stands at $73, its low target price stands at $42, and its median target price stands at $60.

Last week, natural gas prices didn’t increase despite forecasts for cooler weather. The forecast called for weather that would be cooler, but not cold enough to cause freezing temperatures.

Continental Resources’ (CLR) 1Q16 revenue fell by ~27% YoY (year-over-year), while its YoY revenue growth was around -37% in 1Q15 and about -59% in 4Q15.

On December 24, the US Energy Information Administration (or EIA) released its crude inventory report for the week ended December 19.

Hess’s (HES) key management objectives include taking several steps to counter lower commodity prices. These include capital and cost reductions.

Anadarko Petroleum’s (APC) total production in 3Q17 was 626 Mboepd. By comparison, its total production was 780 Mboepd in 3Q16.

Whiting Petroleum (WLL) stock rose 5.3% in the week ending December 29 from the previous week. However, the stock fell ~47.6% by the end of 2017.

Apache Corporation’s (APA) pro forma production volume in 1Q16 was 479,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day, a fall of 20% year-over-year.

Oasis Petroleum (OAS) is expected to release its fiscal 2Q16 earnings on August 3, 2016. Oasis Petroleum’s 2Q16 revenue estimates are lower than its revenue for the previous quarters.

Anadarko’s dividend yield Anadarko Petroleum (APC) announced a dividend of $0.05 per share on its common stock on May 10, 2017, payable in late June. Its trailing 12-month dividend payments are $0.20 per share, translating to a trailing yield of ~0.41%. The graph above shows how Anadarko’s dividend yield mostly followed an uptrend between 1Q14 […]

WTI (West Texas Intermediate) crude oil’s discount to Brent crude oil widened in the week ended August 14 over the previous week.

Hess (HES), Apache (APA), Devon Energy (DVN), and Marathon Oil (MRO) recorded lower 4Q15 revenues compared to the corresponding quarter in 2014.

Distillate demand and stock levels drive crude demand and crude prices. As a result, energy investors watch distillate inventories closely.

Despite COG’s recent negative stock market movement, the fact that it was able to hold its own and sustain significant levels of production should ensure that it maintains relatively high stock market returns.

AR has reduced its 2016 E&P (exploration and production) capex (capital expenditure) by 22% from 2015. The E&P budget for 2016 is $1.4 billion.

Chevron has cut spending on the Kitimat liquefied natural gas project (or LNG) in Canada due to falling crude prices.

Chesapeake Energy’s (CHK) 2016 debt management efforts included a combination of debt exchanges, open market repurchases, and equity-for-debt exchanges.

SPH noted that weather during this period in its service territories was normal and 9% colder than the prior year.

ConocoPhillips (COP) reported production of 1,437 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day (or Mboed) in 2Q17, a decline of 7% compared to 2Q16 production of 1,546 Mboed.

Chesapeake Energy’s implied volatility was ~51% on July 17, 2017. In comparison, its peers Noble Energy and Cabot Oil & Gas had implied volatilities of 36.5% and ~32%, respectively.

About 76% of the analysts covering Anadarko Petroleum (APC) have rated the stock a “buy,” and 21% have rated it a “hold.”

Concho Resources (CXO) will release its 4Q15 earnings on February 25, 2016. The estimate for 4Q15 revenue is ~$592.4 million. Revenue in 4Q14 was ~$692.4 million.

ConocoPhillips’s cash flow from operating activities this year has risen on a YoY basis. Its CFO for the first nine months of 2017 came to ~$4.6 billion.

Shares of USO trade on the NYSE like company stock. The fund lost ~5.3% in the week ended July 2.

Since the beginning of 2016, these producers have reduced debt by $1.4 billion, according to the EIA.

Hess Corporation has consistently been improving its performance since long before crude oil prices began crashing.

Natural gas prices directly affect earnings for gas-weighted producers such as Chesapeake Energy Corporation (CHK), EQT Corporation (EQT), Southwestern Energy Company (SWN), and Range Resources Corporation (RRC).

In the weeks leading up to Apache’s (APA) 1Q16 earnings release, Wall Street analysts have provided target prices for the next 12 months.

Crude oil represented 32% of Sanchez Energy’s (SN) total production in 2Q16. Its share as a percentage of Sanchez’s total production has fallen significantly since 2Q14.

In its weekly report on June 3, the EIA reported that US crude oil refinery inputs averaged ~16.4 MMbpd during the week ending May 29.

Antero Resources announced adjusted revenue of ~$783 million. AR’s 3Q16 revenue was ~37% higher than its 3Q15 revenue of ~$570 million.

Natural gas prices continued their declining trend from last week due to mild weather forecasts on the East Coast from December 13 through December 22.

APA’s high target price stands at $77. Its low target price is $42, and its median target price is ~$62.

Whiting Petroleum’s (WLL) 2Q17 EV-to-adjusted EBITDA ratio was ~6.5x. The enterprise value is the sum of a company’s market capitalization and net debt.

Following Oasis Petroleum’s (OAS) fiscal 4Q15 earnings release, OAS stock rose 3%. The stock has declined 71% year-over-year.

On June 11, Whiting Petroleum’s (WLL) short interest ratio (short interest as a percentage of float) was ~16%.

Natural gas prices started the week by falling ~2.4% to $3.67 MMBtu (million British thermal units) on Monday. This was the lowest close in 11 months.

In its weekly Petroleum Status Report released on Thursday, the EIA announced a decrease of 2.8 MMbbls in crude oil inventories for the week ending May 22.

