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Is Jagged Peak Energy’s Valuation Justified?
This year, Jagged Peak Energy (JAG), has been the third-weakest US upstream stock.
What’s COP’s Correlation with Crude Oil?
For the week ended March 29, ConocoPhillips’s stock price had shown a high correlation of ~62% with crude oil prices.
ConocoPhillips’s Stock Price Correlation with Crude Oil
As we saw in the previous part of this series, ConocoPhillips’s (COP) stock price decreased marginally, by ~0.2%, last week.
Understanding ConocoPhillips Stock’s Correlation with Crude Oil
ConocoPhillips’s stock performance As we saw in the previous part of this series, ConocoPhillips’s (COP) stock price rose ~2% in the week ended March 9, while crude oil (UWT) (SCO) (DWT) rose ~1%, suggesting that COP stock followed crude oil. In this part, we’ll try to quantify this correlation between COP stock and crude oil. ConocoPhillips’s stock […]
Crude Oil Prices versus ConocoPhillips Stock Last Week
As we saw in the previous part of this series, ConocoPhillips’s (COP) stock price has fallen significantly, more than 5% for the week ended March 2.
Drop in US Crude Oil Inventories Boosts Oil Prices
The EIA reported that US crude oil inventories decreased by 1.6 MMbbls (million barrels) to 420.5 MMbbls on February 9–16, 2018.
US Crude Oil Production Fell Slightly from Record High
US crude oil production decreased by 1,000 bpd to 10,270,000 bpd on February 9–16, 2018. However, production increased by 1,269,000 bpd or 14.1% YoY.
Will OPEC’s Production Cuts Offset Record Crude Oil Production?
US crude oil production increased by 20,000 bpd (barrels per day) to a record high of 10,271,000 bpd on February 2–9, 2018.
US Dollar Could Support Crude Oil Futures
March US crude oil futures rose 0.51% to $59.59 per barrel at 1:00 AM EST on February 13, 2018.
US Crude Oil Production Hit a New Record
The EIA estimates that US crude oil production increased by 332,000 bpd to a record high of 10,251,000 bpd on January 26–February 2, 2018.
Rise in US Crude Oil Inventories Pressures Crude Oil Futures
According to the EIA, US crude oil inventories increased by 1.9 MMbbls (million barrels) to 420.2 MMbbls on January 26–February 2, 2018.
Is US Dollar Stalling the Rally in Crude Oil Futures?
The US Dollar Index appreciated 0.6% to 89.19 on February 2, 2018. The dollar appreciated to due to better-than-expected US jobs data.
US Crude Oil Inventories Limit the Upside for Oil Prices
The EIA reported that US crude oil inventories increased by 6.8 MMbbls (million barrels) to 418.3 MMbbls on January 19–26, 2018.
Why OPEC’s Crude Oil Production Rose in January
A Reuters survey showed that OPEC’s crude oil production increased by 100,000 bpd (barrels per day) to 32.4 MMbpd (million barrels per day) in January 2018.
Hedge Funds Hold Record Net Long Positions in Crude Oil
Hedge funds’ net long position in WTI crude oil (UCO) futures and options contracts rose 2.9% to 496,111 for the week ending January 23, 2018.
US and OECD’s Crude Oil Inventories Could Impact Oil’s Price Rally
US crude oil inventories decreased by 1.1 MMbbls to 411.6 MMbbls on January 12–19, 2018. They also fell ~12% in 2017.
Is Global Oil Demand Key to Crude Oil Bulls?
The EIA estimates that global oil demand could average 100.1 MMbpd in 2018. Global oil demand could increase to 101.75 MMbpd in 2019.
OPEC Could Extend Crude Oil Production Cuts beyond 2018
March US crude oil futures contracts fell 0.9% to $65.56 per barrel on January 29, 2018. Brent oil futures fell 1.5% to $69.46 per barrel on the same day.
What Are the Key Resistance Levels for Crude Oil Futures?
March US crude oil futures were above their 100-day, 50-day, and 20-day moving averages on January 26, 2018—more bullish momentum for oil prices.
US Distillate Inventories Rose for the Eighth Time in 10 Weeks
US distillate inventories rose by 0.64 MMbbls (million barrels) to 139.8 MMbbls on January 12–19, 2018, according to the EIA.
