David Ashworth

The S&P 500 index, tracked by the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and the iShares Core S&P 500 ETF (IVV), rose 8.3% in October.

The JPMorgan Intrepid European Fund’s assets were spread across 79 holdings as of December 2015.

Since the rate hike by the Fed in December 2015, Banco de Mexico has raised rates three times totaling 125 basis points.

In evaluating the FOMC’s performance over the past three years, Kocherlakota mentioned that the unemployment rate fell to 5.6%.

The G20 finance ministers and central bank governors emphasized the role of fiscal policy in building confidence and supporting domestic demand.

US non-farm payrolls rose by 295,000 in February 2015 from a downwardly revised January number of 239,000 compared to 257,000 reported earlier.

2016 has mostly been about macro trends, thus presenting a different set of challenges for active fund managers who mostly focus on companies rather than economic and sector trends.

Two rallies after the FOMC statement led the NASDAQ Composite Index to its highest closing in 15 years, just below its all-time high of 5,048.62 in 2000.

Potential new developments from the Fed include a suggestion by the subcommittee on communications that median values of policymakers’ projections be published.

The US Federal Reserve met on September 16 and 17 in one of the most anticipated monetary policy meetings in recent memory.

The health of the US labor market is possibly the primary reason the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) had confidence to raise interest rates in December 2015

In his June 2016 investment outlook, Bill Gross stated that “credit risk or credit ‘carry’ offers little reward relative to potential losses.”

US stocks didn’t have a great start last week. Reports emanating from China drove US markets down sharply, but they rebounded the next day when Microsoft (MSFT) helped them bounce back.

Donald Trump has been vociferous about cutting taxes. He intends to reduce the current seven tax brackets to three.

US equity markets gained in the week ended April 24, 2015. But the week was all about the NASDAQ, which gained 3.2%.

If spreads are rising or widening, credit conditions can be assumed to be worsening. Spreads widen when growth is slow and economic conditions worsen.

Kocherlakota gave a presentation at the annual American Economic Association conference. He was firmly in favor of letting the Fed be free in its decision making.

Rate cut transmissions by commercial banks, inflation, and monetary policy actions by the Fed will have the largest influence on India’s future.

Monetary policy normalization refers to two aspects: the federal funds rate and the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet.

New home sales jumped 11.6% in December from a month ago to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 481,000.

The January 2015 meeting minutes showed that several policymakers weren’t in favor of dropping “patience.” Changing the language is a big deal.

Consumer spending remained subdued in February. The harsh weather kept consumers indoors. Individuals used the gains from lower gasoline prices to boost their savings.

The Reserve Bank of India (or RBI) is India’s central bank. It maintained the status quo on its key rates in its fifth bi-monthly monetary policy statement. The statement was released on December 2, 2014.

The RBI had headroom to make a further rate reduction in August, but then the bank resisted, citing the rise in core inflation.

The Aberdeen Latin American Equity Fund Class A fell by 6.3% in September from August. But between September and October 28, the fund has risen by 6.0%.

The Matthews Japan Fund – Investor Class (MJFOX) fell 0.4% in December 2015 from the previous month. In the three- and six-month periods ended December 31, the fund rose 10.4% and fell 1.2%, respectively.

Cushing, Oklahoma WTI prices fell to $41.93 a barrel on August 17—the lowest since early March 2009. Iran flooding the market with its oil is one of the reasons for this fall.

Markets were disappointed by the weak retail sales report. Estimates for advance retail sales were $442.9 billion in December 2014.

The Board’s Consumer Confidence Index rose to 92.6 in December—compared to 91 in November. For November, the index was revised from an initially reported value of 88.7.

The financials sector continues to be the top-invested sector, with four of the 12 funds choosing it as their most preferred sector. However, the number of funds choosing financials is down from six in the previous quarter.

FLFAX fell 2.8% in November 2015 from a month prior. In the three- and six-month periods ended November 30, the fund fell 4.8% and 20.4%, respectively.

Kocherlakota asked “Should the fed funds rate target range be raised soon?” He thinks it will be a few years before PCE inflation returns to the target.

In the 12 months leading up to January, prices fell 0.1%, the first decline since October 2009. In December, consumer prices rose by 0.8% year-over-year.

