CYS Investments Inc

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  • uploads///Part  Q
    Earnings Report

    H.B. Fuller’s Engineering Adhesives Segment Performance in 3Q16

    H.B. Fuller’s (FUL) Engineering Adhesives segment, a new operating segment as of 1Q16, reported 3Q16 revenue of $61.4 million, or 11.9% of the company’s total revenue.

    By Peter Neil
  • uploads///Fed funds dot graph Jun
    Financials

    FOMC Meeting Looms Large This Week

    The FOMC meets on July 26 and 27. Two weeks ago, it was a non-event. The market has been raising its estimates for the federal funds rate by the end of 2016.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Bottom Performer
    Macroeconomic Analysis

    Why Were CSAL and CYS the Bottom REIT Performers in Mid-July?

    Recently, on June 29, 2015, CSAL’s stock price fell by 7%. The move came with pretty good selling volume.

    By Arthur Penn
  • uploads///FHFA HPI Cumulative
    Financials

    The FHFA House Price Index is within 5% of its peak

    While most indices showed the housing market bottoming out around February 2012, the FHFA House Price Index showed it bottoming out around May 2011.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Fed Assets
    Financials

    The Fed maintains its policy on reinvesting QE assets

    The Fed’s decision to reinvest QE assets in the markets affects REITs. It keeps a bid under TBAs, and it supports MBS values in general.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///DQs by State
    Real Estate

    Why State Laws Matter For Home Price Appreciation

    Borrower behavior is heavily influenced by consumer protection laws—particularly at the state level. States that require a judicial review of foreclosure activity tend to have higher delinquency rates.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Fed Assets
    Financials

    Quantitative Easing Is Over, But What About The Fed Balance Sheet?

    The “elephant in the room” at the Fed is that rates need to return to more normal historical levels at some point. This will be in the context of a massive Fed balance sheet. This creates issues on many different levels.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///MBA Refinance Index
    Financials

    Are lower rates enough to trigger another refinance wave?

    The increase in rates has basically put prepayment worries on the back burner for REITs. The lack of a reaction in the refinance index on the back of a drop in rates could mean we’re finally seeing prepayment burnout. This would be good news for REITs.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///foreclosure heat map
    Real Estate

    Why state laws matter to nonagency REITs

    Real estate prices are a bigger driver of nonagency real estate investment trusts. Rising real estate prices also help reduce stress on the financial system.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads/// year bond yield historical
    Financials

    Why you should think about the direction of interest rates

    Mortgage REIT investors have finally gotten a taste of what interest rate risk looks like over the past year. For most of the past 30 years, bonds have been a one-way bet.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///CYS Dividend
    Financials

    Mark-to-market losses force CYS Investments to cut its dividend

    This also means a REIT will experience a volatile dividend. Most corporations loathe cutting their dividend because of the message it sends to Wall Street, so volatile dividends are generally rare. For REITs, they’re a fact of life.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///CYS Dividend
    Financials

    CYS Investments: An important mid-sized agency mortgage REIT

    CYS Investments (CYS) is a diversified agency mortgage REIT that invests all across the agency mortgage-backed security (or MBS) space.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///foreclosure heat map
    Financials

    Why state foreclosure laws matter for REITs like CYS Investments

    The states with the biggest foreclosure inventory are the states with judicial foreclosure processes—New York, New Jersey, and Florida.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///MBA Refinance Index
    Financials

    Refinance applications fall in spite of lower rates

    The Mortgage Bankers Association’s (or MBA) refinance index fell 0.3% (from 1,297.5 to 1,293) even as the bond market rallied 4 basis points.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///foreclosure heat map
    Financials

    Why state foreclosure laws affect home price appreciation

    In the judicial states—particularly New York, New Jersey, and Connecticut—we’re seeing much lower home price appreciation— in fact, there’s very little residential construction at all

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads/// year bond yield historical
    Financials

    Why you should pay attention to the long interest rate cycle

    Mortgage REIT investors have finally received a taste of what interest rate risk looks like over the past year. For most of the past 30 years, bonds have been a one-way bet.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///CYS Dividend
    Financials