Is US Crude Oil Production near an All-Time High?
US crude oil production rose by 128,000 bpd (barrels per day) or 1.3% to 9,878,000 bpd on January 12–19, 2018, according to the EIA.
Will the US Dollar and Inventories Impact Crude Oil Futures?
March US crude oil (DBO) (UWT) futures contracts increased 1.8% to $65.61 per barrel on January 24, 2018.
Cushing Inventories Hit January 2015 Low
A Bloomberg survey estimates that the crude oil inventories at Cushing could have declined by 2.3 MMbbls (million barrels) on January 12–19, 2018.
Restarting the Wintershall Oilfields in Libya Could Impact Oil Prices
On January 21, the NOC (National Oil Corporation) of Libya said that it would restart the Wintershall AG’s Sara oilfield. NOC is a state-owned oil company.
Why US Natural Gas Traders Are Tracking OPEC’s Production
Baker Hughes, a GE company, released its weekly US natural gas rigs report on January 19, 2018. Natural gas rigs increased by two to 189 on January 12–19.
US Distillate Inventories Fell for the Third Time in 10 Weeks
US distillate inventories fell by 3.8 MMbbls or 2.7% to 139.2 MMbbls on January 5–12, 2018. The inventories fell by 29.9 MMbbls or 18% from a year ago.
OPEC Upgraded US Crude Oil Production Figures for 2018
According to the EIA, US crude oil production increased by 258,000 bpd (barrels per day) to 9,750,000 bpd on January 5–12, 2018.
US Crude Oil Inventories Fell 10% in the Last 10 Weeks
The EIA reported that US crude oil inventories declined by 6.9 MMbbls (million barrels) or 1.6% to 412.7 MMbbls on January 5–12, 2018.
India’s Crude Oil Imports Hit a Record in 2017
India is the world’s third-largest crude oil consumer. Its oil imports hit a record in 2017. India’s crude oil imports rose 1.8% to 4.3 MMbpd in 2017.
US Dollar Hit a 3-Year Low: Good News for Crude Oil?
The US Dollar Index (UUP) fell 0.64% to 90.39 on January 16, 2018—the lowest level since December 2014.
Will US Oil Production Pressure Crude Oil Futures?
February WTI crude oil futures contracts fell 0.9% to $63.73 per barrel on January 16. Brent oil futures fell 1.6% to $69.15 per barrel on the same day.
Will Crude Oil Futures Rise or Fall This Week?
WTI crude oil (SCO) futures settled at $64.30 per barrel on January 12, 2018—the highest level since December 2014.
US Crude Oil Rigs Could Impact Crude Oil Prices in 2018
Baker Hughes released its US crude oil rigs report on January 12, 2018. It reported that US crude oil rigs increased by ten to 752 on January 5–12, 2018.
Cushing Inventories Fell 33% from the Peak
Analysts expect that Cushing crude oil inventories could have declined on January 5–12, 2018. A fall in Cushing inventories is bullish for oil prices.
Will Crude Oil Futures and Wall Street Extend Their Rally?
February WTI crude oil futures contracts rose 0.34% to $64.52 per barrel at 12:05 AM EST on January 16, 2018. It’s the highest level since December 2014.
US Distillate Inventories Rose for the Seventh Time in 8 Weeks
US distillate inventories rose by 4.2 MMbbls (million barrels) to 143.1 MMbbls between December 29, 2017, and January 5, 2018.
US Gasoline Inventories: More Concerns for Oil in 2018?
US gasoline inventories rose by 4.1 MMbbls (million barrels) to 237.3 MMbbls between December 29, 2017, and January 5, 2018.
EIA Upgraded Crude Oil Price Forecasts for 2018
The EIA forecast that Brent (BNO) crude oil would average $59.74 per barrel in 2018—4.3% higher than the previous estimates in December 2017.
US Gasoline Demand Is Significant for Crude Oil Bulls
According to the EIA, US gasoline demand fell by 835,000 bpd (barrels per day) or 8.8% to 8,650,000 bpd on December 22–29, 2017.