The second estimate from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (or BEA) showed that gross domestic product (or GDP) growth for the US economy slowed to 2.2%.

The Franklin Growth Fund – Class A (FKGRX) fell 2.0% in December 2015 from a month ago.

A slowing global economy is also a worrying factor for Charles Evans. Companies with an export focus will hire fewer people if there are fewer orders.

The EP Latin America Fund Class A invests in companies that derive “at least 50% of its revenues or profits from business activities in Latin America.”

Things look fine for now Previously in this series, we discussed how mutual funds have a notably larger holding of corporate bonds at present than they had before the financial crisis of 2008. We’ve also talked about how regulatory changes could impact the role of banks as market makers. At the same time, the role […]

The addition of “at its next meeting” in the FOMC’s October statement has led market participants to believe that a rate hike may be effected in its December meeting.

US Treasury yields moved uniformly upwards across the yield curve in the week ended June 5, 2015.

The FOMC will meet for its next scheduled meeting on March 17–18, 2015. Markets will be watching for a change in the language of the FOMC’s forward guidance.

Investment-grade bond (AGG) funds saw net inflows of $1.53 billion in the week ending May 1, 2015.

Policymakers are now hinting toward a rate hike in June. But markets seem to be feeling otherwise.

On December 10, 2015, Third Avenue Management announced that redemptions were barred from the Third Avenue Focused Credit Fund (TFCVX) (TFCIX).

The Bank of England decided not to cut its interest rates to new record lows when it met on July 14, 2016. The country’s central bank was under pressure to act.

The Federal Reserve has toned down its expectations of US economic growth in 2016, given the state of the global economy. It remains quite confident on the domestic front, though, as projections for the unemployment rate have been reduced.

The JPMorgan Intrepid European Fund Class A has fallen 7.6% year-to-date, making it the worst performer in the group of 12 funds chosen for this review.

If you’re a moderate investor invested in high-yield bond mutual funds, you could consider moving some of your assets to investment grade funds (OPIGX).

In this series, we’ve reviewed seven LatAm-focused mutual funds (BDERX) in terms of their sectoral changes over the past year and the possible reasons for their performances in 2016.

The Hennessy Japan Fund (HJPNX) dived by 8.2% in September from the previous month—the worst performer in September among the nine funds we’re reviewing.

Inflation remains a concern for the Eurozone. The World Bank said that though deflation concerns have reduced in 2015, they have not gone away completely.

BlackRock is not upbeat about fixed income in 2016. It’s more optimistic about stocks than it is about bonds, specifically European and Japanese equities.

Most members of the FOMC want to move cautiously in regards to rate hikes. They expect the factors that are holding down growth to only give way slowly.

The EP Latin America Fund A (EPLAX) fell by 8.4% in August 2015, from July 2015—the second smallest decline among the eight funds in this review.

In this series, we have reviewed ten Europe-focused mutual funds in terms of their sectoral changes over the past year and the possible reasons for their performance in 2015.

Japanese housing starts rose in July 2015, but their pace slowed compared to a month ago. Housing starts rose by 7.4% in July compared to a year ago.

The Asia-Pacific region provides radically different investment opportunities in one region. It will be very hard for another region to provide the diversity of Asia-Pacific.

FDGRX’s core sectors are information technology, consumer discretionary, and healthcare. The first two sectors make up a little over 60% of the portfolio.

Euro Pacific Asset Management offers the EP Latin America Fund A (EPLAX), which aims for capital appreciation by investing “at least 80% of its net assets.”

Stanley Fischer expressed his views on the US economy at the G30 Annual International Banking Seminar on October 11. This came three days after the dovish minutes of the FOMC September meeting.

Geographical diversification allows your portfolio to keep earning returns in case your primary geography has not been doing well.

Most FOMC participants indicated that they preferred to consider a possible rate hike on a meeting-by-meeting basis—without providing any hints about the timing of a rate hike.

Mutual funds follow a bottom-up research approach. They focus on companies rather than macroeconomic and sector trends.

All passive funds have outpaced the actively managed LETRX in 1Q16. Picks from the information technology sector did the LETRX in.

Inflation represents a rise in the general price level in a country or region. The higher the inflation, the lower the quantum of a particular good that can be purchased.

