Newcastle Investment Corporation

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  • uploads///LPS originations
    Financials

    Why low mortgage origination volumes are bad for REITs

    Mortgage originators have had a difficult time over the past year, as rates have begun rising. The increase in interest rates pretty much stopped the refinance boom in its tracks.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads/// year bond yield historical
    Financials

    Recommendation: Should REIT investors fear an accelerated taper?

    Last week, we had some stronger-than-expected data with housing starts and some of the industrial production data. Does that mean the Fed will accelerate tapering?

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Fed  GDP forecast
    Financials

    Why has the recovery taken so long to arrive?

    The recovery hasn’t been satisfying. Due to consumption and consumer deleveraging, the necessary spending isn’t generated to pull the economy out of its slow growth pattern.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///MBS tranching
    Financials

    Must-know update: American Capital Agency and its background

    American Capital Agency is a diversified agency mortgage REIT that invests all across the agency mortgage-backed security space.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///CoreLogic Home Price Index  year
    Consumer

    Must-know: Home prices increase 7.4% YoY

    The 7.4% year-over-year (or YoY) gain resembles the gains we saw during the bubble years. On a month-over-month basis, the increase was only 1.2%. It was decent. The prices for ex-distressed sales increased 6.8%. Prices are still 11.9% below their peak in April 2006.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///FHFA House Price Index
    Financials

    April Federal Housing Finance Agency House Price Index rose 7.4%, good for investors

    The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) House Price Index The FHFA House Price Index differs from the other house price indices like Case-Schiller and Radar Logic in that it only looks at houses with mortgages guaranteed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. This means all the home prices are below the conforming threshold, which is $417,000. […]

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Fed  Unemployment Forecast
    Financials

    Why The Fed Continues To Anticipate Lower Unemployment

    At the March 2013 meeting, the Fed was forecasting that 2015 unemployment would be 6.7%–7%. Now, the Fed is forecasting that unemployment will be 5.2%–5.3%.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Black Knight Origination Volume
    Financials

    Why more mortgage originators venture into the non-qualified space

    The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau promulgated a list of requirements for a mortgage to be considered a qualified mortgage (or QM). On January 1, the new QM rules took effect.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///FHFA home price index
    Financials

    FHFA Home Price Index rises in June, good for non-agency REITs

    The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) House Price Index The FHFA House Price Index differs from the other house price indices like Case-Shiller and Radar Logic in that it only looks at houses with mortgages guaranteed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. This means all the home prices are below the conforming threshold, which is $417,000. It […]

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///LPS originations
    Financials

    Why steeply falling originations mean bad news for non-agency REITs

    Mortgage originators have had a difficult time over the past year, as rates have begun rising. The increase in interest rates pretty much stopped the refinance boom in its tracks.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///CoreLogic Home Price Index  year
    Consumer

    The CoreLogic Index shows home price appreciation is decelerating

    The CoreLogic Index is a widely followed index of real estate values. Unlike the other major indices—like Case-Shiller or Radar Logic—CoreLogic separates distressed sales from non-distressed sales.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///MBS tranching
    Financials

    Understanding American Capital Agency versus peers like Annaly

    American Capital Agency (AGNC) is a diversified agency mortgage REIT that invests all across the agency mortgage-backed security (MBS) space.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Case Schiller
    Financials

    S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index rises in March

    The Standard and Poor’s/Case-Shiller index of real estate prices increased 10.9% year-over-year in March, hinting that the real estate market bottomed around this time last year. The Case-Shiller index The Case-Shiller index is the most widely quoted index of real estate values. Real estate values are big drivers of consumer confidence and spending, and, therefore, […]

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads/// year bond yield historical
    Financials

    Recommendation: Don’t read too much into the emerging market selloff

    Bonds have been rallying as emerging markets sell off. Does a sell-off in emerging markets change the Fed’s decision-making regarding tapering?