Crude Oil Futures: Next Important Resistance Level
WTI crude oil (UCO) futures closed at $62.01 per barrel on January 4, 2018—the highest level since December 2014. WTI prices rose ~12.4% in 2017.
Will Crude Oil Futures and S&P 500 Move in the Same Direction?
February US crude oil (UWT) (USL) futures contracts rose 0.5% to $61.73 per barrel on January 8. Prices are near the highest level since December 2014.
OPEC Could Pressure US Natural Gas Prices in 2018
US natural gas rigs rose 35% in the last 12 months, while US natural gas prices (UNG) fell 20% during this period.
Will US Crude Oil Production Undermine Crude Oil Futures?
According to the EIA, US crude oil production increased by 28,000 bpd (barrels per day) to 9,782,000 bpd on December 22–29, 2017.
Crude Oil Futures and Wall Street Extends the Rally
US crude oil futures contracts for February delivery also rose 0.6% to $62.01 per barrel on January 4, 2018—the highest settlement since December 2014.
OPEC’s Plan for a Production Cut Exit Strategy
OPEC’s crude oil production was steady at 32.47 MMbpd (million barrels per day) in December 2017, according to a Bloomberg survey.
Civil Unrest in Iran Could Impact Crude Oil Prices
On January 3, public protests continued for the sixth consecutive day in Iran. The protests against the government are due to weak economic conditions.
US Crude Oil Output Hit the Highest Level since May 1971
US crude output increased by 167,000 bpd to 9.64 MMbpd in October 2017—compared to the previous month. It was the highest level since May 1971.
Will US Crude Oil Futures Test a 3-Year High?
US crude oil (USO) futures hit $60.73 per barrel in early morning trade on January 2, 2018—the highest level since June 2015.
Crude Oil Prices Could Pressure US Natural Gas Prices in 2018
Baker Hughes released its US natural gas rig count report on December 29, 2017. Natural gas rigs fell by two or 1.1% to 182 on December 22–29, 2017.
Why Oil Traders Are Tracking US Gasoline Inventories
US gasoline inventories rose by 0.5 MMbbls (million barrels) or 0.3% to 228.3 MMbbls from December 15 to 22, 2017, per the EIA.
Is Iraq’s Crude Oil Production Bullish or Bearish for Oil Traders?
The EIA estimates that Iraq’s crude oil production fell by 35,000 bpd (barrels per day) to 4,320,000 bpd in November 2017 compared to the previous month.
Will Crude Oil Prices Start 2018 on a Positive Note?
A Reuters survey estimated that Brent and US crude oil prices could average $58.84 per barrel and $54.78 per barrel in 2018.
US Crude Oil Refinery Demand and Imports Impact Oil Prices
According to the EIA, US crude oil refinery demand rose by 111,000 bpd (barrels per day) to 17.1 MMbpd (million barrels per day) on December 8–15, 2017.
US Crude Oil Rig Count: Almost Flat in the Last 5 Weeks
Baker Hughes published its US crude oil rig report on December 22, 2017. The US crude oil rig count was flat at 747 on December 15–22, 2017.
US Gasoline Inventories: Bearish Driver for Crude Oil Futures
The EIA estimated that US gasoline inventories rose by 1.2 MMbbls (million barrels) to 227.7 MMbbls on December 8–15, 2017.
US Crude Oil Inventories Fell almost 19% from Their Peak
The EIA estimated that US crude oil inventories fell by 6.4 MMbbls (million barrels) or 1.5% to 436.4 MMbbls on December 8–15, 2017.
Libya’s Crude Oil Production Is near a 4-Year High
The EIA estimates that Libya’s crude oil production rose by 20,000 bpd (barrels per day) or 2.1% to 980,000 bpd in November 2017.
Will US Crude Oil Inventories Push Crude Oil Prices Higher?
US crude oil inventories fell 17.3% from their peak. So far, they have fallen 8.3% in 2017. Similarly, oil (DWT) (UCO) prices have risen ~9% in 2017.
EIA Upgrades US Natural Gas Production for 2018
US dry natural gas production was flat at 76.1 Bcf (billion cubic feet) per day on December 7–13, 2017, according to PointLogic.
US Natural Gas Rig Count Has Risen 33.3% in 2017
Baker Hughes estimates that the international natural gas rig count fell by 11 to 186 in November 2017—compared to the previous month.
