PowerShares DB US Dollar Bullish ETF

Earlier in the series, we discussed IBM’s (IBM) geographical revenues and the impact of currency fluctuations, especially the US dollar’s (UUP) impact on the company’s fiscal 4Q17 results.

The year-over-year revenue growth trend for Amazon’s International segment was falling until last quarter.

Gold (IAU) (GLD) prices usually have a strong negative correlation with the US dollar (UUP). Gold, like other commodities, is denominated in the dollar.

Cisco is expected to announce its fiscal 3Q15 earnings on May 13. Cisco expects its year-over-year revenue growth to be 3%–5% in the quarter.

The US economy stalled in 2014 for several reasons, including seasonality, weather, strength of the dollar, the West Coast port strike, and the oil price slump.

The US Dollar Index (UUP) managed to close in positive territory in the week ended February 8, 2018, after posting seven consecutive weekly losses.

As expected, the Federal Reserve increased the interest rate by 25 basis points after its June meeting, which concluded on June 13.

The dollar index (UUP) rallied about 22% between October 2014 to July 2016.

The US September manufacturing PMI (purchasing managers’ index) report indicated an improvement in US (QQQ) (IWM) business conditions.

In the past ten quarters including fiscal 1Q17, Oracle’s revenues have missed analyst expectations nine times.

Weak global demand and a strengthening dollar have affected oil prices.

In its July meeting, the Federal Open Market Committee decided to maintain its target range for the federal funds rate at 1%–1.25%, in line with the market’s expectations.

According to a Eurostat report, Eurozone fourth quarter economic growth for 2016 expanded to 0.5% as compared to the 0.4% improvement in the previous quarter.

A weaker euro could lead to inflation in Europe. The depreciation in the euro was initially due to the appreciation in the dollar.

In the current market scenario, the global markets (ACWI) (VTI) (VEU) are mainly driven by the monetary stimulus provided by the central banks.

Four days before the UK (EWU) decided to leave the European Union (VGK), Soros warned the markets of a “Black Friday” and a crash in the pound.

DJTI’s price-to-earnings ratio climbed from 15.7x at the start of 2013 to 20.2x at the end of 2014. This year, transportation stocks (IYT) have taken a hit, leading to multiple contractions.

A stronger dollar is a headwind for export-oriented stocks. The US economy is relatively robust.

Markets will remain focused on the ECB policy meeting scheduled for Thursday this week.

This article discusses the ways in which an improving economy is good for the dollar.

In calendar 2Q15, PC shipments fell globally by 9.50%. This situation is likely to continue through 2016 and isn’t likely to stabilize before 2017.

As earnings reports and analyst call transcripts show, many of the companies reporting sales misses cited the strong dollar as a contributing factor.

So now that the Fed rate liftoff has finally arrived, should you flee to market sidelines? If you can believe history, the answer is an emphatic no.

March WTI (West Texas Intermediate) crude oil (ERX) (IEZ) (USO) (PXI) futures contracts fell 1.6% and settled at $52.17 per barrel on February 7, 2017.

Many economists, like the Nobel Prize–winning Paul Krugman, believe that the Fed acted as a “white knight” in 2008, saving the global economy in the dire aftermath of the financial crisis.

IBM pointed to the strengthening US dollar for the decline in its revenues, which fell by 13.5% in fiscal 2Q15. On a constant currency basis, revenue only declined by 1%.

The US Dollar Index rose 0.4% to 101.4 on November 18, 2016—the highest level in the last 13 years. It also rose 4% in the last two weeks.

Groupon (GRPN) is pumping millions of dollars (UUP) into marketing and customer acquisition efforts as it seeks to conquer the North American daily deals market.

Gold prices (GLD) recorded their first weekly gain last week after six weeks of continued losses. What changed?

Over a good four decades, the S&P 500’s net profit margin has fallen notably when the economy was on the verge of, or already into, a recession.

Since the British Brexit referendum on June 23, 2016, the British pound (FXB) has been nervous.

WTI crude oil (USO) futures hit $58.95 per barrel on November 24, 2017—the highest level in nearly three years.

Asian currencies traded lower against the dollar ahead of the FOMC statement. The US dollar-Japanese yen currency pair rose by 0.80% at 6:00 AM EST on July 27.

The US dollar (UUP) (UDN) seemed to show mixed response to the Fed’s rate hike on March 15, as prices have reflected a downtrend so far in 2017.

The US Dollar Index fell 0.2% to 101.5 on November 25, 2016. However, it hit 102 on November 24, 2016—the highest level in nearly 14 years.

