iShares Latin America 40

After CEO John Flint’s exit, HSBC might cut thousands of jobs—mainly seniors executives. Noel Quinn will serve as an interim CEO.

Antofagasta (ANTO) has received “strong buy” ratings from seven analysts, while five have given it “buy” ratings or some equivalent.

Southern Copper carries a mean consensus target price of $46.8, which represents a potential downside of 8.5% over its closing price on June 11.

Last month, China imported 443,000 metric tons of unwrought copper and copper product. China imported 450,000 metric tons in December 2017.

The final Markit Brazil Manufacturing PMI (Purchasing Managers’ Index) stood at 50.9 in September 2017. It remained unchanged compared to August 2017.

While copper bears have been overshadowed by the bulls this month, they might like their chances in 4Q17.

The Brazilian economy (EWZ) (BRZU) has faced a series of problems such as lower economic growth, higher inflation, political uncertainty, and higher unemployment.

According to a report by Markit Economics, the final Brazil manufacturing PMI (purchasing managers’ index) rose to 50.9 in August 2017 as compared to 50 in July.

China imported 390,000 metric tons of unwrought copper and copper products in August 2017—compared to 350,000 metric tons in August 2016.

Consumer prices in Colombia (GXG) rose 3.4% on a year-over-year basis in July 2017, lower than the 4.0% rise in June 2017.

Colombia (GXG) signed a deal with the Mercosur trade bloc on July 21, 2017, to allow the import of limited quantities of certain products without a tariff in the Colombian market.

Previously in this series, we’ve looked at China’s July steel and aluminum exports. In this final part of the series, we’ll look at Chinese copper imports.

During its 2Q17 earnings call, Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) lowered its 2017 copper production guidance to 3.7 billion pounds.

Mexico’s manufacturing activity posted a strong performance after its output, new orders, and employment picked up the pace in June 2017.

Consumer prices in Mexico (EEM) surged 6.31% year-over-year (or YoY) in June 2017, compared to their 6.16% rise YoY in May.

Global (ACWI) recovery in 2017 has helped labor market conditions to improve across OECD (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development) nations.

Economic activity in Mexico rose 3.1% year-over-year (or YoY) in May 2017, a rebound from its YoY fall of 0.57% in April 2017.

Political chaos has affected confidence levels in Brazil, which saw its business confidence reach its lowest level in 2017 in June.

Consumer prices in Brazil (BRZU) grew by 3% YoY in June 2017, compared with 3.6% in May 2017.

President Mauricio Macri’s austerity measures seem to be impacting Argentina’s consumer confidence, as it saw another fall in June 2017.

Chile’s economy is highly dependent on copper mining activities. The recent long strike at BHP Billiton’s Escondida copper mine continues to impact Chile.

Peru’s economy continues to suffer in 2017 from the damage caused by floods in March 2017 due to the ENSO (El Niño Southern Oscillation).

On July 13, 2017, Brazil’s former President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva was sentenced to ten years in prison for graft.

Latin American (ILF) equities in June 2017 remained steady amid the political turmoil among its member nations.

Colombia, an important Latin American (ILF) economy, is currently facing sluggish growth due to a decline in commodity prices (DBC) and political instability.

Annual consumer inflation in Colombia (GXG) has dropped for 12 consecutive months as of June 2017.

1Q17 economic growth in Colombia (ICOL) remained below market expectations.

Brazilian (ILF) manufacturers remain firmly optimistic about the country’s output growth in the next 12 months.

UAL is currently trading at $76. Its 52-week high is $83.04, and its 52-week low is $37.64.

Argentina (ARGT) posted a higher trade deficit for May 2017 at $642 million, mainly due to increasing imports as compared to its exports.

Argentina’s (FM) consumer confidence saw a huge drop in June 2017, as Argentinians are highly unsatisfied with the austerity measures President Macri’s government has adopted.

Argentina’s economy expanded in 1Q17 after consecutive contractions over the last three quarters.

The Markit Brazil Manufacturing PMI rose to 52 in May 2017 compared to 50.1 in April 2017.

The Brazilian real dropped ~2% in May 2017 amid the country’s ongoing political instability.

