Standard Pacific Corp

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  • uploads///MR Retail Sales
    Consumer

    Retail sales increase 0.2% in July, homebuilder opportunity ahead

    Retail sales data gives analysts insight into the strength of the consumer Consumption is the biggest driver of the U.S. economy and accounts for 70% of GDP. Consumption has been relatively subdued since the recession began, as Americans have boosted their savings rate and spent only on essentials. The real estate bubble drove consumption in […]

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///ISM PMI
    Consumer

    ISM manufacturing survey shows more manufacturing expansion

    Overall increases in business activity and consumption are starting to drive more business for homebuilders.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Unemployment Rate
    Consumer

    Why the FOMC minutes and weak payroll data drove REITS and builders

    Last week, we had two important data points with the FOMC minutes from the December meeting and the Employment Situation report on Friday.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Business Inventories
    Consumer

    Business inventories rise slower than sales, good for activity

    This series focuses on industrial and manufacturing releases that will affect the real estate sector. Since homebuilders are highly cyclical, housing analysts watch the manufacturing data closely.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///MR PPI
    Consumer

    Why the Producer Price Index increasing 0.8% in June will hurt homebuilders

    The Producer Price Index measures inflation at the wholesale level Analysts have typically taken inflation at the wholesale level to predict inflation at the consumer level. In a normal business environment, producers pass these increased costs to consumers, which would decrease disposable income if wages didn’t rise accordingly. Investors consider a little inflation a good thing. […]

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Foreclosure Starts
    Consumer

    Why foreclosure starts ticked up in October but are still falling

    Foreclosure starts are closely watched by investors, realtors, and homebuilders alike because they forecast future housing supply.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///CoreLogic Home Price Index  year
    Consumer

    Must-know: Home prices increase 7.4% YoY

    The 7.4% year-over-year (or YoY) gain resembles the gains we saw during the bubble years. On a month-over-month basis, the increase was only 1.2%. It was decent. The prices for ex-distressed sales increased 6.8%. Prices are still 11.9% below their peak in April 2006.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • Weekly economic recap: why REITs are crushed while homebuilding is bullish
    Consumer

    Weekly economic recap: why REITs are crushed while homebuilding is bullish

    The ten-year bond is the basis for all mortgage pricing Long-term interest rates are priced off the benchmark long-term bond, which is the ten-year Treasury. These days, the ten-year bond reacts to economic data through the Federal Reserve’s asset purchase program, also known as quantitative easing (QE). As a general rule, economic data that shows […]

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Bloomberg Consumer Comfort
    Consumer

    Bloomberg consumer comfort index hits a post-recession high, good for homebuilders

    The Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index rose to -28.3 for the week ending June 23 The Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index is a weekly sentiment index that covers three critical variables: respondents’ perception of the state of the economy, their evaluation of their personal finances, and whether it’s a good time to purchase goods and services. The […]

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Home Equity
    Consumer

    Aggregate home equity increases 9% in Q113

    Corelogic puts out a quarterly report on aggregate home equity in the U.S. Corelogic’s Home Equity Report analyzes changes in home equity from a number of different perspectives. Home equity can be used to predict default rates, and we saw a large number of strategic defaults early in the housing bust as professional investors realized […]

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///ISM PMI
    Consumer

    ISM PMI shows manufacturing back in expansionary territory

    The Institute for Supply Management Index assesses the state of manufacturing in the United States. The Institute for Supply Management Purchasing Manager’s Index (ISM PMI for short) is similar to the other regional PMI indices, however, it covers the entire country. The ISM PMI looks at various business indices, like new orders, production, employment, supplier […]

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///MBA Purchase Index
    Financials

    Seasonality Trumps The Bond Market Rally

    The MBA Purchase Index decreased 6.9% in the week ended December 12, 2014, despite a strong bond market rally.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///CFNAI
    Consumer

    The Chicago Fed National Activity Index shows economic expansion

    The Chicago Fed National Activity Index measures whether the economy is expanding on, above, or below its historical trend.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///MR household formation
    Consumer

    Why household formation drives homebuilder demand (Part 1)

    Low household formation numbers over the past five years will drive homebuilder demand going forward Since the financial crisis began, demand for new construction has fallen, as household formation numbers have dropped. The low household formation numbers have been driven by a poor economy—not by demographics. This represents pent-up demand that must be satisfied in […]

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Housing starts
    Consumer

    Housing starts rebound, driven by multi-family construction

    Housing starts are a critical predictor of future homebuilder sales Housing starts are released jointly by the Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. Analysts use the information to anticipate future production for homebuilders, future demand for raw materials, and labor costs. This data will even affect the forecasts for home-related retailers, […]

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///MR CPI
    Consumer

    Why the subdued Consumer Price Index gives the Fed an excuse

    This report will probably hold the hawks on the Fed at bay and allow them to continue to maintain ultra-low interest rates. That said, the bond market has been pricing in a tapering of quantitative easing.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///MBA Purchase Index
    Consumer

    Why the MBA Purchase Index fell but housing remains affordable

    The MBA Purchase Index fell by 0.4% last week, which is somewhat surprising given that rates fell and even refinances rose.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads/// year bond yield historical
    Consumer

    Week in review: Bonds fell slightly as the government shut down

    The ten-year bond is the basis for all mortgage pricing Long-term interest rates are priced off the benchmark long-term bond, which is the ten-year Treasury. These days, the ten-year bond reacts to economic data through the Federal Reserve’s asset purchase program, also known as quantitative easing (or QE). As a general rule, economic data that shows […]