In its recent update, the International Monetary Fund’s economic growth projections for the Eurozone, including Lithuania, are unchanged at 1.5% for 2015.

SHRAX is the only fund among nine that posted positive returns in just one of our five periods. It’s also the only fund that fell in the one-year period.

The Federal Open Market Committee’s June statement didn’t elicit a strong reaction in either direction from investment-grade bonds, especially not from Treasuries.

Europe-focused mutual fund investors should continue to watch developments on inflation in the region.

For financial year 2016–2017, the RBI forecasts the GVA growth at a 7.6% pace. This assumes that there aren’t any significant headwinds.

In an interview with Bloomberg Markets Middle East, Mark Mobius stated that he is continuing to put money into Brazil.

European stocks (VLKAY) (RENX) (RBS), like others across the world, have been whiplashed by volatility so far 2016.

Asia ex-Japan countries such as China and India saw poor equity market performance in 2015, but Indian equities could be back on track in the medium term.

The US leveraged loans market saw an allocation of ~$19.0 billion worth of senior loans across 22 transactions in the week to May 8.

The Epiphany FFV Latin America Fund Class A (ELAAX) is offered by Epiphany Funds with Trinity Fiduciary Partners serving as the investment advisor.

The Voya Japan TOPIX Index Portfolio fell by 6.7% in September 2015 from the previous month.

The T. Rowe Price Africa & Middle East Fund invests in between 50 and 80 companies, focusing on Kenya and South Africa, as well as Saudi Arabia and the UAE.

The BlackRock Latin America Fund A (MDLTX) surged 22.1% in the first four months of 2016, but it still emerged as a below-average performer among its peers.

The Russian economy is dependent on oil and gas exports. Because of this, looking at terms of trade for Russia is important.

Yield spreads between different maturity Treasury securities, when compared to historical trends, can indicate how the market views economic conditions.

In this series, we’ve reviewed eight Latin America–focused mutual funds (BDERX) in terms of their sectoral changes over the past year.

According to the March 2015 policy statement, policymakers now forecast only up to two rate hikes this year. This translates to a total rate hike of 50 basis points.

There are some important things to know when analyzing ESG issues. Unlike traditional analysis, there’s no particular outlined method for conducting ESG analysis.

In a report on the US Treasury market on October 15, 2014, the ten-year benchmark yield witnessed a 37 basis-point trading range.

The Vanguard European Stock Index Fund Investor Shares (VEURX) has fallen 3.2% year-to-date (or YTD). Let’s see why.

Early 2016 was not generous to the Wells Fargo Growth Fund – Class A (SGRAX), and the fund was a below-average performer until May. However, things have improved since then.

In an email interview with Bloomberg, Mohamed El-Erian said, “Brazil has an enormous potential, absolutely enormous. What is missing is the political context that enables sustained policy implementation.

If you want to invest in Malaysian equities, then the iShares MSCI Malaysia ETF (EWM) is the fund for you.

The RBI’s (Reserve Bank of India) move to reduce key interest rates in India in April was expected.

The Fed’s hawkish tone and repeated references to June as a possible candidate for a rate hike were unexpected by market participants.

The Latin America-focused mutual funds that have a lion’s share of their assets invested in companies from Mexico did better than those invested in Brazil.

Though India’s CPI inflation has come down, certain risk factors could cause it to rise again.

The BlackRock Latin America Fund Class A (MDLTX) has been the second-worst performer year-to-date among the seven funds chosen for this review.

Flows into investment-grade bond funds (LQD) were negative in the week ending June 17. This was the second consecutive week witnessing outflows.

Except for one fund (MIGFX), no other actively managed fund that we have reviewed in this series has been able to outperform the passively managed SPY.

Investment-grade bond yields usually follow cues from the Treasuries market. With a fall in Treasury yields, investment-grade corporate bond yields also fell.

Most of the large-cap mutual funds have the information technology sector as their top choice.

For investors who are accepting of losses incurred, it would be advisable to withdraw. For others, patience is likely the best bet.

Portugal’s bond yields have been diverging from the rest of Europe. The Bank of Portugal reassigned five of Novo Banco’s senior bonds to Banco Espirito Santo.

The BlackRock Latin America Fund – A (MDLTX) fell 5.2% in December 2015 from a month prior.