August US crude oil futures contracts rose 2.5% and closed at $46.04 per barrel on June 30. Brent crude oil futures rose and settled at $47.92 per barrel.

Crude oil prices fell due to the API’s bearish crude oil inventory report. Prices have been trading between $50 per barrel and $54 per barrel since January.

USCF OPEC’s decision to cut 1.2 mbd has already had a significant price effect, and compliance has already started. Production dropped 3% in December. At the moment, all eyes are on whether OPEC members will comply, and whether returning supply from Libya and Nigeria may offset any cuts OPEC has announced. The bigger wildcard is the U.S. It […]

September US crude oil (RYE) (VDE) (BNO) futures contracts rose 3.3% to $47.8 per barrel on July 25, 2017.

In 4Q16, US (SPY) (QQQ) (IVV) (VFINX) real GDP grew at an annual rate of 1.9% compared to a 3.5% rise in 3Q16.

Overall in 2017, the dollar index fell 9.8%.

The US Dollar Index (UUP) closed at 95.79 with a rise of 0.39% last week. This rise was a welcome relief for the dollar.

The US had a budget deficit of $215 billion in February 2018, the largest in six years.

Crude oil (USO) (IXC) (XES) was trading near a 20-month high on March 7. US crude oil prices posted their biggest one-day decline in the last 13 months.

US crude oil (DBO) (USL) (OIIL) July futures rose 5% between May 16 and May 23, 2017.

Red Hat (RHT), a leading Linux software and open-source provider, was the latest in the technology space to announce its fiscal 4Q16 earnings.

The FTSE 100 Index (UKX) fell ~3.4% for the week ended March 23, 2018, and closed at 6,921.94.

The federal funds rate is a tool that the Fed uses to control the interest rate in the economy. The rate has been close to zero for over six years.

Euro rallies to a 23-month peak Last week, the euro (FXE) closed at 1.17, appreciating by 1.7% against the US dollar (UUP). The currency has appreciated by more than 10% against the US dollar this year, making it one of the strongest developed market currencies. Improving economic conditions and a stable political climate turned the […]

In 4Q16, Cliffs’ cash costs of goods sold for APIO was $36.4 per ton, or 8% higher YoY.

The US dollar and crude oil (IEZ) (PXI) are usually inversely related. A rise in the US dollar makes crude oil more expensive for oil importers.

On Sunday, after the announcement of the French Presidential election exit polls, the euro jumped a near five-month high against the US dollar.

Brent crude oil futures closed at $57.54 per barrel on September 29, 2017. Some OPEC officials think that $60 per barrel for crude oil isn’t sustainable.

US crude oil futures contracts for May delivery rose 5.5% between March 28, 2017, and April 4, 2017. The US Dollar Index rose 0.9% during that period.

Looking at the performance of the major commodity-driven currencies on July 25, the Nigerian naira was the biggest casualty.

The Germany ZEW Economic Sentiment Index is at ten in August 2017—compared to 17.5 in July 2017. It didn’t meet the market’s expectation of 15.0.

In a currency war, the “beggar-thy-neighbor” strategy is about increasing the demand for a nation’s exports at the expense of other countries’ export share.

Recently, stocks of media companies such as 21st Century Fox (FOXA) were hammered. In fiscal 2015, the company had revenues of ~$29 billion, a 9% decrease from fiscal 2014.

The US Dollar Index fell ~0.13% to 93.89, and July WTI oil futures rose ~1.2% on June 5.

To provide a boost to its slowing economy, China cut its benchmark one-year lending rate for the fifth time in 2015. The PBoC slashed it by 25 basis points to 4.4%, effective October 24, 2015.

Between May 3 and May 10, 2017, natural gas (GASX) (FCG) (GASL) June futures rose 2%. The US dollar (UUP) (UDN) (USDU) rose 0.5% during that period.

Stanley Druckenmiller also sold his position in the iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (EEM).

WTI (West Texas Intermediate) crude oil futures contracts for September delivery rose 1.8% to $48.75 per barrel on July 26, 2017.

US crude oil futures contracts for June 2017 delivery fell 3.7% between May 2, and May 9, 2017, while the US Dollar Index rose 0.7%.

Gold prices have gone through a rough patch recently with prices closing near their seven-month lows.

The Mexican peso recently climbed in value after the Trump administration said that it would not exit NAFTA altogether.

From November 9–16, 2016, natural gas December futures rose 2.8%. The US Dollar Index rose 1.8% during that period.

