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China’s De-Dollarization amid Trade War: Gold’s Upside?
China continued buying gold for the tenth consecutive month in September. The country also continued its de-dollarization bid.
Trump, Trade War, Powell: More Upside for Gold Prices?
Gold hit a fresh six-year high on Friday as trade tensions between the US and China escalated. The SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) closed up 2%.
Trump Says Fed Should Cut Rates by 1%
Today, President Trump tweeted that he wants the Fed to cut the federal funds rate by “at least 100 basis points.” The Fed rates by 25 basis points in July.
The Dollar Is Strengthening: How Will It Affect Markets?
The US Dollar Index, which measures the strength of the dollar against a basket of other currencies, has risen 2.2% in the past month.
Trade War or Fed Policies: What’s Hurting Automakers?
US automakers have been hit hard lately. However, President Trump’s policies and the trade war had a greater impact on automakers than the Fed’s policies.
Gold Bucks Commodities’ Downtrend on Trade War Jitters
Gold prices received a boost after President Trump’s tweet that 10% duties would be levied on $300 billion of Chinese goods starting on September 1.
Will a Fed Rate Cut Today Trigger a Stock Market Rally?
The market and investors have been holding their breath for a Fed rate cut this year.
Why Mobius Says Investors Should Allocate at Least 10% to Gold
Gold prices have seen a change in fortunes over the last month or so.
Have Gold’s Fortunes Changed for Good after Hitting $1,400?
After remaining soft for the first five months of the year, gold prices (GLD) have seen a sudden turnaround since the end of May.
Is the End of the US Dollar’s Rally the Start of Gold’s Bull Run?
The US dollar’s weakness may be a major driver behind gold’s higher prices.
Key Catalysts to Watch as Gold Looks Beyond $1,400
Gold is outperforming stocks even when stock markets are making highs. The SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) has gained 8.7% in the last one month, and the VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX) has amplified that return by rising 21.1% in the same period.
Gold Prices Surpass $1,400 and Gold ETFs Surge
Gold futures registered their single largest one-day jump of 2.8% on June 20 following the Fed’s dovish stance at its June meeting. While the Fed kept rates unchanged, it hinted at future rate cuts if the conditions warrant them, which sent gold prices soaring.
Could Gold Be the Best Bet amid Uncertainty?
The overall investor sentiment has been bearish given the US-China trade tensions and deteriorating economic reports. In addition to bonds (BND), investors are also looking to gold due to its safe-haven appeal. Not only this, there are many other factors that are currently going in gold’s favor.
June’s ‘Most Crowded’ Trade Reflects Investors’ Risk-Off Mindset
According to the latest Bank of America Merrill Lynch survey, government bonds are the most crowded trade. It is the first time in the history of BAML that the preference for Treasuries has topped the list. The US government bonds were cited by 27% of the fund managers, topping long tech trade, which came at the second position.
A Perfect Storm for Gold: All Macro Drivers Align
Fed rate cuts Fed policymakers are set to meet on June 18 and 19. Whereas the market has not priced in a rate cut in June, at least two rate cuts are expected by the end of the year. Amid the overall slowdown, US employment had been a bright spot until last month’s jobs report showed fissures may be appearing in the […]
Paul Tudor Jones’s Strategy for Fed Rate Cuts
Paul Tudor Jones has told Bloomberg that he expects an aggressive but short period of rate cuts by the Fed, which is set to meet on June 18 and 19.
Weaker Jobs Reports Raises Odds of Fed Rate Cuts, Gold Rises
Gold has caught a bid in the last few days after being lukewarm for most of this year.
Wells Fargo Says Investors Should Look for Alternatives to Gold
Wells Fargo’s head of real asset strategy said that gold no longer looks attractive based on the way the metal has been behaving in response to recent economic events.
US Tech Stocks Regain Position as ‘Most Crowded Trade’ in May
According to the latest Bank of America Merrill Lynch survey, US tech was the most crowded space, displacing short European equities (HEDJ).
Why Is Bank of America Bullish on Gold?
Bank of America is overweight on precious metals in 2019. One of the key arguments that Bank of America has is “de-dollarization.”
JPMorgan Chase Expects Gold to Go Higher in 2019
JPMorgan Chase (JPM) thinks that gold prices (GLD) should go higher. Right now, the Fed is patient on rate hikes.
Shorting European Equities Is Crowded—Could It Mean a Reversal?
According to the latest Bank of America Merrill Lynch survey, shorting European equities has been the most crowded trade for two months in a row.