    Why CYS Investments maintained its dividend in 2nd quarter 2014

    Most corporations loathe cutting their dividend because of the message it sends to Wall Street, so volatile dividends are generally rare. For REITs, they’re a fact of life.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///CYS Leverage Ratio
    Financials

    Why CYS Investments maintained its leverage ratio in Q2 2014

    Because there’s no risk of principal loss—not to be confused with mark-to-market issues—the rate of return for mortgage-backed securities is generally low.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///DQs by State
    Financials

    Mortgage delinquencies are still concentrated in judicial states

    Borrower behavior is heavily influenced by consumer protection laws, particularly at the state level. States that have a judicial review of foreclosure activity tend to have higher delinquency rates.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///HARP Refinances
    Financials

    Why the HARP refis dry up as rates rise, lowering prepay speeds

    HARP was designed to help people who wanted to stay in their home and who had adjustable-rate mortgages where they wouldn’t be able to afford the payment once the mortgage adjusted upward.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///MBA Refinance Index
    Financials

    Refinances fall as prepayment risk is much lower than 1 year ago

    The Refinance Index fell 3% (from 1,598 to 1,548), as rates rose 15 basis points. Refinances have been dropping like a stone.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///HARP Refinances
    Financials

    HARP refinances drop off as interest rates for mortgages increase

    HARP refinances fell to 30,000 in December from 38,700 in November.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Case Schiller
    Financials

    Case-Shiller index is still posting double-digit annual increases

    The Case-Shiller index is the most widely quoted index of real estate values. Real estate values are big drivers of consumer confidence and spending.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///FHFA House Price Index
    Financials

    FHFA House Price index is within 9% of April 2005’s peak levels

    The 7.6% year-over-year gain was the second highest since mid-2006, and it puts the index back at April 2005 levels. The rate of price appreciation appears to be slowing.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///MBA Refinance Index
    Financials

    Will Mel Watt save the day for originators as refinances rise?

    The Refinance Index rose 2% (from 1,602 to 1,635), even though rates were up 10 basis points. The bond market has been readjusting.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Case Schiller
    Financials

    Case-Shiller’s biggest gain in 8 years is good for non-agency REITs

    The index increased 1.03% month-over-month and 13.3% year-over-year. Prices have risen the most in the areas that were hit the hardest.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///MBA Refinance Index
    Financials

    The Mortgage Bankers Association Refinance Index turns down again

    The Refinance Index fell 6.5% (from 2,76 to 1,941) even though rates fell. But the week was shortened by the Veteran’s Day holiday.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///LPS prepayment speeds
    Financials

    Why smart prepayment analysis means higher dividends

    Refinancing activity affects prepayment speeds, which are a critical driver of mortgage REIT returns.

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///MBA Refinance Index
    Financials

    Prepayment burnout? Refinance activity falls despite drop in rates

    The MBA Refinance Index increases again after the Fed maintained its pace of QE (quantitative easing) The Refinance Index fell 1.3% (from 2,061 from 2,034) in spite of the bond market rally on the back of a solution to the shutdown. The bond market has been readjusting to the idea that we may see the […]

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///MBA Refinance Index
    Financials

    Refinances increase as interest rates fall after the Fed surprise

    The MBA Refinance Index increases again after the Fed maintains its pace of QE (quantitative easing) The Refinance Index rose 3% (to 1,947 from 1,889) after the Fed decided to maintain its current pace of asset purchases. The bond market has been re-adjusting to the idea that we may see the end of quantitative easing soon, and […]

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///FHFA home price index
    Financials

    FHFA Home Price Index rises in June, good for non-agency REITs

    The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) House Price Index The FHFA House Price Index differs from the other house price indices like Case-Shiller and Radar Logic in that it only looks at houses with mortgages guaranteed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. This means all the home prices are below the conforming threshold, which is $417,000. It […]

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///HARP Refinances
    Financials

    HARP refinances fall in Q2 as rates increase, effect on REITs

    The Home Affordable Refinance Program permits homeowners with negative equity in their homes to refinance at today’s lower rates The Home Affordable Refinance Program was instituted in 2009 to allow homeowners with negative equity to take advantage of today’s low interest rate environment. Before HARP, banks wouldn’t lend more than the home’s value. In real-estate […]

