BTC iShares Gold Trust

Gold (IAU) (GLD) prices usually have a strong negative correlation with the US dollar (UUP). Gold, like other commodities, is denominated in the dollar.

When the Federal Reserve chair, Janet Yellen, testified to Congress on February 11, she affirmed the Fed’s consideration of negative interest rates. Under a negative interest rate scenario, investors would pay interest to the bank for holding their money.

Why Gold’s Resilience Continues in July Following the June 23 Brexit vote when the UK chose to withdraw from the European Union, bond yields fell to record lows and gold rallied to two-year highs, reaching $1,375 per ounce on July 6. In the US, subsequent strong economic results in manufacturing, retail sales, and housing created […]

The CBOE Volatility Index suddenly rose 6.0% on November 9, 2016, after it was clear that Trump had unexpectedly clinched the election.

India and China, the two largest consumers of gold, make up about 50% of gold’s global demand. Gold is treated more as a commodity in these two countries.

Although not considered safe haven assets, in the current context of high geopolitical risk and consequently volatility, investors could consider investing in sectors like energy and large cap companies.

India and China remain the top two consumers of gold (IAU) and silver (SLV).

Precious metals saw an upward swing on Tuesday, November 1, 2016. The rise in precious metals was most likely due to the slight fall of the US dollar.

Mining stocks with a higher correlation to precious metals will likely be impacted more by global indicators that influence precious metals.

Janet Yellen, chair of the Federal Reserve, noted that the Fed is planning to change the annual stress tests it gives to US banks. The test results would reveal whether the banks can withstand a massive financial crisis.

Besides the attack on Syria, the latest rise in gold was also backed by dampened expectations that the Fed will raise interest rates soon.

As gold rose initially, the revival in the equity markets shadowed the precious metal. Silver maintained its gains. It’s used as an industrial metal.

As of April 18, 2017, gold and silver have risen 12% and 14.8%, respectively, year-to-date.

For Kinross’s fiscal 2016 production guidance, the grade reduction at the Kupol and Chirano mines was considered.

The fraction of total gold output held by central banks around the world has continued to decrease over the last decade and a sharp reversal in this trend is unlikely.

The iShares Silver Trust and the iShares Gold Trust have gained 2.9% and 0.91%, respectively, in the past five days, likely due to the precious metal rebound.

Gold prices gained 1.71% YTD (year-to-date)—despite the US Dollar Index increasing by almost 9% YTD. Prices are in a long-term downtrend.

Gold prices (GLD) recorded their first weekly gain last week after six weeks of continued losses. What changed?

Kinross Gold (KGC) produced 671,267 GEOs (gold equivalent ounces) in 2Q16, which represents a 1% YoY (year-over-year) rise but a sequential decrease of 2%.

COMEX-traded gold futures for June delivery rose marginally by 0.19% on May 18 and closed at $1,227.60 per ounce. Gold prices extended their rally on Monday.

Gold April futures contracts are trading in a downward trending channel. Gold prices settled just above the key support on March 9, 2015.

This series analyzes gold prices and market fundamentals. June gold futures trading on the COMEX slightly declined by 0.02% on May 22, 2015.

COMEX-traded gold futures for June delivery fell marginally by 0.24% and closed at $1,190.30 per ounce on Wednesday, May 6, 2015. Gold prices were down.

COMEX-traded June gold futures fell marginally by 0.50% and closed at $1,183 per ounce on May 11. Gold prices traded almost flat—led by weak Asian demand.

Gold prices for April futures contracts continued trading in a downward trend. Prices broke the key support level on March 10, 2015.

If you’re preparing your portfolio for the short term, the allocation to cash should be high. As the horizon increases, allocation to cash should go down.

Some investors seem to prefer putting their money in gold lately. The World Gold Council is optimistic on gold due to negative interest rate policies of major economies.

June gold futures trading on COMEX increased slightly by 0.01% on May 15, 2015, and settled at $1,225.30 per ounce. Gold prices rose for the fourth day.

Ray Dalio increased Bridgewater Associates’ stake in the SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) and the iShares Gold Trust ETF (IAU).

Kinross’s Phase 1 at Tasaist should increase mill throughput capacity from 8,000 to 12,000 tons per day, reduce operating costs, and increase production.

Newmont Mining has a valuation multiple of 8.6x, with an expected EBITDA margin of 40% for 2017. At the start of 2016, it was trading at a multiple of 6.6x.

Goldcorp (GG) has significantly improved its liquidity YoY (year-over-year) from $1.9 billion in 3Q14 to $3.3 billion in 3Q15.

According to a survey by Bank of America Merrill Lynch, 31.0% of respondents see a trade war as the biggest tail risk for the markets, up from 25.0% in May.

Lower gold prices impact gold mining stocks. The US Dollar Index appreciated against the major currencies and increased by 0.06% on May 7, 2015.