Gundlach Predicts What the Next Downturn Will Look Like
Jeffrey Gundlach believes that if the equities do well this year, emerging market equities will do better than US stocks (SPY) (DIA).
Could Iron Ore Gain from Vale’s Large Production Cut Expectation?
Vale’s (VALE) iron ore production came in at 101 million tons in the fourth quarter of 2018, an increase of 8.2% YoY (year-over-year).
This Is Fund Managers’ Most Crowded Trade in March
As with the biggest tail risk, the latest Bank of America Merrill Lynch Survey resulted in a new “most crowded trade” response as well.
These Assets Could Be Attractive If Fed Rethinks Inflation Course
The Federal Reserve’s two main objectives are stabilizing prices and maximizing employment.
Why Gundlach Thinks It’s Time to Be a Long-Term US Dollar Bear
During his “Highway to Hell” webcast, Jeffrey Gundlach put forth several arguments for a bearish long-term outlook for the US dollar (UUP).
Goldman Sachs: Why It’s a ‘Pound-the-Table Time’ to Buy Gold
Gold prices (GLD) fell by over 2.5% in the week ended March 1, their biggest weekly decline since August 2018.
JPM Likes Gold, as Fed Might Let Inflation Overshoot Target
The Federal Reserve has two main objectives: price stability and maximizing employment.
What’s the Most Crowded Trade Now?
For the first time in the history of the Bank of America Merrill Lynch Survey, “long” emerging markets (EEM) has been the most crowded trade for February.
Could Central Bank Buying Be a Major Driver for Gold in 2019?
In this article, we’ll see if central bank buying can drive gold demand in 2019 like it did in 2018.
What’s the Upside for Gold from the Fed’s Meeting This Week?
Gold prices rose ~1.4% to a seven-month high on January 25. Gold prices briefly breached the psychologically important $1,300 per ounce mark.
Why Gundlach and Einhorn Are Betting on Gold
Jeffrey Gundlach said during Barron’s 2019 Roundtable that “Gold and commodities broadly should benefit this year.”
What Will Drive Gold Prices in 2019?
2019 has started on a relatively soft note for gold prices.
Ray Dalio’s Take on China
Ray Dalio discussed his take on the slowdown in China and how it could impact worldwide growth at the World Economic Forum in Switzerland.
Gold Has a Soft Start in 2019: Could This Drive It Going Forward?
Gold prices have started 2019 on a relatively soft note. YTD (year-to-date), as of January 17, gold prices (GLD) have risen 0.7%.
Can the US Dollar Remain the Most Crowded Trade?
For the second straight month, the so-called FAANG and BAT stocks weren’t the most crowded trades.
Most of Gundlach’s 2018 Calls Were Spot On—What about 2019?
So-called bond king Jeffrey Gundlach, who is also the CEO of DoubleLine Capital, has made his predictions for 2019 on a variety of topics.
Could the US Dollar Work in Gold’s Favor in 2019?
Like the Fed’s policies, the strong US dollar (UUP) impacted gold prices (GLD) this year.
Is Gold Ready to Fly in the New Year?
In this series, we’ll look at what could influence gold demand as we step into 2019.
Why BNP Paribas Sees Gold Dropping Below $1,200 in 2019
Unlike other banks, BNP Paribas has a negative bias for gold going into 2019. Harry Tchilinguirian, global head of commodity markets strategy at BNP Paribas, is negative on gold (SGOL)(GLD).
The Story behind Bank of America’s Bullish Gold Outlook
Bank of America Merrill Lynch (BAML) is overweight on precious metals going into 2019.
What Makes Goldman Sachs ‘Extremely Positive’ on Gold in 2019?
Goldman Sachs (GS) turned positive on gold (GLD) for the first time in more than five years back in March.
The Gold Equities Credit Suisse Favors in 2019
Credit Suisse (CS) is positive about gold prices (IAU) in 2019. The bank expects gold prices to average $1,275 per ounce in 2019 and $1,300 in 2020.
Bulls versus Bears on Wall Street: Time to Buy Gold in 2019?
For a large part of the year, gold prices (GLD) have languished due to a strong US dollar (UUP), hawkish Fed rate hike outlook, and rising equity markets.
Time to Go Gold? Metal Outshines Risk Assets on Growth Concerns
For most of the year, gold prices (GLD) have languished, thanks to a strong US dollar (UUP), hawkish Fed rate hike outlook, and strength in the equity markets.
US Dollar Overtakes FAANG and BAT Stocks as Most Crowded Trade
According to the Bank of America Merrill Lynch Survey, the US dollar (UUP) replaced the FAANG and BAT stocks as the most crowded trade.
