PowerShares DB US Dollar Bullish ETF

Earlier in the series, we discussed IBM’s (IBM) geographical revenues and the impact of currency fluctuations, especially the US dollar’s (UUP) impact on the company’s fiscal 4Q17 results.

We’ll explore whether record highs signal a top for equity markets or whether there’s still some room for growth in the current bull market.

The year-over-year revenue growth trend for Amazon’s International segment was falling until last quarter.

Volatility in the global markets fell considerably in the previous week. The key risks subsided that spiked risk aversion in the last few weeks.

Gold (IAU) (GLD) prices usually have a strong negative correlation with the US dollar (UUP). Gold, like other commodities, is denominated in the dollar.

Cisco is expected to announce its fiscal 3Q15 earnings on May 13. Cisco expects its year-over-year revenue growth to be 3%–5% in the quarter.

The US economy stalled in 2014 for several reasons, including seasonality, weather, strength of the dollar, the West Coast port strike, and the oil price slump.

As the US dollar lost some ground on February 20, 2017, its weakening gave a push to gold prices. Gold rose ~0.2% over its previous trading day’s close.

The US Dollar Index rose ~0.1% to ~94.15 yesterday, while August WTI oil futures rose 0.4% to $74.11 per barrel.

The US Dollar Index (UUP) managed to close in positive territory in the week ended February 8, 2018, after posting seven consecutive weekly losses.

Alphabet (GOOGL), the parent company of Google (GOOG), is scheduled to announce the third quarter earnings of 2015 on October 22.

As expected, the Federal Reserve increased the interest rate by 25 basis points after its June meeting, which concluded on June 13.

The dollar index (UUP) rallied about 22% between October 2014 to July 2016.

The US Dollar Index, which measures the strength of the US dollar against other major currencies, rose to a high of 97.69 in early trading after the release of the durable goods data. The US Dollar Index was trading flat as of 12:30 PM EST.

Red Hat (RHT) stock fell 13.6% last week. The stock fell 14% on December 14, 2016, due to disappointing 3Q16 results.

Mexico’s manufacturing PMI increased to 52.3 in June 2017 compared to 51.2 in May.

The US dollar rose 0.32% on January 3, which led to a lower price for spot gold and silver. During the last month, the US dollar (UUP) has fallen 0.78%, and gold has risen 2.9%.

Gold touched a one-month low on Thursday, September 28, due to the rise of the US dollar over the speculation of another rate hike in December 2017.

The US September manufacturing PMI (purchasing managers’ index) report indicated an improvement in US (QQQ) (IWM) business conditions.

WTI (West Texas Intermediate) crude oil futures contracts for May delivery rose 1.2% to $51.6 per barrel in electronic trade at 5:20 AM EST on April 5.

In the past ten quarters including fiscal 1Q17, Oracle’s revenues have missed analyst expectations nine times.

Holding cash is risky, as it provides negative real returns in the long run.

Last week, volatility in global markets continued to trend lower as US markets, barring the Dow 30, closed on a positive note. In this series, we’ll analyze how different asset classes performed last week, and discuss their outlook.

Large caps will be in a much better position to navigate through this period given their cash positions.

After Donald Trump’s US election win, the Chinese yuan fell 1.6% against the US dollar (UUP) (USDU) (UDN) between November 9 and November 22, 2016.

After a 20% surge in volatility in the week of September 4, volatility in the global markets dropped as markets opened on September 11.

In 2015 many firms in the US (IWM) inflated their earnings and assets, as cheap credit was available.

Alliance Data’s (ADS) LoyaltyOne business segment’s revenues fell 9% YoY (year-over-year) from $398 million in 4Q14 to $364 million in 4Q15.

Besides geopolitical issues, the US dollar has also been playing an important role in the determination of the price movement for precious metals.

Weak global demand and a strengthening dollar have affected oil prices.

In its July meeting, the Federal Open Market Committee decided to maintain its target range for the federal funds rate at 1%–1.25%, in line with the market’s expectations.

The ascent of the global markets continued last week, with indexes continuing to scale new heights.

According to a Eurostat report, Eurozone fourth quarter economic growth for 2016 expanded to 0.5% as compared to the 0.4% improvement in the previous quarter.

Alibaba reported a 31% YoY growth in its active buyers in the quarter ending June 2015. It declined by 6% when compared with the quarter ending March 2015.