COMEX-traded gold futures contracts for June delivery settled at $1,186.50 per ounce on Wednesday, May 27, 2015. Gold prices declined for the fourth session.

The gold-silver ratio was trading at 78.7 on Monday, April 11, 2016. The gold-silver ratio is trading close to its 100-day moving average.

Gold June futures contracts trading in COMEX rose by 0.54% and settled at $1,193.20 per ounce on May 5. Prices gained as the US Dollar Index depreciated.

June gold futures trading in COMEX settled at $1,192.40 per ounce on May 12, 2015. The increase in gold prices was supported by the depreciating dollar.

Gold saw such a surge in its price that the money flowing into funds like the SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) and the iShares Gold Trust (IAU) increased exponentially.

On March 6, 2015, gold prices hit a three-month low and settled just above the important support level.

June gold futures contracts increased marginally by 0.19% and closed at $1,188.80 per ounce on May 28, 2015. Gold prices increased marginally.

Among major gold (GLD)(IAU) mining and gold streaming companies (GOAU), Wheaton Precious Metals (WPM) is analysts’ favorite and has received the most “buy” recommendations at 91%.

This is the fifth up day for gold prices in the last ten days. Prices increased by 0.72% more on the average up days than on the average down days over the last ten trading sessions.

COMEX-traded gold futures for June delivery increased slightly by 0.17% on May 20 and closed at $1,208.70 per ounce—led by the delayed interest rate hike.

During the past week, average hourly earnings, excluding the farming industry, were below analysts’ expectation of 0.10%.

The US Dollar Index gained against the basket of currencies on April 23, 2015. The index gained on the consensus of the improving US economy.

Federal funds futures, which are used to hedge the interest rate risk, are factoring in a maximum of one interest rate hike by the end of 2016.

Gold had a mediocre performance in yesterday’s trade. Gold prices increased by 2.24% YTD—led by increased demand from India.

June gold futures declined by 1.70% on May 19, 2015, and settled at $1,206.70 per ounce. Gold prices declined for the first time in the last five days.

While I still believe that the precious metal should be a part of a diversified portfolio, I see four reasons why gold prices are likely to decline going forward.

One of the dominant financial trends of the past decade has been a move by investors out of actively managed funds and into passively managed index funds or exchange traded funds (ETFs).

The uncertain global environment created after the Brexit vote made investors hope for a perpetual low rate environment. The prospect of further easing from central banks in the developed markets has spurred strong demand for government debt.

Agnico Eagle Mines (AEM) and Goldcorp (GG) check almost all of the right boxes for senior gold miners. That’s probably why they’re trading at a higher multiple than their peers.

The best bet is to go for gold miners with healthy balance sheets, increasing production profiles, low costs, and good cash flows.

With selling pressure removed, normal gold demand trends may re-emerge Historically, there is a seasonal pattern to gold prices dependent on physical demand trends. Often, there is weakness in the summer when jewelry demand, primarily from China and India, is low and trading volumes decline. Seasonal strength often occurs from August to January, beginning with […]

Gold prices tend to rise in the fourth quarter of the calendar year. Gold prices have gained an unannualized ~3.8% in the fourth quarter.

Gold prices edged higher once again on Friday, February 3, 2017. On February 2, gold touched $1,219.40 per ounce, its best price since November 2016.

The US dollar and precious metals are usually inversely related to each other.

EM countries become less reliant on short-term foreign capital funding, as evident in improved current account balances and a shift toward longer-term foreign direct investment.

Research shows that another cause for why wage growth continues to stay low is that employers are reluctant to reduce wages.

While Trump has continued to avoid giving specifics on his future economic policies, gold has begun to rise again. Gold hit a seven-week high on January 12.

Gold and other precious metals plummeted on Friday. Gold, silver, platinum, and palladium fell by 0.54%, 0.42%, 1.4%, and 0.7%, respectively.

Gold prices retreated following the rise in the US dollar index. Gold had been gaining traction earlier last week following a dovish report by Janet Yellen, the US Federal Reserve chairperson.

On March 3, when IAU stopped trading, its price was $12.17 per share. Later the price climbed to $12.37. IAU has risen about 18% on a year-to-date basis.

US Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen delivered a dovish statement about further rate hikes. Yellen expressed concerns over global economic growth.

On June 2, 2016, Jefferies downgraded Newmont Mining (NEM) from “buy” to “hold” due to a near-term price risk from gold and its relatively higher valuation following its strong price performance year-to-date.

Ineffective monetary policies creating potential future issues Policy makers seem to be focused on solutions to previous problems without realizing that excesses are going to create additional issues. For example, an odd thing happened after Brexit—stocks ignored the risks Brexit posed to the global economy and the S&P 500® [1. S&P 500® Index (S&P 500) consists […]

Goldman Sachs (GS) has long been bullish on gold. In March 2018, the bank turned positive on gold (IAU) for the first time in more than five years. It’s since been advising investors to turn defensive due to its forecast of increased risk, recommending that investors go for high-quality stocks and gold.