Why Is Goldman Sachs Extremely Sold on Gold in 2019?
In a report published on November 26, Goldman Sachs (GS) stated that commodities (COMT) could climb 17% in the coming months.
Why the US Dollar Could Be Bullish for Gold in 2019
The US dollar (UUP) has been on an upward trajectory in 2018 so far. Year-to-date, it’s up ~7.4% compared to other major global currencies.
Has Gold Made a Comeback with Market Volatility?
Last week turned out to be great for gold prices (GLD). As equity and bond markets continued to struggle, gold made the best of the situation.
Why the World Gold Council Thinks Gold Is ‘Interestingly Balanced’
The World Gold Council (or WGC) chief Market Strategist and Head of Research, John Reade, analyzed gold’s performance in 2018.
Gold ETF Holdings Are on the Rise
There is a lot of uncertainty and volatility in the current economic macro environment with trade tensions continuing and geopolitical issues ramping up.
Why Oracle’s Revenue Growth Could Fall in the Current Quarter
The US dollar (UUP) has continued to strengthen this year. Ongoing US-China trade tensions are making investors nervous.
Markets Rose after the US-China Trade War Truce
On December 3, global markets rose due to the US-China trade war truce. The agreement eased concerns about the coming global slowdown.
Powell’s Speech Ignites a Rally in Equities and Metals
Markets had been worried about the Fed’s continued aggressive stance on rate hikes, which could shorten economic expansion.
A Peek at Apple’s Soft Revenue Guidance
Apple (AAPL) posted better-than-expected earnings and revenue in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2018.
Could Market Risks Restore Investors’ Focus on Gold and Miners?
After a calm period in stock markets, downside risks have increased.
Why Morgan Stanley Prefers Emerging Markets over US Markets
Similar to other investment banks, Morgan Stanley (MS) doesn’t have high hopes for US markets in 2019.
Q4 2018 Started on a High Note for Gold
During the third quarter, gold’s price fell ~5%, dipping below the psychologically important level of $1,200 per ounce it touched in August.
What Investors Should Know as Trade War Muddies Economic Outlook
Trade wars muddying US economic outlook Another factor impacting the US (SPY) growth outlook is the unfolding of the trade war between the US (SPY) (DIA) and China (FXI). The US has already imposed three rounds of tariffs on Chinese imports covering a total of $250 billion worth of imports, which have been met with […]
Central Banks Buy Most Gold in Three Years
According to the World Gold Council (or WGC), central banks’ gold (SGOL) buying has hit the highest level in almost three years for the quarter ended September 2018.
Gold Price Outlook: Analysts Are Watching These Factors
Bank of America analysts contend that gold prices (GLD) should surge over the next year.
Could Gold Rise despite a Strengthening US Dollar?
The US dollar (UUP) has been on a fairly upward trajectory in 2018 thus far.
Could Gold Be the Best Bet amid Increased Economic Uncertainty?
Gold prices (GLD) saw their first monthly gain in the last seven months in October when prices rose by 2.1%.
Here Are the Most Crowded Trades even as Tech Allocation Plunges
For the tenth consecutive month, the so-called FAANG and BAT stocks remained the most crowded trades.
November BAML Survey: How Fund Managers Are Playing the Markets
Bank of America Merrill Lynch conducted a survey of 225 investors with $641 billion in total assets under management between November 2 and November 8.
Why Iron Ore Is Bucking Falling Price Trends Unlike Other Metals
Since the start of this year, there has been a severe fall in the prices of almost all commodities like copper, nickel, lead, cobalt, and gold.
Gold and Gold Miners Have Recovered in October
Gold and gold miners have recovered in October after consolidating in September. However, gold and gold miners have declined year-to-date.
Should Investors Be Interested in Emerging Markets?
Emerging markets (EEM) saw tremendous growth last year and grabbed investors’ attention.
Gold, Miners Have Surged on the Market Rout—What’s the Upside?
Gold prices have failed to draw a bid in 2018 despite many market uncertainties, including trade tensions and other geopolitical concerns.
Here’s What’s Worrying Markets More than Rising Interest Rates
One of the major market worries at the core of the current market sell-off is the coming earnings deceleration.
Does the Sell-Off Imply Market Repositioning for Lower Growth?
The Dow Jones Industrial Average Index tumbled more than 800 points yesterday as Treasury yields continued their upward march.
Dalio Predicts Weaker Dollar due to Budget Deficit Financing
The White House has acknowledged that the deficit is growing faster than it had expected.
Is US Dollar Outlook Dimming on ‘De-Dollarization’ Concerns?