The RBC Canadian Manufacturing PMI for September marked an all-time low. At 48.6, business conditions show continued deterioration from August’s 49.4.

The FOMC’s two-day meeting will be held on December 12–13, 2017. The Fed is expected to raise the US interest rate during this meeting.

A weaker euro could lead to inflation in Europe. The depreciation in the euro was initially due to the appreciation in the dollar.

The information technology, energy, and materials sectors rose 2.2%, 2.2%, and 1.9%, respectively, on March 29, 2018.

Precious metals saw a down day on Monday, September 18. Gold, silver, and platinum fell 1.1%, 3.1%, and 1.1%, respectively, on the day.

The euro (FXE) closed the week ended November 21, 2017, at 1.193, appreciating 1.14% against the US dollar (UUP).

In the current market scenario, the global markets (ACWI) (VTI) (VEU) are mainly driven by the monetary stimulus provided by the central banks.

Four days before the UK (EWU) decided to leave the European Union (VGK), Soros warned the markets of a “Black Friday” and a crash in the pound.

The financials sector continues to be the top-invested sector, with four of the 12 funds choosing it as their most preferred sector. However, the number of funds choosing financials is down from six in the previous quarter.

DJTI’s price-to-earnings ratio climbed from 15.7x at the start of 2013 to 20.2x at the end of 2014. This year, transportation stocks (IYT) have taken a hit, leading to multiple contractions.

A stronger dollar is a headwind for export-oriented stocks. The US economy is relatively robust.

Markets will remain focused on the ECB policy meeting scheduled for Thursday this week.

While GameStop’s pre-owned sales were flat YoY (year-over-year) in fiscal 4Q15, comparable store sales rose 3.1% YoY.

The US dollar index (UUP) is rising on a gradual basis. Between November 9, 2016, and December 16, 2016, the dollar index rose nearly 4.5%.

FOMC members after the latest policy statement have remained biased toward further rate hikes, but markets have questioned the Fed’s hawkishness.

In times of escalating geopolitical or economic concerns, gold often acts as a safe-haven asset. This year, however, gold’s safe-haven appeal seems to be somewhat tarnished.

This article discusses the ways in which an improving economy is good for the dollar.

In calendar 2Q15, PC shipments fell globally by 9.50%. This situation is likely to continue through 2016 and isn’t likely to stabilize before 2017.

The strengthening US dollar (UUP) has been pressuring the entire technology sector, and growth in Oracle’s (ORCL) top line is vulnerable to fluctuations in the dollar.

The US dollar began 2016 on a bullish note and was trading at 99.5 levels in the early hours of trade on January 6. Crude prices began 2016 on a bearish note.

As earnings reports and analyst call transcripts show, many of the companies reporting sales misses cited the strong dollar as a contributing factor.

The dollar index saw downward movement between December 28, 2016, and September 8, 2017.

So now that the Fed rate liftoff has finally arrived, should you flee to market sidelines? If you can believe history, the answer is an emphatic no.

March WTI (West Texas Intermediate) crude oil (ERX) (IEZ) (USO) (PXI) futures contracts fell 1.6% and settled at $52.17 per barrel on February 7, 2017.

Stock market volatility around the globe continued to trend lower as uncertainty about German elections, North Korea, and US tax reforms subsided.

The US equity markets (SPY) haven’t seen any major impacts from the Fed’s policies in the recent past.

Many economists, like the Nobel Prize–winning Paul Krugman, believe that the Fed acted as a “white knight” in 2008, saving the global economy in the dire aftermath of the financial crisis.

Gundlach also had something to say about assets other than bonds and stocks like gold (GLD) and the US dollar (UUP).

IBM pointed to the strengthening US dollar for the decline in its revenues, which fell by 13.5% in fiscal 2Q15. On a constant currency basis, revenue only declined by 1%.

The US Dollar Index rose 0.4% to 101.4 on November 18, 2016—the highest level in the last 13 years. It also rose 4% in the last two weeks.

The American Petroleum Institute will release its crude oil inventory report on Tuesday, December 5, 2017.

When the U.S. dollar appreciates, gains on international equity investments can diminish when converted back into U.S. dollars.

Groupon (GRPN) is pumping millions of dollars (UUP) into marketing and customer acquisition efforts as it seeks to conquer the North American daily deals market.

Gold prices (GLD) recorded their first weekly gain last week after six weeks of continued losses. What changed?