US crude oil futures contracts for June delivery fell 6.2% between April 18, 2017, and April 25, 2017. Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index fell 0.7%.

WTI (West Texas Intermediate) crude oil (XLE)(XOP)(USO) futures contracts for September delivery rose 0.5% to $48.82 per barrel on August 11, 2017.

WTI crude oil prices have risen 9.4% since June 21, 2017. Brent and US crude oil prices are near a three-week high.

On a year-to-date basis, the dollar index has fallen nearly 9.5% as of August 2, 2017.

US crude oil (XLE) (XOP) (IEZ) futures contracts for September delivery fell 0.1% to $47.55 per barrel on August 15, 2017.

Twitter’s management changes came after its disastrous 1Q15 earnings. Twitter missed its own revenue growth estimate for 1Q15 and even lowered its outlook.

The recovery of oil prices in the latter half of 2016 has helped the Russian ruble to appreciate along with improved exports.

On April 13–20, 2018, US crude oil June futures rose 1.6% and settled at $68.4 per barrel on April 20. Last week, the US dollar rose 0.6%.

March US crude oil (DBO) (UWT) futures contracts increased 1.8% to $65.61 per barrel on January 24, 2018.

US crude oil (DBO) (USL) (OIIL) futures contracts for June 2017 delivery rose 3.7% between May 10 and May 17, 2017.

US crude oil (DBO) (USL) (OIIL) futures contracts for June 2017 delivery fell 3.8% between April 25, 2017, and May 2, 2017.

Teradata primarily generates revenues from data and analytics and marketing applications. Its core business is struggling, as data warehouses are increasingly moving toward the cloud.

The softness in the PC market is rumored to continue in 2015. This will dampen any prospects of a revival in Symantec’s Consumer Security Software business.

US crude oil (DBO) (USL) (OIIL) futures contracts for May delivery rose 4.6% between April 4, 2017, and April 11, 2017.

With the Federal Reserve’s rate hike decision in December 2016, the US dollar has strengthened, which could weaken the rand. In such a scenario, miners’ costs could fall.

The BOE (Bank of England) in its November meeting increased its benchmark interest rates from 0.25% to 0.50%.

Between April 26 and May 3, 2017, natural gas June futures fell 1.3%. The US dollar rose 0.2% during that period.

There is a persistent concern over valuations of US equity markets, especially tech stocks, which include FAANG stocks.

April WTI (West Texas Intermediate) crude oil (XLE) (XOP) (PXI) futures contracts fell 1.4% and settled at $47.72 per barrel on March 14, 2017.

The SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD) has fallen ~8.4% year-to-date and ~11.5% from its April peak.

US stocks appear unattractive despite the recent correction. A stronger dollar (UUP) and a slowing world has negatively affected large-cap earnings.

US crude oil futures contracts for June delivery fell 1.7% between April 11, 2017, and April 18, 2017. The US Dollar Index fell 1.2% during that period.

February 2017 WTI (West Texas Intermediate) crude oil (PXI) (ERX) (USL) (ERY) futures contracts rose 0.1% and settled at $53 per barrel on December 23, 2016.

In its latest fiscal 2Q15 earnings release, IBM stated that its cloud-computing revenue rose 50% on a YoY basis. It generated $8.7 billion in the last 12 months.

As per the 13Fs filed for the first quarter, hedge funds still seem to have confidence in gold’s price outlook.

US crude oil futures have risen 6% from the ten-month low on June 21, 2017. Futures have also risen 2% in the last month.

January WTI (West Texas Intermediate) crude oil futures contracts trading on NYMEX fell by 3.1% to $35.62 per barrel on Friday, December 11, 2015.

Goldman Sachs (GS) suggests crude oil prices could test $20 per barrel in a worst case scenario in 2016.

Investors should watch inflationary woes in Brazil. For the week ended March 15, the IPC-S consumer price index was at 1.49 against an expected 1.42.

A weaker dollar makes gold cheaper for other nations to purchase. It increases their demand for gold. Also, when the dollar starts to lose value, investors look for an investment to store value.

US crude oil (UCO) (USL) futures contracts for January delivery rose 0.7% and were trading at $58.4 per barrel at 1:02 AM EST on December 12, 2017.

Between April 19 and April 26, 2017, natural gas (GASX) (FCG) (GASL) June futures fell 0.2%. The US dollar (UUP) (UDN) (USDU) fell 0.7% during that period.

A country’s net exports measure the value of total exports less the value of its total imports. It’s positive if exports are larger in value than imports.