The leading economic index in Argentina rose 3.0% in May 2017 compared to 0.70% in April 2017.

Colombia’s (ICOL) GDP grew 1.1% year-over-year in 1Q17, lower than its 1.6% expansion in 1Q16.

According to Peru’s Ministry of Economy and Finance, the El Niño–related infrastructure damages were close to $4 billion.

Chile’s economy grew 0.1% on a year-over-year basis in 1Q17, lower than the 0.5% expansion in 1Q16.

Copper is famous for its unpredictable supply, and analysts covering copper build a “disruption allowance” into their estimates.

Buying activity in Brazil has experienced its strongest growth in the last three years, and the rate of job cuts remained at its lowest point over the last couple of years.

The Mexican economy expanded 0.6% in 1Q17, beating market expectations. Exports and private spending have continued to support growth in Mexico this year.

The social and economic crisis in Venezuela has resulted in food and medicine shortages, a crippled economy, record high inflation, and falling oil prices.

Chile had been known as the best-managed economy in Latin America—until recently.

Trump’s anti-trade rhetoric has caused Mexican officials to consider working toward reducing the country’s reliance on the US.

As the third-largest economy in Latin America, Colombia is expected to recover from its subdued growth of ~2% in 2016—its lowest figure since 2009.

Peru is one of the fastest-growing economies among emerging markets.

With the new government under the leadership of President Mauricio Macri, Argentina seems to be doing much better.

Economic activity in Brazil (EWZ) has been slow as it tries to emerge from its deep recession in 2016. But consumer and business confidence is improving.

Brazil (EWZ) is expected to see a reversal of the downward trend in its economic growth in 2017, mostly with the help of rising commodity prices and improvements in exports.

After the election of Donald Trump, the iShares MSCI Brazil Capped ETF (EWZ) slipped.

Donald Trump’s win in the 2016 US presidential election wasn’t good news for Mexico (EWW). The Mexican peso fell more than 10% on November 9, 2016.

Donald Trump’s win in the 2016 US presidential election isn’t good news for Mexico’s economy. Trump’s protectionist intentions could hamper the Mexican economy.

In October, China imported 290,000 metric tons of unwrought copper and copper products—a yearly fall of more than 31%. Imports have fallen for seven months.

Equity markets in BRIC countries mostly rose. Only Russia (RSX) posting a small decline in October.

Duke Energy (DUK) is the second-largest utility by market capitalization. It will report its 3Q16 financial results on November 4, 2016.

China isn’t self-sufficient when it comes to its copper needs. While copper mining is concentrated in Latin America, more than half of the world’s copper is consumed in Asia.

The IMF expects the economy of Brazil to fall 3.3% in 2016, following its 3.8% decline in 2015.

The impact of moderating copper demand is visible in China’s copper imports. China’s refined copper imports have now fallen month-over-month for five consecutive months.

Brazil’s performance in the 2016 Rio Olympics and worldwide speculation about a Fed rate hike might have a role to play in the country’s stock market performance in fiscal 2016.

In August, China imported 350,000 metric tons of unwrought copper and copper products. This is similar to the imports in the same month last year.

Chile (ECH) continues to be the lowest-risk country in Latin America (ILF). It’s one of the best-evaluated economies in its region.

Investor sentiment with respect to Latin American economies has definitely been changing since the beginning of the year.

Hedge funds assets invested in emerging markets rose by $4.7 billion in the second quarter to end 2Q16 at a total of $189.8 billion.

The sharp rise in global liquidity conditions has been channeled mainly into emerging market (EEM) economies.

Since the rate hike by the Fed in December 2015, Banco de Mexico has raised rates three times totaling 125 basis points.

Latin American markets were trading lower on August 22. They took cues from a fall in commodity and crude prices globally.

China isn’t self-sufficient when it comes to raw material needs. It’s the world’s largest copper consumer.

Latin American markets were trading higher on August 8—taking cues from a rise in commodity and crude prices globally.

Colombia’s central bank increased the benchmark interest rates for the 11th consecutive meeting by 25 basis points to bring the rate to 7.8%.