Following its sell-off, gold’s role in a portfolio is back in focus. With investors asking if now is the time to buy or sell the precious metal, Russ K weighs in with his view.

Investors unnerved by the sell-off are asking if this is the time to sell, while those who have been waiting for an opportunity to get into the market are asking if this is the right time to buy. Here’s my take.

Historically, a little gold has improved a portfolio. What we do know, however, is that at least historically there has been some benefit in holding small amounts of gold — around 1% to 2% — in a portfolio.

There is often a debate among academics, financial gurus, asset managers, and advisors as to the place for non-traditional assets in a portfolio.

Gold certainly can be an inflation hedge, and it has worked in the past. Obviously, one of the reasons gold has been weak of late is that people are becoming less concerned about inflation.

Exposure to gold is also a useful strategy to take advantage of the negative real-rate environment. Typically, gold is a beneficiary when real interest rates become negative as this lowers the opportunity cost of holding the metal.

Gold (GLD) (IAU) has declined by almost 8% in the last 12 months. Gold usually does well when the equity markets (IVV) are troubled. Gold has an inverse relationship with the U.S. dollar (or UUP). When the U.S. dollar weakens, investors turn to gold for value storage.

To be sure, it’s not unreasonable that gold and silver (along with platinum) are often lumped together in the precious metal basket.

Other commodities have suffered as well: Most agricultural commodities are down between 5% and 10% year-to-date, and oil prices have slid on less angst over Iraq and the Middle East.

Gold, a classic safe-haven asset, remains well below its spring highs, and certain defensive sectors — notably utilities, telecommunications and health care — have struggled month-to-date.

Regardless of the Fed’s monetary policy stance, increases in the rate of inflation are likely to push bond yields higher for all maturities, whether or not they’re investment-grade bonds or high-yield bonds.

In addition to the potential headwind from higher real rates, it’s also not clear that either metal is that mispriced. Valuing commodities is notoriously difficult, as there are no cash flows.

Billionaire investor Jeffrey Gundlach had positioned himself expecting Bremain to pass. Gundlach, however, sold off his newly acquired European stock positions before the Brexit results impacted the Market.

Let’s take a look at some of the reasons why RAAX maintains a bullish or bearish position on certain asset classes.

RAAX remains fully invested across commodities, natural resource equities, and MLPs. As they were at launch, the largest weightings remain in diversified commodities (30%), gold bullion (20%), and agribusiness equities (20%).

Central banks have been net buyers of gold (SGOL) since the beginning of the financial crisis of 2008.

Mark Mobius endorsed gold. He predicted that gold (GLD) might top $1,500, which came true. The commodity traded at $1,514.5 at 8:45 AM ET.

Ray Dalio mentioned in a LinkedIn post on Wednesday that it’s important for investors to explore the market paradigm in which they’re currently operating.

Gold prices have seen a change in fortunes over the last month or so.

Standard Chartered precious metals analyst Suki Cooper is very positive about gold’s price outlook. As reported by CNBC, she said, “There’s a lot more interest in gold on a widespread basis. It’s not just tactical investors or ETF holders. it’s broad based.”

Credit Suisse (CS) is positive about gold prices (IAU) in 2019. The bank expects gold prices to average $1,280 per ounce in 2019.

JPMorgan Chase (JPM) thinks that gold prices (GLD) should go higher. Right now, the Fed is patient on rate hikes.

Barron’s reported that Deutsche Bank (DB) analyst Chris Terry has increased gold’s (GLD) (IAU) target price to $1,350 per ounce for 2019.

The Federal Reserve’s two main objectives are stabilizing prices and maximizing employment.

Barrick Gold (GOLD) reported AISC of $788 per ounce and a cost of sales of $980 per ounce in the fourth quarter.

To achieve production growth in the long term, gold miners (GDX) (GDXJ) have to replace every ounce they take out of the ground.

The Federal Reserve has two main objectives: price stability and maximizing employment.

When it comes to investing in stocks, Berkshire Hathway’s (BRK.A) chair, Warren Buffett, and Bridgewater’s founder, Ray Dalio, have similar advice.

According to the World Gold Council, holdings in gold-backed ETFs and similar products rose by 69 tons in 2018, equivalent to $3.4 billion worth of inflows.

According to the gold demand trend released by the World Gold Council on January 31, annual gold demand increased by 4% in 2018.

Gold prices rose ~1.4% to a seven-month high on January 25. Gold prices briefly breached the psychologically important $1,300 per ounce mark.

Jeffrey Gundlach said during Barron’s 2019 Roundtable that “Gold and commodities broadly should benefit this year.”