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///MR consumer credit
    Consumer

    Consumer credit increases in August, good for homebuilder stocks

    Consumer credit increased $13.6 billion (or 5.4% annualized) in August, as non-revolving credit increased 8.0% and revolving credit fell 1.2%.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///MR Richmond Fed
    Consumer

    Richmond Fed Manufacturing Survey dives in July, homebuilders unaffected

    The Richmond Fed Manufacturing Survey looks at business conditions in the Fed’s fifth district, which covers Washington, DC, Baltimore, Richmond, and Charlotte The Richmond Fed Manufacturing Survey is sent out to companies in the Mid-Atlantic states and covers current business conditions, shipments, new orders, backlog, and inventory. It’s similar to the other surveys put out […]

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///CoreLogic Home Price Index  year
    Consumer

    The CoreLogic Index shows home price appreciation is decelerating

    The CoreLogic Index is a widely followed index of real estate values. Unlike the other major indices—like Case-Shiller or Radar Logic—CoreLogic separates distressed sales from non-distressed sales.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///MBA Purchase Index
    Consumer

    Homebuilder opportunity: Mortgage purchase applications fall, but still strong

    The MBA Purchase Index is an important index that forecasts housing activity The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) index of purchase activity measures application activity, not loans made. The Mortgage Bankers Association samples roughly 75% of all mortgage activity in the U.S., and its indices are key indicators for the real estate finance market and home […]

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Industrial Production
    Consumer

    Industrial production rebounds in August, good for homebuilders

    Industrial production is a bellwether of economic activity Industrial production is a good top-down macroeconomic indicator that helps forecast the labor market, final demand, consumption, and inflation. While manufacturing is no longer the primary driver of the U.S. economy, it still influences the economy to a large degree—particularly for unskilled workers. U.S. manufacturing has been […]

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Housing Starts
    Consumer

    Housing starts dampened by wet weather in the Midwest

    Housing starts are a critical predictor of future home builder sales Housing starts are released jointly by the Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. Analysts use the information to anticipate future production for home builders, future demand for raw materials, and labor costs. This data will even affect the forecasts for […]

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Philly Fed
    Consumer

    Philly Fed Index drops after huge months, but outlook optimistic

    The Philadelphia Fed Survey is an important survey about economic expectations in the Mid-Atlantic region The diffusion index is based on the number of businesses reporting increased activity less the number of businesses reporting decreased activity. It also includes an index of expectations six months out. The survey drills down into orders and shipments, employment, […]

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Fed Assets
    Consumer

    Must-know: The Fed reduces asset purchases by another $10 billion

    Yesterday, the Federal Reserve ended its January Federal Open Market Committee meeting and decided to continue to reduce asset purchases. This was Ben Bernanke’s final FOMC meeting.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Richmond Fed
    Consumer

    Mid-Atlantic manufacturing is picking up, helping homebuilders

    The Richmond Fed Manufacturing Survey looks at business conditions in the Fed’s fifth district, which covers Washington, DC, Baltimore, Richmond, and Charlotte.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Chart  Construction spending
    Macroeconomic Analysis

    Higher Residential Construction Spending Keeps Sector Going

    Spending on private construction, which accounts for more than 71.8% of all construction spending, fell 0.5% in January.

    By Peter Barnes
  • uploads///Chart  Rental vacancy
    Macroeconomic Analysis

    Low Rental Vacancy Rate Pushes Builders into the Market

    The drop in the rental vacancy rate indicates that owning a home still isn’t affordable for many people, despite the economic revival.

    By Peter Barnes
  • uploads///IBD TIPP Optimism Index
    Consumer

    Understanding the key to consumer confidence for homebuilders

    Consumption is the major driver of the U.S. economy. It accounts for 70% of GDP. Consumption has been relatively subdued since the recession began, as Americans have boosted their savings rate and spent only on essentials.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///SPF Basics
    Consumer

    Standard Pacific Homes’ background affects its 2Q14 earnings

    Founded in 1965, Standard Pacific (SPF) is a Southern California–based builder with operations in California, Florida, the Carolinas, Texas, Arizona, and Colorado.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///GDP
    Consumer

    Why the FOMC and earnings drove bonds, REITs, and builders

    Last week had some important data points with the FOMC meeting and also some key economic reports. The Fed decided to make another reduction in asset purchases.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Homeownership Rate
    Consumer

    Why the key to the recovery is the first-time homebuyer

    The first-time homebuyer has had a number of big issues to contend with. The biggest one has been a lousy job market for recent college graduates.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Retail Sales
    Consumer

    Why bonds sold off on stronger economic data and a hawkish Fed

    The Fed’s economic outlook remained relatively constructive and it set the stage for a December taper.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Unemployment Rate
    Consumer

    Week in Review: Jobs, REIT earnings, and key homebuilder mergers

    Last week, we had some important data points—with the advance estimate for third quarter GDP and the all-important jobs report.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///MR unemployment rate LT
    Consumer

    Insured unemployed and initial jobless claims predict unemployment

    The insured unemployment rate The insured unemployment rate is the number of unemployed people who are eligible for unemployment insurance. These people are the most recently laid-off and therefore have the freshest skills. A drop in the insured unemployment rate is the strongest predictor of a drop in the future unemployment rate. This makes sense, […]

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
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