The recent surge in soybean prices can coincide with the expectation of a strong El Niño effect, damaging the soya crops. In 1998 and 2010, the El Niño effect led to a surge in soybean (SOYB) prices.

As Latin America’s largest country in terms of population and land size, Brazil (EWZ) is becoming a key player among the emerging economies,

Latin American markets were trading lower on July 21—taking cues from a fall in commodity prices globally. Crude prices continued a declining trend.

The IMF looks at two risk scenarios for estimating the growth forecasts in case of increased risks. The two new scenarios are “downside” and “severe.”

The IMF cut its global economic growth forecasts, according to the latest IMF World Economic Output Update dated July 19. The cut in forecasts was expected.

China isn’t self-sufficient when it comes to raw materials. When it comes to copper imports, it’s the largest importer of copper ores, anodes, and refined copper.

The Latin American (ILF) (EWW) economy contracted in the second half of 2015. The fourth quarter registered the biggest fall in six years.

In many Latin American (ILF) (ECH) countries, higher growth and development have been accompanied by loss of competitiveness and a decline in productivity.

World Bank data reveal that since 2011, more than 60 million people in Latin America have opened bank and mobile money accounts.

Statista data show that the mobile penetration rate in Latin America reached a new high of about 126% in 2015.

Changing demographics in Latin America are driving innovations. Young people, which account for 25% of the total population, are more likely to accept innovation.

The central bank of Colombia increased interest rates on June 22, 2016, by 25 basis points to 7.5%, which was in line with expectations. This was its tenth consecutive hike in benchmark rates.

The banking sector in Chile got a boost as Banco Santander Chile (BSAC) and Banco De Chile (BCH) rose by more than 1% on June 17.

In May, China imported 430,000 metric tons of unwrought copper and copper products. Although imports fell 4.4%, they have risen more than 18% YoY.

Among the Latin-America–focused ETFs, the iShares MSCI Brazil Capped ETF (EWZ) fell 2.5% on May 23, which was in sync with the fall in the real.

Brazil (EWZ) (BRZU) is a favorite emerging market (EEM) (VWO) (EDC) for Mark Mobius. According to Mobius, there are tremendous opportunities in Brazil.

If Dilma Rousseff is impeached by the Senate, Michel Temer will head the government until 2018 before the next election.

Several LatAm–focused funds have posted high double-digit returns in 2016. Those invested in Brazilian stocks have outperformed those focused on Mexico.

The Brazilian BM&F Bovespa SA and the Mexican IPC index fell 0.07% and 0.26%, respectively.

In an interview with Bloomberg Markets Middle East, Mark Mobius stated that he is continuing to put money into Brazil.

Political upheaval is hardly anything to cheer about in theory, but it can bring optimism, as Brazil’s financial markets have shown in 2016.

In the current situation, when the question arises about investment in emerging markets (EEM) (EDC), investors tend to think about the Chinese economy.

The head of Latin America economics research at Goldman Sachs (GS), has clearly outlined the factors responsible for the economic recession in Brazil (EWZ).

Latin American currencies were trading on a higher note on April 29 due to negative growth in the US Dollar Index and a dovish stance by Fed policymakers.

Of the 23 analysts tracking Duke Energy, five analysts have given it a “buy” recommendation, and 18 analysts have given it a “hold” recommendation.

Duke Energy (DUK) estimates that its regulatory return on equity could meet or exceed its 2015 levels of nearly 10% in all its operational states.

SAP stated that the lack of political and economic stability in Latin America (ILF) contributed to its “slower than anticipated” performance in fiscal 1Q16.

Latin America, especially Brazil, weighed heavily on IBM’s fiscal 1Q16 results. The Americas and EMEA (Europe, the Middle East, and Africa) failed to report any growth in fiscal 1Q16.

Brazil’s inflation rate slowed for the second straight month in March. The annual inflation rose by 9.4%—compared to 10.4% in the previous month.

The iShares MSCI Brazil Capped ETF (EWZ) is the most frequently traded ETF that invests in Brazilian equities. The fund’s total returns for 1Q16 stood at 28%.

In an email interview with Bloomberg, Mohamed El-Erian said, “Brazil has an enormous potential, absolutely enormous. What is missing is the political context that enables sustained policy implementation.