Over a good four decades, the S&P 500’s net profit margin has fallen notably when the economy was on the verge of, or already into, a recession.

Since the British Brexit referendum on June 23, 2016, the British pound (FXB) has been nervous.

Despite providing weak guidance for 2016, VMware’s (VMW) 1Q16 results beat analysts’ estimates, which helped its stock to rise by 10% after its results were released.

The Materials Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLB), which tracks the performance of the material sector, showed a weaker performance in March 2017.

WTI crude oil (USO) futures hit $58.95 per barrel on November 24, 2017—the highest level in nearly three years.

Asian currencies traded lower against the dollar ahead of the FOMC statement. The US dollar-Japanese yen currency pair rose by 0.80% at 6:00 AM EST on July 27.

The US dollar (UUP) (UDN) seemed to show mixed response to the Fed’s rate hike on March 15, as prices have reflected a downtrend so far in 2017.

The US Dollar Index fell 0.2% to 101.5 on November 25, 2016. However, it hit 102 on November 24, 2016—the highest level in nearly 14 years.

August US crude oil futures contracts rose 2.5% and closed at $46.04 per barrel on June 30. Brent crude oil futures rose and settled at $47.92 per barrel.

On June 9, the US dollar index, which measures the strength of the US dollar against a basket of major currencies, ended a three-day loosing streak.

Crude oil prices fell due to the API’s bearish crude oil inventory report. Prices have been trading between $50 per barrel and $54 per barrel since January.

USCF OPEC’s decision to cut 1.2 mbd has already had a significant price effect, and compliance has already started. Production dropped 3% in December. At the moment, all eyes are on whether OPEC members will comply, and whether returning supply from Libya and Nigeria may offset any cuts OPEC has announced. The bigger wildcard is the U.S. It […]

September US crude oil (RYE) (VDE) (BNO) futures contracts rose 3.3% to $47.8 per barrel on July 25, 2017.

The negative interest rates in major developed markets (EFA) such as Europe (VGK) (EZU) and Japan (EWJ) (DXJ) make US government debt more attractive.

WTI (West Texas Intermediate) crude oil (USO) (UCO) (XLE) futures contracts for May delivery rose 2.4% and settled at $49.51 per barrel on March 29, 2017.

US crude oil prices rose due to a larger-than-expected draw in US crude oil inventories and record refinery crude oil demand.

In 4Q16, US (SPY) (QQQ) (IVV) (VFINX) real GDP grew at an annual rate of 1.9% compared to a 3.5% rise in 3Q16.

The US dollar (UUP) is gaining strength after a short dry spell.

According to the US trade balance report, the US trade deficit widened to $51.37 billion in March against an expected $41.7 billion. March is the largest monthly widening since 1996.

Overall in 2017, the dollar index fell 9.8%.

The US Dollar Index (UUP) closed at 95.79 with a rise of 0.39% last week. This rise was a welcome relief for the dollar.

The US had a budget deficit of $215 billion in February 2018, the largest in six years.

Crude oil (USO) (IXC) (XES) was trading near a 20-month high on March 7. US crude oil prices posted their biggest one-day decline in the last 13 months.

US crude oil (DBO) (USL) (OIIL) July futures rose 5% between May 16 and May 23, 2017.

The SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD) has fallen ~8.0% year-to-date and ~11.0% from its April peak.

Between May 18 and May 25, US crude oil July futures fell 4.9%—the steepest weekly decline since February 9.

Red Hat (RHT), a leading Linux software and open-source provider, was the latest in the technology space to announce its fiscal 4Q16 earnings.

The FTSE 100 Index (UKX) fell ~3.4% for the week ended March 23, 2018, and closed at 6,921.94.

The federal funds rate is a tool that the Fed uses to control the interest rate in the economy. The rate has been close to zero for over six years.

Euro rallies to a 23-month peak Last week, the euro (FXE) closed at 1.17, appreciating by 1.7% against the US dollar (UUP). The currency has appreciated by more than 10% against the US dollar this year, making it one of the strongest developed market currencies. Improving economic conditions and a stable political climate turned the […]

In 4Q16, Cliffs’ cash costs of goods sold for APIO was $36.4 per ton, or 8% higher YoY.

US crude oil futures contracts for September delivery fell by ~8% between July 26 and August 2. The US Dollar Index fell by about 2.2% over the same period.