Cabot Oil & Gas’s (COG) proved reserves have risen considerably since 2013. At the end of 2016, COG had proved reserves of ~8.6 Tcfe (trillion cubic feet equivalent).

Things were going pretty well for Mexico until 2004 when its oil production started declining. The decline was as a result of Cantarell’s—Mexico’s largest oilfield— depleting reserves.

Hess sees growth opportunities in the Bakken and Utica plays. It also has several growth projects offshore, including its North Malay Basin and its Stampede projects.

For 4Q17, Antero Resources (AR) is expected to report total production of 2,347 MMcfe/d (million cubic feet equivalent per day), which represents an 18% increase year-over-year.

On Friday, August 29, prices closed at $95.96 per barrel. On Tuesday, prices dropped to $92.88—a 3% decrease. On Wednesday, prices came back to $95.54 per barrel, again ~3% higher than the previous day’s market close.

Inventories provide a useful snapshot of distillate demand and supply trends, particularly near and during the winter months.

An increase in US power generation numbers is expected for the week ended October 30, 2015.

Record-high production levels have ensured that adequate supply of natural gas is available before the winter starts. The EIA anticipates that inventory levels will be 3,532 bcf by the end of this month.

Oasis Petroleum’s (OAS) total 1Q16 production volume was 50,315 boepd (barrels of oil equivalent per day). This represents a flattish year-over-year growth.

On September 8, 2017, the short interest as a percentage of float in Whiting Petroleum (WLL) stock, or its short interest ratio, was ~21.4%.

After EQT’s 3Q17 earnings release on October 26, its stock fell ~1.3%. The stock likely fell due to the 3Q17 revenue miss and fall in natural gas prices.

Hess’s (HES) stock started rapidly declining in the second half of 2015. This was due to weaker crude oil prices in the third and fourth quarters.

On February 22, 2018, Apache (APA) reported its 4Q17 and fiscal 2017 earnings. Apache reported revenues of ~$1.58 billion in 4Q17.

In this part, we’ll compare AR stock movements to movements in the broader market, crude oil prices, natural gas prices, and the US Dollar Index (or USDX).

Apache (APA) is expected to release its 2Q16 earnings on August 4, 2016. Its revenue estimate is $1.3 billion. That’s 33% lower than 2Q15 and 26% higher than 1Q16.

Valero Energy (VLO) released its fourth quarter earnings on January 29. The company reported a net income of $1.2 billion.

As 2015 came to a close, Concho Resources’ (CXO) stock started falling. CXO has fallen ~21% since February 2015.

The lower 48—representing the largest business segment in COP—consists of operations located in the U.S. lower 48 states plus Latin America.

Early last week, WTI crude oil had eased to close to $99 following Libya’s restarting exports from major ports and abating fears over supply disruptions in Iraq.

Chesapeake Energy will release its earnings on February 22 before the market opens. The company’s 4Q17 revenue estimate is ~$2.28 billion.

Chesapeake Energy (CHK) stock has been choppy in the last few weeks, and its stock has been following the movements in energy prices. Since the beginning of 2017, CHK stock has fallen 28%.

ConocoPhillips’s net debt-to-EBITDA was in the range of 0.6x–1.1x between 3Q13 and 4Q14. But in 2015, its net debt-to-EBITDA multiple started increasing.

Unlike most energy stocks, Cabot Oil & Gas (COG) stock has increased this year. Since January, Cabot Oil & Gas stock has risen ~10%.

Concho Resources and Pioneer Natural Resources have the most “buy” recommendations as compared to peers at 82% and 93%, respectively.

The average broker target price of $58.16 for Anadarko Petroleum (APC) implies a ~11% return in the next 12 months.

While retail investors don’t have easy access to the futures market, they can benefit from access to safer, low-cost avenues such as energy ETFs to bet on WTI crude prices.

Analysts had expected a decrease of 2.5 million barrels in crude inventories last week. We’ll discuss actual changes in the crude inventory in this series.

Following Hess’s (HES) 3Q16 earnings release on October 26, the company’s stock fell 1.2%. The stock has fallen ~14% YoY (year-over-year).

On December 8, the short interest as a percentage of float, or the short interest ratio, for Chesapeake Energy (CHK) stock was ~18.6%.

Chesapeake Energy’s total production volume in 1Q16 was 672.4 Mboepd . This represents a YoY rise of ~1%, adjusted for asset sales.

In its Short-Term Energy Outlook (or STEO) report, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (or EIA) forecasted higher natural gas prices this winter.

Chesapeake Energy’s 4Q15 EV-to-EBITDA multiple is in-line with its historical average of ~5.8x. The market value of its equity declined by ~71% year-over-year.

EQT’s (EQT) current implied volatility is 29%. While EQT’s peer Cabot Oil and Gas (COG) has a lower implied volatility of 21.7%, Chesapeake Energy (CHK) has a higher implied volatility of 52.6%.

The EIA expects 2015 production to touch 9.3 MMbbls/d—despite the low prices. In 2014, production averaged 8.6 MMbbls/d, according to the EIA’s estimates.

Pioneer kicked off full development in the Eagle Ford after signing a joint venture agreement with Reliance Industries (RIL) in June, 2010.

The weather is the major driver of natural gas prices, so investors can get an idea of how prices will likely move in the short term.

Plunging crude prices may cause crude production to decline.The EIA has scaled down its 2015 production growth forecast from 900,000 to 700,000 barrels.