Weekly Realist real estate roundup, August 12–16

Part 2
Weekly Realist real estate roundup, August 12–16 (Part 2 of 7)

10-year bond breaks out of its trading range on positive reports

Mortgage-backed securities are the starting point for all mortgage market pricing, and they’re the investment of choice for mortgage REITs 

When the Federal Reserve talks about buying mortgage-backed securities (MBS), it’s referring to the To-Be-Announced market (usually referred to as the TBA market). The TBA market allows loan originators to take individual loans and turn them into a homogeneous product that can be traded. TBAs settle once a month, and Fannie Mae loans are put into Fannie Mae securities. TBAs are broken out by coupon rate and settlement date. In the chart below, we’re looking at the Fannie Mae 4% coupon for September delivery. Followers of this weekly piece may notice that the coupon keeps changing. The 4% is known as a “cuspy coupon.” Because rates have risen, the current coupon Fannie Mae TBA is now 4%. Another week like the last one, and we’ll be looking at the 4.5s as current coupon.

Fannie Mae TBAEnlarge Graph

The TBA market is the basis for which your loan originator prices a loan. When the originator offers a loan to you (as a borrower), your rate is par, give or take any points you’re paying. Your originator will then sell the loan into a TBA. If you’re quoted a 4% mortgage rate with no points, the lender will fund your loan and then sell it for the current TBA price. In this case, the TBA closed at 102 18/32, which means your lender will make just over 2.5% before taking into account the cost of making the loan.

The Fed is the biggest buyer of TBA paper. Other buyers include sovereign wealth funds, countries with trade surpluses with the United States, and pension funds. TBAs are a completely “upstairs” market in that they don’t trade on an exchange and most trading is done “on the wire,” or over the phone.

The ten-year bond breaks out of its trading range

Last week, the ten-year bond yield broke out of its recent 2.57%-to-2.74% trading range on a couple of positive economic reports. The Initial Jobless Claims Report on Thursday sent yields to 2.76%, and then increasing unit labor costs drove the ten-year out another six basis points. The Treasury International Capital report also showed foreign investors were big sellers of U.S. securities. Some of the selling pressure could be coming from foreign investors who want to lighten up ahead of the Fed’s exit.

Implications for mortgage REITs

Mortgage REITs, such as Annaly (NLY), American Capital (AGNC), Capstead Mortgage (CMO), MFA Financial (MFA), and Hatteras Financial (HTS), are the biggest beneficiaries of quantitative easing, as quantitative easing helps keep REITs’ cost of funds low and they benefit from mark-to-market gains. This means their existing holdings of mortgage-backed securities are worth more as the TBA market rises. The downside is that interest margins compress going forward, because yield moves inversely with price. Also, as mortgage-backed securities rally, prepayments are likely to increase, which negatively affects mortgage REITs.

As a general rule, a lack of volatility is good for mortgage REITs because they hedge some of their interest rates risk. Increasing volatility in interest rates increases the cost of hedging. This is because as interest rates rise, the expected maturity of the bond increases, as there will be fewer prepayments. On the other hand, if interest rates fall, the maturity shortens due to higher prepayment risks. Mechanically, this means they must adjust their hedges and buy more protection when prices are high and sell more protection when prices are low. This “buy-high, sell-low” effect is called “negative convexity,” and it explains why Fannie Mae MBS yield so much more than Treasuries. While Fannie Mae mortgages don’t have an explicit government guarantee, they are “government-sponsored” and considered to be guaranteed by the government. That said, Ginnies and Fannies do trade at a spread to each other, with Ginnies trading at a premium because of their explicit government guarantee.

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