The US dollar (UUP) has been on a fairly upward trajectory in 2018 thus far.
Central Banks Are Accumulating Gold due to Dollar Worries
Central banks have been net buyers of gold (SGOL) since the beginning of the financial crisis of 2008.
Is Gold’s Longest Monthly Losing Streak Nearing an End?
Gold prices dropped for the sixth straight month in September.
Gold Prices Have Slumped in 2018 on the Dollar’s Strength
The robust U.S. dollar has weighed on gold since May, and in August the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY)1 again reached new yearly highs.
Fed Raises Interest Rates, Hints at Three Hikes in 2019
As widely expected, the Federal Reserve increased the interest rate (TLT) yesterday by 25 basis points to 2%–2.25%.
Analysts and Gold Stocks: Five They Love and Five Not So Much
Gold investors have been puzzled by the way gold prices are falling amid ramped-up trade tensions and emerging market crises.
Rate Hike Could Impact US Equity Markets and Gold
In the past few years, one of the factors fueling US equity markets has been cheap money. The end of easy money could put the brakes on the economy.
Contrarian Investors’ Positions after BAML Survey
A record number of fund managers in the BAML September survey believe that gold is undervalued, trading at a 17-year low.
Investors Can’t Get Enough of FAANG+BAT, the Most-Crowded Trade
It seems like fund managers can’t get enough of technology stocks. They continue to invest in the so-called FAANG+BAT stocks.
How Will the US Dollar and Gold React amid Escalating Tensions?
gold has not been able to draw safe-haven bids in 2018 so far, as the strong US dollar (UUP) keeps weighing it down.
Can Central Banks and Governments Contain the Next Recession?
The US’s fiscal deficit as a percentage of GDP was 3.4% in fiscal 2017 as compared to 1.1% in fiscal 2007.
Why Ray Dalio Thinks China Isn’t Concerned about Tariff Levels
The major beneficiary of the trade war in 2018 is the US dollar (UUP), which has been receiving safe-haven bids in the face of uncertainty.
Could Trade Tension Support the US Dollar Again?
The US dollar (UUP) made a comeback on September 14 after reports suggested that Donald Trump is planning to impose tariffs on Chinese goods worth $200 billion, despite trade talks.
US Consumer Price Index Underwhelms: Gold, Stocks Rejoice
The US CPI (consumer price index) for August rose 0.2% sequentially compared to the 0.3% growth that was expected by economists.
Why the Bottom for Gold Could Be Close
The SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD) has fallen ~8.4% year-to-date and ~11.5% from its April peak.
What Could Be the Catalyst for Gold’s Short Covering?
According to the COT report for the week ended September 4, money managers resumed building their short positions in gold futures.
What US Investors Need to Know about Emerging Market Risks
According to the Institute of International Finance, the portfolio flows into emerging markets (EEM) slowed to $2.2 billion in August from $13.7 billion in July.
Have Tariffs Started Taking a Toll on US Businesses?
The manufacturing sector shed 3,000 jobs during August. This is the first time in the last year that the sector has cut jobs.
The US Trade Deficit Is Up despite Trump’s ‘America First’ Policy
In July, the United States’ (SPY)(IVV) trade deficit rose to a five-month high and at its fastest rate since 2015.
Could the US Dollar’s Rally Fizzle to Gold’s Benefit?
It’s no secret that President Trump wants a weaker dollar to support the country’s exports.
Is Gold’s Autumn Rally around the Corner?
Gold investors are waiting for the Fed’s meeting on September 25 and 26 for the rate outlook, as a September rate hike seems more certain.
Will China’s Record Surplus with US Intensify Trade War?
China’s trade surplus with the US hit a record of $31 billion in August.
US Dollar Strengthens after Dry Spell: Can It Continue?
The US dollar (UUP) is gaining strength after a short dry spell.
Gold: Support or Pressure from Emerging Markets and Trade War?
In August, gold prices saw a fifth consecutive monthly decline, which is the longest streak in the last five and a half years.
Gold Suffers as ISM Manufacturing Index Shines
As of 11:00 AM ET today, the SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD) was down 0.6%. Gold prices were already under pressure.
Trade War: Can Commodities Break Free?
Trade war fears have taken a toll on industrial metals in 2018. Gold (GLD), which should have shined under these circumstances, is also reeling.
These Analysts Expect Gold Prices to Rebound on Short Squeeze
UBS strategist Joni Teves believes that the shorting of gold (GLD) “should ultimately be supportive” for the metal and allow “ample space for positions to be rebuilt ahead.”