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///AGNC dividend
    Real Estate

    American Capital Agency’s 3rd quarter earnings: Company overview

    American Capital Agency is one of the biggest REITs in the U.S. by market capitalization. Annaly Capital Management is the other. As such, AGNC is one of the biggest ultimate lenders in the mortgage market.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///foreclosure heat map
    Financials

    Why state foreclosure laws matter for REITs like CYS Investments

    The states with the biggest foreclosure inventory are the states with judicial foreclosure processes—New York, New Jersey, and Florida.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///FHFA House Price Index
    Financials

    FHFA House Price index is within 9% of April 2005’s peak levels

    The 7.6% year-over-year gain was the second highest since mid-2006, and it puts the index back at April 2005 levels. The rate of price appreciation appears to be slowing.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///foreclosure heat map
    Real Estate

    Why state laws matter to nonagency REITs

    Real estate prices are a bigger driver of nonagency real estate investment trusts. Rising real estate prices also help reduce stress on the financial system.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///CoreLogic Home Price Index  year
    Consumer

    A good omen for builders: Home prices increase 13% year-over-year

    Real estate values are big drivers of consumer confidence and spending, so they have an enormous effect on the economy.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///DQs by State
    Real Estate

    Why State Laws Matter For Home Price Appreciation

    Borrower behavior is heavily influenced by consumer protection laws—particularly at the state level. States that require a judicial review of foreclosure activity tend to have higher delinquency rates.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Nonfarm Payrolls
    Financials

    The week ahead: Jobs plus Annaly and other mortgage REIT earnings

    We have a big week ahead, with a slew of important economic data and earnings from the mortgage REIT sector. The biggest REIT will be Annaly Capital reporting on Wednesday.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///FHFA HPI Cumulative
    Financials

    The FHFA House Price Index is within 5% of its peak

    While most indices showed the housing market bottoming out around February 2012, the FHFA House Price Index showed it bottoming out around May 2011.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Case Schiller
    Financials

    Case-Shiller Index improves in February

    The Standard and Poor’s/Case-Shiller index of real estate prices increased 9.3% year-over-year in February, hinting that the real estate market bottomed around this time last year. The Case-Shiller index The Case-Shiller index is the most widely quoted index of real estate values. Real estate values are big drivers of consumer confidence and spending, and, therefore, […]

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Case Schiller
    Macroeconomic Analysis

    The Case-Shiller Index Is 10% below Its 2006 Peak

    In April, the Case-Shiller Index rose by 1% month-over-month. It’s up by 5.4% YoY. Prices are still about 10% below the peak set in the summer of 2006.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Case Schiller
    Company & Industry Overviews

    Case-Shiller Index of Home Prices Continued to Rise in October

    The seasonally adjusted Case-Shiller Index rose by 0.8% month-over-month and is up by 5.5% year-over-year. Since home prices bottomed out, we’ve had a couple of years of low double-digit returns in prices.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Black Knight Origination
    Financials

    Must-know: Understanding non-qualified mortgage loans

    Non-QM loans would typically be useful for borrowers with sporadic income, but a large amount of assets. However, lenders will only consider low loan-to-value (or LTV) loans—like 80% maximum, which really is a ceiling. Most lenders are below that.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///foreclosure heat map
    Financials

    Why state foreclosure laws affect home price appreciation

    In the judicial states—particularly New York, New Jersey, and Connecticut—we’re seeing much lower home price appreciation— in fact, there’s very little residential construction at all

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Case Schiller
    Financials

    Must-know: Low inventory affects the REITs in different ways

    Existing home sales have been lower than usual. Most markets usually bottom on some sort of big volume wash-out, where inventory is dumped from weak hands into strong hands.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads/// year bond yield historical
    Financials

    Recommendation: With the economy picking up steam, what is a yield investor to do?

    This is an unfriendly environment for bonds, and with the stock market at all-time highs, yield is hard to come by.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Labor Force Particiption Rate
    Financials

    Recommendation: Why swap interest rate risk for credit risk?

    The most important economic report these days came out last Friday, which is the the monthly jobs report. The Street had set the bar relatively low.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Case Schiller
    Financials

    Case-Shiller’s biggest gain in 8 years is good for non-agency REITs

    The index increased 1.03% month-over-month and 13.3% year-over-year. Prices have risen the most in the areas that were hit the hardest.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///mREIT
    Financials

    Must-know analysis: Can mortgage REITs be too big to fail?

    The biggest names in the REIT sector are Annaly (NLY) and American Capital Agency (AGNC). They bear no credit risk, but they do bear a lot of interest rate risk.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
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