US Distillate Inventories Fell for the First Time in 4 Weeks
US distillate inventories fell by 1.3 MMbbls (million barrels) to 128.1 MMbbls on December 1–8, 2017, according to the EIA.
US Crude Oil Production Has Risen 16% since July 2016
US crude oil production rose by 73,000 bpd (barrels per day) to 9,780,000 bpd on December 1–8, 2017, according to the EIA.
Why Anadarko Petroleum’s Net Debt Decreased in 2017
As of September 30, 2017, Anadarko Petroleum’s (APC) total debt stood at ~$15.6 billion. With ~$5.3 billion in cash and cash equivalents, its net debt is ~$10.3 billion at the end of 3Q17.
Why Occidental Petroleum Saw Its Debt Level Increase
As of September 30, 2017, Occidental Petroleum’s (OXY) total debt was ~$9.8 billion. With ~$1.8 billion in cash and cash equivalents, its net debt is ~$8 billion at the end of 3Q17.
Crude Oil Prices Could End 2017 on a High Note
A Reuters poll estimated that WTI crude oil (USL) prices could average $54.78 per barrel in 2018 after extending the production cuts.
Will the EIA Upgrade US Crude Oil Production Estimates?
Weekly US crude oil production hit 9,707,000 bpd for the week ending December 1, 2017—the highest level ever.
US Crude Oil Inventories Have Fallen 16% from Their Peak
US crude oil inventories fell by 5.6 MMbbls (million barrels) or 1.2% to 448.1 MMbbls on November 24–December 1, 2017, according to the EIA.
How Could US Tax Bill Affect Dollar and Crude Oil Prices?
The US Dollar Index advanced 0.1% to 92.8 last week. Consequently, it pressured oil prices during the week.
Relationship between US Distillate Inventories and Oil Prices
US distillate inventories rose by 2,747,000 barrels to 127.7 MMbbls (million barrels) on November 17–24, 2017. Inventories rose 2.2% week-over-week.
Will OPEC’s Meeting Disappoint Crude Oil Traders?
Goldman Sachs predicts that oil (USO) (DWT) prices might fall quickly if there’s any disappointing announcement in OPEC’s meeting.
How Long Can OPEC Extend the Production Cuts?
OPEC’s meeting will be held in Vienna on November 30, 2017. Crude oil (BNO) (DBO) (SCO) prices have risen 23% since September 2017.
Oil Prices: US Crude Oil Rigs Could Reverse the Trend
Baker Hughes estimated that US oil rig counts rose by nine to 747 on November 17–November 22, 2017. The rigs rose 1.2% week-over-week and 57.6% YoY.
Will OPEC’s Meeting Help Crude Oil Bulls or Bears?
OPEC’s meeting will be held on November 30, 2017. Reuters said that OPEC might extend the production cuts for nine more months.
OPEC’s Meeting Could Impact US Natural Gas Supply and Prices
PointLogic estimates that US natural gas production rose 0.4% to 75.9 Bcf (billion cubic feet) per day on November 16–22, 2017.
US Gasoline Demand Hit a Record in October 2017
According to the API, US gasoline demand averaged 9,300,000 bpd (barrels per day) in October 2017. It was the highest level ever.
US Crude Oil Production Could Hit a Record
US crude oil production hit a record 9,645,000 bpd (barrels per day) for the week ending November 10, 2017. Production was at the highest level since 1983.
Cushing Inventories Could Pressure WTI Crude Oil Futures
The EIA estimated that Cushing’s crude oil inventories fell by 1,504,000 barrels to 63 MMbbls (million barrels) on November 3–10, 2017.
Will US Crude Oil and Gas Rigs Pressure Natural Gas Futures?
Baker Hughes will publish its US crude oil and natural gas rig count report on November 17, 2017. The rigs were flat at 169 on November 3–10, 2017.
Will Russia and OPEC Help Crude Oil Bears?
December US crude oil (UWT) (DWT) (OIL) futures contracts rose 0.11% to $55.39 per barrel in electronic trading at 1:20 AM EST on November 16, 2017.