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///MBA Refinance Index
    Financials

    Weekly mortgage applications review (Part 4)

    Back to Part 3 The MBA Refinance Index falls for the eighth straight week The Refinance Index fell to 0.1% (to 2,247 from 2,245)  in the context of a volatile week in the bond market. The bond market has been re-adjusting to the idea that we may see the end of quantitative easing in fall. That said, […]

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Fed Unemployment Forecast
    Financials

    The Fed’s Humphrey-Hawkins testimony and its implications for REITs (Part 3)

    Back to Part 2 The Fed’s comments on monetary policy The Fed received a number of complaints regarding the move in interest rates over the past couple of months. Many members of Congress were alarmed at the increase in rates, and many worried that it would dampen the recovery. Bernanke referred to the June comments […]

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///MBA Refinance Index
    Financials

    MBA Refinance index falls; prepayment worries fade into the background

    The MBA Refinance Index is an important index that forecasts mortgage activity and prepayments The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) Index of Refinance Activity measures application activity, not loans made. The Mortgage Bankers Association samples roughly 75% of all mortgage activity in the U.S., and its indices are key indicators for the real estate finance market […]

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///MBA Refinance Index
    Financials

    Mortgage Bankers Association Refinance Index falls, REITs prepayment worries fade

    The MBA Refinance Index is an important index that forecasts mortgage activity and prepayments The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) Index of Refinance Activity measures application activity, not loans made. The Mortgage Bankers Association samples roughly 75% of all mortgage activity in the U.S., and its indices are key indicators for the real estate finance market […]

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///FHFA House Price Index
    Financials

    April Federal Housing Finance Agency House Price Index rose 7.4%, good for investors

    The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) House Price Index The FHFA House Price Index differs from the other house price indices like Case-Schiller and Radar Logic in that it only looks at houses with mortgages guaranteed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. This means all the home prices are below the conforming threshold, which is $417,000. […]

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///MBA Refinance Index
    Financials

    Why REITs may suffer as the MBA Refinance Index falls even as mortgage rates fall

    The MBA Refinance Index is an important index that forecasts mortgage activity and prepayments The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) Index of Refinance Activity measures application activity, not loans made. The Mortgage Bankers Association samples roughly 75% of all mortgage activity in the U.S., and its indices are key indicators for the real estate finance market […]

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///MBA Refinance Index
    Financials

    Refinances tick up as bond market sell-off takes a breather

    The MBA Refinance Index is an important index to forecast mortgage activity and prepayments The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) Index of Refinance Activity measures application activity, not loans made. The Mortgage Bankers Association samples roughly 75% of all mortgage activity in the U.S., and its indices are key indicators for the real estate finance market […]

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///MBA Refinance Index
    Financials

    MBA Refinance Index continues to fall

    The MBA Refinance Index is an important index to forecast mortgage activity and prepayments The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) Index of Refinance Activity measures application activity, not loans made. The Mortgage Bankers Association samples roughly 75% of all mortgage activity in the U.S., and its indices are key indicators for the real estate finance market […]

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///Case Schiller
    Financials

    S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index rises in March

    The Standard and Poor’s/Case-Shiller index of real estate prices increased 10.9% year-over-year in March, hinting that the real estate market bottomed around this time last year. The Case-Shiller index The Case-Shiller index is the most widely quoted index of real estate values. Real estate values are big drivers of consumer confidence and spending, and, therefore, […]

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///MBA Refinance Index
    Financials

    Mortgage Bankers Association Refinance Index falls 8% in the week ending May 10

    The MBA Refinance Index is an important index to forecast mortgage activity and prepayments The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) index of refinance activity measures application activity, not loans made. The Mortgage Bankers Association samples roughly 75% of all mortgage activity in the U.S., and its indices are key indicators for the real estate finance market […]

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
  • uploads///MBA Refinance Index
    Financials

    Mortgage Bankers Association Refi Index rises in the week ending May 3

    The MBA Refinance Index is an important index to forecast mortgage activity and prepayments The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) index of refinance activity measures application activity, not loans made. The Mortgage Bankers Association samples roughly 75% of all mortgage activity in the U.S., and its indices are key indicators for the real estate finance market […]

    By Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA
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