Analyzing US Crude Oil and Gasoline Inventories
US crude oil (USO) (UCO) futures contracts for December delivery fell 1.1% to $55.07 per barrel in electronic exchange at 1:15 AM EST on November 15, 2017.
US Crude Oil Rigs Rose the Most since June 2017
Baker Hughes released its weekly oil and gas rig count report on November 10. It estimated that US oil rig counts rose by nine to 738 on November 3–10.
What to Expect from Crude Oil Futures in November
December US crude oil futures contracts fell 0.25% and were trading at $56.62 per barrel in electronic trading at 1:22 AM EST on November 14, 2017.
OPEC’s Meeting Could Help Natural Gas Bears
PointLogic estimates that US dry natural gas production rose by 0.1 Bcf per day or 0.1% to 75.5 Bcf per day on November 2–8, 2017.
US Gasoline Demand Could Drive Crude Oil Prices Higher
The EIA estimates that weekly US gasoline demand rose by 147,000 bpd (barrels per day) to 9,461,000 bpd on October 20–27, 2017.
US Crude Oil Rigs Are near a 6-Month Low
On November 3, 2017, Baker Hughes published the US oil rig count report. It estimated that US oil rigs fell by eight to 729 on October 27–November 3, 2017.
Will Saudi Arabia Lead the Bull Market for Crude Oil Prices?
US crude oil futures (DWT) (USO) contracts for December delivery rose 3.1% to $57.35 per barrel on November 6, 2017.
What Could Impact Natural Gas Futures?
PointLogic estimates that US dry natural gas production rose by 0.9 Bcf (billion cubic feet) per day to 75.5 Bcf per day on October 26–November 1, 2017.
OPEC’s Crude Oil Production Fell in October
Reuters estimates that OPEC’s crude oil production fell by 80,000 bpd (barrels per day) to 32,780,000 bpd in October 2017—compared to the previous month.
US Crude Oil Inventories and Production Impact Crude Oil Prices
The market expects that US crude oil inventories could have fallen by 2.5 MMbbls (million barrels) on October 20–27, 2017.
Saudi Arabia and Russia Push Brent Crude Oil Futures
The WTI crude oil futures contracts for December delivery rose 0.5% to $54.15 per barrel on October 30, 2017. The prices are at an eight-month high.
US Crude Oil Rigs: Biggest Monthly Fall since May 2016
Baker Hughes released its weekly US oil rig count report on October 27, 2017. It reported that US oil rigs rose by one to 737 on October 20–27, 2017.
US Distillate Inventories Fell for the Seventh Time in 8 Weeks
US diesel futures fell on October 25, 2017, despite the massive fall in distillate inventories. They fell 0.2% to $1.81 per gallon on the same day.
Cushing Inventories Are Near 5-Month High: Bearish for Oil
Wall Street analysts expected that crude oil inventories at Cushing would rise between October 13, 2017, and October 20, 2017.
US Crude Oil Production Is near 4-Year Low
The EIA estimates that US crude oil production fell by 1,074,000 bpd (barrels per day) to 8,406,000 bpd on October 6–13, 2017.
US Crude Oil Inventories Are 21% above their Five-Year Average
The US Energy Information Administration (or EIA) released its “Weekly Petroleum Status Report” on October 12, 2017.
What Dennis Gartman Thinks about Crude Oil Prices
November WTI (West Texas Intermediate) crude oil futures’ moving averages suggest that crude oil prices could keep trading higher going forward.
US Crude Oil Rig Count Hit a 2-Week Low
Baker Hughes released its weekly US crude oil rig count report on October 6. The US crude oil rig count fell by two to 748 on September 29–October 6, 2017.
Libya’s Crude Oil Production: Bullish or Bearish for Oil Prices?
A Reuters survey estimates that Libya’s crude oil production rose by 50,000 bpd to 930,000 bpd in September 2017—compared to the previous month.
US Crude Oil Production Hit a 21-Month High
US crude oil production rose by 37,000 bpd to ~9.5 MMbpd on September 15–22, 2017. Production has risen by ~1.05 MMbpd or ~12.4% year-over-year.
US Crude Oil Rig Count Could Be Slower in 4Q17
On September 29, 2017, Baker Hughes (BHI) reported that the US crude oil rig count rose by six to 750 on September 22–29, 2017.